Article: Reinventing The Panthers Offense - Why Shula Needs To Get Smarter With The New Guys

[pantherclaw]

Didn't realize we had an all new offense. 

[RetiredCollegeCoach]

6 hours ago, tiger7_88 said:

HOW DAR U EMPLY THAT ANYBUDY BUT S/CAM NEWTUN IZ AT FALT HERE!!!

SINSERLY,

RETIREDCOLLEGERACIST

Truly there are some football simpletons at this board. Wonder Woman isn't really at fault on this play - it fell apart so quickly there was no time to over-throw or make a bad decision. 

Still, he looks distracted (maybe caught a glimpse of Chris Pine on the sideline?) and clueless - not like a leader. Not like a guy who figures out a way to win when he's losing. 

[Saca312]

2 hours ago, falconidae said:

1. Cam is not impeccable past 5 yards. He's a very good QB, but his mechanics get sloppy and mess with his accuracy. Offense's struggles last year were certainly not all his fault, but some of it IS his fault.

2. Something I've been saying on the falcons messageboard I think I should say here is I think the transition for Cam to a new offense is going to be difficult and probably ugly for a while.

3. Not sure why the Oline is considered a strength by many on this board

4. Then, Samuel was not a WR in college...

5. I'l be really surprised if the panthers offense comes out firing on all cylinders next year.

I edited your quote in a way that shortened some of your claims. I'll hereby answer each and every statement one by one.

1. "Cam Newton not impeccable past(?) five yards". Interesting take, considering Cam Newton is the 4th most accurate QB on all throws that go beyond five yards, trailing Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. 

Now, if you're talking about Cam Newton in the 0-5 yard range, I agree. Cam Newton's 89.83 percent on throws behind the line of scrimmage (24th in the league) and 67.86 percent in the 1-5 yard range (32nd in the league) show that he isn't the best at the short passing game.

While I will blame Newton for some of that, I also have to put a lot of blame on his receivers as well. When looking at Carolina's receivers, you'll notice that they're a huge reason why the Panthers didn't have much of a short passing game:

Quote

Newton’s receivers are big but they aren’t good. They don’t adjust well to the ball in the air and they can’t create separation. 59 times last year Newton threw an accurate pass only to have his receiver ruin the play. Only Aaron Rodgers lost more receptions to receiver error.

Newton played in an offense that was designed to push the ball down the field with linear receivers who couldn’t run shorter routes to get open. Throwing downfield was difficult, it is difficult in the best of conditions, but especially so because his receivers struggled to get open and he was constantly delivering the ball from condensed pockets. Throwing short was an even greater challenge because receivers such as Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn aren’t good at releasing from the line of scrimmage. Even Greg Olsen is largely just a vertical threat.

Simply put, no Panther WR was fit for the short game. They can't release fast at the line of scrimmage and get open in a timely manner. That's exactly why the Panthers threw so much downfield.

Cam Newton threw less than five yards on 32.43% of his throws; the least amount in the NFL. In comparison, Sam Bradford threw fewer than five yards on 62.13% of his throws; nearly double Cam Newton's volume. Bradford boasts having the best completion percentage of 2016, while Cam Newton was dead last.

Completion percentage favors those who take the short passes the most. Cam Newton was unable to do it as often.

Without any true receiver that can play in the short passing game, Shula and Cam were handicapped. Forced to draw up deep passing plays to compensate for lack of talent, Cam Newton suffered. With checkdowns rarely forming with collapsing pockets and short options being unreliable, it was a pitiful sight.

Take this play for example. 

A well-designed play, followed by a picture perfect throw, Fozzy had no reason to drop that ball. This should've been a good gain of a decent bit of yards after a perfectly thrown pass. However, Fozzy proved himself inadequate and unreliable in this instance, along with many other examples.

This is why checkdowns and short passes were so few. Cam's o-line didn't allow time for checkdowns to form, and when they did, they would drop the ball anyway. Fozzy and Tolbert were not the most reliable checkdown options.

Cam Newton's 0-5 yard range accuracy isn't just all on him. His WRs weren't compatible with the short game at all. I do expect the additions of McCaffrey, Samuel, and Shepard allow Newton to be more accurate in that area because they've proven to be capable in that area.

2. Again, Cam Newton comes from an offense based on the deep-passing game because his WRs can't do anything but that. I'll highlight the quote once again:

Quote

Newton’s receivers are big but they aren’t good. They don’t adjust well to the ball in the air and they can’t create separation. 59 times last year Newton threw an accurate pass only to have his receiver ruin the play. Only Aaron Rodgers lost more receptions to receiver error.

Newton played in an offense that was designed to push the ball down the field with linear receivers who couldn’t run shorter routes to get open. Throwing downfield was difficult, it is difficult in the best of conditions, but especially so because his receivers struggled to get open and he was constantly delivering the ball from condensed pockets. Throwing short was an even greater challenge because receivers such as Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn aren’t good at releasing from the line of scrimmage. Even Greg Olsen is largely just a vertical threat.

It’s why the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.

Newton’s poor accuracy numbers on shorter throws ... should get better with receivers who can run more routes and create quicker separation. That is assuming Mike Shula incorporates play designs that don’t exclusively feature vertical releases and hard play fakes.

If you really thought our offense as of late has been tailoring to Cam's strengths, it's a rather unusual take. The Panther's offense was designed to maximize the pathetic talent of our weak WR group by going deep so often. Cam is just lucky enough to be one of the better deep passers in the league.

Let's take that same Fozzy play, but replace it with Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey is a very quick player who releases well at the line of scrimmage. His footwork allows him to cut cleanly and efficiently in order to get open at a rapid rate. He's an effective weapon in the short passing game.

In the play above, watch how McCaffrey keeps his eyes on the QB to assess how he's going. Patiently waiting at one spot for a few as plan A of being a checkdown, he reads that the QB wants him to cut across the middle as an option.

The result? McCaffrey provides a clean catch and gains a good chunk of yards coming across the field. 

This is the type of play Cam needs. Instead of guys dropping his balls or not being in position due to their bad release, Cam will get guys who release fast at the LoS and get open.

In the play above, notice McCaffrey exploiting a mismatch option. He uses his footwork and quickness to run down the middle and straight to the endzone. Pitting McCaffrey against any linebacker is an immediate mismatch, and McCaffrey takes full advantage.

On the play above, watch Curtis Samuel's quick release at the LoS and getting open in the short game. An easy completion and reception.

So, as far as my worries about Cam adjusting? I think he'll be just fine. Cam Newton entered in a whole different style of offense in 2011 in comparison to Auburn while missing OTAs due to injury. He had one of his best seasons that year with actual weapons surrounding him.

Your argument that Cam's going to have a harder time in a system that's designed to be way easier than throwing it deep in tight windows on most plays is laughable.

3. Matt Kalil sucks. No one's denying it. However, he does have a better situation here, and he's undergone hip surgery for an injury that's been nagging him since college.

When I watched Matt Kalil's film, he was awful - worse than Remmers. However, my opinion was it was due to a lack of explosiveness and fluidity with his hips that cost him. From a technical standpoint, it's no wonder he was a pro-bowler his rookie season.

Do I have high expectations? No. Do I think he could improve? Yes, but I'm not counting on it. We've had Remmers and Bell at LT, and Kalil at the least will provide that level of play. While it's unfortunate, it won't kill our season.

As far as RT. You're funny if you think Remmers is better than Daryl Williams and Taylor Moton. Remmers is the definition of a dumpster fire and should've been depth last year. Daryl Williams played well against better competition and performed better than Remmers.

Taylor Moton's a rookie, but it's pretty much guaranteed his play will be better than Remmers simply because it isn't hard to do so.

We upgraded at RT, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

And concerning our interior, we have very good depth at G and C. Our starters are elite, anchored by Ryan Kalil's top tier play. Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner make up some of the best guards in the league and will have a pay day in 2018.

It's a better situation than last year automatically with everyone healthy and our depth better. 

4. Huh? You haven't watched a bit of Samuel film in your life, have you? Did you seriously say Curtis Samuel is going to have a tough time transitioning to a WR when he clearly was best as a WR in college?

Here you go. I studied all 5 of Curtis Samuel's games available on draft breakdown and compiled them in a twitter GIF thread. 40+ GIFs for your enjoyment.

If you are unfamiliar with how this works, you click the twitter link and look at the reply chain that comes along with it. Basically, click anywhere on that white box, go to that new page that pops up, and scroll up and down as you please.

Anyways, I'll give a few samples of Samuel being a WR for your viewing pleasure:

Samuel motions out to slot from backfield. Clean cuts & crisp route running leads to Samuel being open in middle. Speed allows him to arrive in the endzone. No problems being a WR there.

Here's another one concerning his ability to track the ball:

Curtis Samuel goes on a deep route in the slot and gets himself open. He tracks the ball well, grabs it, and hauls it in for a huge gain. 

Here's another one:

Again, Samuel isn't a wide receiver? Watch him make the double move on a crisp route down the middle. The defender is fooled and begins running the other way. Had the QB thrown this ball on time, this probably would've been a very big play.

Here's another one:

The result was the Michigan corner being left in the dust as Samuel got free in the horizontal game. Curtis Samuel initiates a route and move to fool the Michigan defender to get wide open in the middle of the field.

Fluid and clean through the whole process.

Another example:

In the play above, Samuel goes against Jourdan Lewis - Dallas' 3rd round pick - and leaves him in the dust. Samuel begins with a hesitation move that stops the CB right in his tracks, then he does a good job of using his hands here to keep himself clean and release.

The subtle part about this is how there’s a nice inside release from Samuel, but he makes sure he “stacks” the DB and gets back on track. He knows what he’s doing as a receiver. Even further down the field, you can see him avoid contact.

And finally, why he's one of the most dangerous slot receivers from the draft:

A slot receiver who can stretch the middle of the field, get separation, and burn corners to the endzone. That right there is absolutely critical for Cam Newton's success, and Samuel provides that option. His ability to stretch the field and work his way in the middle will give any defender a run for his money.

"Curtis Samuel having a tough time transitioning to WR."

5. You'll be very surprised then. The Panthers offense's floor is being better than 2016. The addition of CMC and Samuel allows the Panthers to unleash an arsenal they've never been able to before.

For now, I'll post an excerpt on just McCaffrey's impact I wrote about before:

At Stanford, McCaffrey was used everywhere on the field. Whether on the outside, slot, runningback, or returner, McCaffrey turned himself into an absolute all-purpose weapon. For the Panthers, expect that trend to continue but with an added flair.

When looking for mismatch opportunities, you have to understand what Christian McCaffrey is good at. His footwork is quick and precise, his running style patient and elusive, and his route-running crisp and clean. One thing he exploited a lot at Stanford was mismatch options against linebackers.

For example, Take this drawn up play from PFF:

Here, Sam Monson creates a very likely scenario and a formation we might see. Olsen exploits a potential mismatch going against a SS while we bunch 3 WRs together on the other side. McCaffrey is in the play and adds a whole new wrinkle in the formation.

With McCaffrey in the line-up, that LB is going to have to follow him wherever he goes. McCaffrey is a mismatch even when he's in the backfield. As seen in the play above, McCaffrey exploits a one on one opportunity with the linebacker coming out of the backfield, gaining a huge chunk of yards.

However, the Panthers could elect to motion McCaffrey near Olsen or in the slot, drawing the linebacker out for an even bigger mismatch opportunity. 

When McCaffrey works against linebackers, watch how fast he moves his feet and gets himself open. The linebacker simply isn't able to keep up with Christian McCaffrey's speed, loses the battle, and allows McCaffrey to go off for a touchdown.

With the type of play formation shown above, McCaffery proves to be a deadly weapon no matter how you slice it.

Another possibility includes this play brought up by Fahey on twitter. Falcons elect to bring six personnel against this Panthers formation:

Now imagine the backfield is Newton and McCaffrey. The Falcons can't go five in the box against Cam Newton because that's simply asking for a beatdown, and six allows McCaffrey to exploit a big mismatch opportunity.

There's a whole lot of ways the Panthers can exploit this scenario.

The Panthers could run option off the DE. That would likely end up in a scenario where a first down is achieved. The Panthers could pull a guard to lead the way, toss the ball outside to CMC, send him in a route against these linebackers, or simply let Cam be Cam.

Anyway you slice it, the Panthers have a lot of options on one simple play to get a first down. McCaffrey's presence only makes defenses even more worried than normal. Knowing he could run out of the backfield or come in for a route gives the defense a lot to account for.

Another way to use McCaffrey is in two runningback sets. Take the following formation for example:

Imagine the backfield being Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Christian McCaffrey. Curtis Samuel is working the slot, Olsen on top perimeter, and Kelvin Benjamin on bottom. A whole host of mismatch opportunities have presented themselves on this play.

The Panthers could run with Stewart, bring Samuel in for a sweep, run play, or working the slot with his speed, let Cam take over, run with McCaffrey, or let him leak out of the play-action on as seen below:

The mismatch potential of the Panthers offense is monstrous. They could even replace Stewart with Samuel to add to the chaos, and place Russell Shepard in the slot. So many ways for the Panthers to foil defenses. McCaffrey's presence allows mismatches to be created.

Defenses just won't be able to keep up. Bleacher Report made a very nice article on how the Panthers could use weapons like McCaffrey (and Samuel) to become one of the deadliest option offenses in the NFL.

Here's a sample of something that could be drawn up:

When McCaffrey and/or Samuel are on the field, defenses are going to respond with nickel or dime personnel so they can match speed with speed. When the Panthers then spread the field, there won't be many defenders in the box. And when Newton and one of the backs "mesh" for a handoff, the whole defense is going to freeze. That will make for some delicious misdirection goodness.

Let's expand on a simple zone-read type of play and make it a little more exotic. We'll start with linemen inside-zone blocking to the left, McCaffrey preparing for a handoff and Newton reading the backside defensive end for whether to give the ball or keep it.

But let's add an important wrinkle: Samuel motioning from a split wide receiver position, running a jet-sweep counter to the flow of the blocking. If that defensive end stays at home, McCaffrey takes the handoff and runs inside zone against what's left of the defensive box. If he crashes, Newton pulls the ball and gives it to Samuel. The Panthers get an option wrinkle and a playmaker in space without risking a hit on their quarterback.

Tanier Art Studios

The Panthers already have concepts similar to this one in their playbook. Against the Chiefs, they ran a wacky end-around to Ted Ginn Jr. that started as an outside-zone handoff to Stewart. That play got stuffed, in part because there was too much going on (the Newton-to-Stewart-to-Ginn exchange, mainly).

The sweep shown above can easily be integrated into a sequence, with a conventional handoff and some play-action passes from the same formation. That makes plays like this one hard to game-plan for—and makes the threat of them almost as dangerous as the plays themselves.

Simply put, the Panthers now have offensive match-up nightmares. It's going to be a lot harder to stop them now.

Good luck, and good day to you.

[RetiredCollegeCoach]

[Saca312]

@falconidae 

Let me say a few things about the Falcons and some crazy talk from your fanbase:

1. I do not believe your offense will be as good as it was in 2016. Matt Ryan's a good QB whose play was inflated by one of the league's best OCs. In one of the most QB-friendly environments, Matt Ryan was able to make simple passes and completions and let the scheme play out everything else.

While I expect Sark to try and implement some of the same things, I do not expect him to build much off to the point he'll provide much counters to the counters teams will come up with during the off-season. The Falcons are on everyone's targets right now, and everyone's looking through film to exploit them.

Losing Shanahan is the equivalent of us losing Josh Norman. Trying to replace him with a college coordinator is the equivalent of us trying to replace Norman with a rookie. Expect a slow start from your OC adjusting to the NFL.

2. The Falcons will also probably not be as lucky with o-line injuries as they were in 2016. That right there could make or break your season, considering you still have question marks at RG and tackle depth. Whether you like it or not, being healthy allowed your team to go far.

3. I do think your signing of Poe is overhyped. He's not the player he once was. Poe's stats have been on a steady decline. Just look for yourself:

The Dontari Poe the Falcons are getting in 2017 is one that has seen his tackling numbers declined every year for the last four years and has not been a pass rushing presence in the past two years.

As you can see, Poe is no longer the threat he once was. Even in your system, I do not expect him to be all that scary. 

4. Takkarist McKinley is a downgrade from Dwight Freeney. He's raw and not much of an aggressive pass rusher. All he has is motor. He won't be producing much his rookie season.

This article speaks for itself how much work Takk is:

Quote

Against Utah, statistically, McKinley had one hell of a day. Three sacks, three hurries, two tackles for losses, and two other tackles: I mean, it doesn't get much better than that. That's some hellafied production.

That being the case, maybe had I watched the Utah game first instead of last during my first viewing, I'd have a more positive opinion of him when watching the other four games, which might have then colored my perception a little more on the positive side.

Maybe.

But even with the Utah game — which I made sure to watch first on my second time through, when I took notes — once you get past the numbers, his performance isn't quite as impressive.

His first sack was more the product of Utah's linemen busting their assignments, rather than McKinley beating anybody.

The second sack, the one where he also caused a fumble? Totally legit. I didn't see much of this from him in the other four games, but that takes nothing away from the fact that he beat a guy with his speed and made a huge play.

Third sack, however, might as well have had a big bow on it. McKinley just avoided a poo cut block attempt, came in basically unmolested, and tackled a QB who held the ball a mite too long.

You can't put an asterisk beside sacks, but context is key. I might be a little jaded by the fact that McDowell, whose breakdown I just finished, didn't have nearly the amount of opportunities to rush an offensive tackle one-on-one as McKinley did, and thus didn't have the sack numbers. However, I don't think there is any question that McDowell will be the better edge rusher in the NFL, barring injury.

Hell, those three hurries against Utah?

The first only came after he lost contain.

The second, he was unblocked against a run/pass option.

The third, he looped inside and came scot free.

But when McKinley actually had to win a one-on-one?

 

Yeah, he only won one out of 12 against Utah.

 

Oh, and he got pancaked something fierce.

Keep in mind that this was by far his most productive game as a pass rusher. He only had two sacks in the other four games combined, and he had more tackles for loss against the Utes than in any other game in his college career.

Aside the humorous language, it's obvious Takk is a bunch of work. I do not expect him to be threatening us much at all.

5. Stop with the top 5 defense talks. Stop. You may not be the one saying that, but a lot of your fanbase is. Focus on trying to be top 15, and then we'll start talking higher expectations.

[uncfan888]

@Saca312 falcons defense finished the year ranked worse than ours and they're talking top 5? Good lord

[nctarheel0619]

11 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

I think the reason I most look forward to China ruling the earth is that all of their last names sound like slang for cock.

[Udogg]

Does anyone else notice the horrible OL play in that first gif?  

 

[Mistuh Jones]

20 hours ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I have no doubt that Shula can orchestrate an offense that is maddening with pre-snap motion and misdirection.

I don't entirely trust him not to call a god damn screen on 3rd and 10 with Brenton Bersin being the #1 receiving option though.

Thus is the enigma that is Shula. He bakes a beautiful cake but it tastes like poo. 

This is so effing perfect it makes me want to vomit 

[Snake]

On 7/5/2017 at 9:06 PM, stbugs said:

Every OC asks for new people. He got KB back from 2015.. Either he realized people already figured him out or he realized it was all Cam. We added a 941 yard/7 TD WR and he needed more? I know I'd rather have what we have now but you've got to innovate as a coach and make in game adjustments. We ran the same stuff that didn't work in the SB. I never felt like we attacked weaknesses. I hate to use Belicheck as an example because he's the top coach but damnit if he didn't Blount the Colts when he knew that was the best way to blow them out.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

This is probably the dumbest post I have read in awhile but it is off season. For one the Patriots have multiple weapons on offense. You have Gronk, you have Danny Amindola, you have Edelman, and you have Tom Brady as YOUR QB... They also added Cooks this year as well. That's not a roster full of Brent Bersin and Philly Browns. Falcons are another example of adding players make a difference. Give JJ a compliment, give Matt ryan some protection,  and a halfway good scheme and they are #1 in the league. Everyone likes to blame Shula for our offense not being top 10 every year but they also love to ignore that Cam has had no protection and a bunch of scrub WRs his whole career. 

[Saca312]

@stbugs The patriots wide recievers are better than you think. It's not all scheme related.

Ironicially, I'd say the Falcons WRs were elevated by scheme and would be mediocre elsewhere (minus Julio Jones).

[stankowalski]

On 7/5/2017 at 1:27 PM, Saca312 said:

Just saw this article on twitter. It's a good analytical piece on what went wrong in 2016 and how Curtis Samuel and Christian McCaffrey pretty much gives Shula no more excuses for some of the pathetic playcalls he made last year.

Here's an excerpt:

http://twoqbs.com/qb-profiles/reinventing-the-carolina-panthers-passing-offense/

Shula has no excuses. The Panthers drafted these two players to evolve, and Shula needs to show that will happen with his play-calling.

Thoughts?

If Cam would have thrown the ball to Funchess on time in that play it would have been a completion and a first down.  That's my thought.

[Saca312]

1 hour ago, stankowalski said:

If Cam would have thrown the ball to Funchess on time in that play it would have been a completion and a first down.  That's my thought.

Funchess wasn't even beginning to turn by the time Cam had 4-5 defenders on his face.

There's no way he could've thrown it out on time.

[Snake]

6 hours ago, stbugs said:

Amendola? LOL. Gronk didn't play at all last year. What does Cooks have to do with anything? He hasn't played a down. Who was the weapon in the SB last year? White.

Outside of Moss who was part of a top 5 all time offense (far better than our 2015 offense) who has Brady had at WR? Edelman and Welker? The point that you missed completely was that a successful OC uses weapons to attack weaknesses. Blount and White are perfect examples. Go look at Saca's thread on SOS. We played against the 25th ranked pass defense against RBs and our top RB had 8 receptions.

Shula rode Cam's best year and a ridiculous turnover margin to the top scoring offense in 2015. When lightning didn't strike twice he had no ability to exploit weaknesses and fell back to Cam throw it deep even though the OL is in shambles and we only need 3 yards for a first down.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

So your argument is that philly brown, and Bersin are better than Edelman and Amendola and that a good OC should have better used them because they are better?