The Next Head Coach

[Mr. Scot]

This is an ongoing discussion, in several threads, so I thought I'd make a bit of an effort to consolidate it here.

Here's a look at the possible options for next year, if John Fox is fired.

(and keep in mind that even with the 0-3 start, this is not a given)

[Mr. Scot]

THE RETREADS

These are the guys everyone talks about because, to varying extents, they're proven. I'd remind people though that George Seifert was as well. I'd also ask anyone to name a coach who won Super Bowls with two different teams. Now I could let you search it yourself, but I'll save you the trouble.

There isn't one.

Five coaches have been to the game with two teams (Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, Dick Vermeil, Dan Reeves, Don Shula) but none of them won in both spots. Keep that in mind while you cheer for a retread.

Tony Dungy

Dungy has loads of respect for the man he is as much as the coach, and he has won a Super Bowl (some would say two). With that said, he seems rather happily retired. And critics of Meeks and his defensive system might want to consider that if Dungy were hired here, he'd likely keep both.

Brian Billick

Like Gruden, Billick found quick success as a head coach, winning the Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach. Also like Gruden, he never quite got back to that level again. Billick's regular season coaching record is overall better than Gruden's.

His playoff record is better too, but still not a winning one at 3-4, with two one and dones. Again, for comparison, John Fox has both more playoff appearances and wins. Throw in too that while touted as an offensive genius, Billick's Raven offenses were pedestrian. His team's strength was always on defense, units run by guys like Rex Ryan and Marvin Lewis (both of whom are busy right now).

Mike Shanahan

Nobody really expected him to be fired last season, and people feel certain he'll get a job next season. Two things are worth remembering though. One, no one made any effort to go after him this offseason. And two, he never duplicated the success he had with John Elway.

Shanahan had a winning percentage of 73% as a head coach. take away John Elway though, and his winning percentage drops to 57%, and a miserable 1-4 in the playoffs. Just for comparison's sake, current Panther coach John Fox has a career winning percentage of 55%, 5-3 in the postseason.

Mike Holmgren

Speaking of coaches whose best years came with star QBs, there's also Mike Holmgren. Yes, he had one year when he got to the Super Bowl with the Seahawks, but most of the time his playoff appearances fell short. Even when he did get to the big game - famously beating a wonded Panthers team in the 2005 NFCC - his team didn't look so hit (ditto the Steelers honestly, that game sucked). Worth remembering that even when you look at Holmgren's years with Favre, you'll find only one Super Bowl victory in there.

All in all, his record is probably the second best of all the retread coaches mentioned. He's also the second oldest at 63, truning 64 next November. Add to this that Holmgren looked very burnt out in his final season as a head coach and all but mailed it in. With all those things in mind, he might be a decent choice, but he'd be short term only.

Bill Cowher

This is the one loads of fans salivate over. Cowher presided over loads of winning seasons and made it to the postseason plenty. But again, his postseason record (outside of the one year they won it all) isn't as good as you might think (8-9, twice one and done).

Like John Fox, Cowher struck early in his career, going to the Super Bowl in his fourth season as a head coach, but losing. That season included, over the first 14 years of his career, Cowher was thought of as another Schottenheimer type that could get you to the postseason, but not through it.

He finally broke that ceiling in the 14th year of his head coaching career. Chew on those numbers for a moment. Fifteen years of coaching and a Super Bowl only in the next to last year. And that in the Steeler system, the same system that took Mike Tomlin to glory in only his second year. In the year following his victory, as in Holmgren's last year, he mailed it in.

Cowher bears a lot of similarities to George Seifert in that he took a long time to get back to the big game after early success (Seifert won his first try) despite being in one of the best run systems in the game. Can he win outside that system? Maybe, but Seifert couldn't. Bear in mind also that Seifert wants total control, a model last seen with the Panthers under Dom Capers. Jerry Richardson isn't a fan of that setup, and with good reason. It pretty much never works.

People love Cowher for his fire, charisma and winning record. And while I have no trouble believing that he'd bring the first two factors with him to Charlotte, I'm not convinced he'd bring the third.

CROSS THEM OFF

Marty Schottenheimer

Schottenheimer has been a proven, successful coach with several teams in the NFL. That is, if your primary measure of success is winning regular season games. Schottenheimer's teams always fade in the playoffs. Throw in that by the time we get to next season, Schottenheimer will be 67 years old, and besides being the oldest coach to be mentioned here, he's also the only one without a Super Bowl victory to his credit (not even an appearance).

Edit: Schottenheimer said in an interview with Mark Packer that there was "zero chance" he'd be an NFL coach or GM next year. He's quite happily retired.

Jon Gruden

Gruden struck at the right time in Tampa, winning on the back of a defense built by Tony Dungy and run by Monte Kiffin. In the years after, he managed only three winning seasons out of six, with two of those being only 9-7. In that stretch, Gruden made the playoffs only once, and was one and done both times.

Add in that a big reason he was fired last year, after one of those winning seasons, was that his players absolutely hated his guts and were in utter revolt at the thought of having to live under Gruden without Monte Kiffin. Do you really want to follow a coach who might have lost his players with one that definitely did?

Edit: Gruden's contract extension with ESPN and comments stating that he won't be seeking any NFL jobs pretyt much close the door on him as an option for 2010, and probably beyond.

[Mr. Scot]

THE RISING STARS

These guys are all potential. There's no head coaching record to speak of. But they fit into Jerry Richardson's preferred way of hiring (build your own star rather than recycling someone else's) and most of them fit his defensive preference. Just a little info on each one:

Ron Rivera

Former Bears DC, current Chargers DC; Has a record of aggressiveness, cutting his teeth under guys like Buddy Ryan and Lovie Smith; Would also be a "Rooney Rule" hire (hispanic); known for emphasizing takeaways

Rob Ryan

Buddy Ryan's other son; aggressive profile and has the genes; not as buttoned down as his brother and has been up for opportunities but hasn't moved up (is there a reason?)

Leslie Frazier

Current Vikings DC and another Rooney rule guy; has worked under both Jim Johnson and Tony Dungy; also like Rivera, known for emphasizing takeaways

Russ Grimm

Cardinals OL coach and assistant head coach; an offensive minded coach but a hardcase and veteran of the Steeler system that Richardson admires

Sean McDermott

Eagles DC and successor to Jim Johnson; results are up and down at this point, and the last few coaches that have been hired after only a single year as a coordinator haven't generally done that well

Keith Butler

Steelers LB coach; Ken Whisenunt wanted him as DC in Arizona but the Steelers protected him; Pittsburgh looks set on him being the successor to Dick LeBeau so he might not be an easy guy to pry away

New additions as of 10/14...

Winston Moss

Packers LB coach and assistant head coach; has a history of coaching good pupils and is noted for leadership abilities and intelligence; a Rooney Rule HC candidate with the Raiders and Rams last year and is probably lucky he didn't get either of those jobs; has worked with both 4-3 and 3-4 systems and fits the defensive coach model

Mike Zimmer

Bengals DC; formerly the Cowboys DC under Parcells; ran some of their more successful units; now working under Marvin Lewis and doing well in a city where it's not easy; was unfortunate to be in Atlanta during the one year disaster that was Bobby Petrino's NFL career; currently the focus of a lot of unfortunate attention because of his wife's sudden unexpected passing

[Mr. Scot]

And the rest...

THE POSSIBLE RETREADS

A couple of guys who might wind up looking for work next season.

Jack Del Rio

Fans who remember his stint as DC love him. They also overrate him. As a head coach, he hasn't even been as successful as John Fox. And his tenure includes some mind-numbingly goofy incidents ("keep chopping wood" anyone?)

Jeff Fisher

To be clear, I don't actually see Fisher being out of a job next year. But then, I didn't see the Shanahan firing coming either. Conceivable? Yeah, but despite having a generally positive rep, his win-loss record isn't as good as you probably think it is. He would fit Richardson's defensive minded, character-oriented model, mind you. And while he might be the one retread I could possibly see myself supporting, I really don't see it happening.

THE COLLEGE GUYS

Let's be realistic here. The clown acts of Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino have made it extremely tough for college coaches to get a pro job. There are likely only a very few guys that are probably worth looking at, and each one has issues.

Kirk Ferentz

He's been asked repeatedly, and has turned it down more than once. I just don't think he wants it. And given what happened with Saban and Petrino, that's a big red flag.

Pete Carroll

Short and sweet. Great college coach. Great defensive coordinator. Not a winner as a head coach at the pro level, and he had more than one shot.

Charlie Weis

Yes, he was a great pro OC (with Tom Brady). His record as a head coach at the college level? Not so hot. Nothing on that resume' to suggest he'd do better at the next level, except maybe as an OC again. And short of being fired by Notre Dame, why would he want that?

THE IN-HOUSE OPTION

Mentioned solely because people have talked about it, not because I think it's a realistic option.

Jeff Davidson

His work as an OC has had its good moments. It's also had it's bad ones. Throw in that Jerry Richardson prefers defensive head coaches. It's all he's ever hired. For that matter, I can't recall for certain if he's ever even interviewed an offensive-minded head coach candidate. That doesn't bode well for Davidson's chances.

[scpanther22]

I said this in another thread.if you want to find potential HC..for us look at the top defenses in the NFL..look at there coordinators and there were you prob will find our next HC

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Well then . . . after seeing that I say fire Fox now and then bring him back after the season when he is a fresh voice to get the guys attention.

[Sam Mills Fan]

I think two guys rise to the top.

[Mesmer]

My first choice would be to go with an up-and-comer kind of guy with an aggressive/defensive mix.

I think as fans we all want to see great defense out there first and foremost. But, I'm tired of the piddle paddling around. I want a coach that will make it his top priority to pressure the other team's QB. Not just rely on 4 guys all the time, and when blitzing works, keep doing it... don't puss out in the 2nd half because you're scared that you'll get burned.

[Sam Mills Fan]

By the way, I keep seeing people post that Cowher wants complete control. Where has that officially been stated? Last time I heard, he wanted to bring Kevin Colbert along with him to wherever he goes.

[Sam Mills Fan]

Although we should all be leery of a guy named "K Colbert" coming in to replace anyone, even Hurney.

[PantherFanNumeroUno]

THE RETREADS

These are the guys everyone talks about because, to varying extents, they're proven. I'd remind people though that George Seifert was as well. I'd also ask anyone to name a coach who won Super Bowls with two different teams. Now I could let you search it yourself, but I'll save you the trouble.

There isn't one.

Five coaches have been to the game with two teams (Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, Dick Vermeil, Dan Reeves, Don Shula) but none of them won in both spots. Keep that in mind while you cheer for a retread.

Tony Dungy

Dungy has loads of respect for the man he is as much as the coach, and he has won a Super Bowl (some would say two). With that said, he seems rather happily retired. And critics of Meeks and his defensive system might want to consider that if Dungy were hired here, he'd likely keep both.

Marty Schottenheimer

Schottenheimer has been a proven, successful coach with several teams in the NFL. That is, if your primary measure of success is winning regular season games. Schottenheimer's teams always fade in the playoffs. Throw in that by the time we get to next season, Schottenheimer will be 67 years old, and besides being the oldest coach to be mentioned here, he's also the only one without a Super Bowl victory to his credit (not even an appearance).

Jon Gruden

Gruden struck at the right time in Tampa, winning on the back of a defense built by Tony Dungy and run by Monte Kiffin. In the years after, he managed only three winning seasons out of six, with two of those being only 9-7. In that stretch, Gruden made the playoffs only once, and was one and done both times.

Add in that a big reason he was fired last year, after one of those winning seasons, was that his players absolutely hated his guts and were in utter revolt at the thought of having to live under Gruden without Monte Kiffin. Do you really want to follow a coach who might have lost his players with one that definitely did?

Brian Billick

Like Gruden, Billick found quick success as a head coach, winning the Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach. Also like Gruden, he never quite got back to that level again. Billick's regular season coaching record is overall better than Gruden's.

His playoff record is better too, but still not a winning one at 3-4, with two one and dones. Again, for comparison, John Fox has both more playoff appearances and wins. Throw in too that while touted as an offensive genius, Billick's Raven offenses were pedestrian. His team's strength was always on defense, units run by guys like Rex Ryan and Marvin Lewis (both of whom are busy right now).

Mike Shanahan

Nobody really expected him to be fired last season, and people feel certain he'll get a job next season. Two things are worth remembering though. One, no one made any effort to go after him this offseason. And two, he never duplicated the success he had with John Elway.

Shanahan had a winning percentage of 73% as a head coach. take away John Elway though, and his winning percentage drops to 57%, and a miserable 1-4 in the playoffs. Just for comparison's sake, current Panther coach John Fox has a career winning percentage of 55%, 5-3 in the postseason.

Mike Holmgren

Speaking of coaches whose best years came with star QBs, there's also Mike Holmgren. Yes, he had one year when he got to the Super Bowl with the Seahawks, but most of the time his playoff appearances fell short. Even when he did get to the big game - famously beating a wonded Panthers team in the 2005 NFCC - his team didn't look so hit (ditto the Steelers honestly, that game sucked). Worth remembering that even when you look at Holmgren's years with Favre, you'll find only one Super Bowl victory in there.

All in all, his record is probably the second best of all the retread coaches mentioned. He's also the second oldest at 63, truning 64 next November. Add to this that Holmgren looked very burnt out in his final season as a head coach and all but mailed it in. With all those things in mind, he might be a decent choice, but he'd be short term only.

Bill Cowher

This is the one loads of fans salivate over. Cowher presided over loads of winning seasons and made it to the postseason plenty. But again, his postseason record (outside of the one year they won it all) isn't as good as you might think (8-9, twice one and done).

Like John Fox, Cowher struck early in his career, going to the Super Bowl in his fourth season as a head coach, but losing. That season included, over the first 14 years of his career, Cowher was thought of as another Schottenheimer type that could get you to the postseason, but not through it.

He finally broke that ceiling in the 15th year of his career. Chew on that number for a moment. Fifteen years to win a Super Bowl, and that in the Steeler system, the same system that took Mike Tomlin to glory in only his second year. In the year following, like Holmgren, he mailed it in.

Cowher bears a lot of similarities to George Seifert in that he took a long time to get back to the big game after early success (Seifert won his first try) despite being in one of the best run systems in the game. Can he win outside that system? Maybe, but Seifert couldn't. Bear in mind also that Seifert wants total control, a model last seen with the Panthers under Dom Capers. Jerry Richardson isn't a fan of that setup, and with good reason. It pretty much never works.

People love Cowher for his fire, charisma and winning record. And while I have no trouble believing that he'd bring the first two factors with him to Charlotte, I'm not convinced he'd bring the third.

Dungy - Probably will stay retired as well as Schottenheimer, although a good poss. for Gen. Mgr. (Schottenheimer)

Gruden - The way he was talking about us (when we beat him while at Tampa), maybe.

Billick - Maybe 3rd choice. Still has some aggressiveness and good coaching ability in him.

Shanahan - Prob. 4th choice. Same as above comments

Bill Cowher - With family here and his allegiance? to Raleigh and the Carolinas, 1st choice. 14 years was a long time, but it paid off! I do believe he knows how to win, aggressively! 1st choice!

Holmgren - 5th choice. The coach I hated when we played GB and Seattle.

[frash.exe]

while i don't necessarily disagree with your assumption about retreads, I will say it's a little unfair to compare everybody who basically built contenders on their teams to Seifert, who basically inherited Bill Walsh's team.

About Dungy I love how he can motivate the guys, but a case could be made that Peyton really carried that team more than any other QB can carry a team (well, maybe except for Brees). And the Colts are 3-0 right now under a rookie HC. ...and, well, i'm just not a big fan of zone coverage schemes, I think they've run their course in the league, at least for now.

I would not consider Marty for a split second to HC either. He's completely inept in the playoffs even though he can win regular season games.

Gruden fits the Seifert mold you mentioned the most out of all of them. The Tampa 2 was one of the most shut down defenses early this past decade. Not to mention when you've coached most of the players you're playing against in the superbowl recently, kind of gives you a rare edge that you can't count on in this league because it's such a coincidental matchup in your favor.

I'm not really keen on Billick or Shanahan either.

Mike Holmgren I would not really want to hire as an HC, but I would take him as an OC, partly because he can get both the passing game and the running game to produce, and partly because he can develop QBs well. Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and Matt Hasselbeck were all coached by him.

[davos]

Ferentz is the only interesting college prospect listed imo.

My favorite would have to be Leslie Frazier for the job and get a stud OC to build a powerhouse offense.

[Sam Mills Fan]

I agree that it's unfair to compare everyone to Seifert. He was in a Bill Guthridge-type situation.