QB Tiers Ranking - You'll Never Guess Where Cam Newton's Ranked

[Saca312]

Yes. Another article dealing with ranking QBs into tiers and how they perform above the rest. A subject beaten and butchered to the point of no return as sports writers everywhere look to make easy money on simplistic hot takes. However, unlike Colin Cowherd's recent "QB tiers" list, this particular author backs up everything he says. 

This is a worthwhile read. I recommend everyone take a look at this. The part I'm highlighting is only one out of the 32 QBs listed on here.My comments will be in "quotes" 

http://presnapreads.com/2017/08/29/nfl-quarterback-tiers-evaluations-ahead-of-the-2017-season/

Cam Newton

Tier: 1

Rank: 2

R k = Rank In Comparison To Other NFL QBs

#-# = Accuracy between x and y yards

Cam Newton’s MVP season wasn’t a fluke. He carried that form into the beginning of the 2016 season and through the midpoint of the regular season. Then, with the suddenness of a blown tire, Newton’s arm died. He could no longer physically put the ball where he wanted to put it. A quarterback who could previously flick the ball 60 yards with ease was now watching his passes float no matter how much effort he put into the throw. The worst game of his career occurred in Week 17 against the Buccaneers, Newton threw seven of his 27 interceptable passes for the season in that game. Each a result of his dysfunctional shoulder sapping his arm strength. It was obvious that Newton’s shoulder was badly injured long before the offseason surgery.

Because of how Newton failed, it doesn’t make sense to criticize him heavily for those performances. He wasn’t making bad coverage reads or reacting poorly to pressure in the pocket. All of his problems could be traced back to that shoulder injury. Understanding that context, Newton has been astonishingly good the past two seasons.

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One thing that people gloss over is just how badly Newton was affected by his shoulder injury. During the games he was hurt, his performance took a steep decline to the point it basically defines his season.The author makes a point that the last few games were definitely an outlier.

"Newton had three games with an accuracy percentage below 60 percent last season, all of which came after he was hurt."

Considering that, it's fair to say that Newton's accuracy overall would've been much better had he not been injured or playing hurt.

Not only does the 28-year old play in the most stressful scheme a quarterback can play in, he does so with a consistently inadequate supporting cast. Everything the Panthers do centers around Newton’s skill set. The passing game relies on deep drops in the pocket with vertical routes that take time to develop. Because the Panthers don’t have viable starting tackles to give Newton time, the offense relies on hard play fakes and extra pass blockers to function. This means Newton has to fit the ball into tighter windows with fewer receivers running routes against more defensive backs. He often has to throw said receivers open and anticipate the placement of the ball to get it out before the pass rush engulfs him. Even when Newton makes a perfect pass, his receivers are as likely to ruin it as they are to catch it. Newton lost 845 yards (without considering YAC) to receiver error last year, only Aaron Rodgers lost more and he played in four more games. Kelvin Benjamin’s return actually made the receiving corps worse rather than better.

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An article from @RoaringRiot's Riot Report dwells deeper into the Panthers offense in terms of the expectations of the offense:

https://theriotreport.com/carolina-panthers-offense-problems-part-1/

The offensive system the Panthers have run for the past few seasons has, for the most part, been highly traditional, especially the passing game. They look to establish the run and then counter with a deep passing game using shorter passes only when the deep pass is taken away. The issue with such a system is that it involves pass protecting for longer than in offenses which focus on the short passing game.

This is a problem because pass protecting isn’t easy which often leads to Newton being put under pressure when he drops back to pass and then leads to sacks and interceptions. Additionally, the margin of error on longer throws is larger than on shorter ones. All this is born out in the numbers, with the Panthers ranking second in yards-per-completion last season, but twelfth in sack percentage, fourth in interception percentage and dead last in completion percentage.

The problem is exacerbated by how the Panthers look to mitigate it: by using more players as blockers, typically running backs. This reduces the number of receivers Newton has to throw to, increasing the likelihood of there being nobody to throw to, which in turn only leads to more incompletions, more sacks and more interceptions. [This play] is an obvious example of this. There are only two routes being run because Jonathan Stewart and Ed Dickson stay in to block so that Devin Funchess’ route can develop, which it doesn’t. Newton doesn’t have enough time anyway, and the pass falls harmlessly incomplete.

What this reveals is the stress our prior system put on Newton. Not only were his receivers unable to work well in the short game, but the offense as a whole was designed "run first, throw deep to lumbering receivers if running game fails." Without an adequate receiver to alleviate the blitz, Cam Newton was one of the most blitz'd QBs in the NFL with no help at all. As the author said, Cam's receivers weren't fit for the short game.

The Panthers also had to put in extra blockers, which then made it even harder to find an open receiver. This limited the personnel and offense we could run. Cam had it rough.

That's why Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel are so important for this team. With a reliable underneath option, Cam Newton's accuracy should only skyrocket. (That subject will be coming later).

 

There isn’t another quarterback in the league who could execute the offense that the Panthers are forced to run by their limited personnel. He combines the patience, awareness, arm strength and poise within the pocket to keep the timing of route combinations as everything collapses around him. There are other quarterbacks who contribute in the running game like Newton, but none have the whole scheme built around him the way he does. Newton makes every single element of the offense better with his presence alone. He can be used on option run designs like Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton, but Newton’s skill set goes one step further than that. He is also the best redzone weapon in the league because of his power to run through linebackers. Newton’s presence changes the numbers advantage into the offense’s favor whenever they run the ball.

Much is made of Newton’s completion percentage. Using that singular number to judge accuracy is irrational. It would be like saying DeAndre Jordan is more accurate than Steph Curry because his field goal percentage is higher. Newton throws the ball downfield more than any other quarterback. 67.67 percent of Newton’s pass attempts travelled further than five yards downfield last year, the league average was 52.13 percent. Only Jameis Winston was close to Newton. When you adjust for that depth Newton’s completion percentage jumps to the 12th best in the league. When you take out the receiver’s influence on the outcome of each play to isolate the accuracy of the quarterback, Newton becomes by far the most accurate passer in the NFL. Those measurements aren’t perfect, but they are a far more accurate reflection of Newton’s accuracy than completion percentage is.

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Once again, "completion percentage" does not define accuracy. It's a near meaningless statistic that doesn't account for a large set of variables. Such makes Sam Bradford look like one of the most accurate passers in the NFL and Kirk Cousins a top 3 QB, when reality shows they aren't as good as advertised. 

What does jump out is this particular quote. I'll highlight it once again:

When you take out the receiver’s influence on the outcome of each play to isolate the accuracy of the quarterback, Newton becomes by far the most accurate passer in the NFL.

A very interesting statement. I'd agree with the fact Newton is more accurate than advertised, and he certainly had a lot of problems at the hands of his receivers. But what this does reveal is a shattering of the narratives that Cam Newton is not a pocket QB, or even an elite passer. Film shows he is in fact top tier in the NFL, and that shouldn't be ignored.

Did you know?

Cam Newton threw more passes further than 20 yards downfield last year than he threw behind the line of scrimmage. Newton was accurate on 68.46 percent of his passes that travelled further than five yards downfield. Even if you include all of Matt Barkley, Brock Osweiler, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff’s short throws and exclude Newton’s, that 68.46 would still make him the most accurate from the group.

______

*Please excuse my lack of creativity in terms of the title of this thread. I know it's clickbait-esque, but just go along with it.

[TPanther920]

Pie and Beer don't go together or I would give you both

[PrimeTimeHeel]

But but I thought Cam did poorest in the short passing game ?!?!?

[CarolinaSamurai]

This....is....such a good read. Even the other QBs are well written and explained

[Pejorative Miscreant]

Cams just a lazy QB and wants to run or just check it down the field

[Cary Kollins]

Cian Fahey loves him some Cam, and I ain't mad at him for it.

 

just wish he'd unblock me on Twitter :/

[jfra78]

Very click baitish type title, good read.  Thanks Saca

[Kevin Greene]

This is where Cam should be. Name me one QB other than Cam if you were a GM starting a team you'd select. Sure Brady may be better, he's about 78 right now!

All Cam needs is a balanced, well coached team around him and he will dominate the NFL until 2025.

[falconidae]

Cam is not the most accurate passer in the NFL, doesn't matter how you filter it, he just isn't. Cam's actual completion % was 52.9. For him to be the most accurate QB would require that every single ball that wasn't complete was not his fault. That's just not possible.

Fahey loves him some strong armed QBs and it shows. He literally blames everybody else besides cam for every incompletion. 

Lets look at another source like Football outsiders, who also watch every play and judge it in its context

"passing plus-minus estimates how many passes a quarterback completed compared to what an average quarterback would have done, given the location of those passes"

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-passing-plus-minus

Cam was 31st, last among qualifiers.

In their DVOA and DYAR stats, cam was ranked 28th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

 

On long passes, 20 yards in air  from the LOS, ESPN splits has  cam as 16 of 62 for 2016, that's barely 25%. It's just not possible that the 46 incompletions were all someone else's fault.

It also means that, in Saca's earlier thread about cam's accuracy, Saca had gifs of almost every deep throw that cam completed last year. Those throws would look a lot less impressive if you had the gifs of the 46 incompletions as well.

 

Cam is a good QB, he had a rough year last year, it was hardly all his fault, but some of it was. He's not the most accurate QB by any standards. And he doesn't have to be, he had an incredible season in 2015. Difference in accuracy between 2016 and 2015 is 2 more completions a game in 2016.

Going to be interesting to see how cam does with the short passing game this year. I think he's going to struggle with it at first simply because he hasn't had time this offseason to practice it and all the new parts on offense haven't had time to gel.

[PrimeTimeHeel]

^^^

I highly doubt we will be seeing a lot of short passes.

Cam begins his reads deep and rarely makes it to the short routes. 

Which causes him to make a considerable amount of bad passes / bad reads or holding on to the ball too long. 

This is mostly on Shula as far as im concerned. It's his job to get Cam where he needs to be. 

Cam still has blame for this also. 

If I am Cam or Shula 1st read is ALWAYS going to be the short stuff (flats, drags, hitches, slants, etc). Take what the D is giving you. Keep the chains moving. Once they start to take away the short stuff that is when the middle and deep stuff will open up. 

[Saca312]

@falconidae Football outsiders is a great building block, but even what they did isn't enough. What you quoted was their analysis on the plus/minus of completion percentage, which actually serves to hurt Cam even more and doesn't give the context necessary.

You can read up on the concept here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/2015-passing-plus-minus

What that particular formula accounts for is where the ball was thrown on the field and what would the average QB do instead. Basically, if you throw deep a lot, this formula will hurt you more, likewise if you throw short too much, this formula will deduct a little bit as well.

Effectively, it judges based on where on the field the ball is thrown, and how efficient it was in comparison to other QBs.

It does not account for receiver quality, scheme, drops, tight windows, balls thrown OOB, or tipped balls, which they also say.

Cam threw deep more than any other NFL QB, which the formula will hurt Cam for, as they define deeper throws to more than likely more inaccurate. That's one flaw, as it hurts QBs that can't really do anything about it.

Fahey's accuracy standard adds in all the extra variables Football Outsiders doesn't account for. It's also another reason Football Outsiders even promotes his book, because it adds the stats they can't formulate. 

[OneBadCat]

Cam's a great passer. Cowherd is a ignorant twat who probably got cut from his flag football team. 

Cam is literally Brett Favre with size and legs and he plays with that kind of confidence. In Cam's mind he probably believes he will make the 10+ yard throw versus checking down and using short passes. And with his skillset you can't blame him. We also never game him the right weapons or play calling to support high percentage throws. 

But the accuracy, arm talent and pre snap read ability is all there with Cam Newton. That's what hot take media heads fail to acknowledge. And that's that poo I don't like.

[PrimeTimeHeel]

1 minute ago, OneBadCat said:

Cam's a great passer. Cowherd is a ignorant twat who probably got cut from his flag football team. 

Cam is literally Brett Favre with size and legs and he plays with that kind of confidence. In Cam's mind he probably believes he will make the 10 yard throw versus checking down and using short passes. We also never game him the right weapons or play calling to support high percentage throws. 

But the accuracy, arm talent and pre snap read ability is all there with Cam Newton. That's what hot take media heads fail to acknowledge.

Not sure I would go this far. 

Cam has to make better pre snap adjustments, better progressions, and better reads. 

Doesn't help when your OC is trash and is only in the league due to his name. 

[Saca312]

8 minutes ago, PrimeTimeHeel said:

^^^

I highly doubt we will be seeing a lot of short passes.

Cam begins his reads deep and rarely makes it to the short routes. 

Which causes him to make a considerable amount of bad passes / bad reads or holding on to the ball too long. 

Cam begins his reads deep because that's all his offense offers him. Shula revolved the offense around the run game, then deep pass if that fails. It's a simple system, yet something that strains the QB.

The offense often had extra blockers and their RB blocking nearly every play. This allowed defenses to just come in with no blitz and just man up against CAR's vertical receivers who don't release well at the LoS or can run horizontally.

None of Cam's receivers worked well in the short game. This is why Shula often called deep passes most of the time, because calling short passes would make matters worse.

It requires the QB to be perfect on every play, which just isn't feasible. With the addition of CMC and Samuel, the short game finally opens up. 

Teams blitz'd Cam more than any other QB  in the NFL and played man most of the time. Without receivers that could separate/release at the LoS quickly, it was easy to lock up the Panthers offense without a guy who can cut the middle quick.

Now, CMC & Samuel both will be able to beat the blitz and make themselves a target for Cam. This is why I personally believe Cam will have his highest completion percentage this year.