Mini Camp Observations Day 1

[LinvilleGorge]

22 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

Dvoa I think measures its ranking by snaps. I don't need dvoa to see Stewart struggles mighty to catch the ball in the flats.

 

Meh one year doesn't make it the standard. With volume you can make any RB stats look somewhat decent.

Snaps don't mean anything in terms of judging a guy as a receiver unless he's actually acting as a receiver.

You can't make a guy who isn't good at something look good simply by giving him additional opportunities. If anything, you're more likely to expose his weaknesses in that area. 

Again, the bottom line is that when Stew was asked to so it, he did it at a high level. He hasn't been asked to do much receiving under Shula and as such we can likely assume he was being asked to work on that skill set less. So, logic would follow that those skills would erode to some degree. It's also difficult to draw any real conclusions when working with tiny sample sizes.

Honestly, I find it awkward to discuss stats with peoole who demonstrate a clear lack of fundamentals in statistics. No offense, I just wish that people who didn't have a decent understanding of statistical concepts would avoid getting into these types of debates.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

2 minutes ago, bull123 said:

I don't consider 8 drops good at all...he is a pro, why does he ever drop anything...these guys that don't perform are in need of replacing...CMC can catch I hear

Good grief. Even Steve Smith dropped some passes. It happens. There is no evidence that all 8 of those were drops anyway. Some of them were actually inaccurate passes too. Plus, Cam does have a habit of smoking those short passes in there sometimes.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, bull123 said:

I don't consider 8 drops good at all...he is a pro, why does he ever drop anything...these guys that don't perform are in need of replacing...CMC can catch I hear

Incompletion doesn't automatically equate to a drop.

[GoobyPls]

30 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Snaps don't mean anything in terms of judging a guy as a receiver unless he's actually acting as a receiver.

You can't make a guy who isn't good at something look good simply by giving him additional opportunities. If anything, you're more likely to expose his weaknesses in that area. 

Again, the bottom line is that when Stew was asked to so it, he did it at a high level. He hasn't been asked to do much receiving under Shula and as such we can likely assume he was being asked to work on that skill set less. So, logic would follow that those skills would erode to some degree. It's also difficult to draw any real conclusions when working with tiny sample sizes.

Honestly, I find it awkward to discuss stats with peoole who demonstrate a clear lack of fundamentals in statistics. No offense, I just wish that people who didn't have a decent understanding of statistical concepts would avoid getting into these types of debates.

He's not used as a receiver cause he's not good, is that simple. You are using one season as the prime example, by that logic going by Fitzpatrick's 2015 season he's the greatest jet QB ever.

 

You really think the coaches will hold back someone whose such a great receiving threat? I mean really?

 

Like I said already you don't need statistics to see Stewart drop every pass that goes his way 

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

He's not used as a receiver cause he's not good, is that simple. You are using one season as the prime example, by that logic going by Fitzpatrick's 2015 season he's the greatest jet QB ever.

 

You really think the coaches will hold back someone whose such a great receiving threat? I mean really?

 

Like I said already you don't need statistics to see Stewart drop every pass that goes his way 

Maybe you missed this...

15 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think it's more that we simply didn't throw to RBs much at all. We threw to RBs 70 times last year out of 563 attempts. That's 12.4% of our passes going to a RB/FB.

Compre that to the Falcons. They threw to their backs 117 times out of 527 attempts. That's 21.8% of attempts to a RB/FB.

That's a massive discrepancy.

A lot of people knock Cam's accuracy and it can he admittedly sporadic at times, but the guy is consistently throwing the toughest passes that an NFL QB has to throw. He's consistently throwing down the field to blanketed receivers.

We simply throw to RBs a lot less than most other teams and that's been the case ever since Shula has been the OC.

Your comments about Stewart are blatantly and demonstrably false. 

The reason I'm so heavily relying on one season is because that's the only season that we've actually heavily used Stew as a receiver, but let's go a little deeper anyway...

In 5 non-Shula seasons:

98 catches on 141 targets for 859 yards. That's a 69.5% catch rate and 8.7ypc. It's also worth noting that he improved dramatically as a receiver after his rookie year. He only caught 47% of his targets as a rookie. 

In 4 Shula seasons:

56 catches on 80 targets for 384 yards. That's a 70% catch rate and 6.9ypc. It's also worth noting that figure is heavily skewed by a very down year last season where he only caught 38% of his targets, albeit it on only a total of 21 targets.

In terms of catch rate, last season was an anomaly if you look at his career as a whole. His catch rate overall has remained similar under Shula, but utilization and yards per catch are down.

In short, statistical analysis suggests that it's no Stewart's lack of ability, it's offensive scheme and lack of usage in that area.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

He's not used as a receiver cause he's not good, is that simple. You are using one season as the prime example, by that logic going by Fitzpatrick's 2015 season he's the greatest jet QB ever.

 

You really think the coaches will hold back someone whose such a great receiving threat? I mean really?

 

Like I said already you don't need statistics to see Stewart drop every pass that goes his way 

So you have any reading comprehension and/or critical thinking skills what so ever? Go back and re-read my post and try again.

[GoobyPls]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Maybe you missed this...

We simply throw to RBs a lot less than most other teams and that's been the case ever since Shula has been the OC.

Your comments about Stewart are blatantly and demonstrably false. 

The reason I'm so heavily relying on one season is because that's the only season that we've actually heavily used Stew as a receiver, but let's go a little deeper anyway...

In 5 non-Shula seasons:

98 catches on 141 targets for 859 yards. That's a 69.5% catch rate and 8.7ypc. It's also worth noting that he improved dramatically as a receiver after his rookie year. He only caught 47% of his targets as a rookie. 

In 4 Shula seasons:

56 catches on 80 targets for 384 yards. That's a 70% catch rate and 6.9ypc. It's also worth noting that figure is heavily skewed by a very down year last season where he only caught 38% of his targets, albeit it on only a total of 21 targets.

In terms of catch rate, last season was an anomaly if you look at his career as a whole. His catch rate overall has remained similar under Shula, but utilization and yards per catch are down.

In short, statistical analysis suggests that it's no Stewart's lack of ability, it's offensive scheme and lack of usage in that area.

We do use our backs as receiving options (not as much as other teams) just look at Fozzy who in 200 less snaps had more receiving yards than Stewart. Tolbert since 2012 has also out produced Stewart.

 

Every statistics points at Stewart being a bad receiving back, the fact that the coaches trust a 5'8 260 pound fullback over Stewart should answer all you need to know.

You can keep blaming the scheme all you want, but if he can't catch a simple flat route theirs no scheme to fit him in.

[LinvilleGorge]

OMG dude...

Yes, it is scheme when t comes to opportunities. As I've shown repeatedly through statistics, Stew has been a good receiver throughout his career when given opportunities. Fozzy has more yardage due to more opportunities. These aren't difficult things to understand. 

It likely has a lot less to do with trust and a lot more to do with simply utilizing other backs in the passing game in order to reduce Stew's workload given his age and injury history. 3rd and long? Fozzy is a good receiving back, play him instead.

Every statistic points to Stew being a  bad receiving back? Which statistics? I've pretty thoroughly demonstrated the opposite.

[LinvilleGorge]

@KB_fan maybe someone else taking a look at the data can help this guy out. I've tried.

[GoobyPls]

200 less snaps = more opportunities?

Again Stewart had one anomaly year and all of a sudden he's a good receiver. And the coaches are purposely holding him back. Jesus Christ....

 

Fo you even watch the games? Did you miss all those dropped passes 

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

200 less snaps = more opportunities?

Again Stewart had one anomaly year and all of a sudden he's a good receiver. And the coaches are purposely holding him back. Jesus Christ....

 

Fo you even watch the games? Did you miss all those dropped passes 

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

LOLOLOLOLOL

Like I just said, Fozzy is primarily used as the receiving back. Like I tried to tell you earlier regarding DVOA, a snap does not equal a receiving opportunity.

I've already said that Stew had a very down year last year in terms of catch percentage.