QB Tiers Ranking - You'll Never Guess Where Cam Newton's Ranked

[Carl Spackler]

9 hours ago, falconidae said:

Cam is not the most accurate passer in the NFL, doesn't matter how you filter it, he just isn't. Cam's actual completion % was 52.9. For him to be the most accurate QB would require that every single ball that wasn't complete was not his fault. That's just not possible.

Fahey loves him some strong armed QBs and it shows. He literally blames everybody else besides cam for every incompletion. 

Lets look at another source like Football outsiders, who also watch every play and judge it in its context

"passing plus-minus estimates how many passes a quarterback completed compared to what an average quarterback would have done, given the location of those passes"

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-passing-plus-minus

Cam was 31st, last among qualifiers.

In their DVOA and DYAR stats, cam was ranked 28th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

 

On long passes, 20 yards in air  from the LOS, ESPN splits has  cam as 16 of 62 for 2016, that's barely 25%. It's just not possible that the 46 incompletions were all someone else's fault.

It also means that, in Saca's earlier thread about cam's accuracy, Saca had gifs of almost every deep throw that cam completed last year. Those throws would look a lot less impressive if you had the gifs of the 46 incompletions as well.

 

Cam is a good QB, he had a rough year last year, it was hardly all his fault, but some of it was. He's not the most accurate QB by any standards. And he doesn't have to be, he had an incredible season in 2015. Difference in accuracy between 2016 and 2015 is 2 more completions a game in 2016.

Going to be interesting to see how cam does with the short passing game this year. I think he's going to struggle with it at first simply because he hasn't had time this offseason to practice it and all the new parts on offense haven't had time to gel.

[joeig3]

So glad ESPN picked up the writer of this article, Cian Fahey. All of his work is complete with more stats and unbiased criticism than any talking head or reporter out there by a mile. 

[thefuzz]

10 minutes ago, joeig3 said:

So glad ESPN picked up the writer of this article, Cian Fahey. All of his work is complete with more stats and unbiased criticism than any talking head or reporter out there by a mile. 

They will mute him soon enough.  That was one of my favorite things about him...his willingness to call out anyone on the football field at any time....ESPN typically doesn't go that route.

[falconidae]

11 hours ago, Carl Spackler said:

 

That doesn't change a thing I said.

 

[falconidae]

20 hours ago, Saca312 said:

@falconidae Football outsiders is a great building block, but even what they did isn't enough. What you quoted was their analysis on the plus/minus of completion percentage, which actually serves to hurt Cam even more and doesn't give the context necessary.

You can read up on the concept here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/2015-passing-plus-minus

What that particular formula accounts for is where the ball was thrown on the field and what would the average QB do instead. Basically, if you throw deep a lot, this formula will hurt you more, likewise if you throw short too much, this formula will deduct a little bit as well.

Effectively, it judges based on where on the field the ball is thrown, and how efficient it was in comparison to other QBs.

It does not account for receiver quality, scheme, drops, tight windows, balls thrown OOB, or tipped balls, which they also say.

Cam threw deep more than any other NFL QB, which the formula will hurt Cam for, as they define deeper throws to more than likely more inaccurate. That's one flaw, as it hurts QBs that can't really do anything about it.

Fahey's accuracy standard adds in all the extra variables Football Outsiders doesn't account for. It's also another reason Football Outsiders even promotes his book, because it adds the stats they can't formulate. 

So, you going to respond to what I said or just keep parroting Fahey's nonsense? 16 of 62 on deep passes, for Fahey's statement about cam being the most accurate passer last year when  adjusting for WRs to be true  means that every single incompletion was not his fault. Fahey looked at every incomplete pass cam threw last year and decided someone else was to blame That's just not possible. Numbers work out the  same on medium and short passes too.

You're shortchanging Football Outsiders. Their DVOA and DYAR take all the factors you're talking about with Fahey into account. And, plus minus takes into account everyone being less accurate on deep passes, not just cam.

I think cam is a good QB, but it's just bovine excrement to say he was the most accurate passer by any standards last year. You want to say he was more accurate than he appeared, fine, I'll grant you that, but most accurate is just nonsense. It doesn't jibe with any of the stats from last year or from the eye test.

 

And, Shula's offense has plenty of short throws in it. I know this two ways:

1.All those gifs from your first thread about cam's accuracy-you know, the one you had to change the title on  when I showed you how you were mistaken about cam's short pass accuracy? Most of them have shorter routes available. So unless you somehow picked the only dozen or so pass plays where cam had a short option, the offense had short throws available. Yes, there are max protect plays with only a couple of deep options and there were plays where the protection broke down before he could throw, but there are plenty of short options baked into the scheme.

2. Anderson-w/ the same players, scheme, OC, OLine-completed a bunch of short passes, that's how he got a 68% comp rate. If the short passes were available to Anderson, they're available to cam. Anderson is in no way a better QB, but he throws a much more catchable short ball.

What Fahey and you refuse to admit is that part of the reason cam makes so many difficult throws is because he chooses to. If one QB on the team throws at a 68% comp rate and the other at a 53% comp rate.  the one who throws at 53% is at least partially responsible for the lesser percentage. Fahey believes cam is not responsible in any way for the completion %, that's what I calling BS on.

 

 

[Saca312]

38 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

lol

He keeps harping about how Derek Anderson is better than Cam for some reason and more accurate because he had a better completion percentage against the Bucs lmao.

Seriously. This one read Derek Anderson.

And then he says his accuracy is better than Cam's because of that completion percentage. Just don't tell him that Derek "One Read" Anderson is legitimately the sole reason we lost that game.

And if Derek Anderson truly is more accurate than Cam, I don't see it. Especially this preseason.

Some Falcon fans just try too hard to make themselves look stupid. I don't get that guy's arguments half the time.

 

 

[PrimeTimeHeel]

God, those two gifs are depressing. 

No short routes. 

Well the 1st one has one route going to the left flats which is open. The other 3 all just go straight up the field. Fml

That 2nd gif, just lol. The only excuse for such route combinations is if it was hail merry time. 

God help us. 

[uncfan888]

On 8/29/2017 at 10:03 PM, Cary Kollins said:

Cian Fahey loves him some Cam, and I ain't mad at him for it.

 

just wish he'd unblock me on Twitter :/

He blocked me too. Don't feel bad

[jfra78]

59 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

He blocked me too. Don't feel bad

Stalkers be like....

[uncfan888]

9 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Stalkers be like....

I can't remember why he blocked me. He must have been talking poo about the Panthers though

[mrknowitall]

8 hours ago, falconidae said:

So, you going to respond to what I said or just keep parroting Fahey's nonsense? 16 of 62 on deep passes, for Fahey's statement about cam being the most accurate passer last year when  adjusting for WRs to be true  means that every single incompletion was not his fault. Fahey looked at every incomplete pass cam threw last year and decided someone else was to blame That's just not possible. Numbers work out the  same on medium and short passes too.

You're shortchanging Football Outsiders. Their DVOA and DYAR take all the factors you're talking about with Fahey into account. And, plus minus takes into account everyone being less accurate on deep passes, not just cam.

I think cam is a good QB, but it's just bovine excrement to say he was the most accurate passer by any standards last year. You want to say he was more accurate than he appeared, fine, I'll grant you that, but most accurate is just nonsense. It doesn't jibe with any of the stats from last year or from the eye test.

 

And, Shula's offense has plenty of short throws in it. I know this two ways:

1.All those gifs from your first thread about cam's accuracy-you know, the one you had to change the title on  when I showed you how you were mistaken about cam's short pass accuracy? Most of them have shorter routes available. So unless you somehow picked the only dozen or so pass plays where cam had a short option, the offense had short throws available. Yes, there are max protect plays with only a couple of deep options and there were plays where the protection broke down before he could throw, but there are plenty of short options baked into the scheme.

2. Anderson-w/ the same players, scheme, OC, OLine-completed a bunch of short passes, that's how he got a 68% comp rate. If the short passes were available to Anderson, they're available to cam. Anderson is in no way a better QB, but he throws a much more catchable short ball.

What Fahey and you refuse to admit is that part of the reason cam makes so many difficult throws is because he chooses to. If one QB on the team throws at a 68% comp rate and the other at a 53% comp rate.  the one who throws at 53% is at least partially responsible for the lesser percentage. Fahey believes cam is not responsible in any way for the completion %, that's what I calling BS on.

 

 

In my opinion, you're right about certain things, and you're wrong about certain things. It would only take three less incompletions a game last year to put Cam's completion rate around 60%. So yeah, there are enough short/checkdown options for Cam to boost his completion percentage. He doesn't always take them. That said, him choosing to attempt a difficult (high risk/high reward) pass does not make him inaccurate just because the pass isn't caught. The fact that Derek Anderson was able to complete 68% of his sixty or so passes last year should provide evidence that completion percentage isn't the end-all-be-all of accuracy (because DA is in no way more accurate than Cam). Also, defenses play DA differently than they play Cam (which may account for some of that discrepancy). And I don't know Cían Fahey personally, but I'd like to try to defend him a bit. I believe what you're saying is that if Cam chose to make easier passes more often, his completion percentage would be better. And that's true. It's not arguable. I personally wish that Cam used his checkdowns more often. But I've also seen Fozzy drop crucial short passes. I've seen J Stew drop them. I saw Tolbert tip at least one in the air that ended up being intercepted. And I saw what seemed about half of the successful screens we ran get called back for offensive holding or block in the back. 

It is my belief that Fahey is evaluating what did happen. He's saying that more often than not, Cam throws an accurate ball. If the receiver can't gain separation, and as such gets the ball knocked out of his hand when it gets there, that doesn't take away from Cam's accuracy. If Cam throws a ball forty yards downfield, and Kelvin catches it, but juggles it as he's rolling out of bounds (which happened twice against New Orleans in the same game), that doesn't mean that Cam's pass was inaccurate. If Funchess makes what looks like a great catch before getting hit, and coughing the ball up, that's not Cam being inaccurate.

Personally, I don't think Cam is the most accurate QB in the league, but he's not far from it. 

[Saca312]

I mean I'm not saying Cam's the most accurate. Even I'd have my doubts about that. But he's sure a dang good passer.