Draft Analysis: Analyzing In Detail This Draft Class Runningbacks Strengths And Weaknesses

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In my last official Matt Waldman sample for today, I present a more analytical and statistical side of seeing each running back from this class. With a wealth of data, statistics, and analysis, the sample provided in Matt Waldman's RSP tour provides a huge inside look at each and every running back's strengths and weaknesses from this draft. 

Well organized and informative, I'm sure there's plenty for data lovers like @KB_fan to enjoy sifting through. Sure, most of these charts are rankings based, but some also include statistical data pertaining to running back history and success.

Again, I cannot stress enough how I highly recommend you guys get his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The content I recently posted on Fournette, McCaffrey, and Perine can all be attributed to Matt Waldman's careful and meticulous study provided from such a wonderful piece of work. If you enjoy anything draft-related and want some high quality content, go get it from his website: https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/.

So, without further ado, here's a wealth of information concerning the runningbacks of this year:

Running Backs Through The Years

The NFL rarely makes running backs top-10 picks anymore. Only 17 percent of backs taken in the NFL Draft since 2011 have been first or second round picks. Still, there's still a chance, just like the past two years, that we'll see at least one runner earn a top-10 selection.

Here are the running backs taken in its seven-round draft since 2006.

Here is the average production for rookie runners with at least 100 attempts for the past 10 years.

It is common sense that additional workload will yield additional production. It's more interesting to examine average productivity of runners by the round drafted. Although there were far more players with meaningful production in the first round, the data reveals that there are productive backs taken later in the draft.

Nothing about the data is especially meaningful with this small sample size, but it hints that round is a great driver for opportunity. Still, when backs in the later rounds hit, they boom just as big.

 

The data appears to support my point that the talent is deep at the running back position.

Although early-round backs earn more opportunities to shine, the mid-to-late round runners that earn playing time as prominent contributors still produce as well - if not better - than the marquee prospects. Of the players with at least two seasons in the league, 31 of the 48 backs (65 percent) have been productive starters or contributors for multiple seasons.

Skills Breakdowns

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio checklists assess the player's baseline physical and technical aptitude to become a professional. These skills and attributes are defined in the publication's glossary. However, the checklist isn't designed to differentiate gradations of each skill. The Skill Breakdown reports are an avenue to compare how skilled these players are in each category. The subheadings under each skill should be reasonably self-explanatory, but here's a quick break down.

• Star Caliber: A level of skill that rivals the best in the game at his position.
• Starter Caliber: A level of skill commensurate with a full-time starter at his position.
• Committee Caliber: A baseline level of skill for a player to contribute productively in an offense.
• Reserve Caliber: These players lack some amount of technique or athleticism to consistently be productive, but the skill is good enough to contribute to a team.
• Free Agent: These players lack the minimum skill in a given area to make a team if evaluated strictly by this single component.
• Deficient: The player's skill set is so lacking that they aren't likely to receive interest from a team until it improves to at least a free agent level.

Improvement Spectrum or "Ease of Fix" for Running Back Skill Sets

I include my thoughts on a player's potential to improve his skills within each category. It's important to remember that athletes often enter their prime in their mid-to-late twenties, which is attributable to a combination of increased physical, technical, and conceptual skill.

"Ease of Fix"

The style of the type that I used for each name in these categories indicates a prospect's potential to improve within these skill sets:

• Normal Type: Little to no change projected as this player transitions to the NFL.
• Easy Fix: These skills can improve with ease to moderate ease if the player makes the effort.
• Hard Fix: These skills typically take great effort to address, if possible to address at all.
• Bad Habits: These players have bad habits they need to unlearn - a difficult transition, at best.
• High Ceiling: Aspect of player's game with high-end potential with room to improve.

Power

Simply put, power is a football player's ability to move forward when a defender is there to stop his progress. The variety of methods a player can use to address and overcome this obstacle determines the player's overall score within this category. Walter Payton's style of play epitomized the techniques of a power runner. Payton was not a big back but power often stems as much from aggression, leverage, and determination as it does size and momentum.

Ranges for Power:

• Stars can break multiple tackles, break arm tackles, push a pile, and earn yards after a collision
• Starters can perform 3 of the 4 above.
• Committee backs 2 of the 4 above
• Reserves 1 of 4 above
• Free agents don't consistently demonstrate a single one of these factors

The Best: Hitting James Conner above the waist and expecting this big, strong back from Pitt to hit the turf is a futile endeavor. Conner often requires at least two defenders to bring him to the ground. At worst, Conner should earn short-yardage duty for an offense.

Leonard Fournette is obviously in the top tier. I can't recall many NFL backs in recent years who accelerate into contact with Fournette's violence. With his size and speed, the willingness to attack with this fervor leads to a lot of yards after contact. When he lands his vicious stiff-arm against defensive backs, it's a reminder why we love football.

The strongest back, if not one of the strongest players in this draft, is Samaje Perine. His teammates at Oklahoma have stated long before the NFL Combine that Perine could lift the gym, and Perine gave the league a taste with 30 repetitions of 225 pounds on the bench press - out-performing all but four offensive linemen at the event. Not just a workout warrior, Perine's functional power is even a notch above Fournette and Conner.

Needs Improvement: Dalvin Cook and Joe Williams thrive off speed, quickness, agility, and balance. If they can practice better pad level with greater consistency, they should earn more yards after contact. When Brian Hill uses his pads to attack, he's a powerful, punishing runner with skills that could surprise people.

The Worst: Marlon Mack is an exciting big-play back. He's also a liability as a between-the-tackles runner. He has momentum-driven power and he rarely earns a push because his pad level is too high. He also drops his head on short-yardage runs and prevents him from maintaining balance. Although a separate category, certain areas of balance and power are interrelated. It's difficult to create or maintain a push against an opponent if you cannot stay upright or attain proper leverage. Mack has the size to become a better power runner, but the technique is not there.

Balance

Balance is a core factor in effective ball carrying. It is the combination of a variety of factors including:

• Footwork
• Awareness of one's physical space
• Body alignment
• Strength

A player with good balance can adjust to the force of a hard blow and not fall over or change direction without losing speed or body alignment. Football players are trained to maintain their balance when facing most head-on collisions with a defender, but special players have the rare ability to keep their balance when the direction or placement of the blow is unexpected.

Although an extreme example, Barry Sanders frequently demonstrated throughout his career that a low pad level, uncanny anticipation of defensive angles, and great balance could defeat the backfield penetration of a player with a significant height-weight advantage.

Direct Balance: The RSP defines this subcategory of balance as a player's ability to stay upright agianst head-on contact. It also includes the stride of the player and how balanced he remains while running.

• Stars can win collisions head-on with all three levels of the defense.
• Starters can beat defensive backs and linebackers and force stalemates with linemen.
• Committee backs can win collisions with defensive backs and linebackers.
• Reserves can win collisions with defensive backs and earn stalemates with linebackers.
• Free agents can create a stalemate in a head-on collision with a defensive back

The Best: James Conner, Leonard Fournette, and Samaje Perine can push larger defenders in head-on collisions and it affords them second-chance opportunities to turn through the contact for positive yards in situations where defenders envelope most runners.

Needs Improvement: Brian Hill's punishing running style earned the admiration of his opponents during his junior year. Hill can break tackles and push a pile, but he'd be even more effective if he dropped his pads and attacked defenders with even a fraction of Fournette's ferocity. When Hill does so, he looks like an NFL starter.

Dalvin Cook has good indirect balance, but improved pad level and additional core strength will help Cook become even more explosive and win collisions he doesn't win right now. Joe Williams' speed helps him win direct collisions against defensive backs and some linebackers. Like Cook, additional muscle mass and better pad level could help him elevate his power game.

The Worst: Donnel Pumphrey is an excellent running back, but he will never be a power runner. The only recommendation anyone will give Pumphrey about direct contact is to avoid it as much as possible - something he already does well.

Indirect Balance: The RSP defines this subcategory of balance as a player's ability to stay upright against contact delivered to a player's side. It also includes changes of direction the player executes.

• Stars can win collisions head-on with all three levels of the defense
• Starters can beat defensive backs and linebackers and force stalemates with linemen
• Committee backs can win collisions with defensive backs and linebackers
• Reserves can win collisions with defensive backs and earn stalemates with linebackers
• Free agents can create a stalemate in a head-on collision with a defensive back.

The Best: Imagine a runaway cement truck turning a tollbooth gate into splinters. Do you see it? That's how smaller linebackers and defensive backs look ricocheting off Leonard Fournette and Samaje Perine in the open field.

Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara appear more powerful than they are because their quickness and agility helps them negate the approach angles of defenders before contact. Even so, Cook and Kamara run through a lot of indirect contact. Cook is especially good at bouncing off shots to his legs and re-orienting his body downhill.

Needs Improvement: There are plays on Christian McCaffrey's film where he gets his pads low and drives through indirect contact. He'll never become a power back, but there are times where he relies too much on his agility and quickness on short-yardage plays. If he figures out when to drop the pads and drive, he won't give a coaching staff reason to take him off the field, or only split him from the formation in short-yardage situations.

Ball Handling

The category of Ball Handling incorporates a number of skills ranging from the most fundamental to the highly advanced. A superb offensive skill player not only demonstrates the ability to protect the ball while the target of 11 defenders, but knows when to extend the ball to earn first downs and touchdowns.

The numbers listed at the top of each tier heading are ranges of fumble rates. CBS Draft Analyst Dane Burgler's annual article on fumble rates, bases its tiers on the average fumble rates of the top 10 NFL rushers last year. It's a good idea and Brugler got off to a good start. I decided to build on his analysis because the criteria could be fleshed out into detail with greater context and meaning. For instance, using the top 10 rushers last year and segmenting the tiers into ranges of 25 carries seemed arbitrary after a deeper examination of his work.

There are 32 teams in the NFL, so I created 4 tiers of 8 players apiece. When examining the players with the highest workloads, most of the lead/feature backs were in the top 24. So, I created analysis around the top 24 runners instead of the top 10.

When I examined the average fumble rates for the top 4 producers last year, they averaged a fumble every 86 carriers - a figure that is a below-average rate according to Brugler's tiers. If one were to truly set expectations for fumbling based on the most productive backs, then according to the methodology of this data, one would expect the elite backs to fumble a lot more.

Discovering this, it makes more sense to rank the top 24 producers by fumble rates, not by production. It's good to determine the average fumble rates of starting running backs, but using production in this way is problematic. Here's the difference in the averages when starter-caliber production accounts for the range of players, but sorted by quality of ball security:

The results make more sense because the starters are ranked best-to worse by ball security. How productive a player is shouldn't be such a heavily weighted factor for ball security, when earning a starting-caliber should suffice.

In addition to the way this data was sorted and averaged, I also didn't understand why the fumble rates were grouped by tiers with a range of 25, so I calculated the standard deviation of the fumble rates for the top 24 players.

The STD of 60 indicates that the CBS tiers as applied to my Stack Scores are too narrow. The tiers had too much variation, giving more credit to some runners than deserved and robbing credit from those who truly deserve more.

Brugler did a great job getting the conversation started in our community of analysts and I intend to advance that conversation forward. The RSP will be taking a deeper look at fumble rates to ensure the calculation of rates set a logical expectation when grading prospects to an NFL standard.

The ranges for these revised tiers are listed above the tier headings to the table below. Although the fumble rates are heavily influential with each player's tier placement, the technical criteria for ball handling in the RSP Glossary remains the primary driver for how I score this category.

The Best: Kareem Hunt carries the ball with his elbow a little far from his frame while changing direction, but he has not fumbled the football during his 856-touch college career. Christian McCaffrey's rate of 243.7 doesn't match Hunt, but it's still elite and McCaffrey is a technically sound ballcarrier with the widest range of ball handling roles of the backs in this class. Joseph Yearby wasn't the Hurricanes' starter in 2016, but his 434 touches per fumble is only topped by Hunt.

Needs Improvement: Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jeremy McNichols, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Tarik Cohen all have the talent to contribute in NFL lineups, but they each experience technique lapses when changing direction or fighting for extra yards that could send them to the bench and keep them there if they don't address them.

Kamara, Cook, Foreman, McNichols, and Mixon have highest fumble rates of those talents just mentioned, and they are dangerously close to the reserve tier. Expect most of these players to address the issue this spring and summer or else don't expect them to see significant time in a lineup. For perspective, Kenneth Dixon's fumble rate of 63.7 last year was dangerously close to the reserve tier and he only fumbled once in 118 touches as a rookie.

Speed

A player can be fast in different contexts. Speed can be measured over a variety of distances and directions. 40 yards in a straight line is the most recognizable format that people use to measure a football player's speed. While intermediate to long-range sprinting speed has its benefits, there are other components of being "fast" as a football player.

Short area burst - or acceleration - and non-linear speed from shuttle times are often more accurate representations of the speed required of a football player during the majority of his time on the field. A big difference exists between a player running fast in conditions when he isn't in several pounds of pads, hasn't been hit dozens of times for 45-50 minutes, and when his stamina level is not taxed.

A player running at the combine isn't being tested to think and react to outside stimuli such as a called play or opposing defenders trying to take his head off. So, good reasoning exists to wonder whether functional speed is inadvertently overlooked during the pre-draft evaluation process. A football player that can't make good decisions instinctively is no longer as fast as a player that can react rather than think. These near-instant and instinctive decisions allowed players such as Arian Foster, Michael Irvin, and Priest Holmes to make big plays throughout their careers, while lacking "impressive stopwatch speed" at their respective positions.

The Best: Curtis Samuel has more upside as a receiver, and his 4.31-second 40 would be put to better use in wide open spaces. Joe Williams is a different story. Utah's emergency starter has a great second gear in the open field (4.41-second 40) and his 4.19-second 20-shuttle helps him get into those spaces faster than any back in this class.

Tarik Cohen has Williams' long speed and even better agility. He should thrive as a kick returner and eventually compete for a role as a scatback. If Samajie Grant makes a team, it will likely happen as a UDFA. A receiver for the bulk of his career, Grant had scintillating moments as an emergency starter at Arizona. Grant's speed bolster's the appeal of his versatility.

Monitor: I suspect some may be disappointed that Leonard Fournette ran a 4.51-second 40. However, 4.51 from a 6'0", 240-pound runner is the best time ever recorded for a ballcarrier at this weight. Samaje Perine appeared slower and heavier as a junior. As a freshman, Perine had enough long speed to hold off defensive backs if he got an early angle on them. Perine's 40-time (4.65) resembled that freshman-sophomore year speed and is well within range for an NFL power back.

Kareem Hunt (4.62) and Alvin Kamara's (4.56) 40's reflect their speed on the field. Hunt rarely pulls away from defensive backs and Kamara, who gets run down from behind, loses as many races as he wins.

Brian Hill's time (4.54) was a pleasant surprise. Cast as a grinder at Wyoming, I was expecting him to run more like Hunt.

The Worst: Devine Redding (4.76) is a plodder but has quick enough change of direction to fool the eye.

Acceleration

A component of speed, acceleration is how fast a player can get to full speed from a stop, a change of direction, or from a slower speed. Acceleration is arguably one of the greatest assets a runner has. How much of it he has and how he uses it in the context of a play can tip the scales in favor of a smaller runner lacking top-end speed (Emmett Smith) versus a bigger runner that can pull away in the open field, but has difficulty geting past the line of scrimmage (Bishop Sankey).

The Best: Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Williams, and Stanley Williams impressed at the Combine. The first three have the vision to maximize their acceleration. Williams and Jeremy McNichols aren't false positives, but their decision making inhibits opportunities to use this athletic quality to its fullest.

Although they didn't participate in the 20 shuttle at the Combine, the film speaks well of Donnel Pumphrey, Justin Davis, Samajie Grant, and Tarik Cohen. Davis is probably a surprising mention, but he ran a 4.19 as a recruit and his acceleration is one of a few components in the Trojan's game that makes him an intriguing option who could do better on Sundays.

Monitor: Dalvin Cook's 4.53-second 20 Shuttle and 7.27-second Three-Cone times were disappointments and alarming to those who place high value on these metrics. Someone I know doing analytics for the NFL says the savvier NFL teams are examining Cook's high school times as a better indicator of what he showed on the field.

Cook's SPARQ Score at that Nike Camp was an impressive 110. Here are Cooks Combine and Nike Camp performances and a list of successful NFL players from my database who performed one or both of these drills within the same range as Cook's Combine.

Cook's Nike Camp 20 Shuttle places him in the Star Tier of my Stack Scoring and it fits what I saw on the field far more than his Combine result. Even in Cook didn't perform in this range in the past, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Karlos Williams were in a similar range as Cook's Combine results in the 20 Shuttle and all three were productive backs.

My NFL analytics contact explain NFL Combine testing as a theoretical measure of potential.

"All of the quick-twitch, speed, explosion, and coordinated movement in the world is pretty limited unless you can do it at the speed of instinct," he says. "'He's a rep guy' is a term used in scouting reports all the time, which basically defines [high-performing workout warriors] who get lost on the field without very specific situational preparation and a lot of repetition."

These players perform to the test, but not to the real world. It's why top analytics professionals in the league also view the Combine as process for confirming that the data matches the film and if not, go back to the film.

Jamaal Williams also underperformed on the 20 Shuttle (4.53) and Three-Cone (7.27). Like Cook, Williams ran a faster shuttle in high school (4.31). Williams often reaches the secondary when he exploits a crease, which matches his starter-tier acceleration, but he's often chased down on runs longer than 30-40 yards. In this case, Williams' high school shuttle and Combine 40 (4.59) match his film portfolio.

Needs Improvement: Elijah McGuire's Combine times were similar to Williams', but his film doesn't mitigate the results. De'Veon Smith and Elijah Hood have acceptable acceleration for the college game, but it ends there.

Vision

Two of the most important factors that separate a talented runner from a talented athlete are the level of comfort he has with physical contact (his heart), and his ability to anticipate and exploit the best places to run with the football (Vision). Locating the best place to run requires a runner to vary his rate of speed, set up the blocks in front of him, and move in one direction to exploit daylight in another. 

Vision requires a high level of intuition and backs or receivers with great vision and strong fundamentals as a runner exhibit a style that is akin to a great improviser in music or the spoken word - instinctive, on the edge, but in control of the moment. Vision is the common denominator among great runners. Gale Sayers, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk all had great vision with running styles vastly different from each other.

The Best: Donnel Pumphrey wins with vision and quickness. His execution of San Diego State's Power Blocking Scheme is textbook. When it comes to resisting the urge to bounce plays outside, D'Onta Foreman rarely takes risks he doesn't win.

Dalvin Cook's patience and skill at squeezing through tight creases makes him a dangerous runner. He understands what he's supposed to do and acts without hesitation when he recognizes it developing. He's a fine example of what my NFL analytics contact describes as a player with "speed of instinct."

Christian McCaffrey can second-guess his first decision in short-yardage situations, but his execution with both gap and zone blocks is sound. He's a patient runner who maximizes his change of direction and burst within the context of the play.

Fit-Based: Leonard Fournette can perform in a zone scheme, and he will undoubtedly work in an offense that uses zone plays. However, he's at his best with gap and man blocking where his job is to work downhill, build momentum, and hit the designated crease hard.

Joe Mixon is the opposite of Fournette. Although he can execute gap and man schemes, his patience and agility are better fits for a zone scheme. James Conner is also better running zone than gap.

Needs Improvement: Alvin Kamara takes questionable risks when he freelances from the blocking scheme and in the open field. Joe Williams forgoes designed openings between the tackles for less productive bounces outside on zone plays.

Justin Davis has starter skills as a zone runner, but must develop greater maturity to stick to the plan on gap plays. De'Veon Smith made some puzzling decisions to change direction away from open gaps into penetration. He needs to correct this tendency.

Immediate Fixes Necessary: Marlon Mack bounces plays before even examining the blocks in front of him. He's also an indecisive short-yardage runner who seems confused about how to proceed in tight spaces.

Tarik Cohen's "Human Joystick" moniker comes from his elite quickness and agility to create something out of nothing. Unfortunately, Cohen also generates nothing from something when he tries to bounce or reverse field from well'blocked creases because he's avoiding the one-on-one with the linebacker at the other end of it.

Bigger backs relish those one-on-ones and consider them a win. The smaller Cohen loses these collisions, so his solution is to avoid them and use his athletic ability to freelance on big plays. It won't work as well in the NFL unless he proves he's the second-coming of Barry Sanders -  and Sanders was a much stronger, rugged back.

Elusiveness

An elusive runner avoids a contact. If a runner has sufficient agility to change direction and drive the opposing defender off balance or avoid a direct hit, he possesses an adequate amount of elusiveness to his running style. There are several techniques ball carriers use to avoid hits. Some runners have all the techniques in their arsenal and can keep defenders off balance with an endless variety of moves, while others may only have a few effective moves in certain situations.

The Best: The "Human Joystick" isn't an ironic nickname for Tarik Cohen. Give him open space and he's tough to catch. Marlon Mack bends his hips and weaves through the open field like he's on wheels. Christian McCaffrey has an excellent library of moves and uses them to his advantage.

Samajie Grant is in a different category. He's as light on his feet as any back I've seen since Eric Metcalf. He's so quick in control of his cuts that when he presses tight to a blocker's back and cuts behind it, the lint and turf fibers from the blocker's jersey are the only things that make contact with Grant. I doubt he'll be signed to a tryout as a running back, but it's worth consideration.

Needs Improvement: Brian Hill has a stiff-legged running style. He can make good cuts, but they appear to be the exception rather than the norm. James Conner has a jump cut and a variety of moves, but I'm concerned about them translating well enough to the NFL to have the same effectiveness. They weren't consistently effective at Pittsburgh.

Blocking

Skill players block for the run and pass on a limited basis, but if the play is to have a high level of success, their assignments are as important to execute as of their teammates on the offensive line. A skill player's attitude towards blocking can also speak a lot to the way they approach the game overall:

1. Comfort level with hitting
2. Courage
3. Teamwork
4. Understanding of the offense

Blocking is generally one of the key skills where top prospects need the most refinement before they make the transition from college star to NFL starter. A good blocker sees the field much earlier than his peers with a similar level of talent in other facets of their game. Edgerrin James was a consummate pass blocker as a running back. He made excellent diagnoses of assignments and was regarded as an aggressive, physical hitter on blitz pick-ups. Hines Ward understood how his blocks could turn 15 or 20-yard runs into 50 or 60-yard touchdowns. He also searched out ways to attack the defense after he had successfully completed his first assignments on the play.

The Best: Probably surprising to most, but Jamaal Williams and Joseph Yearby were consistently the best blockers I saw this year. Williams diagnosed assignments and last-second changes adeptly and he had good stand-up form against all three levels of the defense. His head isn't always up long enough working into cut blocks, but he wins far more of these efforts than he loses. 

Yearby is a smaller back,  but he can deliver a punch and he's capable of doing technically sound work against lineman. He picks up blitzes well and some of his last-second assists on linemen that beat tackles and guards were impressive displays of leverage and effort.

Needs Improvement: Dalvin Cook leans too much into his cut blocks rather than shooting and either tips off or lessens the effectiveness of his effort. He also needs to use his hands as a stand-up blocker. Although the argument can be made that a fine receiver like Cook won't be asked to block much on third downs, there are a lot of play changes at the line of scrimmage, and Cook optimists could be glossing over how much this talented runner will have to pass protect.

Wayne Gallman is a smart, physical back with good burst. He also needs to set his feet quicker when pass protecting. He often gets run over or knocked off balance by linebacker and lineman because he's too slow to set up in a square, balanced position. He often telegraphs his cut blocks with poor timing or dropping his head. If he can correct these two issues, he will become a fine pass protector.

D'Onta Foreman has the size to be an excellent pass protector, but he has a lot of work to do. He routinely misses blitz reads. His stand-up game is ineffective because he drops his head into blocks, which tips off his intentions and costs him power and leverage. Foreman also doesn't punch.

Don't Even...: Tarik Cohen, Donnel Pumphrey, and Samajie Grant are barely big enougb to ride the NFL roller-coaster. These three will either be taking the ball from the backfield or split from the formation. If not, I hope the quarterback is planning a one-step drop and quick throw.

Receiving

There are many skills to lump under the category of receiving. For the sake of establishing clear criteria, the checklist format considers:

• The act of catching the football
• The adjustments a player must make with the ball in the air
• How consistently the player makes a reception considering their immediate environment

Wide receivers and tight ends generally run more intricate routes and encounter more complex coverage than runners, so their checklists split out routes from receiving skills. Runners on the other hand, simply have a more generic route-running category grouped with their overall skill as a receiver.

The Best: I hope the NFL team that selects Curtis Samuel converts him to wide receiver. He makes receptions in the face of contact and displays aptitude with down-field routes. Samajie Grant is a wide receiver who I'd like to see converted to scat back, but if given a shot as strictly receiver due to his small frame, he's an excellent ball tracker who isn't distracted by tight coverage.

Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey's reputation as smooth outlet receivers with ball-tracking on vertical routes is justifiable. Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon, and Leonard FOurnette are just as dangerous as Cook and McCaffrey in the vertical game. Cook's high school teammate Joseph Yearby can make any catch that cook can. His skill as a blocker and receiver should get him noticed this summer.

While not used extensively in the BYU passing game, Jamaal Williams is a good hands catcher with body control. He's a better receiver than advertised. Like Yearby, Williams should earn high marks this summer for his third-down skills. UTEP's Aaron Jones made the most impressive adjustments to targets seen from this year's class. His leaping grabs or errant throws in tight coverage top every player on this list.

Needs Improvement: Brian Hill catches the ball with good technique, but suffered more focus drops than those in the Starter Tier. Stanley Williams has the athletic skills to develop into a third-down back but in addition to his struggles as blocker, Williams doesn't use proper hand position for the incoming target and drops passes he could catch.

Durability

The category for durability is designed to measure the player's ability to play with pain, overcome injury, and determine if he has any chronic issues that may prevent him from reaching his full potential as a pro. Some injuries are more a test of the player's work ethic than they are career-threatening occurrence. Others test both their recuperative powers and character.

Durability Concerns

Alvin Kamara: A knee injury while at Alabama forced him to redshirt and he sprained his LCL this year.

James Conner: A Lymphoma survivor, Connor has also rehabbed a torn MCL and missed an entire season with ankle issues.

Jamaal Williams: He missed 2015 with an ACL and PCL tear. He also missed three games in 2016 with a high ankle sprain.

Samaje Perine: He had off-season surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left ankle after the 2016 Orange Bowl and didn't return to the field until fall practice.

Aaron Jones: He missed all but two games in 2015 with a torn ligament in his left ankle.

On-Field I.Q.

I believe the best players not only exhibit impressive skills, but they know how to integrate these individual components into their game and make unusual physical and conceptual adjustments as if it's second nature. There is little to no hesitation whatsoever with their decisions and movements. I like to use the term "fluidity," to describe this behavior. Here are six runners that have exhibited a noticeably higher than average on-field I.Q., and I believe possess the fluidity to become quality NFL players.

• Dalvin Cook
• Jamaal Williams
• Joseph Yearby
• Aaron Jones
• Christian McCaffrey
• Leonard Fournette

All six play within their limitations, but also understand how to make the most of their skills. All six are versatile players despite possessing varying degrees of talent.

Third Down Potential

These runners possess a level of skill as pass protectors and/or receivers that should get them a chance to contribute early in at least a limited role if they possess enough attributes in other areas of their game (no particular order)

• Joseph Yearby
• Jamaal Williams
• Joe Mixon
• Aaron Jones
• Alvin Kamara
• Dalvin Cook
• Matthew Days
• Marlon Mack
• T.J. Logan
• Tarik Cohen
• Leonard Fournette
• Christian McCaffrey

Short Yardage Skills

The following backs have potential to be situation short yardage runners early in their careers.

• Kareem Hunt
• Brian Hill
• James Conner
• Samajie Perine
• Leonard Fournette
• Joe Mixon
• Jovon Robinson
• Elijah Hood
• D'onta Foreman

Special Teams

Second and third day picks often pay their dues on special teams before earning a chance to contribute at their position of choice. These backs have the athleticism, special teams or defensive experience to contribute to special teams and enhance their chances of sticking with a team.

Blockers/Gunners

• Darik Dillard
• Trey Edmunds
• Alex Ross
• Dare Ogunbowale

Returners

• Tarik Cohen
• Samajie Grant
• Aaron Jones
• Christian McCaffrey
• Marlon Mack
• Barry J. Sanders
• Alvin Kamara
• T.J. Logan
• Stanley Williams
• Curtis Samuel
• Joe Williams
• Matt Breida
• Alex Ross
• Donnel Pumphrey

 

 

 

[Saca312]

I would like to advise everyone to please do not quote the original post. It has a lot of information, so obviously it'd be a dumb idea to do so.

Anyways, put feedback in here. It's a lot of good information, and eye opening about the draft.

[csx]

Did you just copy his entire article and paste it here?

[Saca312]

2 minutes ago, csx said:

Did you just copy his entire arrival and paste it here?

Nope. This isn't even 1% of the 1000+ pages he has...

This was a sample you could get from his video as seen here:

Yes, I painfully hand-typed all this.

[LinvilleGorge]

Sample size really skews those numbers when looking at RBs by round. While the stats alone look good for the mid-late round guys, there's a lot less of them.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Very interesting I information. thanks

[arbnranger]

@Saca312 You have some amazing posts. Thanks for all your work. 

[csx]

I guess my question is.....is this distributing a product that is expected to be paid for?

[imminent rogaine]

2 hours ago, csx said:

I guess my question is.....is this distributing a product that is expected to be paid for?

Its football crack.. first hit is for free.

[csx]

9 minutes ago, imminent rogaine said:

Its football crack.. first hit is for free.

The YouTube looks like an overview of the info that's for sale if you go to the site. I was just curious if the op purchased the reports and then pasted them all here. It's great stuff but maybe frowned upon if not more? I don't know...thats why I asked.

[imminent rogaine]

These various metrics basically cemented my personal preferences for this draft.

Fournette

Perine

Jamaal Williams

D'onte Foreman

 

Double dipping at various positions is a DG draft-staple. An RB double-dip wouldn't be a horrible idea considering we have Jstew near the end of his career, a journeyman in Fozzy, and a guy nearing the end of his grace period in CAP. That said, I am intrigued by James Conner in a later round if we decide to double dip. In that scenario, I'd probably prefer a little speed with that first pick -Fournette, Foreman or even a quicker back in the middle rounds.

EDIT: a double dip would also mean that CAP and/or Fozzy get the boot this year.

[The Lobo]

Good stuff. James Connor is a beast. I wonder why we haven't heard too much about him, maybe the cancer he beat?

[Saca312]

3 hours ago, csx said:

I guess my question is.....is this distributing a product that is expected to be paid for?

Wel the fact he presented that in a video sample effectively means that he provided this as a sample of his work. I made sure whatever I posted anyone had public access already, hence why I even went as far as hand-typing segments. What I did was pause the video at intervals to get some of the content. If it wasn't shown in the video, I wouldn't have posted it.

I agree it'd be something to frown upon anything that he didn't allow to become public in any form. I rather feel this post is something he'd be okay with, considering he made it possible to access this content in his sample video.

Instead, consider this more like a sample to draw people in his work. It's fantastic, and I just recommend supporting it.

[KB_fan]

WOW.  Don't have time to read it all this morning, but this will satisfy that craving for football stats for awhile!  Nice @Saca312.  Thanks!