Bill Barnwell really, really, hated the signing of Matt Kalil & ignores our Draft: Gives us a C+ Offseason.

[nctarheel0619]

What went right

The Panthers were able to build a deep pass rush for relatively cheap. Even after trading Kony Ealy to the Patriots, the Panthers are stout at defensive end with players on below-market deals. Carolina was able to hold onto the wildly underrated Mario Addison, who has 22 sacks over the past three seasons, by giving him a three-year deal worth $22.5 million with just $9 million in guarantees. Charles Johnson, who took a $3 million deal last season to stay in Carolina, picked up a modest raise by jumping to two years and $8 million with just $2.8 million in guarantees.

The returning Julius Peppers finished the trio out by taking a one-year, $3.5 million contract to presumably finish his career where it started. He had 7.5 sacks and 11 knockdowns in a limited role for the Packers last season. Throw in Wes Horton and third-round pick Daeshon Hall, who might end up as an edge-setter on early downs and an interior rusher in passing situations, and you have a rotation with all kinds of interesting pieces.

They locked up Kawann Short. In the absence of a true star defensive end, the Panthers needed to pay their best pass-rusher, even if he comes from the interior. Short is a consistent disruptor against overmatched guards and centers, having racked up 10 or more knockdowns in each of his four seasons. The only 4-3 defensive tackles with more tackles for loss against the run last season were Aaron Donald, Alan Branch and Michael Bennett. Short was able to extract $51 million over the first three years of his deal, which is right in line with the $47.8 million Fletcher Cox picked up over the first three years of his extension after you account for the rise in the salary cap between 2016 and 2017. Short is unlikely to be a bargain at that rate, but the Panthers needed to retain young talent after giving away Josh Norman last offseason.

What went wrong

The Matt Kalil contract. You can understand why the Panthers would want a left tackle, given how Michael Oher missed 13 games with a serious concussion and might not be able to play in 2017. The Panthers also lost right tackle Mike Remmers to the Vikings during free agency and the draft was historically thin along the offensive line, making their need for tackle help even more pressing. They've had success buying low on unwanted players like Oher in years past, so it's reasonable to think that general manager Dave Gettleman would trust his coaching staff's ability to make chicken soup out of chicken feathers.

You can understand why the Panthers might pursue Matt Kalil, especially because his brother, Ryan, is their star center. Price matters, though, and the Panthers paid a heavy premium for a player who has seen a promising career sapped by injuries. He really hasn't been an effective tackle since his rookie season in 2012, and he has been downright awful during stretches over the ensuing few seasons. Kalil was playing through pain and underwent multiple offseason knee surgeries in Minnesota before undergoing season-ending hip surgery after two games last season.

Giving Kalil a one-year contract with incentives or the sort of one-plus-an-option deals Russell Okung and Kelvin Beachum signed last season would have been one thing. Instead, though, the Panthers bit big. Kalil's listed five-year, $55.5 million deal is a misnomer, but it's realistically either a one-year, $13.6 million contract or a two-year, $25.5 million deal at its low end. Andrew Whitworth, who is older but has been one of the best tackles in football over the past several seasons, was able to rack up only $23 million on the first two years of his deal with the Rams, and even that deal has more flexibility than Kalil's in the short term. It's hard to find a worse contract handed out in free agency this offseason.

What's next?

Re-sign Trai Turner. The Panthers are likely ruing that they weren't able to lock up their star guard before the market for interior linemen took a leap forward in free agency. The two-time Pro Bowler is another one of the stars from the same LSU offense that produced Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Jeremy Hill in the 2014 draft, and given that Turner still hasn't even turned 24, he's going to get an enormous contract if the Panthers don't keep him from free agency.

The franchise tag is unlikely, too, because it's tied to the far more lucrative compensation of tackles and will be in excess of $15 million in 2018. The Browns gave Kevin Zeitler a five-year, $60-million deal with $23 million guaranteed at signing and $38 million over the first three years of his deal. Zeitler's also already 27 and yet to make a Pro Bowl during his career. If Turner's suiting up for the Panthers in 2018, it may very well be as the highest-paid guard in the league

Grade: C+

Gave the Falcons a B+, Bucs a B, Saints a B.  

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell2017GradesNFCSouth/bill-barnwell-2017-nfl-offseason-report-card-free-agency-draft-nfc-south-atlanta-falcons-carolina-panthers-new-orleans-saints-tampa-bay-buccaneers

@15

[Daeavorn]

Bill Barnwell is a humongous Pats homer, so I'm sure he's penalizing us for the Kony trade.

[Cyberjag]

Weird that we're the only NFCS team where he barely mentioned the draft, but he did bring up Daeshon Hall at least.  He just really, really hates the Kalil signing.  But then again, he really really hated the Oher signing too.

[GoobyPls]

If Kalil keeps playing like he did the last couple of seasons it will be a giant waste of money.

[caatfan]

Billy Barnwell ranks right up there with Billy Bush in my book. He talks about Kalil's past injuries and assumes he's done as a good player because of them. Players, especially at 27, ARE capable of recovering from injuries. Way too soon to call it a bad FA signing.

[uncfan888]

Welp, season's over guys. If only Barnwell was our GM

[dpm0409]

48 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

Welp, season's over guys. If only Barnwell was our GM

[Servant of Cthululelei]

1 hour ago, caatfan said:

Billy Barnwell ranks right up there with Billy Bush in my book. He talks about Kalil's past injuries and assumes he's done as a good player because of them. Players, especially at 27, ARE capable of recovering from injuries. Way too soon to call it a bad FA signing.

I'm not familiar with Billy Bush, but I will say that have some respect for the fact that Bill Barnwell is consistent in his approach to evaluation. He ALWAYS uses this formula: past performance +/- "regression to the mean" = future production.

I do think that approach is very limiting though. Particularly in the case of a young player who has had unfortunate injury issues.  Everything is numbers that do very little to take into account external variables.

[KillerKat]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

If Kalil keeps playing like he did the last couple of seasons it will be a giant waste of money.

Good thing the contract was written basically as a 2 year prove it deal. We can cut him within those first 2 years with a manageable cap hit.

[PhillyB]

barnwell generally knows what he's talking about. C+ is a little low but he's right, matt kalil is a tremendous gamble. the season hinges on him in many ways.

[bleedsgreenandgold]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

If Kalil keeps playing like he did the last couple of seasons it will be a giant waste of money.

Captain Obvious, ladies and gentlemen...

[bleedsgreenandgold]

43 minutes ago, dpm0409 said:

Damn dude, save some p***y for the rest of us.

[nctarheel0619]

9 minutes ago, KillerKat said:

Good thing the contract was written basically as a 2 year prove it deal. We can cut him within those first 2 years with a manageable cap hit.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/carolina-panthers

Here's the issue, yeah.  That 14.8 million in dead money would suck so much ass.  

[tiger7_88]

10 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

barnwell generally knows what he's talking about. C+ is a little low but he's right, matt kalil is a tremendous gamble. the season hinges on him in many ways.

Problem is that his main problem is that we "overpaid" for Kalil.  

Then he goes on to explain to himself how we actually did NOT "overpay" for Kalil.

But then he goes on to ignore said advice that he helpfully provided to himself as well as to ignore almost the entirety of the Panther's draft.

I've read Barnwell before and liked some (not all) of his stuff.  This is not one of those times.  Its ignorance, pure and simple.  Why?  I dunno, but it is.

Edit:  By the way:

Gil Brandt >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bill Barnwell