Repeat after me: Don't sleep on Chris Godwin! Consider Reception Perception

[top dawg]

Everyone should know of Chris Godwin by now. We've seen a thread or two and numerous posts, but I still believe that some are still severely underestimating this receiver. I've said it several times, and I'm putting it in lights: He could very well turn out to be the best receiver of the 2017 draft. At worst, he's nobody's slouch.  In yesterday's presser, Dae Gettleman said basically that the Panthers believe in analytics (maybe even above the eye test), so here is some analysis from Matt Harmon's "Reception Perception methodology" as termed from NFL.com. The beauty of Reception Perception is that it is specific to wide receivers, and although still relatively new (created three years ago), it identified Allen Robinson as a potential stud.  Godwin is next in line. And ironically his game looks eerily similar to A-Rob's if you ask me. 

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...Reception Perception identifies Chris Godwin as a player who will likely go outside of the first round but is destined to outperform his draft status. 

Like I and a few other have said it's not Godwin's fault that he didn't have more production, he was just a victim of being in an offensive system that didn't force feed any receiver the ball. But even still, he was productive,

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When Godwin did see targets come his way he was mostly efficient in converting them. He caught almost 70 percent of the passes sent to him and dropped just 2.3 percent of them.

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Godwin’s insane 85.7 percent contested catch conversion rate is the highest among prospects charted the last two years. He narrowly edged out well-known high-pointer Josh Doctson from 2016, who owned an 85 percent conversion rate.

Not only does Godwin play at an elite level in traffic, he also shows an advanced understanding of timing and hand use when leaving his feet. He’s not as tall as a player like Williams or Doctson, but his ability in the air gives him just as much of a catch radius. His overall play strength makes him a force in close quarters with a defender.

 

 

He is not the tallest guy, but he obviously plays big, and honestly that's probably what Cam and this offense needs. One thing that the Panthers definitely need is a receiver that understands the nuances of separation, and Godwin has the traits.

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While Chris Godwin can come down with catches despite a defender being in his hip pocket in contested situations, he’s also a strong route runner who can leave them behind. Godwin posted a 73.5 percent success rate vs. coverage in the games sampled for Reception Perception. That was the fourth-highest score in the 2017 NFL Draft class and falls at the 76th percentile among prospects the last two years.

Godwin also showed well when facing zone defenses. His 85.5 success rate vs. zone coverage checked in as the fourth-highest among prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft. His 68.8 percent success rate vs. double coverage was above the 80th percentile.

 

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While the typical prospect will see their route percentage chart skew more towards the slant, curl, post and nine route, those were the four patterns that Godwin ran at a below average rate. It’s unusual, but Godwin ran the corner (4.6 percent) and out (4.6 percent) routes at rates right in line with the two-year prospect average.

Godwin’s preferred routes were the dig (12.7 percent), comeback (13.3 percent) and flat (9.8 percent) as his usage rate was above the prospect average on those three routes. The dig and comeback are two patterns that take the most detail and technical prowess to run with precision Godwin is much farther along as a route-runner than most of his peers in this class.

While his route percentage chart skewed more toward outside routes than the typical prospect, his route success rate scores show a player who wins in all areas of the field.

 

That's exactly what we need, people! 

Still not convinced? Read the whole article!

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-chris-godwin-underrated-wide-receiver-2017-nfl-draft/?udk=mharmon25

The fact is that Godwin can win those contested catches, and understands the nuances of route running and creating separation. He put it all on display against top level college programs. At the NFL Combine he showed his speed and athleticism. And he's durable. He just may be the most complete receiver in this class, but the good part is that he is a year younger than all of the big name receivers in this draft, and he will only get better with time and teaching.

He has the catch radius of Mike Williams, and creates separation in the class of Corey Davis, averages more yards per catch by quite a bit than Zay Jones, and his level of competition can't be disputed.  Though not as explosive as John Ross, he shows he is a more complete route runner, has good speed, is still dangerous in space and the red zone, and doesn't bring an injury history. 

I really think Godwin's floor is  WR2 given a situation where he actually plays an appreciable amount of snaps in the offense. I think his upside is that of a WR1.  I don't know if I can say that about any other receiver we've brought in this pre-draft period.  

 

Reception Perception, so far seems kind of prophetic:

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With the NFL Scouting Combine upon us, expect the buzz on Godwin to grow as he enters the national spotlight. While players like Cooper Kupp and Zay Jones appear to still be riding the hype of strong Senior Bowl weeks, it will soon be Godwin’s turn to displace them as one of the true sleepers of this draft class.

 

They hit that nail squarely on the head! And sounds like this one may be coming true also.

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...However, as long as Godwin continues to nail the pre-draft process, he could certainly end up working himself into the early Day 2 conversation. The results that lie in his Reception Perception metrics tell us that he is a player well worth that sort of investment.

Sounds like pick 40 to me.

 

 

 

 

 

And his contested catch rate is better than ANY receiver's in this class.

 

[The Lobo]

Agreed. I was all about Zay, but now I hope we land this kid in the second. 

[GoobyPls]

Good WR, not the type we need. We need a Ginn replacement, Goodwin isn't that.

[Jangler]

Sounds more like a Smitty replacement, if that's possible.

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

Good WR, not the type we need. We need a Ginn replacement, Goodwin isn't that.

LOL

[Saca312]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

Good WR, not the type we need. We need a Ginn replacement, Goodwin isn't that.

Lawl.

So apparently we couldn't use a Dez Bryant type player or a solid slot replacment. Okay

Anyways, yes, I completely agree top dawg, he could be special. I put reception perception and my own analysis as part of a thread I did a while ago if interested:

I'd love him. A lot.

[Saca312]

One thing that I again love about him is how good he is with out routes. 

The Panthers' bread and butter are out routes. That's Cam's favorite play. Godwin is exceptionally good at those, hence why Gettleman and staff brought him in for a visit.

This kid could be a special guy.

[top dawg]

2 hours ago, GoobyPls said:

Good WR, not the type we need. We need a Ginn replacement, Goodwin isn't that. 

Gettleman and company seem to disagree. Don't be a goob(er)! [Sorry, couldn't resist.] 

[uscgamecocks]

Matt Harmon is the man.  He's the best WR analyst out there.

If the Panthers never scouted another receiver and just picked Harmon's favorite guy each year we'd be in much better shape.

Allen Robinson and Tyler Lockett were two of his out of consensus calls that have hit big. Godwin and Carlos Henderson are two of his favorites this year.  We have been linked to both, which is encouraging.

Sidenote:  He's also a Panthers fan.

[Toomers]

Just now, uscgamecocks said:

Matt Harmon is the man.  He's the best WR analyst out there.

If the Panthers never scouted another receiver and just picked Harmon's favorite guy each year we'd be in much better shape.

Allen Robinson and Tyler Lockett were two of his out of consensus calls that have hit big. Godwin and Carlos Henderson are two of his favorites this year.  We have been linked to both, which is encouraging.

   You stole my mind!...lol. Been pounding the table for both.

  I was literally just about to post a scenario where we took both with our 2nd rounders. Just had to look up C. Johnson's contract. He still has to make the team and costs little to cut. Goodwin outside and Henderson in slot/PR would change offense dramatically. Move Funchess to a move TE and get him matched up with LB/SS that he can separate from. 

[uscgamecocks]

6 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   You stole my mind!...lol. Been pounding the table for both.

  I was literally just about to post a scenario where we took both with our 2nd rounders. Just had to look up C. Johnson's contract. He still has to make the team and costs little to cut. Goodwin outside and Henderson in slot/PR would change offense dramatically. Move Funchess to a move TE and get him matched up with LB/SS that he can separate from. 

It's a fun scenario to imagine, but it's not going to happen because Gettleman is going to trade up to draft a one dimensional running back in the top 5 picks.

Why would we want to improve our passing game?

[Saca312]

21 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

Matt Harmon is the man.  He's the best WR analyst out there.

If the Panthers never scouted another receiver and just picked Harmon's favorite guy each year we'd be in much better shape.

Allen Robinson and Tyler Lockett were two of his out of consensus calls that have hit big. Godwin and Carlos Henderson are two of his favorites this year.  We have been linked to both, which is encouraging.

Sidenote:  He's also a Panthers fan.

Might do a Carlos Henderson thread before I do my last mock draft one.

[Toomers]

5 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

It's a fun scenario to imagine, but it's not going to happen because Gettleman is going to trade up to draft a one dimensional running back in the top 5 picks.

Why would we want to improve our passing game?

 And you gave my mind back...lol.

   I want Fournette. But not really a fan of trading up for him. He will improve the passing game by forcing teams to put 8 in the box. But this has all been rehashed to death. I just wanted to show some love for those two WRs. Not get into another LF debate. Plenty of threads for that.

[gmonjimbo]

I like Chris Godwin. As the OP mentioned he knows how to highpoint the ball and has a high success rate in coming down with contested balls. This was a big issue with Ted Ginn and Philly Brown, they couldn't or were not willing to catch passes in traffic.