"Cam Newton Isn't Accurate." Is That Really True? A Quick Look At Why Shula Is To Blame, And The Offense

[Saca312]

Just now, Hogmolliesmaht said:

Dude, did you not watch your own video? If Cam throws that ball right when the slot receiver makes his break and leads him, he has ten yards separation on any defender on the field. He held the ball too long. That's just a fact.

I watched my own video.

Fact is two defenders had him accounted for. The safety and the other corner has him locked up if Cam threw to him. The ball would likely be contested if Cam was lucky.

This isn't high school football or college where defensive backs seem slow. NFL speed is real fast, and Seattle's secondary is full of them.

Cam never held any ball too long. That's just a fact. It was never going to be a smart throw if he made that one you're talking about.

 

 

[pstall]

How many throws in the sample size for accuracy?

[Saca312]

Just now, pstall said:

How many throws in the sample size for accuracy?

All of the 2016 season, with parts from all of the 2015 season.

[pstall]

Just now, Saca312 said:

All of the 2016 season, with parts from all of the 2015 season.

Sorry.  I should have clarified. The short throws accuracy #'s.

[Saca312]

Just now, pstall said:

Sorry.  I should have clarified. The short throws accuracy #'s.

The tweet from the 11-15yd area?

Sample size is all of 2016. 

He has an in-depth analysis on every QB in the NFL here:

http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/29/pre-snap-reads-quarterback-catalogue-2017-19-99/

[Saca312]

Let me break it down for you @Hogmolliesmaht:

Here's the situation. 

1 is the route the wide-receiver originally ran. As you can see, the Seattle safety is locked on and would be ready to counter immediately. Without a doubt this would've been a pick had the ball been in the air right about here. 

2 is the other option that might've occurred based on where Cam throws it. The defensive back is on a full on sprint, and the slot receiver would have to plant his foot hard and stutter a bit to cut his momentum to that angle. Not the best option route at all, and the defensive back would've been all over him.

Again, I don't see where you think he's wide open whatsoever.

 

 

[Hogmolliesmaht]

1 hour ago, Saca312 said:

Let me break it down for you @Hogmolliesmaht:

Here's the situation. 

1 is the route the wide-receiver originally ran. As you can see, the Seattle safety is locked on and would be ready to counter immediately. Without a doubt this would've been a pick had the ball been in the air right about here. 

2 is the other option that might've occurred based on where Cam throws it. The defensive back is on a full on sprint, and the slot receiver would have to plant his foot hard and stutter a bit to cut his momentum to that angle. Not the best option route at all, and the defensive back would've been all over him.

Again, I don't see where you think he's wide open whatsoever.

 

 

Where you have that video stopped, the ball should already be hitting the slot guy in the chest. That's what I mean about anticipating the throw. Even if you discount that that though, look at the underneath route. It's as wide open as they come. Just imagine if that's McCaffery and he hits him in stride.

[Saca312]

3 minutes ago, Hogmolliesmaht said:

Where you have that video stopped, the ball should already be hitting the slot guy in the chest. That's what I mean about anticipating the throw. Even if you discount that that though, look at the underneath route. It's as wide open as they come. Just imagine if that's McCaffery and he hits him in stride.

If Newton threw it there 3 defenders would be all over that ball and there's about no chance that it isn't picked.

Safety would read Newton like a book and be right on that slot receiver with the two defenders the slot swung by ready to go for the ball at that point instead of watching for Kelvin Benjamin.

As far as the underneath route, that could've been an option, but not close to a first down whatsoever. Plus that's Tolbert we're looking at if I'm not mistaken. You have to consider context, and it's very likely the Panthers had a couple downs to spare. Newton went for the deep ball because he could afford it, but he had to do it in hopes Kelvin Benjamin would use his size in this situation, as that was the only best option.

[PrimeTimeHeel]

44 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

If Newton threw it there 3 defenders would be all over that ball and there's about no chance that it isn't picked.

Safety would read Newton like a book and be right on that slot receiver with the two defenders the slot swung by ready to go for the ball at that point instead of watching for Kelvin Benjamin.

As far as the underneath route, that could've been an option, but not close to a first down whatsoever. Plus that's Tolbert we're looking at if I'm not mistaken. You have to consider context, and it's very likely the Panthers had a couple downs to spare. Newton went for the deep ball because he could afford it, but he had to do it in hopes Kelvin Benjamin would use his size in this situation, as that was the only best option.

 

 

LMAO @ the rationalizing that isnt open. 

That is a text book anticipation window throw in between the zones. 

He is going to get popped but that is expected when you go over the middle of the field. 

Unless Cam throws a duck or the DBs have Goku's teleport ability that is not getting picked if Cam lasers it in the window before the WR makes his cut. 

It's all about timing and execution. 

 

[panthers55]

There is so much fail in the OP post. First of all separation is measured vertically and horizontally. KB is never going to get a lot of separation given he isn't super fast. But he can jump 3 ft in the air plus with his wing span can snag a ball thrown 10 ft in the air. The defender might be right beside him but isn't going to get the ball from him. Secondly when your top receiver is an​ tight end how much separation are you going to get? Olsen uses his body to shield defenders and makes great catches so did he need great separation?
Let's talk about Cam. How many times does he zero in on one receiver and throw it into a tight window downfield when there are wide open receivers elsewhere or a back wide open in the flat? How many times does Cam hold the ball and wait until he see the receiver open and then throws it which allows the defender to close the space and defend the throw. Plus Cam prefers the direct flat throws and often can't make the touch throws over the top. So defenders can sit on the out routes and the flat throws over the middle ignoring the soft throw over the top allowing the receiver to run to the ball. Finally how often does Cam hit the receiver early in the pattern versus holding it and forcing it when he feels pressure. I agree we haven't had a bunch of good receivers but Cam is his own worst enemy and contributes to many of the problems blamed on everyone else.

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[Saca312]

40 minutes ago, PrimeTimeHeel said:

LMAO @ the rationalizing that isnt open. 

That is a text book anticipation window throw in between the zones. 

He is going to get popped but that is expected when you go over the middle of the field. 

Unless Cam throws a duck or the DBs have Goku's teleport ability that is not getting picked if Cam lasers it in the window before the WR makes his cut. 

It's all about timing and execution. 

 

Again, I'm accounting for what Earl Thomas is about to do if Cam threw it to the slot.

Earl Thomas would get there easy, and he wouldn't have stepped back as far as he did. Cam Newton throws some laser darts, but that's gonna be real hard when you're likely having an all-pro safety all over you. 

As I said, I account for what the defense will likely do based on the situation. That would not have looked that open when Earl Thomas reads he's not throwing it to Kelvin Benjamin.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

2 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Let me break it down for you @Hogmolliesmaht:

Here's the situation. 

1 is the route the wide-receiver originally ran. As you can see, the Seattle safety is locked on and would be ready to counter immediately. Without a doubt this would've been a pick had the ball been in the air right about here. 

2 is the other option that might've occurred based on where Cam throws it. The defensive back is on a full on sprint, and the slot receiver would have to plant his foot hard and stutter a bit to cut his momentum to that angle. Not the best option route at all, and the defensive back would've been all over him.

Again, I don't see where you think he's wide open whatsoever.

 

 

I'm sorry but you're blind if you can't see that there are two guys who are open. Yeah the slot guy might take a hit but if the ball is on target and on time, it's a completion for a first down. As for the check down, it's a one on one match up after he catches the ball and it's at least a 6-7 yd gain if the guy makes a text book tackle. If the Rb makes him miss, it's a huge play. That's exactly what we're all looking for with CMC. Let's see him shake that first guy and watch him go.

[Saca312]

Just now, Hogmolliesmaht said:

I'm sorry but you're blind if you can't see that there are two guys who are open. Yeah the slot guy might take a hit but if the ball is on target and on time, it's a completion for a first down. As for the check down, it's a one on one match up after he catches the ball and it's at least a 6-7 yd gain if the guy makes a text book tackle. If the Rb makes him miss, it's a huge play.

Again, that's a much harder throw than you originally saying "oh lulz it's an easy 10 yard separation type of throw" and no one is accounting for Earl Thomas reading Cam Newton throwing to Kelvin Benjamin. Thomas would read Cam to the slot if Cam threw that way without a problem. 

I can't believe I'm arguing this with you.

And I never said Cam couldn't have checked down with Fatbert if he wanted to. I just said you have to consider context, and it's likely we could afford to hit downfield.

Lord, and that gif was just to point out that our WRs don't get much separation. Not to mention the fact that was from fugging 2014.

[OneBadCat]

This is a good piece. I've said for a while now our offense relies way too heavily on huge plays and key 3rd down conversions. To be honest that even goes back to before Cam in the Delhomme days. The offense has always relied way too heavily on its best players. From Smitty, to Stewart, Cam, Olsen, KB, etc.