Rival Thread: How Losing Shanahan Affects The Falcons More Than Originally Thought

[Saca312]

*Note: All information is derived from this article. I highly recommend everyone click the link and view the analysis there. Anything in quotes or GIFs are from that website, so all the credit goes there. Goes over Shanahan's scheme and impact, along with Matt Ryan's performance and why it could be on a decline.

Since @Jeremy Igo began a thread on the Falcons, I thought I would start one myself on a specific topic that's been talked about a lot. The Falcons have lost a lot of staff and coordinators after the Superbowl fail, as noted here:

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Coaching Changes

The Falcons have had a whole lot of turnover in the coaching staff, most notably both coordinators. 

Offensive Coordinator - Gone

Defensive Coordinator - Gone

QB Coach - Gone

RB Coach - Gone

DL Coach - Gone

What I want to focus on is the loss of their offensive coordinator; Kyle Shanahan.

If I were to compare this to the 2016 Panthers off-season, I'd say it's on the same level as losing Josh Norman. Kyle Shanahan was key in turning the Falcons into one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Not only did Shanahan turn a wide cast of really good players into something special, he made cast-offs look like all stars.

Kinsley (article author) sums up Shanahan's offense:

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Shanahan used the assets Ryan had to create one of the league’s most quarterback friendly environments, one where easy reads where available consistently and at the right time. While in previous years, #3 had better receivers around him, in 2016 that didn’t matter.

As well as helping sign Browns center Alex Mack, Shanahan helped recruit receivers Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick Robinson (the latter of which is in San Francisco with Shanahan), two players who played under the OC in previous seasons. No one would mistake these guys for world class athletes, at least by NFL standards, but under Shanahan’s scheme. Both receivers struggle to gain separation downfield, but their speed and YAC ability can help them to be schemed open easily to fit their skill sets.

Under the Shanahan offense, both players thrived, as well as players such as Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. With all these tools, Ryan was given his most comfortable cast to work with ever, and at times it seemed like an absolute cakewalk.

In his offense, Shanahan likes to spread out routes, using misdirection, RB routes, TE throwbacks, and a wide variety of play calls to scheme receivers open and make big plays easy to create. This means that the quarterback has plenty of options to throw to and plenty of time to get the ball out of his hands, even if the offensive line isn’t up to par.

While Atlanta’s offensive line wasn’t spectacular in 2016, it didn’t need to be due to the creativity Shanahan’s offense presented. This allowed Ryan to be protected consistently even if he wasn’t by technical terms.

What this essentially means is that Atlanta's offense was geared in a way to put less of the responsibility on Matt Ryan. He didn't have to make as many difficult reads or decisions as he used to in the past because Shanahan made it so Ryan had the easiest job in the league. 

Matt Ryan used to be known for checking down too often. His decision making was questionable, and he seemed to throw a lot of stupid passes. In Shanahan's scheme, Matt Ryan's role as decision maker was reduced. It's as if Shanahan changed Matt Ryan's settings from difficult to easy.

Take a look at this GIF:

Kinsley breaks it down in the following:

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The 3 WR set on the right side of the field purposely does not separate, creating misdirection on the routes and a distraction that leaves the left side of the field completely uncovered. Ryan understands this and immediately dumps the pass off to Devonta Freeman, one of the best backs in the game. Due to the abundance of space, Freeman’s path to the end zone is an easy one.

When you look at Matt Ryan's 9.3 YPA, it's pretty impressive until you look for context. The fact is most of Matt Ryan's throws were thrown to wide open receivers who had a ton of space. This was all the work of Shanahan's scheme, and really shows you how much of an impact he was.

The following example shows this:

Kinsley breaks it down in the following:

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The play above is a staple of the Shanahan offense; the tight end throwback. Involving play action, the throwback has the QB rolling right (or left) outside the pocket, throwing to the opposite side of the field to hit a (presumably) uncovered tight end.

The 2 WR set on the left side crosses outside, while the defense takes the fake handoff bait. Austin Hooper, who catches the pass, creates a diversion by pretending to block. With the chaotic routes, the closest defender to Hooper is tricked by Ryan rolling to the right. This allows Hooper to be completely uncovered, so much so that as long as the pass was in the general area he was, it was a touchdown. Taking candy from a baby isn’t this easy.

A very impressive playcall that helped create one of our worst days defensively, and you can thank Shanahan for that. With so much confusion and intricacy thrown in his plays, it's impressive to see just how often Matt Ryan threw to wide-open receivers with a lot of space ahead of them.

Shanahan had his hand in nearly every impressive Falcon play there was. Matt Ryan had the simple task of throwing and working in his scheme, while Shanahan took care of the dirty work. 

Kinsley breaks down this play:

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Above is one of the best play calls I have ever witnessed. At first, it appears to be a five receiver set, but there’s more to it. 2 receivers run up the middle right of the field, or so it would seem. As it turns out, Coleman (lined up as a receiver on the play), cuts to the middle of the field, and with the other receiver cutting in front of Coleman to block, this creates confusion amongst the two defenders in front of them, allowing Coleman to be completely wide open. The resulting play leads to a 48-yard gain.

A beauty. Shanahan takes playcalling to the next level, and the way it all plays out is just beautiful. He completely fools the Bronco defense with this play, resulting in Coleman's 48 yard gain. As you can see, Coleman was once again wide open for Ryan's throw, showing just how easy Ryan's job is.

Shanahan inflated Ryan's stats considerably. When you look at Ryan's YPA, a large chunk is from Shanahan's scheme. Take a look at the following for context:

Kinsley breaks it down:

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Lastly, these two plays, from the same game, had the same result; a bubble screen to Gabriel for the touchdown. These resulted in touchdown passes of 35 and 25 yards, 60 of Ryan’s 269 yards on the day. When taking out those two plays and leaving in 32 attempts instead of 34, the 7.91 YPA goes down to 6.53 YPA.

Shanahan’s scheme helped create a large part of Ryan’s statistics. The 9.3 yards per attempt are impressive, but the Falcons offense in 2016 gave Ryan plenty of easy yards with targets being schemed open downfield. This, in addition with the YAC ability of Freeman and Coleman, helped make Ryan’s YPA look all the more impressive.

Next to the Patriots, the Falcons had arguably the most quarterback friendly environment in the NFL.

When you can throw to YAC machines and guys wide open in space, it's safe to say your year as a QB is going to look really good. Matt Ryan benefited a lot from his offensive coordinator and the talent surrounding him. 

If you take a look at Matt Ryan's 2016 season from the film, it's a beautiful work of art. With the way Shanahan designs and schemed up everything, it's amazing to see everything unfold in the way it has. The Falcons were able to get everyone open and making an impact while making Matt Ryan's life way easier. It set up for a Superbowl run out of nowhere and one of the league's best offenses in history.

So, what now? 

Shanahan is no longer with the Falcons after taking a head coaching gig with the 49ers. The Falcons have a new offensive coordinator who doesn't appear to be close to Shanahan's level of creativity and ability. The issue really comes back to Matt Ryan, and whether he'll be able to make intelligent decisions again or not.

It's fair to assume the offense will try to emulate what Shanahan put forth, but with NFL teams having a whole off-season to expose that, you won't be seeing a lot of new crazy ideas if it were to come from Shanahan. Ryan will likely have to work even harder than before to play at a high level as defenses sniff out Shanahan's old tricks and new playcalls that aren't as complex. 

One thing that should be noted is just how lucky Matt Ryan was in 2016. Take a look at this stat from Cian Fahey of Football Outsiders:

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Cian Fahey of Pre Snap Reads calculated that Ryan threw 23 passes that could have been intercepted, 17th most in his QB Catalogue book. The percentage of his passes that were interceptable was 3.64%, 11th most in the league. In the passage for Ryan, Fahey concluded that he felt Ryan played good, not great, in 2016, and that the INTable stats weren’t quite as impressive because of the execution of the offense around him.

Kinsley's article goes over those deficiencies and others as well. He brings up a valid point when talking of these mistakes:

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The point is that if Ryan was still making these mistakes (albeit less than in 2015) under the 2nd most QB friendly environment, how much would this come up with new coordinator Steve Sarkisian? There comes the concern. Sarkisian can potentially be a good coordinator in the NFL coming from college, but I’m not sure he can be nearly as good as Shanahan. If he adapts the offense and doesn’t stay true to the system the team ran last year, we could see the mistakes pop up more and more.

I probably wouldn’t be so concerned if I was secure about Ryan’s arm strength. He’s been able to make up for a lack of a great arm with quick instincts and anticipation, but there were signs in 2016 that it was on the decline.

With Matt Ryan's arm not looking as good as it once was, and Shanahan not being there to guide Matt Ryan down the easy road, it's safe to assume the Falcons offense will decline in 2017. 

Shanahan was the best thing to happen to Ryan. His style of offensive and scheming allowed for a massive variety of open receivers and opportunities for Ryan to stack up yards and touchdowns. Despite not having the best individual supporting cast in and of the players, the coaching and scheming of the players allowed for Ryan’s most comfortable offense.

With Sarkisian coming in, it's a case where you just don't know what you're getting. Coming from a college program, he could have his own share of creative plays the NFL doesn't know about yet. However, it's highly doubtful he'll be able to replicate the success Shanahan came up with. Combine that with the fact Ryan may be on a decline, and it's a much tougher situation.

To sum it up: Shanahan made Matt Ryan and the Falcons look insanely good. The talent surrounding Matt Ryan made it easier as well. Everyone was wide open and did all the work for Matt Ryan. Now they don't have Shanahan, and Matt Ryan's arm strength may be on a decline. This should lead to a regression in 2017.

Thoughts?

[Ball4life]

You're funny Saca. So Ryan is on the decline based on what? And please explain why Ryan had some of the best numbers in the league why under pressure last year?? 

[Hoenheim]

I'm more interested to see what this guy does with inferior talent on the 49ers offense against us in week 1. 

[Saca312]

6 minutes ago, Ball4life said:

You're funny Saca. So Ryan is on the decline based on what? And please explain why Ryan had some of the best numbers in the league why under pressure last year?? 

To answer your first question: His arm strength. Here's a bit more into that:

I probably wouldn’t be so concerned if I was secure about Ryan’s arm strength. He’s been able to make up for a lack of a great arm with quick instincts and anticipation, but there were signs in 2016 that it was on the decline.

Despite the win against the Raiders, there were several scenarios where Ryan’s arm had the power of a toy cannon. Arm strength isn’t a major deal breaker, but a declining arm can impact the velocity of a quarterback’s passes and how far it travels.

In the first play above, Ryan’s pass doesn’t even come close to hitting his target’s breadbasket. The pass just hits the turf (or baseball field, whatever works). In the 2nd play, the Falcons run another TE throwback similar to the one against the Panthers. But while the Panthers one resulted in a touchdown due to how open Hooper was, in this play, the defender is closer. Ryan’s lack of juice on the pass results in Hooper slowing down his stride in order to make the catch, preventing a touchdown.

Ryan’s downfield accuracy was good in 2016, but not great, and plays like the one above were the reason for that. Here, #3 air mails it out to Jones. The receiver is so wide open that it should’ve a walk to the end zone after he caught it. Instead, Ryan’s pass sails wide, forcing Julio to adjust to even make the catch. The Falcons would later settle for a field goal on this drive.

This throw isn’t easy to make, but it isn’t impossible like Ryan makes it. A QB with the arm strength, control, and velocity of Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, or Russell Wilson would be able to make this throw in stride. Here, Ryan’s pass look like it just sailed.

On Atlanta’s final possession against Seattle, defensive pass interference should have been but wasn’t called on the Seahawks when Julio Jones was held by Richard Sherman, but it wouldn’t have been a problem had Julio been provided a better pass. On the All-22 angle, it is clearly shown that Julio has beaten coverage and would be able to score the game winning touchdown with a precise pass.

Instead, Ryan’s arm prevents the pass from getting to where it should be. Ryan can mask the arm strength downfield by anticipating a route opening, but here, Julio was open as Ryan got rid of the ball. The pass sails a bit wide and is underthrown.

Finally, on this play, Ryan’s pass is again nearly picked. The hitch in his motion helps, but the throw lacks the juice one would expect on a strike down the middle. The arm strength was an issue that happened on more than just the plays I showed, but I wanted to present a glimpse of what I was seeing.

For your second question: Shanahan. He made everything easy, as the whole main post above shows.

[Cary Kollins]

tldr all I know is the Falcons are going to be the suck next season

 

Fluke year and their OC was replaced by an alcoholic.

[Ball4life]

1 minute ago, Saca312 said:

To answer your first question: His arm strength. Here's a bit more into that:

I probably wouldn’t be so concerned if I was secure about Ryan’s arm strength. He’s been able to make up for a lack of a great arm with quick instincts and anticipation, but there were signs in 2016 that it was on the decline.

Despite the win against the Raiders, there were several scenarios where Ryan’s arm had the power of a toy cannon. Arm strength isn’t a major deal breaker, but a declining arm can impact the velocity of a quarterback’s passes and how far it travels.

In the first play above, Ryan’s pass doesn’t even come close to hitting his target’s breadbasket. The pass just hits the turf (or baseball field, whatever works). In the 2nd play, the Falcons run another TE throwback similar to the one against the Panthers. But while the Panthers one resulted in a touchdown due to how open Hooper was, in this play, the defender is closer. Ryan’s lack of juice on the pass results in Hooper slowing down his stride in order to make the catch, preventing a touchdown.

Ryan’s downfield accuracy was good in 2016, but not great, and plays like the one above were the reason for that. Here, #3 air mails it out to Jones. The receiver is so wide open that it should’ve a walk to the end zone after he caught it. Instead, Ryan’s pass sails wide, forcing Julio to adjust to even make the catch. The Falcons would later settle for a field goal on this drive.

This throw isn’t easy to make, but it isn’t impossible like Ryan makes it. A QB with the arm strength, control, and velocity of Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, or Russell Wilson would be able to make this throw in stride. Here, Ryan’s pass look like it just sailed.

On Atlanta’s final possession against Seattle, defensive pass interference should have been but wasn’t called on the Seahawks when Julio Jones was held by Richard Sherman, but it wouldn’t have been a problem had Julio been provided a better pass. On the All-22 angle, it is clearly shown that Julio has beaten coverage and would be able to score the game winning touchdown with a precise pass.

Instead, Ryan’s arm prevents the pass from getting to where it should be. Ryan can mask the arm strength downfield by anticipating a route opening, but here, Julio was open as Ryan got rid of the ball. The pass sails a bit wide and is underthrown.

Finally, on this play, Ryan’s pass is again nearly picked. The hitch in his motion helps, but the throw lacks the juice one would expect on a strike down the middle. The arm strength was an issue that happened on more than just the plays I showed, but I wanted to present a glimpse of what I was seeing.

Lol wow. Only you would say he's declining after a historical season. A few gifs doesn't change anything. If he was a Panther you would be creating threads on how hes ready to duplicate the season he just had without Shanahan.

[theDIRTYcode2]

While I agree KS was at times a brilliant play caller, if it was just his scheme, shouldn't Matt have been good year 1 with it, instead of posting his career worst season?

Matt has never had the big arm, but he's always been extremely football smart. I don't expect that to change at all. 

Us and New Orleans run similar offenses, hell if you ask them we ripped them off. If Brees can do it at 40, I'm okay with Ryan for the next 6 years barring major injury.

[Saca312]

6 minutes ago, theDIRTYcode2 said:

While I agree KS was at times a brilliant play caller, if it was just his scheme, shouldn't Matt have been good year 1 with it, instead of posting his career worst season?

Shanahan had arguably the most complex scheme in the league. It'll take a while to get used to and learn, but once done, it makes the QB's life a lot easier. That's why you saw Matt Ryan falter a bit trying to figure out the complexity of the magic. 

[UpstatePanther]

32 minutes ago, Ball4life said:

You're funny Saca. So Ryan is on the decline based on what? And please explain why Ryan had some of the best numbers in the league why under pressure last year?? 

Did you even read any of what @Saca312 wrote? It doesn't appear that you did. Either that or your a homer Falcon fan with nothing better to do than weakly troll a rival fan forum. Neither option bodes well for you mental capacity.

[Cary Kollins]

oh yeah and lol if you guys think 28-3 is going to mindfug the poo out of your team during the first hint of adversity

[Ball4life]

1 minute ago, UpstatePanther said:

Did you even read any of what @Saca312 wrote? It doesn't appear that you did. Either that or your a homer Falcon fan with nothing better to do than weakly troll a rival fan forum. Neither option bodes well for you mental capacity.

Yeah claiming Ryan is not declining after an MVP season is clearly because I'm trolling. 

[theDIRTYcode2]

9 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Shanahan had arguably the most complex scheme in the league. It'll take a while to get used to and learn, but once done, it makes the QB's life a lot easier. That's why you saw Matt Ryan falter a bit trying to figure out the complexity of the magic. 

So since we aren't changing schemes, and Ryan has it figured out now, it basically boils down to Sark being at least a "good" play caller. I can live with that.

But I tell you what, if that SOB doesn't run the football 3 times and kick if given the opportunity, I'll burn flowery branch to the ground myself. Then we can discuss the next OC.

[Cyberjag]

1 hour ago, Ball4life said:

Yeah claiming Ryan is not declining after an MVP season is clearly because I'm trolling. 

I think he said that Ryan's arm strength is on the decline, which is pretty normal for a QB in his 30s.  They make up for it by being smarter and better able to read defenses.  Ryan may not be as strong as he was in his mid 20s, but he's a better QB now and still one of the tops in the league.

I love how Cam can incorporate a power running game into his repertoire, but if he's still doing it at 32 I'm going to be a little surprised, and not at all surprised if he's not as effective.  I hope he's a better QB by then regardless.

QBs change, don't be so sensitive about it. 

[Ball4life]

32 minutes ago, Cyberjag said:

I think he said that Ryan's arm strength is on the decline, which is pretty normal for a QB in his 30s.  They make up for it by being smarter and better able to read defenses.  Ryan may not be as strong as he was in his mid 20s, but he's a better QB now and still one of the tops in the league.

I love how Cam can incorporate a power running game into his repertoire, but if he's still doing it at 32 I'm going to be a little surprised, and not at all surprised if he's not as effective.  I hope he's a better QB by then regardless.

QBs change, don't be so sensitive about it. 

Because Ryan's arm strength has never been his strength and I find it funny that a few examples of under thrown balls = he is declining...especially after the season he just had. Ryan just turned 32...QB's usually don't decline that early.