Draft Analysis WR Chris Godwin - Underrated Future NFL Star; Route Mastery, Physicality, And Speed To Succeed

[Saca312]

A name that has set a lot of Panther draft analysts into a happy frenzy was WR Chris Godwin. With an apparent private workout for the Panthers, draftniks are sitting happy at the idea that this prospect is being heavily considered by the Panthers - and for good reason too.

Chris Godwin is quietly being toted around as a possible monster player being under-hyped. With his amazing route-running ability, physicality, and dominant ability to win contested catches, some are touting him as the eventual best WR from this draft class. Considering all this quiet hype, I decided to help skim through some draft reports and ideas to help everyone gain a bigger picture at just what makes this prospect so great.

My "Mini" Scouting

Game Watched: Penn State vs USC 2017 Rose Bowl

 

He's 6'1, 209 lbs with a 4.42 40, 4.00 20S, 7.01 3C, and a 36.00 vertical. If you don't know much about Chris Godwin, he was the guy who absolutely dominated in the Rose Bowl game against USC. His 9 receptions for 182 yards monster of a game is something that'll clearly stick in the minds of draftniks everywhere. Here's some analysis by me from that portion below:

A physical receiver that's hard to bring down. In this portion, Godwin completes what appears to be an in-route in coverage. What I love seeing is how he always kept his back against the defender. He turns around right after the catch with the back right against the defender in a semi-box out style, then retains his solid ground. One technique to make sure no defender attempts to strip the ball from you is having your back against the defender. Two possibilities result from such:

1. The defender will still attempt to go for the ball and commit a sure pass interferance
2. The defender is unable to do anything except wrap and tackle, thus creating a complete play

This technique helps make sure one retains full possession of the ball, and prevents corners from making plays on the ball. Keeping the back against the defender is a technique all WRs must have.

Take what WR Isaiah Ford (an underrated WR who I believe could also blow up the league) does in this example where he could've used this technique to create a completion after a stunning double move:

I mean, I could talk all day about that beautiful double move. He sold the outside route to the penny in how he turned his hips, eyes, and everything to fool the corner to trip up and fall. However, his mistake begins when his incompetent QB underthrows.

He is forced to slow down, and miss-times when he was supposed to do so. Instead of slowing down a bit earlier to gain leverage on the defender, he continues down and allows the defender to catch up without Ford having any leverage on the corner. The result was the corner beating him out to make a solid play.

What Ford should've done was ready his back against the defender right when he makes that catch. He should've ensured he had leverage when the corner came running down by having his back against him, then go for the catch and speed right into his box-out stance you see from Godwin above to make a solid finish to an awesome route.

Godwin shows he can make the physical and smart catches against corners. He's not one to mess around with or take lightly.

Here's another play from his bowl game:

Yes, if you watched the game, this was considered a TD due to him having control by the time his first leg went down.

Anyways watch his physicality and technique on display. He generates a nice move to fool the defender into thinking he's going outside, thus forcing the corner to trip up. By the time the corner stands and regains footing, he's behind the corner and utilizes a nice stiff arm to create further separation for a touchdown. By the time he was in the endzone, it was all over for the corner.

Godwin shows his physicality and decent speed helps create wins in situations such as this. He had 4.42 speed after all, and that's anything but slow in today's NFL.

Here's another play:

In this play, Godwin makes a move then goes for the in route to the left for a nice solid pickup. The fact he knew where to plant his route and the timing was stellar. With the QB underthrowing, he was able to correct that like an "auto-correct" feature by extending his arm out like it was all planned.

This guy makes highlight reel catches like this like it's normal. He's a solid hands guy who's pretty sure to make the catch, and is a true clutch receiver. Trusted for most third down conversions as the go-to receiver, Godwin comes in to make the big play. 

A clutch receiver is certainly something the Panthers need and would covet. Makes sense they're looking at Godwin.

My Conclusion

From what I see, I see a solid wide-receiver who could do damage. He's a physical, dominant, and stellar receiver that gives me a vibe of Anquan Boldin. He's fast when need be, physical to get the ball, and wins his one-on-one matchups to get the ball. He does have average quickness and does take a little bit of time to get to full speed, but he shows he has the route mechanics, physicality, and mentality to do great. I could even see him become a Dez Bryant type of player as his ceiling.

I don't know whether his quickness, or the routes he ran played a part in it, but it did appear he had some issues attempting to get pure separation by speed. He seemed to use his physical nature or moves to get the separation needed, but I don't think that'd be an issue. He did have a few times where he could've shown a bit more burst so he could reach the ball, and instances he could've looked back and tracked the ball better towards the end of the 4th quarter, but he's been dominant for the most part.

Sure, he's not as flashy in some area, but he's still great in plenty. If he can get everything together, you could expect him to be an underrated gem from this draft class. I really liked what I saw, and I think he'd be a solid addition to our team.

Matt Harmon's Scout - The Next Allen Robinson/Malcolm Mitchell Prospect Breakout?:

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-chris-godwin-underrated-wide-receiver-2017-nfl-draft/?udk=mharmon25

Measuring in at 6-foot-1 and just over 200 pounds, Chris Godwin has the build of a top outside receiver. That was precisely the role he played at Penn State.

Every single snap in Godwin’s six-game Reception Perception sample saw him lined up out wide and on the line of scrimmage. He took 56 percent of his snaps at left wide receiver and another 44 percent at outside right. Godwin never ventured into the slot or lined up as a flanker off the line.

Over the last three seasons of studying wide receiver prospects, I’ve begun to pay close attention to the development of players who took the vast majority of their snaps on one side of the field. Receivers like Kevin White and Dorial Green-Beckham operated in this fashion as a collegiate players and neither has managed to make use of their clear athletic gifts at the NFL level.

While transferring the game from one side of the field to the other may seem like simple task to the reader, one must consider the massive amount of muscle memory that the constant reps of football puts into place for a player. Reversing all aspects of route-running, releasing from the line and working the sideline is a greater challenge when you have little to no experience doing so at the college level. These receivers who come into the NFL playing 80 to 99 percent of their snaps on one side of the field are at a disadvantage as a pro offense rarely stations their receiver on one side of the field on more than 60 percent of their snaps. Perhaps this is one of the aspects of the spread an NFL scout had in mind when he told NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks that the proliferation of that offense was killing wide receiver development.

Godwin doesn’t fall into that category since he moved between left and right wide receiver. Yet, it’s still notable that he didn’t take any snaps in the slot or as a flanker and strictly operated as an X-receiver. One has to wonder if that will factor in while adjusting to the NFL level.

After a 69-catch, 1,101-yard season as a sophomore, Godwin fell back to 59 catches and 982 yards as a sophomore despite his touchdown total jumping to 11. Any lack of production in the offense is no fault to the player in this case. Godwin saw a target on 25.9 percent of his routes run over the course of his Reception Perception sample. The two-year prospect average is 33.2 percent and only Tennessee’s Josh Malone checked in with a lower target per route rate among those sampled this year.

When Godwin did see targets come his way he was mostly efficient in converting them. He caught almost 70 percent of the passes sent to him and dropped just 2.3 percent of them.

Contested catch conversion rate

Often times what helps wide receivers off the top tier distinguish themselves is the presence of a trump card in their game. In Mike Williams’ evaluation, it was concluded that his dominance at the catch point gave him a trump card, a skilled exemplified by his 81.3 contested catch conversion rate. Williams’ score is the fourth-highest recorded over the last two years and Chris Godwin has him beat.

Godwin’s insane 85.7 percent contested catch conversion rate is the highest among prospects charted the last two years. He narrowly edged out well-known high-pointer Josh Doctson from 2016, who owned an 85 percent conversion rate.

Not only does Godwin play at an elite level in traffic, he also shows an advanced understanding of timing and hand use when leaving his feet. He’s not as tall as a player like Williams or Doctson, but his ability in the air gives him just as much of a catch radius. His overall play strength makes him a force in close quarters with a defender.

Of course, the true appeal to Godwin goes beyond his trump card trait. His ability as a route-runner and separator must also get the recognition it deserves.

Success rate vs. coverage

While Chris Godwin can come down with catches despite a defender being in his hip pocket in contested situations, he’s also a strong route runner who can leave them behind. Godwin posted a 73.5 percent success rate vs. coverage in the games sampled for Reception Perception. That was the fourth-highest score in the 2017 NFL Draft class and falls at the 76th percentile among prospects the last two years.

Godwin also showed well when facing zone defenses. His 85.5 success rate vs. zone coverage checked in as the fourth-highest among prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft. His 68.8 percent success rate vs. double coverage was above the 80th percentile.

There were a number of reps where Godwin showed off a pristine set of release moves from the line of scrimmage. He used deception, strength and quick feet to elude defenders’ jams off the line. However, there were also moments where those moves faded and he slipped into bad habits. The result was a 68.1 percent success rate vs. press coverage, which was above the average along the 53rd percentile, but was not quite as elite as his other marks.

Godwin, along with John Ross, Carlos Henderson and Ryan Switzer, was one of only four receivers this year to post an above average success rate vs. coverage score against all type of defenses measured. Godwin is the biggest member of that foursome, which just serves to underscore how impressive his route technique is at this stage of his development.

Route data

While I don’t like it to be used as a negative or criticism of a draft prospect’s abilities, one of the trickier parts about projecting college wide receivers to the NFL is how their route trees skew to a small handful of inside-breaking routes. Carlos Henderson, for example, ran an out-breaking route on just 4.5 percent of his patterns sampled for Reception Perception. The NFL will ask receivers to run a wider variety of routes.

Chris Godwin doesn’t come with this asterisk in his scouting portfolio. Not only did he show an ability to run the full route tree, he was quite adept at executing out-breaking routes.

Red is below the two-year prospect average, green is above and yellow is within the average.

While the typical prospect will see their route percentage chart skew more towards the slant, curl, post and nine route, those were the four patterns that Godwin ran at a below average rate. It’s unusual, but Godwin ran the corner (4.6 percent) and out (4.6 percent) routes at rates right in line with the two-year prospect average.

Godwin’s preferred routes were the dig (12.7 percent), comeback (13.3 percent) and flat (9.8 percent) as his usage rate was above the prospect average on those three routes. The dig and comeback are two patterns that take the most detail and technical prowess to run with precision Godwin is much farther along as a route-runner than most of his peers in this class.

While his route percentage chart skewed more toward outside routes than the typical prospect, his route success rate scores show a player who wins in all areas of the field.

The only routes in which Chris Godwin did not post an above average success rate vs. coverage score was the nine and “other.” Godwin’s straight-line speed may not be among the best in the class, and his 48 percent success rate vs. coverage was the fourth-lowest among prospects charted this year. His success rate on the “other” route of 70 percent was within the average. Otherwise, Godwin thrived on all routes.

Despite not running them as much as other prospects over the last two seasons, Godwin’s 86.4 percent success rate vs. coverage on slants and 84.6 percent on posts show off his quickness at the stem of routes. He’s also adept at using the subtle head fakes to take a defender outside in coverage before he breaks to the interior. Once in the open field on those routes, Godwin can be dangerous. Only 6.9 percent of his routes classified as “in space” attempts where he could break a tackle in the open field, but he was dropped on first contract on just 33.3 percent of those attempts.

As mentioned, the dig and comeback route were two patterns Godwin ran at a higher rate than the average prospect. Both difficult patterns to execute cleanly, his use there says a thing or two about his route-running. The fact that he posted success rates of 90.9 and 87 percent of them says even more. While Godwin’s trump card is his ability to win the ball in the air, don’t undersell his ability to separate from defenders and get open.

At just 21 years old, Chris Godwin already shows plenty of polish and seasoning for a young player who may have even more room to grow. He’s a player that comes with a complete skill set as a separator in addition to his work in the contested catch game with the best conversion rate in Reception Perception college history.

With the NFL Scouting Combine upon us, expect the buzz on Godwin to grow as he enters the national spotlight. While players like Cooper Kupp and Zay Jones appear to still be riding the hype of strong Senior Bowl weeks, it will soon be Godwin’s turn to displace them as one of the true sleepers of this draft class.

Much like now Super Bowl-winner Malcolm Mitchell from the 2016 class, Reception Perception identifies Chris Godwin as a player who will likely go outside of the first round but is destined to outperform his draft status. However, as long as Godwin continues to nail the pre-draft process, he could certainly end up working himself into the early Day 2 conversation. The results that lie in his Reception Perception metrics tell us that he is a player well worth that sort of investment.

Matt Waldman's Scout:

What I did go over above was mainly his good traits rather than his need for improvement traits, but Matt Waldman has done a scout video on Chris Godwin that I myself haven't watched yet due to me wanting a clean slate of watching Godwin for myself. So, I'll let you guys watch to come up with your own conclusion:

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/01/23/rsp-film-room-no-92-wr-chris-godwin-extended-look/

Some players are sneaky-good. The Penn State junior who declared for the draft is one of them.

Chris Godwin didn’t wow me with his Rose Bowl performance, but what I saw in this game helped me I understand why he chose to leave Penn State this year. Godwin does some things that are difficult to teach and the skills that he must refine aren’t far from the polish he’ll need to contribute on Sundays.

This 46-minute look at Godwin’s 9-catch, 187-yard day includes targets requiring difficult adjustments to the ball, boundary awareness, framing separation, tracking deep passes, and a variety of route skills.

Because lacks any spectacular surface-level athletic traits, Godwin isn’t an exciting prospect for draftniks. But he’s sneaky good.

What will ultimately separate him from his peers if work ethic and intelligence. If he has these two qualities, he’ll be the type of player that fans of the team that drafted him will someday appreciate as an underrated pick.

[Saca312]

I could honestly see him being picked with our first second round pick at this rate. Hard talent to pass up, who fills our slot, deep threat, and possession need immediately.

[Saca312]

Another nugget: Godwin's specialty are out routes.

Guess which team uses out routes the most?

[Saca312]

 

[Untouchable]

I was impressed with PSU receivers this year (not just Godwin) with there routes.  They stacked corners very well to get separation and be in the better position to win jump balls (and their QB threw a lot of jump balls).

[Toomers]

   Godwin thinks every ball in the air is his. Have been hoping for a shot st 64 but I don't think he makes it that far anymore. Has a legit claim for #4 WR in this draft. Even higher for us because of Williams poor fit. 

 Take him and try to transition Funchess to  a off-line TE/WR hybrid role that matches him up against SS/LB types he MiGHT be able to get separation from. 

  One added note. Barkley is a stud. May be better than any RB in this draft, and should go top 10 next year. 

[Saca312]

2 hours ago, Toomers said:

   One added note. Barkley is a stud. He IS better than any RB in this draft, and should go top 10 next year. 

Fify.

Not even kidding. Barkley is amazing. Next year's RB class looks to be better than this year's, and that's really insane.

[Saca312]

On 4/13/2017 at 7:18 AM, Untouchable said:

I was impressed with PSU receivers this year (not just Godwin) with there routes.  They stacked corners very well to get separation and be in the better position to win jump balls (and their QB threw a lot of jump balls).

Good point. I'll probably look at the rest of them to notice the correlation.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Like I said, I'd rather pick this guy up in the second than Zay Jones.  

[Saca312]

On April 16, 2017 at 4:19 AM, Ivan The Awesome said:

Like I said, I'd rather pick this guy up in the second than Zay Jones.  

Same here. Zay Jones is decent, but he's getting far too hyped up.