Matt Harmon: Why Pairing Cam Newton And Christian McCaffrey Will Revolutionize The Panthers

[Saca312]

A very good read. The same guy that made the article about how our WRs couldn't ever get separation and how Cam was the league's most aggressive QB now is saying this duo of Cam and McCaffrey will transform the league:

Enjoy:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=sundaymorningcomingdown3

Quote

I'm buried in numbers on a regular basis. Whether it's from those I chart for Reception Perception, nuggets dug up from scouring game logs or even passed along from the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking data, I'm not short on stats. Some of my co-workers even assigned me the mockingly authoritative "captain spreadsheet" nickname.  

However, I'm not a fan of all football stats. To be quite honest with you, there are more than few that I actively dislike, or find flat-out terrible and outright deceptive in the pursuit of understanding what matters on the football field. 

The statistics that I tend to gravitate toward as items that are consequential and descriptive of the reality of the game are those that can actually be well-explained in a typical football sense. This is why last offseason, when I read Brian Malone's discovery that running quarterbacks throw to their running backs less often than the average signal-caller, it made so much sense. It's rare that a runner out of the backfield is the primary read on a play call, more often they are a check down option and third or later in the progression. The running quarterback is less likely to hit that third or fourth progression before their instincts take over and they break the pocket to run. Therefore, running backs playing alongside a mobile passer are less likely to see as many targets as their counterparts teamed with traditional pocket players.  

Malone's findings backed up that intuitive "football-based" conclusion. From 2000 to 2015, among quarterbacks (10 total) with both 250 pass attempts and a run-pass ratio of at least 1:5, only pre-conversion Terrelle Pryor of the Oakland Raiders threw to his running backs at a rate above the 20.9% target share league average.  

 

When the objective statistics verify conclusions us as intuitive observers of the game of football could discern; that's when you really have something.

It is the same line of thinking displayed in Malone's conclusions that have some individuals, even a handful of incredibly bright minds, less than thrilled with universally-adored prospect Christian McCaffrey landing with the Carolina Panthers and their rushing-inclined franchise quarterback. Despite the fact that the Panthers ranked 8th in run play percentage last year and even 2nd overall in Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season, the thought is that Newton and company won't create the ecosystem to unlock McCaffrey's truly special skills as a pass-catcher.

Since that fear is indeed rooted in my criteria of passing not only the intuitive football sniff test but is also backed up by a strong statistical study, I get it. However, I'd argue that there is reason to believe that Newton and his team will, in fact, create the environment where McCaffrey can access his ceiling as both a true feature runner and a receiver. Coming to that conclusion does require a touch of imagination, but it also comes back to that same word Ron Rivera offered up at the close of 2016 to describe where his team needed to head in the coming years.

Evolve. It's what Rivera indicated needed to come next for both his now-veteran quarterback and the Panthers offense as a whole. Therein lies the rub; the running quarterback as a staple of an NFL offense is still relatively new. We're in a bit of uncharted territory with Newton as a mobile franchise quarterback as he heads into the second act of his pro career. 

Unlike what the Panthers now want from Newton, we often don't see running quarterbacks get the chance to evolve. Most of the quarterbacks from Malone's study since 2000 flamed out. Among the 10 quarterbacks in the group, only Newton, Russel Wilson and Tyrod Taylor, whose grip on his job seems tenuous, are slated to open 2017 as starters. Terrelle Pryor switched positions and Kordell Stewart struggled to find a steady home. Robert Griffin and Colin Kaepernick both remain unsigned after failing to sustain the early career momentum both enjoyed after hot starts. The Golden Calf of Bristol and Vince Young are out of the league after being cast aside by the organizations that drafted them despite their strong career win percentage. Mike Vick is the only one of the group to truly see his career out from start to finish, despite a significant off-field bump in the road. 

Due to the revelation that we are headed into somewhat uncharted career water for Cam Newton's second act, I'm not only inclined to believe Rivera's intentions for the team to evolve but also I'm willing to open myself up to the possibility that what has always been for Newton's approach will not always be what's to come for the almost 28-year old quarterback. Even better, some small historical precedent does exist for Rivera's evolutionary blueprint. 

Rank	Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Y/G	Starting seasons (12+g)
1	Bobby Douglass	1972	25	CHI	14	14	141	968	6.87	8	69.1	2
2	Cam Newton	2015	26	CAR	16	16	132	636	4.82	10	39.8	6
3	Cam Newton	2012	23	CAR	16	16	127	741	5.83	8	46.3	6
4	Cam Newton	2011	22	CAR	16	16	126	706	5.6	14	44.1	6
5	Michael Vick	2006	26	ATL	16	16	123	1039	8.45	2	64.9	6
6	The Golden Calf of Bristol	2011	24	DEN	14	11	122	660	5.41	6	47.1	0
7	Robert Griffin	2012	22	WAS	15	15	120	815	6.79	7	54.3	2
8	Michael Vick	2004	24	ATL	15	15	120	902	7.52	3	60.1	6
9	Randall Cunningham	1990	27	PHI	16	16	118	942	7.98	5	58.9	7
10	Russell Wilson	2014	26	SEA	16	16	118	849	7.19	6	53.1	5
11	Michael Vick	2002	22	ATL	15	15	113	777	6.88	8	51.8	6
12	Cam Newton	2013	24	CAR	16	16	111	585	5.27	6	36.6	6
13	Daunte Culpepper	2002	25	MIN	16	16	106	609	5.75	10	38.1	4
14	Randall Cunningham	1989	26	PHI	16	16	104	621	5.97	4	38.8	7
15	Colin Kaepernick	2014	27	SFO	16	16	104	639	6.14	1	39.9	2
16	Tyrod Taylor	2015	26	BUF	14	14	104	568	5.46	4	40.6	2
17	Cam Newton	2014	25	CAR	14	14	103	539	5.23	5	38.5	6
18	Russell Wilson	2015	27	SEA	16	16	103	553	5.37	1	34.6	5
19	Michael Vick	2005	25	ATL	15	15	102	597	5.85	6	39.8	6
20	Steve McNair	1997	24	TEN	16	16	101	674	6.67	8	42.1	8
21	Michael Vick	2010	30	PHI	12	12	100	676	6.76	9	56.3	6

Since the league-merger, a quarterback has recorded 100 or more rush attempts in a season just 21 times. With only 10 total quarterbacks on the list, several players did it multiple times in their career. Of those signal callers, only five managed to achieve some level of career stability (defined as more than two seasons with 12-plus starts). That list includes two active players in Russel Wilson and Cam Newton. Mike Vick, Randall Cunningham and the late Steve McNair from years past round out the list.

Newton's early years have indeed played to the statics when it comes to running quarterbacks. Panthers backfield players haven't cracked 60 combined catches since his rookie year in 2011, when Jonathan Stewart snagged a career-high 47. Wilson's Seahawks never found much use for a pass-catching back, either. Of course, there is a chicken and egg discussion to have with both of these players since neither played with a weaponry receiving back, as DeAngelo Williams and Marshawn Lynch never recorded 50 catches at any point in their career. Yet, for this study, we'll just assume it's the cause of the running quarterback. 

Mike Vick showed some willingness to throw to his running backs at different points in his career. His backfield players eclipsed 70 catches with the Falcons in 2002 when Warrick Dunn was in his prime and pushed triple digits in 2010 during his magic season with LeSean McCoy and the Eagles. Otherwise, his backs fell under 60 combined catches. Randall Cunningham doesn't fit the mold quite as neatly, as his running backs were almost always featured in the passing game.

If you truly want a historical piece of evidence for a rushing-inclined quarterback evolving and backfield receptions trending up, your examples are Daunte Culpepper and Steve McNair. Granted, neither had the running prowess, usage or production of Newton, but their seasons with 12 or more starts still show a path for him to follow.

Year	Age	Tm	G	Rush	Rush/G	Cmp%	Rate	TD%	RB rec.
2000	23	MIN	16	89	5.6	62.7	98	7	52
2002	25	MIN	16	106	6.6	60.7	75.3	3.3	64
2003	26	MIN	14	73	5.2	65	96.4	5.5	94
2004	27	MIN	16	88	5.5	69.2	110.9	7.1	106

Culpepper eclipsed 100 rushing attempts in a single season just once in 2002. His backfield players that year managed just 64 total catches. However, as Culpepper aged, throwing to his running backs increased as his rush attempts took a dip. It all came to a head in his Pro Bowl 2004 campaign. At 27 years old, Culpepper's rush attempts per game fell more than a full carry from the 6.6 he held in 2002. His running backs were a major receiving factor in that hyper-efficient season, as four Vikings backs (Onterrio Smith, Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore and Moe Williams) all amassed more than 20 receptions. Culpepper's career began to sputter after that season due to injuries and he never again started 12 or more games. However, the early signs of evolution were there for the gifted Minnesota passer. 

We saw Steve McNair function for a longer stretch than Culpepper and a similar, albeit less dramatic, trajectory unfolded. 

Year	Age	Tm	G	Rush	Rush/G	Cmp%	Rate	TD%	RB rec.
1997	24	TEN	16	101	6.3	52	70.4	3.4	37
1998	25	TEN	16	77	4.8	58.7	80.1	3	43
2000	27	TEN	16	72	4.5	62.6	83.2	3.8	67
2001	28	TEN	15	75	5	61.3	90.2	4.9	55
2002	29	TEN	16	82	5.1	61.2	84	4.5	63
2003	30	TEN	14	38	2.7	62.5	100.4	6	49
2005	32	TEN	14	32	2.3	61.3	82.4	3.4	62
2006	33	BAL	16	45	2.8	63	82.5	3.4	74

Indeed, during the one season where McNair cracked the triple digits in rush attempts his backfield players combined for just 37 catches. However, as his career went on, that number increased. His final two seasons with 12-plus starts saw his rushing skills nearly completely evaporate and his running backs became even bigger staples of the passing distribution. McNair's lone stable season in Baltimore saw him take off running 45 times but his backfield players handle over 70 catches. Despite playing with a true grinder in Jamal Lewis, McNair made use of ancillary backs like Musa Smith as receivers. The former Oilers top-five pick might be the best example of some sort of career second-act evolution for running quarterbacks.  

While recent examples of rushing quarterbacks do indeed show that they are less likely to target their running backs, revisiting the cases of Daunte Culpepper and Steve McNair show that a change in approach for these players is inevitable to survive at the NFL level. It's apparent that Ron Rivera and the Panthers know that time is now for Cam Newton, especially after a rough 2016 season where even the former No. 1 overall pick looked weary from the beating. The cases of those quarterbacks also show that passing to players out of the backfield can be a natural part of that evolution.  

Carolina sent a clear message in drafting Christian McCaffrey 8th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Times are changing in Panther nation. A malaise offense that grew stale, slow and unsustainably volatile got an injection of speed and the makings of a matchup nightmare when Dave Gettleman opted for the Stanford product with his first pick. If you didn't believe it, he doubled down, as he's wont to do, at the 40th overall spot by taking another slasher with 4.3 speed in Curtis Samuel of Ohio State to play slot receiver.  

The Panthers offense of the last three years was largely based around some of the more high-degree of difficulty passes assigned to any starting quarterback in the NFL. Newton had to wait for slow-developing routes to come to fruition despite working with largely below average separators in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. It resulted in Cam Newton throwing more passes into tight windows than any other quarterback in the NFL last season, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking.  

Drafting McCaffrey wasn't just about securing the future at running back, it accomplished the goal of giving Newton a player who could flash open early in-route and provide him with easier completions. He signaled evolution and that what has been with Cam Newton will not always be. The Panthers clearly signaled intentions along with a handful of evolutionary indicators has me brightly optimistic about this pairing and Christian McCaffrey barreling through his destined to be special NFL career on way to unlocking his ceiling. 

 

[t96]

Got a little too statsy for me so I had to stop reading but I get the general idea. We need to start now and take the run game out of Cam's hands completely. No more read option bull, no designed runs outside of must convert situations and only scrambles from him when the situation presents itself. I hope with the addition of Samuel and McC that we can see this happen as soon as this year. Let Stew and McC carry the run game and also extend that run game with short passes to Samuel and McC, which is essentially running the ball. This will in turn open up the middle of the field and the deep ball which is what we've been trying to force for the past few years.

It's like in boxing, if you go for the knockout hooks or uppercuts all fight, you'll never connect. If you commit to the jab you'll open up opportunities for hooks and uppercuts. Same thing here, under Shula we've been going for knockout punches without setting them up with jabs. The addition of McC and Samuel and Armah, and this upcoming evolution will fix that and I'm very excited about it.

[thefuzz]

1 minute ago, thomas96 said:

Got a little too statsy for me so I had to stop reading but I get the general idea. We need to start now and take the run game out of Cam's hands completely. No more read option bull, no designed runs outside of must convert situations and only scrambles from him when the situation presents itself. I hope with the addition of Samuel and McC that we can see this happen as soon as this year. Let Stew and McC carry the run game and also extend that run game with short passes to Samuel and McC, which is essentially running the ball. This will in turn open up the middle of the field and the deep ball which is what we've been trying to force for the past few years.

It's like in boxing, if you go for the knockout hooks or uppercuts all fight, you'll never connect. If you commit to the jab you'll open up opportunities for hooks and uppercuts. Same thing here, under Shula we've been going for knockout punches without setting them up with jabs. The addition of McC and Samuel and Armah, and this upcoming evolution will fix that and I'm very excited about it.

Those "knockout punches" you are talking about aren't all Shula.....Cam loves the huge splash play, and so do his teammates.  Cam will learn to take what the defense gives you, but, like Favre, it's not his style.

[t96]

1 minute ago, thefuzz said:

Those "knockout punches" you are talking about aren't all Shula.....Cam loves the huge splash play, and so do his teammates.  Cam will learn to take what the defense gives you, but, like Favre, it's not his style.

I understand that that's a part of it. But the way we've run the offense has been to hit intermediate and deep passes. Rarely do we see short routes as a part of the play designs. Of course Cam's strength is his deep and intermediate passing but he's more complete than that and in order to take advantage of his strength and what he wants to do there, we need to open up the underneath game. Part of that includes Cam improving his short passing accuracy, but more importantly we actually need short routes to be incorporated into the game plan. With McC and Samuel, I'm sure this is a part of the evolution we keep hearing about.

[tiger7_88]

5 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

We need to start now and take the run game out of Cam's hands completely. No more read option bull

I would keep it in the package. 

Even encourage Cam to keep it once or twice per game.  Just to keep the threat valid.

I would also tell Cam that, after keeping it, if nothing is there, get down immediately.  And if something IS there and he gets downfield, at the first approach of a defender, get down immediately.

I agree with you totally that relying on Cam as the prime mover of the run game has to end.  I just think with his skill set, its worth a couple of chances a game to maintain the threat and keep the defense on their toes.

[ThPantherFan]

Too much.  Condense please.

[PantherGuy]

Hate to be that guy, but this might be too close to plagiarism for Jeremy's liking. Generally you don't post the full article.

[ncmonzta]

Got a little too statsy for me so I had to stop reading but I get the general idea. We need to start now and take the run game out of Cam's hands completely. No more read option bull, no designed runs outside of must convert situations and only scrambles from him when the situation presents itself.

This^^. They should've been grooming Cam this way from the start, but hopefully they actually do it this season instead of talking about it

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[carpanfan96]

I don't see why he can't get 600-800 rushing yards 400-500 receiving yards on 240-250 touches with 6-10 touchdowns. Add in his PR ability and I could see him hitting 2400 total all purpose yards easily this season.

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[Jmac]

If he stops throwing the ball five feet over his receivers heads, then we got something. I'm hoping it will improve with a healthy and a better offensive line. Give him time to set up and be more accurate.

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[t96]

Just now, tiger7_88 said:

I would keep it in the package. 

Even encourage Cam to keep it once or twice per game.  Just to keep the threat valid.

I would also tell Cam that, after keeping it, if nothing is there, get down immediately.  And if something IS there and he gets downfield, at the first approach of a defender, get down immediately.

I agree with you totally that relying on Cam as the prime mover of the run game has to end.  I just think with his skill set, its worth a couple of chances a game to maintain the threat and keep the defense on their toes.

I mean once or twice a game wouldn't be terrible but I'd still prefer just eliminating the read option completely. It's schoolyard bullsh*t that's been figured out, and allows Cam to get hit even when he doesn't keep the ball.

His running skillset should be utilized, but in the form of getting him in space with more roll outs not in the form of him running inside or off tackle like we've seen 10 times a game from him the past several years. We shouldn't be using our QB as a battering ram running back. It's ridiculous.

Cam's dominant 2015 is completely absurd when I look back at it. It shouldn't even be possible. Cam was the entire offense that year. Never before have I seen anything like it in the history of this sport. If we can build an offense that can sustain itself without Cam being Superman, then when Cam is Superman, he'll have even more ridiculously good seasons and our offense will be even better than it was then. With McC and Samuel added and this evolution, I think we're on our way to that, but it won't work if Cam is still being asked to be a big part of the run game. It really should just be getting him into space when passing so that if a pass isn't there he has space to scramble or time to throw it away without getting plastered.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

6 minutes ago, tiger7_88 said:

I would keep it in the package. 

Even encourage Cam to keep it once or twice per game.  Just to keep the threat valid.

I would also tell Cam that, after keeping it, if nothing is there, get down immediately.  And if something IS there and he gets downfield, at the first approach of a defender, get down immediately.

I agree with you totally that relying on Cam as the prime mover of the run game has to end.  I just think with his skill set, its worth a couple of chances a game to maintain the threat and keep the defense on their toes.

I've kind of gone back and forth on the zone read, but now I'm starting to think about how much more dangerous that play can be if they don't run it as often and they have CMC and Samuel to run it with cam. We could actually incorporate a little bit of triple option and it could actually work for this team. I still don't like that fact that Cam can get hit on any given option play though, hence the part about not running it as often.

[thefuzz]

6 minutes ago, thomas96 said:

I understand that that's a part of it. But the way we've run the offense has been to hit intermediate and deep passes. Rarely do we see short routes as a part of the play designs. Of course Cam's strength is his deep and intermediate passing but he's more complete than that and in order to take advantage of his strength and what he wants to do there, we need to open up the underneath game. Part of that includes Cam improving his short passing accuracy, but more importantly we actually need short routes to be incorporated into the game plan. With McC and Samuel, I'm sure this is a part of the evolution we keep hearing about.

We were running an Air Coryell offense, and that requires a power run game, and large chunk plays....something that fits Cam's style perfectly

The rub...we don't have the O line to be able to run that scheme effectively, and Cam is a runner, so he's going to get banged up more than most Coryell QB's...just part of it.

I'm guessing that we will see a bit more of a E-P style offense moving forward, and much much less of Cam being part of the "power run game" as he has been.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

As for the point of this article, I believe Cam has always seen himself as a pocket passer first anyway, so this could actually be a natural evolution for him.