Panthers Draft Analysis: Slot WR Curtis Samuel - Reliability, Speed, And A Match-up Nightmare; A Key Piece In The Panthers Evolution

[Saca312]

I'll be the first to say the 2017 NFL Draft is the best thing that has ever happened for this offense. In terms of how amazing it was, it could rival 2013 in terms of immediate fixes and impact. In this draft, we have successfully retooled and equipped this offense in a manner that will put the ball in the hands of our coaching staff, as there's really nothing much you could do - aside another TE - to make this offense into a bigger juggernaut than it is now.

Part of what's contributing to this evolution is the addition of a very speedy slot receiver in Curtis Samuel. His ability to blow the top off of defenses in space will eradicate the necessity of any Ginn type production, and the offensive looks of having him and McCaffrey at the same time will give defensive coordinators migraines. It's a mixed offense of power and speed, and this 2017 offense could honestly bring about a whole new style of offense never seen before in Carolina history.

The only issue is that we have Shula as OC. Now, there's a common argument that said that our lack of weapons and injured o-line in 2016 hampered Shula, and that 2015 was a fun offense that Shula helped contribute to. I don't buy that, but right now I'm hoping that may truly be the reason for Shula's ineptitude. With Gettleman getting the players he did, he's basically telling Shula that it's no longer on personnel and completely on the coaching if the offense falls flat again. 

Even so, there's still no doubt 2017 will be fun to watch on both sides of the ball.

Curtis Samuel will be a huge part of this evolution. The traits he shows as a WR makes him more than worth his draft stock, and his impact will be immediate. The amount of looks and mismatches we could create just adds to the flavor with Samuel and McCaffrey on the field, and I'm just stoked to see what will happen next year.

Here's a look at how this Ohio State weapon comes in to replace an old Ohio State weapon in Ginn and more:

Background

Curtis Samuel was the face of the OSU offense. Every OSU game thread that exists, you'll see something along the lines as "why wasn't Samuel used here" or "Samuel isn't playing enough" or "fug [insert OSU coaching staff member here]." You effectively had Samuel as 75% of the offense, and the other 25% were supporting cast. A guy whose speed and ability in space will make him quite the match-up nightmare for any team.

A one-year starter at Ohio State, Samuel moved to a hybrid H-back role as a sophomore and became the centerpiece of the Ohio State offense as a junior, separating himself as the most dangerous offensive weapon on the roster. He grew up modeling his game after Percy Harvin and filled a similar role in Meyer's offense, lining up in the backfield as a receiver - only player in Ohio State history to finish with 1,000+ yards rushing and 1,000+ yards receiving.

A natural ball-handler, Samuel is a balanced athlete with the explosive traits and natural acceleration to produce chunk plays in various roles. Samuel is ideally suited for a hybrid offensive position that highlights his instinctive run qualities as a rusher, but also his many route-running capabilities as a slot receiver.

At the Combine, Curtis Samuel ran a 4.31 40 yard dash and had a 37” vertical. For comparison, Ginn ran a 4.28 in his combine, and averaged in the 4.3 range when tested in his pro/workout days. His speed, acceleration, and burst are all proven to be true assets to his game through his performance. Overshadowed by John Ross' prior 4.22 dash, Samuel came out with a very impressive run even amid the closed curtains. An impressive athlete, whose game backs up those traits.

Breakdown

I'm pretty much evaluating him as a pure slot receiver. He can play inside and has showcased fantastic ability in running to the outside and in between tackles, but his main dish comes straight from his work in the slot. From watching him, he could legitimately be in contention as one of the best slot receivers from this draft class, and that's a serious deal. What was a common theme was how much he could've grown and literally broke out with 2000 yard seasons, but so much potential was washed away because of bad QB play.

Curtis Samuel is a pretty special player. He can act as a solid runner and a speedy, polished slot receiver. Samuel may not have the best catching technique as a wide receiver, but that doesn't matter. Samuel catches the ball his way, and he does not let go of it. When Samuel secures the ball, it's secured for good. He has the ability to take on collisions immediately after the catch and hold on to it for dear life.

Samuel showcases the ability to take hard collisions right when he catches the ball and comes down as if it never fazed him at all. Right when a DB guns on him, he will have the ball secured and come down with it to the ground. You see WRs in the NFL who can't secure the ball as well as Samuel in situations like these, yet Samuel showcases ability that even some pros can't emulate.

This is a common theme in Samuel's repertoire. He will make a lot of solid catches in contact, and that's something you just can't teach for most WRs.

A common argument that people make is that Samuel "isn't a polished route runner." Sure, it's plausible to assume that, considering he only recently attained his role as a WR. It's fair to say he could be raw. However, further analysis reveals there may not be so much validity within this.

Curtis Samuel showcases some real nice traits as a route runner that I believe is very underrated. Part of that is most likely due to inept quarterback play, as a lot of targets he had were inaccurate or completely off the mark. This failure proved to be a hindrance in what Curtis Samuel could've become.

Nevertheless, understand Samuel is more of a route runner than people give him credit for. Samuel has many examples of showing polished footwork and jabs to create an advantage for himself. Samuel has an array of moves he utilizes to get himself separation and wide open. In the following example, Curtis Samuel shows off a nice slant:

The result was the Michigan corner being left in the dust as Samuel got free in the horizontal game. The pass was sadly wide left of Samuel, but this should not discredit any of Samuel's efforts.  The defender is left in the rear view mirror with Samuel likely getting an easy first down and then some had the completion been made.

Curtis Samuel can beat people with his moves and route running ability. In the following example, he goes against Jourdan Lewis - a very solid prospect - and leaves him in the dust. Samuel begins with a hesitation that stops the CB right in his tracks, then he does a good job of using his hands here to keep himself clean.

The QB overthrows yet again in another fine example of Samuel's good route work, but don't let that distract you. It happens all the time for the Buckeye, and I don't believe that'll happen with Cam much at all in any deep passing situation.

To top off these amazing traits, you see Curtis' burst to pull away. The subtle part about this is how there’s a nice inside release from Samuel, but he makes sure he “stacks” the DB and gets back on track. He knows what he’s doing as a receiver. Even further down the field, you can see him avoid contact.

This should’ve been a 40 yard TD, but yet again OSU's QB is about as JAG as it gets. He gets separation and slides past defenders like they were mere statues, and gets himself open. With a competent QB, that's a sure touchdown.

When you see Curtis Samuel against press coverage, he usually dominates. He will fight for the ball and win the match-ups. He will get physical when need to, and force defenders to respect his presence.

Curtis shows an efficient release. Later, you see his "stacking" ability, then pulling away for a touchdown. He beats the press coverage and comes away with gold. Samuel may not have commonly faced this type of coverage, but every time he has, he's dominated.

Now Curtis Samuel in the horizontal slot game is deadly - with emphasis on the deadly. Samuel is a match-up nightmare with his speed and ability to win, and he will leave you in the dust if you are not careful. If Samuel gets his way in the slot, it's all over for any defender.

You see, this is exactly the type of person Cam Newton needs. A slot receiver who can stretch the middle of the field, get separation, and burn corners to the endzone. That right there is absolutely critical for Cam Newton's success, and Samuel provides that option. His ability to stretch the field and work his way in the middle will give any defender a run for his money.

Again, put him in the slot, and he delivers. He will fly by defenders like they're nothing and get himself some easy touchdowns. He thrives in space, and exploits zone coverages on a common basis. Had his QB even been average, he could've been talked about in the mid first round to early first round as a prospect.

Now, there's a common misconception that Samuel drops a lot of passes. The answer to that simple question is that he doesn't whatsoever. In fact, he's arguably the most efficient 3rd down possession receiver and catcher on the Buckeye's offense. According to CFB film room, Samuel only had a drop rate of 3.2%. That's a very low and efficient amount and certainly an improvement over Ginn's catch rate.

However, Samuel does need to learn to catch out of his frame. He can occasionally mistime his jump and fail to recover the ball. This is an issue that you see in spurts in Samuel's game, and a primary reason why some dub him as a guy who drops passes. The Clemson game first comes to mind as a textbook example of where Samuel can improve his game:

These are the only instances he drops, but it is a teachable issue to fix. Most of the time, it isn't much of a problem, but even so this flaw exists. He will need some refining in that area, but there's still no doubt he'll be as productive as ever.

Conclusion

A very quick, versatile, and reliable slot receiver that Cam desperately needs. The ability to beat press, man, and zone coverages is evident in his game, and his talent as a route runner should not go unnoticed. He makes magic in space and showcases the ability to beat corners well with a variety of moves and jabs. Samuel utilizes his hands and arm a lot to gain separation and an advantage over the defender in most situations.

His added value as a runner and returner makes this Ohio prospect even more intriguing. While I had not specifically addressed this area much due to the basic fact he's going to primarily be in the slot on the Panthers, he has the ability to really make defenders miss and enough flashes shown that he could honestly be a competent RB if he just chose that route only:

A weapon that will truly transform the Panthers offense. I cannot tell you how good this pick is after watching some more of him. Samuel will pave the way to match-up nightmares and looks with game-breaking speed. A perfect fit and role for the Panthers.

 

[weyco2000]

After drafting Samuel, the offensive scheme went to a new level...


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[Marguide]

Good work Saca. Appreciated.

[davos]

It's just downright awesome we got two brand new playmakers with the first two picks.  

I try to temper expectations but I'm rooting for Samuel to have a nice rookie season.  

 

[Saca312]

2 hours ago, davos said:

It's just downright awesome we got two brand new playmakers with the first two picks.  

 

Just imagine...

Team stacking the box against you? Great we just shifted McCaffrey out onto a LB covering him and you've got another LB covering Samuel.

Team playing dime? Great motion McCaffrey in the back field and have the defense adjust only to hit them with a play action of Samuel going deep (second fastest player in the draft) or just run it and watch McCaffrey juke the daylights out of some CB that has no business being on the field.

Want to confuse defenses even more? Run a jet sweep with McCaffrey and Samuel, and try and see if the defenses can guess correctly.

Oh wait, the team would also need to account for Cam's running ability, Stewart's power option, Greg Olsen's presence, and Kelvin Benjamin's sheer size and presence. Do that and they stop our offense.

It's gonna be a fun time.

[cardiackat88.]

Excellent work as always.

I am always a fan of your work.

 

[imminent rogaine]

 I tried to imagine it, got excited, Then I remembered Shula.

[ncfan]

Excelent work as always Saca


Im really starting to warm up to this kid. Think he is going going to be an upgrade to Ginn. Both have about the same hands, but he has a better opportunity to imrove them. Ginn is old and hasnt shown he couod his whole career. Samuel has never played WR full time. Work on his technique and have him out the catch balls full time and it should onky get better.
Samuel imo looks to have better vision and quickness as well.

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[bababoey]

I am not going to requote all of that but saying Ginn ran 4.28 at the combine is incorrect.  He never ran at the combine.  And I think he did not run prior to getting drafted, I could be wrong about that.  He still had a broken foot from the championship game.

[Saca312]

41 minutes ago, ncfan said:

Both have about the same hands, 

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app
 

Actually, I beg to differ. Samuel was OSU's most reliable receiver, and the only knock on him was when forced to make catches outside his frame. That's an area he can improve on.

He's actually one of the best 3rd down receivers from this class if I'm being honest.

Nevertheless, he's definitey an upgrade, and he'll be learning and getting better.

[Moorgan]

After reading this, I could see Samuel in competition for Rookie of the Year against Christian McCaffrey. But my optimism is at a ridiculously high level. I thought this draft was fantastic and indicates an evolution that coaches have hinted at. I for one, remember the praise that Shula's offense received in 2015 for complexity and effectiveness. I'm optimistic that we will see the next level of success.

[Snake]

Samuel has a really good jab step that will fool even NFL CBS. 

[JawnyBlaze]

I watched every video of his on draftbreakdowns and his routes were very good, hands were good, there wasn't really any deficiencies to his game. His QB was atrocious. Calling him a jag is an insult to jags everywhere.  I really think he's gonna be a slot WR like we've never had before. 

[Hogmolliesmaht]

I like the fact that Samuel spent so much time at RB because he has that build that will help him bounce off the first hit and get more YAC than Ginn could. I think he actually tracks the ball better than Ginn too. Neither one of them is great at catching those bullets outside their body, but there is hope that Samuel will get better at it since he's still learning to play WR. Ted Ginn was a finished product before he came here.