Analysis To End All Cam Debates: Cam Newton - Reviewing His 2016 Season In Greater Detail, And Why It's Not All About Completion Percentage

[Saca312]

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READ THIS FIRST:

Before you go any further, I recommend everyone read these two articles first. The first link goes over Cam Newton's 2016 season in great detail - moreso than I could - and is a piece I've been anticipating for weeks. The second one is Cian Fahey's analysis on how dated the NFL's universal measurement of "accuracy" is, and his defense for Cam Newton.

Give both of these websites a click and a read. It's worth your time. Spread it through your twitter account and whatever resources you have. 

https://brickwallblitz.wordpress.com/2017/06/28/why-cam-newton-was-still-a-great-quarterback-in-2016/

http://presnapreads.com/2017/06/28/cam-newton-is-as-inaccurate-as-steph-curry/

As I said, read those before going through what I write below. Most of it is just touching and rehashing some points made in these articles. A sampler of sorts. The full meat is in these articles. Think of the following as a "free sample" of what these go over. Trust me, they're worth it.

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The Panthers 2016 season was not the best. Ending with a 6-10 record, they did not perform to their potential. From injuries, missed opportunities, to questionable coaching, everything meshed together for one disappointing year.

On paper, Cam Newton performed horribly. After all, a league-worst 52.9% completion percentage is just plain bad. People commonly cite that Cam Newton puts too much zip on his passes and overthrows everyone without context. 

But was Cam Newton really as bad as everyone says? Does completion percentage define how good of a passer he is?

In this write-up, I will be using Kinsley's and Fahey's articles as the basis of my defense of Cam Newton. Note that there's a lot more content if you actually click the links, but the following will give basics and teasers from these sources.

The Issue With Completion Percentage

The phrase "numbers don't lie" is very common. After all, statistics generally provide an objective view on any subject matter. Completion Percentage is a statistic derived from a system used by many media outlets to determine accuracy based upon the amount of times a QB completes a pass to his wide receiver.

However, the current completion percentage system is flawed. As Fahey explains,

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Completion percentage rewards quarterbacks who throw the ball short all the time.

Take Sam Bradford for example. A big reason he set the record for completion percentage in a season last year was because of where he threw the ball. 62.13 percent of Bradford’s passes travelled fewer than five yards downfield. No other quarterback threw the ball that short that often. Newton threw 32.43 percent of his passes fewer than five yards downfield. Half the rate of Bradford.

If you compare Bradford’s 71.6 completion percentage to Newton’s 52.9 it would be like comparing Jordan’s 71.4 to Curry’s 46.8. Nobody threw the ball further than five yards downfield more often than Newton did last year. An incredibly 67.57 percent of his passes travelled further than five yards. Only Jameis Winston was anywhere near him.

In this case, the numbers do lie. Bradford was able to have such an inflated completion percentage due to his amount of short throws. On the opposite spectrum, Newton was dead last in short throw percentage. 

In a way, it's comparable to Steph Curry VS DeAndre Jordan. Fahey explains that here:

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Not a single reasonable person would suggest that Jordan is a better shooter than Curry. Nobody would call Jordan more accurate because of the numbers. Wider NBA analysis has evolved to the point that the ability to create your own shot and knock down said shot from further afield is more valuable than simply being a dunker. That 25 percent gap between the players’ numbers is offset by the value of Curry hitting three pointers at an exceptionally high rate, three pointers that are often shot off the dribble when he has created his own opportunity, something Jordan rarely ever does.

Jordan shot more inside the three point arch than outside, while Stephen Curry shoots more three pointers outside the arch. Everyone will point to Stephen Curry as a better shooter due to having a higher success rate when it came to three pointers, even when his overall accuracy may be less than normal. 

Committing to difficult shots more than the easy ones in comparison to everyone else will alter anyone's stats.

So, why isn't Cam Newton throwing more short passes? Is it by his own choice, or the system?

Matt Harmon of NFL.com answers that question. When analyzing the Panthers offense, he discovered something very crucial context-wise

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Few quarterbacks operate in an environment that creates a higher degree of difficulty. The Panthers offensive design requires Newton to hit high-degree of difficulty passes both deep and outside the numbers. Even his 20.3 tight window percentage on passes that traveled fewer than 10 yards in the air trailed only the Rams' quarterbacks. 

Mike Shula's system revolves around the deep pass and hard-to-hit style plays. Cam Newton was asked to play at an MVP-level on every single play, putting all the workload on himself. That amount of responsibility is hard on any QB, and Cam Newton realizes that:

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And maybe that's why, despite years of trying to rein himself in, the Panthers quarterback has too often listened to the voice suggesting he has to make every play. 

Cam Newton shouldn't have to make every play, and Mike Shula shouldn't encourage that mindset. 

However, that was the system ran in 2016. Make Cam do all the heavy-lifting and try to make things work. 

That is why completion percentage is such a terrible stat when it comes to accuracy, Without context, you're never going to be able to determine the true accuracy of any player. As much as people want to make completion percentage "as empirical as possible," it's simply not possible due to the many variables that affect such a complex statistic.

In reality, you want to account for as many variables as you can that can logically explain a quarterback's accuracy, That involves looking at the receiver's actions in response to a ball thrown and a set of standards to determine whether it's the QB at fault or receiver. That also includes context, such as scheme, short passes vs deep passes, and play-calling.

Fahey explains just what he does as part of determining accuracy:

When you add Fahey's numbers, this is the result of what happens to Cam's completion percentage:

A pretty huge jump, wouldn't you say? Accounts for a lot more variables as well, which leads to a much more critical, logical, and accurate answer.

Completion percentage is good to use as a base for determining a QB's accuracy, but not as an end-all. Without context, it's basically just throwing up numbers that simply don't tell the whole story. Without adjusting for circumstances, receivers, and scheme, completion percentage is a very stale measurement when determining how accurate a quarterback is.

Cian Fahey goes over this issue in depth in his article:

http://presnapreads.com/2017/06/28/cam-newton-is-as-inaccurate-as-steph-curry/

Cam Newton is a prime example of how this system of completion percentage goes against him. 

How Panthers Wide-Outs Hindered Cam Newton

Make no mistake. The Panthers wide-receivers in 2016 were terrible.

Cian Fahey sums up the issue here:

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NFL quarterbacks are at most 50 percent responsible for whether their passes are complete or not.

Newton’s receivers are big but they aren’t good. They don’t adjust well to the ball in the air and they can’t create separation. 59 times last year Newton threw an accurate pass only to have his receiver ruin the play. Only Aaron Rodgers lost more receptions to receiver error.

Kelvin Benjamin cost him 13 completions, Ted Ginn cost him 11, Devin Funchess also had 11, Corey Brown six and Greg Olsen six.

Kinsley expands on Fahey's thoughts:

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Newton lost 845 yards on these passes, also 2nd to Rodgers’ 875. (Fahey also noted that Newton’s accuracy percentage dropped below 70% in four of the last five games of the season, and he had an accuracy percentage of less than 60% in 3 of those 4 games. That was critical in making his overall completion percentage and the accuracy percentage Fahey gave him look far worse than they would have been with a healthy Newton.)

Carolina's wide receivers played a big role in Cam Newton's season.

With Kelvin Benjamin coming back for the season, everyone thought that would elevate the Panthers to one of the league's offensive juggernauts. In reality, he played just as bad as everyone else.

Kelvin Benjamin was pretty bad for a large majority of the season. Much of his yards came from an over-inflation of targets. However, his issues can be traced back to his ACL injury that he suffered. Kelvin wasn't expected to be back fully healthy until 2017 according to Matsko, and he suffered through some issues with that for a majority of the season.

Anyways, that's beside the point. Putting excuses aside, Kelvin Benjamin was plain bad in 2016.

Jonathan Kinsley goes over one of many plays where Kelvin faltered:

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Kelvin Benjamin was a part of the legendary WR Draft Class of 2014 (a class that includes Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, and UDFA Allen Hurns), but he’s heading closer to bust territory at this rate. Despite his size, he’s a receiver that lacks discipline in every area that counts. Above, Newton fires a catchable pass to Benjamin. Benjamin creates little separation on the play, and when he does get his hands on the ball (theoretically), he can’t get himself to haul it in.

The pass needed a good play from the wide receiver to complete it, but at the same time it was still an accurate pass. Benjamin’s inability to separate and soft hands botches this opportunity.

Although Kinsley likely lacked data concerning the nature of Benjamin's health for the season, he does make a good point. Kelvin Benjamin didn't perform like a 6'5 monster for most of the season. 

Kinsley goes over Benjamin and a whole host of other Panther receivers and examples in his article.

The Panthers receivers were also some of the worst when it came to gaining separation. Matt Harmon - creator of Reception Perception and NextGen Stats - explains it in detail here:

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In recent years we've seen the Carolina front office almost overcorrect in an attempt to rectify this [difficult scheme] issue by drafting behemoth receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. The trouble with that approach is that they only serve to extrapolate the high-degree of difficulty for their quarterback. Benjamin checked in with the lowest average separation on his targets (1.8 yards) and Funchess, who barely got on the field anyway, came in with the fourth lowest (2.0) among receivers who saw 20 or more targets. 

Without receivers who can separate and make life easier for Cam on a consistent basis, it's no wonder Cam's numbers didn't look good last year. With an o-line consisting of 4th stringers and practice squad players, Cam Newton's life was extremely hard.

Some argue Cam Newton doesn't go for the checkdown often, but how can you do that when your receivers and o-line basically make such impossible?

Cian Fahey explained why Carolina's receivers were no fit for the short game:

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Throwing short was an even greater challenge because receivers such as Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn aren’t good at releasing from the line of scrimmage. Even Greg Olsen is largely just a vertical threat.

When I asked Kinsley during a Q&A session via twitter whether he believed Cam Newton should've checked down more, he replied with this:

From a guy who watched every throw from Cam Newton's 2016 season, I'd say I'd trust his analysis there.

Cam Newton's o-line pretty much didn't allow for him to checkdown or consistently allow him to throw to outlet receivers. Not only that, but Cam's outlet receivers usually involved Tolbert or Fozzy. It's well known throwing it to Tolbert is like throwing it to a defender, but Fozzy shouldn't be free of any blame either.

Scott Leedy - Panther critic/fan/analyst - did a twitter thread on Cam's 2016 season. One thing that popped out was how bad Fozzy was consistently as a "3rd down back."

He was very 50/50 at catching the passes he needed to catch. He was unreliable as a checkdown receiver who will catch the ball consistently. It's fair to assume Cam didn't trust his checkdowns due to the fact they aren't reliable.

Cam's WRs in 2016 were bad. 

Underrated Parts of Cam's 2016 Season

Even with all the gloom surrounding Cam and his supporting cast, he still did an amazing job for the little he had.

Cam Newton is actually one of the more accurate passers in the NFL when you consider context. People cite his mechanics as a reason why he can't be this way, but Kinsley explains it in a different light:

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One of the more defining aspects of Newton’s style is in his arm. The range at which he throws as well as the maximum velocity and precision he has on downfield passes give him an otherworldly quality.

Newton is gifted at throwing 50-60 yards downfield without the need to step into his throws. He is rare in that while his mechanics and footwork are sloppy, they don’t really harm him, as he is comfortable from these angles and consistently throws with accuracy downfield. On the play above, the way Newton throws suggests an awkward desperation pass, but further inspection reveals that his feet were pointing at the place he was throwing Ginn open. The pass is thrown without Newton stepping in and is on time, resulting in an incredible touchdown throw.

The fact is Newton's mechanics don't matter; he's still deadly accurate in his own way. Cam Newton plays at a high level despite his "sloppy mechanics," so it really shouldn't be a debate.

Kinsley goes over plenty more plays like that.

Phillip Rivers doesn't have good mechanics either, but he's still considered an elite quarterback. Even with how old Rivers is, he's still playing at a high level. Cam Newton's the same way.

Cam Newton's accuracy is very underrated. Although his accuracy behind the LoS and 0-5 range seems low (mainly due to receiver quality and low number of attempts), his accuracy everywhere else is really good. 

Take Cian Fahey's numbers here:

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Newton was the fourth most accurate passer in the league on passes that travelled further than five yards downfield. His 68.46 percent mark was only beaten out by Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Newton was second only to Tom Brady in the 11-20 yard range, he was accurate on 70.54 percent of those throws. On 21+ yard throws, Newton ranked eighth with a 49.18 percent accuracy number.

Top 4 in the league in accuracy 5+ yards down the field in a season like 2016 says a lot. He's able to consistently hit the ball on the dime, and make unreal throws that would make anyone's jaw drop.

Take this throw I cataloged a while back. Cam Newton throws right on the dime through a very tight window. An inaccurate quarterback wouldn't be able to make this kind of throw, but Cam Newton does it on a consistent basis.

Cam Newton deals with the pocket better than most quarterbacks. Here's Kinsley touching on a bit of that:

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And when it comes to working with condensing pockets, Newton is one of the best, if not the best, quarterbacks at handling them.

Like all other great quarterbacks, Newton’s quality of play thrives under pressure. He’s always looking down the field to give his receivers a chance to make a play even if the pass protection sucks. On this play, the Saints’ front 7 pushes the pocket into Cam, but he keeps cool in spite of this. He isn’t even phased by as he makes multiple reads before moving to his right to find a wide open receiver. He gets the pass off before getting thrown to the ground.

Cam Newton had to consistently adjust in his pocket to complete a pass. With his o-line (lol Remmers) being a catastrophe, Cam often had to have a good awareness of what's going on around him to avoid getting sacked.

Matt Waldman describes Newton's great ability to do so in the below in his Rookie-Scouting Portfolio. Waldman uses Newton as the prime standard for what an NFL QB's pocket presence should look like:

Cam Newton still was a top-tier QB in 2016. Despite the naysayers trying to downgrade his season, his film shows a QB who did as much as he could with the circumstances he was given. 

As I said, if you want to dig even deeper, Kinsley has a whole lot more information I'm sure you'll enjoy in his article:

https://brickwallblitz.wordpress.com/2017/06/28/why-cam-newton-was-still-a-great-quarterback-in-2016/

So, What Now?

Matt Harmon recommended a cure for the Panther's offense back in January. 

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Still, the Panthers would be wise to alter their approach with Newton in the same way the Steelers once did with Ben Roethlisberger, as Around the NFL's Chris Wesseling suggests. This also suggests that the Panthers need to explore acquiring another receiver who can quickly separate in their routes to provide Newton an easier target for easier completions, rather than constantly asking him to rifle passes into the tight windows provided by his current mammoth wideouts.

 

By acquiring Russell Shepard in free agency, along with Curtis Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, it appears almost as if they took the advice Harmon recommended. These wide-receivers can all separate, are reliable, and can act as checkdown/slot receivers that Cam Newton missed sorely in 2016.

Kinsley showed excitement with the way the Panthers went in 2016 during the NFL draft in his thoughts below:

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The Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft to try and ease the pressure on Newton. McCaffrey was a sensational running back in college, and offers some of the most exciting play I’ve ever seen at the college level. His efficiency was tremendous and suggests he can dominate at an NFL level instantly. They won’t rush him behind Jonathan Stewart, an excellent and underrated back in his own right.

The team also drafted Curtis Samuel to help at the receiving end. Samuel is talented, and could be the #1 receiver for the Panthers by the end of the year.

These two players should be able to offer Newton some much needed help, as well as the return of several linemen.

Cian Fahey also expressed admiration:

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Throwing short was an even greater challenge because receivers such as Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn aren’t good at releasing from the line of scrimmage. Even Greg Olsen is largely just a vertical threat.

It’s why the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.

Newton’s poor accuracy numbers on shorter throws, 89.83 percent on throws behind the line of scrimmage (24th in the league) and 67.86 percent in the 1-5 yard range (32nd), should get better with receivers who can run more routes and create quicker separation. That is assuming Mike Shula incorporates play designs that don’t exclusively feature vertical releases and hard play fakes.

With guys who can release at the line of scrimmage and be playmakers anywhere on the field, the Panthers offense should only get better. Not only can they finally incorporate more short passes, they can add a whole variety of plays to their book.

Bleacher Report recently made an article on the potential of the Panthers offense. With so many hybrid players, the Panthers could literally implement the league's most complex and scary offense just based on option football.

Here's a part of it:

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McCaffrey and Samuel are multidimensional playmakers who completely change the complexion of the Carolina offense. Instead of pounding the ball between the tackles (sometimes with Newton) to set up deep shots, the Panthers are now built to get the ball to playmakers in space, both on the perimeter and short in the middle of the field.

In other words, this is a team that is custom-tuned to bring the option back the NFL.

Spread 'Em and Sweep 'Em

When McCaffrey and/or Samuel are on the field, defenses are going to respond with nickel or dime personnel so they can match speed with speed. When the Panthers then spread the field, there won't be many defenders in the box. And when Newton and one of the backs "mesh" for a handoff, the whole defense is going to freeze. That will make for some delicious misdirection goodness.

Let's expand on a simple zone-read type of play and make it a little more exotic. We'll start with linemen inside-zone blocking to the left, McCaffrey preparing for a handoff and Newton reading the backside defensive end for whether to give the ball or keep it.

But let's add an important wrinkle: Samuel motioning from a split wide receiver position, running a jet-sweep counter to the flow of the blocking. If that defensive end stays at home, McCaffrey takes the handoff and runs inside zone against what's left of the defensive box. If he crashes, Newton pulls the ball and gives it to Samuel. The Panthers get an option wrinkle and a playmaker in space without risking a hit on their quarterback.

Tanier Art Studios

The Panthers already have concepts similar to this one in their playbook. Against the Chiefs, they ran a wacky end-around to Ted Ginn Jr. that started as an outside-zone handoff to Stewart. That play got stuffed, in part because there was too much going on (the Newton-to-Stewart-to-Ginn exchange, mainly).

The sweep shown above can easily be integrated into a sequence, with a conventional handoff and some play-action passes from the same formation. That makes plays like this one hard to game-plan for—and makes the threat of them almost as dangerous as the plays themselves.

Along with a lot of other examples, the Panthers can implement so many scary playcalls with the versatility of everyone. Panthers now have reliability, playmaking, and crazy stuff for Newton, which should only elevate him at this point in his career.

Cam Newton won't have to be the one making all the plays anymore. He has playmakers all around him, and he realizes that:

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"One thing I'm excited about is throwing so many different looks and having so many multifaceted players that can do different things," Newton says. "Catching, running, even throwing. It just puts so much pressure on the defense."

"I look at a Curtis Samuel, I look at a Christian and all these guys that are new additions on this offense and it's on me now," Newton says. 

"The thing I have to realize is my job is not necessarily to always be the playmaker," Newton says. "I have to give other people opportunities to make plays. That's the hardest thing about maturation, especially for me. 

Cam Newton's 2016 season was very underrated. He had many things that worked against him. However, with the addition of new weapons, health, and playcalling, it stands to reason he'll only get better next season.

 

[UpstatePanther]

Cam Haters: "Cam Newton is so inaccurate! Derpdy-der"

@Saca312:

 

Great write up Saca! IS IT AUGUST YET?!

[yasuhara2241]

@Saca312 you do a great job at tying everything together! Saw these articles on twitter and read them again here with your insight! Thanks!

[Bytes]

True. Completion is one of many statistical points that depicts how well a QB performs. The author spends a lot of time harping on Bradfords completion percentage is misleading. In of itself he is correct. Bradford had the highest Comp % but finished 6th in QB Rating and 17th in QBR for the reason's the author mentioned.... He simply did not throw the ball down field successful enough. Cam finished 28th in QB Rating and 25 in QBR. QBR rewards a player more that QB rating for downfield passing effectiveness.Thats why his QBR ranking is higher.  For comparison and to check for consistency Ryan and Brady finished 1 and 2 in both QB Rating and QBR. 

[OneBadCat]

I do feel as though Cam made some mistakes and bad reads but I do feel he was largely victim to play calling and a weak offensive line. Also, our offense has always been a high pressure, low percentage/big play offense. That even goes back to the Smitty and Delhomme days.

As far as Cam goes I also think due to his larger than life nature and quite literally his massive size that going down field is in his instinct. He's a not a little bitch like Matt Ryan or a puney mole face human like Brees. He literally views the field as smaller and yardage as more attainable than those dudes. 

[mikeholiday]

Btw you have the wrong Jordan. Fahey was talking of DeAndre not Michael. Big big difference. 

[Jeremy Igo]

It is interesting that Cam Newton is the only QB that can take several unflagged shots to the head and receive criticism for his accuracy all at the same time. 

[mrknowitall]

For the most point, this analysis is pretty spot on. I will disagree with the remark about KB getting most of his stats during garbage time. KB's release off the LOS needs work, but in 2016 the Panthers didn't play in garbage time enough for him to compile the majority of his stats during that time. We lost ten games, and six came by three points or less. The other four were against the Vikings, the Falcons twice, and the Seahawks. KB didn't even have a catch against the Vikings, so he couldn't have compiled stats during garbage time in that one. In the first Falcons game, the Panthers had the ball, down by eight, with more than a minute to go when DA threw an interception. No garbage time there. KB only had eighteen yards against Seattle. In the final Falcons game the Panthers were down 23 to 13 at the start of the 4th. The Falcons were in a tough 3rd and 21 or something, when Davis was late recognizing his assignment and Telvin Coleman hauled in a 31 yard reception. One play later the Falcons went up by 17.

Nothing wrong with recognizing that KB and the other receivers need to play better, just like there's nothing wrong with recognizing that Cam needs to play better. But to attempt to add an asterisk to KB's number by implying that they primarily came when the games were out of hand, is unfair to KB.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

[Saca312]

9 hours ago, Bytes said:

  For comparison and to check for consistency Ryan and Brady finished 1 and 2 in both QB Rating and QBR. 

That right there is also why QBR is also flawed. Without context of whether success is scheme-related or right on the QB, you'll see those guys with inflated numbers.

Matt Ryan is the epitome of scheme related success. In a QB friendly environment, Matt Ryan threw to wide-open receivers near every play without much need for effort. Kinsley goes over that concept in detail in another post, and Fahey talks about how Ryan also had a lot of luck in avoiding turnovers even when he had plenty of turnover worthy ones last year. 

Brady isn't to the extreme of Matt Ryan, but he does have a great supporting cast and scheme. Brady does prove he can be accurate with or without scheme-related plays, while Matt Ryan's questionable in 2016. 

Simply put, context also includes scheme and quality of receiver play when determining accuracy.

[nctarheel0619]

Dude, Nate Burleson after they Drafted McCaffrey & Samuel basically stated "what's Cam's excuse now?  He has weapons.  We no longer can make excuses when he plays bad."  I was like Jesus Chris dude.  

[Jangler]

maybe Cam played poorly to get rid of Shula???

[Ball4life]

49 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

That right there is also why QBR is also flawed. Without context of whether success is scheme-related or right on the QB, you'll see those guys with inflated numbers.

Matt Ryan is the epitome of scheme related success. In a QB friendly environment, Matt Ryan threw to wide-open receivers near every play without much need for effort. Kinsley goes over that concept in detail in another post, and Fahey talks about how Ryan also had a lot of luck in avoiding turnovers even when he had plenty of turnover worthy ones last year. 

Brady isn't to the extreme of Matt Ryan, but he does have a great supporting cast and scheme. Brady does prove he can be accurate with or without scheme-related plays, while Matt Ryan's questionable in 2016. 

Simply put, context also includes scheme and quality of receiver play when determining accuracy.

Ryan wasn't throwing to wide open guys all year but continue to toot that horn. A few gifs you show means nothing. And what do you credit Ryan's success before Shanahan came along? You also realize Ryan had his BEST and WORST year under Shanahan right?

[stankowalski]

9 hours ago, mikeholiday said:

Btw you have the wrong Jordan. Fahey was talking of DeAndre not Michael. Big big difference. 

LOL...I was reading that and was ready to dismiss the whole article...good catch.

[Saca312]

1 hour ago, mrknowitall said:

But to attempt to add an asterisk to KB's number by implying that they primarily came when the games were out of hand, is unfair to KB.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

Fair enough. I was thinking of Kelvin's rookie season for some reason.