The Ultimate Gettleman/Panthers draft analysis (must read)

[TheSpecialJuan]

We extensively work out prospects we’re interested in: The common theme between Shaq Thompson, Vernon Butler, Star and Benji is that we worked them out at least twice prior to their selection, and all of them had private visits with us. It’s also true for prospects like James Bradberry, Daryl Worley and Zach Sanchez, all of whom we had extensive visitation with prior to their selection. I think this speaks to our GM’s meticulous, cautious nature.

We’re not shy about who we like: When it comes to dealing with the media, Gettleman is much like Belichick in a number of ways; he openly antagonizes them when they say something stupid, and he loves talking football with them. He seems to enjoy discussing his process, and as a result, the players he’s got his eye on. Much of the media world seemed stunned when we took both Butler and Thompson, but I had called the picks about two weeks out. The main reason I could see those picks coming? He wouldn’t shut up about them. He similarly bandied about Kony Ealy leading up to the 2014 draft, so much so that I really thought our first round pick was a two way race between him and Benji. If Gettleman’s really into a player, there are pretty decent odds he’s run his mouth off about him at some point. There are a lot of GMs who blow a lot of smoke, but generally speaking, if Gettleman talks about a guy, it’s because he genuinely likes him.

We pick needs: Gettleman has developed a reputation for ruthlessly adhering to a BPA approach, but I think the reality is more nuanced than that. In 2014, he double dipped at DT when it was beyond a shadow of a doubt the weakest position on the roster. In 2014, WR was the runt of the litter, and it would be very difficult to argue that Kelvin Benjamin was the best player on the board. And while we did draft a DT in round 1 of 2016, it’s worth noting that we spent the three picks that followed replacing our CB core that lacked a single starter from the previous season. So I think the notion that Gettleman exclusively drafts BPA is highly overstated. Now, having said that…

We don’t reach: The biggest need on our roster for years now has been offensive tackle. Yet we haven’t selected one higher than round 3 since Gettleman got here because there simply hasn’t been one worth selecting at our draft spot. Likewise, while the biggest need going into the 2016 draft was defensive back, we opted to fill the hole in rounds 2, 3 and 4 rather than 1 because the value wasn’t there. I contend that Gettleman balances need with BPA as opposed to how he’s often portrayed, but I’d never accuse him of reaching to fill a need.

We like big men: There are a lot of narratives about Gettleman that I think are unfair. He’s often accused of not addressing the OL when he’s responsible for four of our starters being here. He only drafts DTs even though he’s taken more corners and as many LBs during his tenure. And I’ve already addressed the conception of him as a BPA purist. But one reputation he has justly earned is his obsession with the hog molly. We like our receivers 6’4 plus. Our corners 6’2 plus. Our linemen huge and long armed. In front of the media, he talks about measurables the way Rex Ryan probably talks about feet. He’s been vocal about his theory that big men win football games, and it’s a constant in both his FA pickups and his drafting. If there’s one serious criticism I lay at our GM’s feet, it’s that he often seems more interested in height and weight than talent or finesse, and it shows in some of his more questionable draft picks (Lookin’ at you, Funchess)

We’re willing to trade up, but we don’t trade down: Contrary to the smart policy many statisticians have argued for about the NFL draft, the Panthers under Gettleman seem very willing to move up for players they like, but almost never down to acquire more picks. The reasoning for this is twofold. First, our GM likes the roster and doesn’t feel a need to add more than 4 or 5 rookies from each class. Second, he gets bil ol’ crushes on the guys he likes and often feels a need to move up for them.

Character matters to us: I don’t think we only draft angels. But Gettleman has been vocal about his distaste for players with character concerns and the way that impacts their availability. With the exception of Daryl Worley, almost all of our draft picks have been squeaky clean. So you can basically scratch the Joe Mixons and Dalvin Cooks off the board for us.

We don’t value late round picks: Whether it’s trading a 4th for a punter, trading away much of our late round to move up in the second for Devin Funchess, or trading Ealy to move from the 3rd into the 2nd, I think Gettleman has shown a real disregard for any pick outside the 3rd round. In my opinion, he views these picks as expendable; more trade munition than player capital. By the end of the third, we’ve generally snagged everyone we’re going to, and when you look up and down our vetting list, there is a palpable lack of visits and research we do on players projected into the later rounds.

What does it mean?

The first pick is a RB: This one isn’t very bold, but I base it on two things; we love Fournette and McCaffery and we don’t seem to love much of anyone else. We’ve talked about and courted the two top prospect in this draft extensively and both the coaching staff and the scouts have been vocal about finding the future of the position in this class. But for a team that’s talked constantly about upgrading our run game, we haven’t done much research on the actual runners. Guys like Foreman, Cook, Hill and Mixon, who I think are all good fits in our offense, haven’t gotten so much as a pro day look from us. Only Alvin Kamara has gotten a serious look outside the top two. On top of that, other than Solomon Thomas and Jamal Adams (more on that one later), we haven’t really done extensive work with any of the picks that are projected around that #8 spot. To me, all these signs point to Fournette as the plan and McCaffery as the backup.

[TheSpecialJuan]

shout out to BlindWillieJohnson

 

 

[therealmjl]

Make it stop

[TheSpecialJuan]

Corner isn’t a priority: Gettleman made it very clear last year that he was drafting the secondary of the future, and he seems to mean it because we have shown practically zero interest in the cornerback position. Despite a lot of (uninformed) people arguing that corner is the weakest spot on our roster, and Carolina Huddle’s weird insistence that Gareon Conley is at the top of our board (we didn’t so much as attend his pro day), the only CB we’ve used a private visit on or worked out more than once is Teez Tabor. With the way his stock is tumbling, don’t be surprised if Teez ends up with us, but I’m not seeing a high pick on corner this year.

We’re interested in WR, but not with a high pick: All totaled we’ve shopped about 16 WRs. Most of those are pro day glances, and only two of them we’ve held private visits with are top prospects (Curtis Samuel and Zay Jones). It’s a need I expect us to address, but not until day 3.

We want a safety but we’re not interested in a late rounder: Of all the positions in this draft, Safety is the most intriguing. There are three trends to note here with the players we’re interested in: we’ve worked them out very extensively, they’re all top rated prospects and they’re all strong safeties. There are no two players we’ve shown more interest in than Jamal Adams and Obi Melifonwu, who we’ve met with 3 and 4 times respectively. And we’ve also done considerable work with Josh Jones. Outside of that? We’ve done practically nothing to scout the position. We want one of those three guys, and we want them bad. If Melfonwu is there at 40, I’m convinced he’s the pick. Otherwise, expect Josh Jones at some point.

Edge rush is going to get at least one and possibly two picks: Apart from WR, no position has been vetted as thoroughly as DE. We’ve worked out 15 prospects at the position, and 6 of our 30 private visits fall squarely in the DE category. And unlike safety, we’re not just working out the top prospects. We’ve done extensive scouting of players projected as early as the first and as late as 4th round, with a concentration on guys projected for round 2. I would keep a particularly close eye on Jordan Willis, Tanoh Kpassagnon and Demarcus Walker as players we could see donning the Carolina hats by the end of day 2. I would not be at all surprised to see DE as our back to back picks either in round 2, or our late 2nd rounder and comp pick. If for some reason neither McCaffery or Fournette are available at 8, I think Solomon Thomas or Barnett becomes our first rounder.

Tight End is more luxury than priority: Upgrading the offense is important to the FO in this draft, and TE is one of the top places they aim to do it. But ultimately, I don’t think this is as high a priority as many draft experts seem to believe. Howard has gotten some cursory work, but wasn’t one of our 30 visits and only had a single private workout with us. I don’t see him being in the cards for us. We did a lot of tire kicking on David Njoku, and I’m sure he’s in the mix for us at 40 if he’s available, but he almost certainly won’t be. Evan Ingram is definitely on our radar, but I think defensive players and OL (more on that in a minute) are higher priorities.

Offensive Tackle is very much a target: We have worked out a ton of offensive tackles, and I believe the thinking of our FO is that A) the position needs an upgrade and B) day 2 is the time to do it. We’ve worked out a handful of borderline 1st/2nd round guys. Cam Robinson is very much in the mix for us at 40, and I would consider Dion Dawkins as a favorite for pick 64, depending on who we choose with 40. Other names to watch are David Sharpe from Florida and my personal favorite UDFA signing, Mason Zandi.

[TheSpecialJuan]

 

 

• Round 1, Pick 8: Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)/Christian McCaffery (RB, Stanford) - As I said earlier, I'd be absolutely shocked if we don't pick one of the two here. If Fournette's off the board, we take McCaffery. I don't see a trade up happening with the amount of love we've showered on CMC.

• Round 2, Pick 40: Cam Robinson (OT, Alabama), David Njoku (TE, Miami), Obi Melifonwu (SS, UCONN), Jordan Willis (DE, Kansas), Garett Bolles (OT, Utah) Josh Jones (SS, NC State) Tarrell Bashman (DE, Ohio) - Don't be a bit surprised if we're taking our second selection in the back half of the first round. A tradeup for any of the first three prospects I list here would not be shocking in the least. That said, I think we hold pat. There are enough prospects that we're high on here that one of them should fall to us. That would free us up to pursue one of our other targets in the back half of the round.

[therealmjl]

[chknwing]

jeebus christ man. go out side. get some sun.

[caatfan]

It'll be interesting to see if your head shrinking of ole Dave pans out. Right or wrong, I'll give you an A for effort. 

[Thama]

If we could get Teez Tabor in the 3rd I would love that. He's got a lot of Josh Norman in him - big, great instincts and ball skills, not much straight line speed, probably a bit of a headache, plays a lot faster than he clocks.

[chknwing]

You have created 32  threads this month.  

This is the Carolina Huddle.  Not the TheSpecialJuan Huddle.

[Thama]

1 minute ago, caatfan said:

It'll be interesting to see if your head shrinking of ole Dave pans out. Right or wrong, I'll give you an A for effort. 

This is a copypasta (properly attributed in post #2) of a post in /r/panthers.

[Lasus83.]

You have created 32  threads this month.  

This is the Carolina Huddle.  Not the TheSpecialJuan Huddle.

Eff that...

I love his posts cus I can look at boobies each tine...

Side note - who is that chic? I want mooooore

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[chknwing]

1 minute ago, Lasus83. said:

Eff that...

I love his posts cus I can look at boobies each tine...

Side note - who is that chic? I want mooooore

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app
 

her name is Bill and shes transgender

[caatfan]

4 minutes ago, Thama said:

This is a copypasta (properly attributed in post #2) of a post in /r/panthers.

So I see, and he's been around long enough to know about quote marks and links too. I take back my 'like' and give it to BlindWillie instead.