QB Tiers Ranking - You'll Never Guess Where Cam Newton's Ranked

[PrimeTimeHeel]

2 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Cam begins his reads deep because that's all his offense offers him. Shula revolved the offense around the run game, then deep pass if that fails. It's a simple system, yet something that strains the QB.

Not sure I follow. We have short routes in our play calls sometimes. So the run and deep pass isn't all that the offense offers him. There is nothing stopping Cam from making his reads short to deep on said plays. Nothing stopping Cam from hitting the flats right after the ball is snapped. I am not sure what the reason is why he doesn't do this. I am sure it's a combination of things. Some on Shula and some on Cam. Bottom line is, that needs to stop. Always safer and a better idea to get the ball out quick to the short stuff if it is there and the D is giving it to you. The longer the pass, the longer you hold on to the ball, the greater chance of bad things happening. 

The offense often had extra blockers and their RB blocking nearly every play. This allowed defenses to just come in with no blitz and just man up against CAR's vertical receivers who don't release well at the LoS or can run horizontally.

If you get the ball out quick (3 step drop / 3 seconds or less) then you do not need to have extra blockers. Even trash OL can USUALLY pass block for 2 - 3 seconds. 

None of Cam's receivers worked well in the short game. This is why Shula often called deep passes most of the time, because calling short passes would make matters worse.

This is a myth. Cam's highest completion % was with the shorter throws. 

It requires the QB to be perfect on every play, which just isn't feasible. With the addition of CMC and Samuel, the short game finally opens up. 

No it doesn't. But it helps to have dynamic WRs and HBs. That I can agree on.

Teams blitz'd Cam more than any other QB  in the NFL and played man most of the time. Without receivers that could separate/release at the LoS quickly, it was easy to lock up the Panthers offense without a guy who can cut the middle quick.

Do you have a source for this? Pretty sure it was like 50/50 man vs zone at worst. 

Now, CMC & Samuel both will be able to beat the blitz and make themselves a target for Cam. This is why I personally believe Cam will have his highest completion percentage this year.

How do you know they will be able to beat the press and blitz? Havent even played a down in a regular season NFL game. 

 

 

[Saca312]

@PrimeTimeHeel Trying to follow you, but I'm lost.

1. I mean if those short options existed, I'm sure Cam would love to quickly throw. But they didn't.

This article sums it up beautifully:

https://theriotreport.com/carolina-panthers-offense-problems-part-1/

Quote

The offensive system the Panthers have run for the past few seasons has, for the most part, been highly traditional, especially the passing game. They look to establish the run and then counter with a deep passing game using shorter passes only when the deep pass is taken away. The issue with such a system is that it involves pass protecting for longer than in offenses which focus on the short passing game.

This is a problem because pass protecting isn’t easy which often leads to Newton being put under pressure when he drops back to pass and then leads to sacks and interceptions. Additionally, the margin of error on longer throws is larger than on shorter ones. All this is born out in the numbers, with the Panthers ranking second in yards-per-completion last season, but twelfth in sack percentage, fourth in interception percentage and dead last in completion percentage.

The problem is exacerbated by how the Panthers look to mitigate it: by using more players as blockers, typically running backs. This reduces the number of receivers Newton has to throw to, increasing the likelihood of there being nobody to throw to, which in turn only leads to more incompletions, more sacks and more interceptions. [This play] is an obvious example of this. There are only two routes being run because Jonathan Stewart and Ed Dickson stay in to block so that Devin Funchess’ route can develop, which it doesn’t. Newton doesn’t have enough time anyway, and the pass falls harmlessly incomplete.

Answers your question on why we add extra blockers (scheme revolves around deep pass), why our receivers don't separate and allow a short gane to develop (Fahey also answers in article above), and why getting the ball out quick never happened.

2. See Fahey article and above.

3. A myth that our receivers were all vertical? And lol, yes, short passes are the highest completion percentage for a QB. Go figure. That's why Sam Bradford leads the league by far in Comp. Percentage cause he throws short more than any NFL QB.

What happened though was Cam threw deep due to Shula's scheme more than any NFL QB to receivers who had the least amount of separation & tighter windows.

Read that here:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000769130/article/cam-newton-leads-nfls-top10-most-aggressive-qbs

4. PFF and Football Outsider analyst. Look it up.

5. Went over that topic on a mccaffrey article i wrote for the front page. What he's done in college translates at the NFL level, as seen in preseason. Those traits have stayed the same, so I expect him to be fine.

And how? At college, both receivers consistently beat press & the blitz, released at the LoS fast, and get open in the short game quick. Wrote extensive analysis on them in the past.

 

 

[PrimeTimeHeel]

Just now, Saca312 said:

@PrimeTimeHeel Trying to follow you, but I'm lost.

1. I mean if those short options existed, I'm sure Cam would love to quickly throw. But they didn't.

This article sums it up beautifully:

https://theriotreport.com/carolina-panthers-offense-problems-part-1/

Answers your question on why we add extra blockers (scheme revolves around deep pass), why our receivers don't separate and allow a short gane to develop (Fahey also answers in article above), and why getting the ball out quick never happened.

The options do exist. I seen them with my own eyes. Guys open on drags or out in the flats and Cam forcing a ball deep into tight or double coverage or a fly route that has very very low chance of completion. 

While our O does revolve around the run and deep passes, that doesn't mean we don't have short routes as well. Not nearly as much as I'd like but we do have some. 

And this whole revolves around thing is just stupid. The offense should be ever flowing and adaptive. You can't say our O is X or Y. At the end of the day you got to take what the D gives you. Whether that is short stuff, middle stuff or deep stuff. Whether they play man or play zone. Whether they stack the box or have a light box ie for runs. 

Looking at that link you sent me. 

1st Play - The flats / 1st down was open with a pass lead to the outside. Had that been Olsen it would have been even more open. 

2nd Play - No route coming across the middle of the field short. 

3rd Play - CB was giving KB tons of space for a quick out route. Olsen and 84 were not even touched going out on their routes. 

4th Play - Quick slant to the left slot WR would have been open for a hot thrown. I do not like how KB and the slot WR routes go towards each other. Olsen would have been wide open in the flats. 

5th Play - Nothing short going across the middle (wide open)

6th Play - Nothing short over the middle

7th Play - KB with a ton of space for a quick out route. Would have liked to see the two left side receivers do crossing routes. Instead they both go up field. 

8th Play - Nothing short over the middle

9th Play - Yay there is a short middle route. Looks like Olsen will be open on his cut outside

We do not do well because the scheme doesn't allow it and or we dont make the right reads or hot routes. Not so much the players. 

2. See Fahey article and above.

3. A myth that our receivers were all vertical? And lol, yes, short passes are the highest completion percentage for a QB. Go figure. That's why Sam Bradford leads the league by far in Comp. Percentage cause he throws short more than any NFL QB.

What happened though was Cam threw deep due to Shula's scheme more than any NFL QB to receivers who had the least amount of separation & tighter windows.

Bottom line is you want to keep the chains moving and gaining yards. That is easiest done with shorter passes. Cam completes 80+ % of them. The problem is we don't use them near enough. 

As I said, Shula is trash. No scheme should revolve around deep passes. Teams are usually going to take that away more than the short stuff. Not to mention the time needed and line play. 

Read that here:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000769130/article/cam-newton-leads-nfls-top10-most-aggressive-qbs

4. PFF and Football Outsider analyst. Look it up.

This says otherwise. It was like I said. Teams played zone and man about 50% of the time. Defenses did not play man most of the time. 

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/139700-fascinating-data-at-least-to-me-re-our-offense-vs-man-coverage-and-how-much-our-defense-played-zone-last-year/

5. Went over that topic on a mccaffrey article i wrote for the front page. What he's done in college translates at the NFL level, as seen in preseason. Those traits have stayed the same, so I expect him to be fine.

And how? At college, both receivers consistently beat press & the blitz, released at the LoS fast, and get open in the short game quick. Wrote extensive analysis on them in the past.

Plenty of players do things in college they don't do in the NFL. It's a different beast. 

I have high hopes for CMC and Samuel. But I am going to wait to proclaim them until I see it with my own eyes. 

 

 

[tiger7_88]

7 hours ago, Saca312 said:

There isn’t another quarterback in the league who could execute the offense that the Panthers are forced to run by their limited personnel.

BUT HIS QBR DOOD!!!

WHAT ABOUT HIS INESTIMABLY LOW QBR COMPARED TO THE AWESOME SAM BRADFORD HUH SMARTY GUY??!?!?!?!?

[PrimeTimeHeel]

1 hour ago, tiger7_88 said:

BUT HIS QBR DOOD!!!

WHAT ABOUT HIS INESTIMABLY LOW QBR COMPARED TO THE AWESOME SAM BRADFORD HUH SMARTY GUY??!?!?!?!?

Bradfords QBR isnt good either. 

We know Cam can play and be better. 

Bradford as of now has always been at best an average middle tier QB.

[Saca312]

lol. Olsen is largely a vertical threat too. He  gets open well intermediately, but wouldn't be good for the short game either.

Yes, receivers have been an issue.

[mrknowitall]

Here's a thought process, which maybe presents why completion percentage isn't the best measure for QB accuracy. Forget the 2016 season.

Between 2011 and 2015, if just one of Cam's incompletions per game were turned into a completion (so take one incomplete bomb and turn it into a five yard pass to a running back or receiver behind the LOS, even if it goes for a two-yard loss), and going into 2016, Cam would've completed 62.7% of his passes for his career. Which I believe would've made him (by completion percentage standards) one of the top ten to fifteen most accurate QBs of all time. 

I don't know if Cam is the most accurate QB (or second most accurate QB) in the league. But I do know that Cam makes a lot of passes that only a handful of QBs in the league can make. I do know that he plays a risk-reward game that other QBs don't. I know I've seen other QBs miss the same passes that Cam occasionally misses (that lead to people complaining about his footwork, etc). I know that Tom Brady (the GOAT) completed a lower percentage of passes than Cam Newton against the Broncos defense last year. And I know that 52.9% isn't indicative of Newton's accuracy. It's indicative of Cam's style, wide receiver play, defensive pressure, play design, offensive penalties that put us in 3rd and 15 way too often, etc. 

Also, I know that in 2015, there was only one QB who had two games where he completed 80% of his passes or more. That QB was our Cam. I don't think an inaccurate QB could do that.

[KillerKat]

2 hours ago, tiger7_88 said:

BUT HIS QBR DOOD!!!

WHAT ABOUT HIS INESTIMABLY LOW QBR COMPARED TO THE AWESOME SAM BRADFORD HUH SMARTY GUY??!?!?!?!?

If we had any other QB back in 2011, they would've been forced to retire by 2014.

[Jangler]

11

[joemac]

Cam is definitely not inaccurate. I think I would call him more streaky than wild. Sometimes he will get in the zone, sometimes for multiple weeks, where he can and does make every single throw. He has times where he looks like one of the greatest QBs of all time. Then, we have wild, inconsistent Cam. We all know the story. You can usually tell from the jump in a game if we're getting good Cam or bad Cam. The vast majority of the time we get good Cam....but he, along with everyone else throws up some stinkers sometimes. He's needed help for a long time now.... hopefully we have that now with Samuel and CMC.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

IMO, people put too much stock in this stuff, whether they think it's too high or too low. Cam needs to win this year. That's the only thing that really matters.

[dpm0409]

Just win baby.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

BTW, I have noticed that very few Panther fans seem to care who the other teams  OC's are when they're judging their QB's.

[Hoenheim]

If you put Cam on the Steelers offense he'd be unstoppable. I'm really hoping our WRs step up this year and Samuel/CMC end up being huge factors in it too.