Draft Analysis & Profile - RB Leonard Fournette: Punisher, Mauler, And Monster - A True Powerback

[Saca312]

To commemorate Leonard Fournette's visit with the Panthers today, I thought it would be nice to input a full draft profile of Leonard Fournette. As you probably already guessed, I will be utilizing Matt Waldman's information for the most part, as I truly believe he's one of the best at evaluating runningbacks, wide-receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends. He has done this for years, and his process and way of showing work yet again surpasses my comprehension. His rookie scouting portfolio is amazing, and worth every penny if you love detailed analysis on every player.

The following will be a wealth of information from his works. It's a lot, but amazing and good stuff if you get the time to read it. He's knows his stuff, and it's great and amazing. Give this a read, and I guarantee you walk away learning something and more about Fournette than you've originally conceived.

Without further ado, here's a detailed, near complete profile of the skill-set and talent Fournette brings thanks to Matt Waldman:

**Rookie Scouting Profile: Full Write-Up And Analysis Sample & Summary**

The following is already shown in full on one of Matt Waldman's videos. I did the due diligence of typing the whole thing up and adding pictures/subject heads embodied in: (subject). Yes, you better pie me.

Tier 1: The first four backs [Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, Cook] have a valid argument as the top talent in this class. Surrounding talent and scheme fit will make a big difference for the order of this top tier. When separating these players from these factors, I'd be comfortable [with] any of these four [being successful].

(Background Information)

Major sports media has been an assembly line of hype over Leonard Fournette, generating content that he is the next great running back. As a sophomore, Fournette's skills were put on par with Adrian Peterson and Bo Jackson. Brett Kollmann - who used to produce major media video at NFL Network, and does excellent football analysis of his own that you should check out on YouTube - compares Fournette to Earl Campbell. What's next, Jim Brown?

Yep.

According to a consultant I know with a background as an NFL scout, he says one of the old-school scouts on an NFL team shared the comp to Brown this year. I haven't seen comparisons this lofty since several at ESPN compared Reggie Bush favorably to Gale Sayers.

I heard so much about Fournette that I studied his high school tape prior to his freshman year and after that first year at LSU for RSP Film Room Episodes.

He was good. Really good. But great? I couldn't go there.

The best comparison I could summon was Tyrone Wheatley, a great college power back with excellent speed for his size and a solid NFL contributor.

(Finding The Right Comparison)

When I uttered Wheatley's name, you would have thought I tried to sneak onto LSU's campus late at night and mate its tiger with a bear. People with experience studying players for a living and removed from the passion of Fournette scoring touchdowns for their team liked this comparison. My buddy Chad Reuter, former CBS lead scouting analyst and NFL.com draft writer, was one of them.

As past RSP subscribers know, I like to have a spectrum of players when I do any comparisons. Players are generally an amalgamation of several, and often disparate, influences. Rarely are they spitting images of each other. This is absolutely true of Fournette.

When Fournette finished his sophomore year, I still liked the Wheatley comparison as a low-end name on the spectrum, but I also had a name for the highest end. A name that I didn't mention on social media until late in 2016; Merschel Walker.

Walker, Peterson, Jackson, Campbell, Brown. Fournette is being fitted in the cleats of Football Titans. However, my comparison is a high-end aspiration, though a remote one. I walked by this equipment reserved for the all-timers and considered asking the equipment manager if there was a pair for Fournette, but ultimately kept it moving.

Fournette is one of the great collegiate backs. I am not convinced he will be a great NFL back. Good? Really good? Like multiple Pro Bowls Good? Yes, I see it. But mentioned in the pantheon  of the greatest runners of all time? There's a chance, and maybe he'll accumulate the stats in today's NFL. However, I'm skeptical his name will slip from the lips of players, coaches, and peers as a member of this list when it's all said and done.

Former RSP Contributor Eric Stoner offered a reasonable comparison during a conversation about Fournette last month: Ronnie Brown. The former Auburn star was a 230-pounder with 4.43 speed, excellent feet, and a versatile game that could run by or run over defenders. Brown couldn't stay healthy, but I think if he did, the comparison would be easier to see.

I liked Ronnie Brown as a more reasoned, upper-end comparison for Fournette. Brown had better control of his lateral jump-cut agility than Fournette, but I can see Fournette authoring a career that a healthy Brown could have had - multiple Top-5 statistical years as the workhouse in a power running game.

I had my remote-lofty-aspirational comp (Walker), my reasonable-aspiration comp (Brown), and my good-but-not-great-comp (Wheatley), but I didn't have a player that was within range of the sweet spot attainable-likely surpass able - but realistic expectations for Fournette. It didn't happen until studying his tape for the umpteenth time after the Combine.

That player was 6-1, 230 pounds, earned three trips to the Pro Bowl, had three seasons of touchdown totals that put him in the Top 10 and four seasons in the Top 10 in attempts and yards. This player's best year was a 1405 yard, 17-TD year.

In high school, this player ran a 10.40-second 100 meters - 0.4 seconds better than Fournette's best time in this event. He played 11 years in teh NFL, compiled 9546 total yards and 69 total touchdowns. That player is Stephen Davis - an underwhelming name if you don't him as well considering his production, but one that I think whose career prime and style of play is a reasonable starting point of expectation for Fournette.

As impressive as Fournette's 4.5-speed is at 240 pounds, and as much as I love how he accelerates into contact, it's unlikely that Fournette is the next Adrian Peterson, Bo Jackson, Earl Campbell, or Jim Brown.

And that's okay.

If I were a team, I'd be satisfied if my first-round pick earned 1300-1400 yards rushing and 7-17 touchdowns for 4 of his first 5 years in today's league that's more sensitive about injuries, is pass-heavy, and experiences rampant free agency. That's what Stephen Davis did in his prime.

(Analysis On Fournette As A Player)

A punishing runner, Fournette's greatest asset is his attitude as a finisher. He plays with the self-awareness that he's big, strong, and fast, Unlike Ron Dayne, Michael Bush, Brandon Jacobs, and a host of runners that linebacker-turned-color analyst Chris Spielman has been exhorting for years to "know thyself", Fournette understands that he is a weapon of blunt force trauma.

He will lower his pads and accelerate through the contact of defensive backs, linebackers, and some defensive ends. He wants to be the first to hit in a collision, and he understands that if he hits first, he has a greater chance to control the interaction in his favor.

One of the qualities of Fournette's game that complements his size, speed, and physical, attacking style is his footwork. When most people think of great agility, they think of jump cuts and wide lateral cuts that big, powerful backs like Peterson and Marshawn Lynch performed every week.

Fournette can sometimes hit a good jump cut that appears spectacular, because the result is him flying out of control through the air and occasionally reigning-in the chaos to continue downhill, but it's an uncommon and generally ineffective part of his game. Fournette has stiff hips, and most of his lateral moves cover no more than the width of a gap or half a gap at the line of scrimmage. He won't completely flip the defensive axis of pursuit the way Peterson, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy did in their collective primes. 

What Fournette does as well as those elite backs is stride variation. His ability to change the length of his stride at top speed is as good as any big back that I have watched. It's like watching a 185-pound wide receiver running a stem at top speed, but in a frame that's 230-240 pounds. Fournette's stride variations allows him to subtly alter the angles of pursuit so he can run by them, dip under them, and - most often - plow through them.

His running is a bit of an optical illusion in this respect. Yes, he's a powerful man, but he does a good job of eliminating direct angles of pursuit and many of his spectacular highlights are the product of Fournette creating optimal collision angles so he wins the leverage battle with his pads, his ferocious stiff-arm, and his knees.

The best setting for Fournette's strengths is a gap or man blocking scheme where he can have that seven-yard runway behind the quarterback and use that stride variation to set up creases, hit them hard, and attack the defense downhill with his finisher's mentality. He's an adept runner of these schemes from the I-formation or single back sets.

While Fournette can be effective in a zone-blocking scheme - and it's likely he'll have many of these plays in whatever NFL playbook he's assigned in May - it shouldn't be the predominant scheme for his game. Because Fournette has stiff hips, forcing him to turn parallel to the line of scrimmage is one way a defense can eliminate the strengths of his game. While he has terrific balance against indirect angles of contact while running down-hill, Fournette's balance and strength isn't nearly as effective when he is forced to slow down and cut laterally. His hips don't generate as much explosive power when forced into a dramatic change of direction.

Zone plays demand the runner to press close to the line of scrimmage and then execute a cutback - often a dramatic change of direction or combination of cuts - to access the open crease. His tape has but a handful of instances where he drops his hips like he's sitting in a chair, and explodes 2-3 gaps over with a cut or combo of moves to get downhill. When it happens, he's rarely in control.

Peterson and Jackson could make these type of plays. It's why Fournette isn't them. He also lacks their top-end speed. Watch most of Fournette's runs and you'll see good acceleration, even uncommon for a big back. Brett Kollmann says Fournette clocked the highest mile-per-hour rates this year in football on one of his breakaway runs.

If Fournette consistently delivers at this speed, maybe he approaches the Walker-Campbell portion of the pantheon, but I'm skeptical it's capable of being replicated based on the number of good angles I've seen defensive backs earn against him. Watch several of Fournette's longest runs, and you'll see defenders with angles who fall down due to contact from a blocker.

There are offensive lines in the NFL that open gigantic holes and execute second-level blocks to perfection every week, and if Fournette gets paired with one of these units, you'll see him rip off his share of long runs. however, you won't see him make the kind of stop-and-go, reversal-of-field, make-half-the-defense-miss long runs that Brown, Lynch, Peterson, or Jackson could pull off.

Fournette also has to improve his reads of unblocked defenders at the edges of the formation who are there to contain runs. He'll either miss these reads or ignores them on bounces outside. Again, this is not the strength of this game and that's okay, because he's still an excellent prospect.

Fournette's receiving skills provide additional value. A sure-handed receiver, he tracks the ball well over his shoulder and with his back to the defense. He also executes the back-shoulder routes and maintains possession through physical contact.

LSU didn't have the passing game to exploit this skill with the frequency than an NFL team can. With Fournette's speed and physicality, he'll be a tough draw against linebackers up the seam or wheeling out to the flat after a play-action fake.

He's also a versatile presence on passing downs. Fournette loves to inflict punishment on blitzers. He's a ferocious chipper and he loves to square-up and lower his shoulder into oncoming defenders in one-on-one assignments.

Although he has to stop dropping his head and learn to use his hands and hips as a puncher so he can sustain his contact. Fournette doesn't tip off defenders so they can avoid him. Where he needs to calm down is his chipping. He can become so excited about hitting a defender that he'll hit his own teammate who had the defender under control and knock the defender free of the block. Don't be surprised if you see this happen during Fournette's rookie year and it leads to a sack or two before he's admonished for it.

Fournette's ball security is usually strong. He'll carry the ball high and he gets his elbow tight as he enters traffic. It falters when he's forced to cut east-west or he's fighting through contact.

Because he's a finisher with excellent power and speed, Fournette will always keep plays alive longer than many runners, and it can lead to a higher than average rate of fumbles. I believe teams will have to cope with the fact that Fournette won't always have a low fumble rate every year.

(Conclusion)

It's a little surprising that Fournette has become a polarizing prospect, but it's the blow-back of big media lauding a player so highly early in his career. For big media, it's a beneficial blow-back and likely intentional, because it generates an entirely new story-line.

I see how Fournette's combination of speed and power could lead to a long career of elite production that puts his cleats among those of the titans at the position. I also see how Fournette's recurring ankle issues, tight hips, and a stubborn coach's desire to feature him in a system not optimal for his style could render him a relative disappointment for those eating those heaping tablespoons of sugar that big media has been serving up.

I think both sides are overthinking it. Fournette is an excellent running back prospect. If his legs stay healthy, he has what it takes to earn 1500-1800 total yards and double-digit touchdowns for at least a period of 3-5 years when it hits his prime. That's a little better than Stephen Davis. As long as he enters in an offense that will highlight his strengths, he's a border-line special back, and that's okay.

RSP Film Room: Fournette's LSU's Freshman Year

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/12/05/rsp-film-room-no-16-lsu-rb-leonard-fournette/

Post-holiday weeks are always a difficult transition back to a real world schedule. I have multiple guests I’ve invited to join me in the RSP Film Room, but I didn’t invite anyone for this week. Being it was a solo gig, I took a half-hour to check out freshman running back sensation Leonard Fournette, whom the Sporting News college football preview magazine said was the best back to enter college football in a decade.

I can’t say I came away nearly as impressed as the recruiting analysts. At 6-1, 230 pounds, Fournette is powerful and has decent control of his feet to slide to an open crease and earn yards after contact. However, he’s not a dynamic runner with multiple dimensions when it comes to bouncing plays outside or creating against defensive penetration.

Fournette is a big, strong downhill punisher with enough agility to exploit a overaggressive defense with the occasional cutback. As fun as this freshman is to watch trucking a safety, I’m not sold his running style and athleticism fits “the next special back” label assigned to him out of high school.

See for yourself.

RSP Film Room: Fournette Imposes His Will

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2016/11/29/rsp-boiler-room-no-54-leonard-fournette/

One thing is indisputable about Fournette: He wants to impose his will on every opponent in his path. 

When I get lost in a daydream, and that daydream is about football, one of my football fantasies is to accelerate through an opponent and leave him in my wake like a stray bowling pin flying from the collision.

This is Leonard Fournette’s reality several times a year.

Well-harnessed aggression is a vital part of good football. Fournette’s desire to impose his will on opponents is an admirable and coveted quality.

Even so, it will require a measure of maturity and wisdom from him when he tries to impose it in the NFL.

I have no doubt Fournette will learn these small lessons and deliver even bigger ones to defensive backs in the open field on Sundays.

What will matter most with Fournette’s NFL future is his fit with the offense that drafts him. If it’s a good one, he could approach the lofty expectations of his fanboys. If it isn’t, he could be a source of debate for years to come.

More on that point later.

RSP Boiler Room: No.57 Leonard Fournette and Pacing

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2016/12/14/rsp-boiler-room-no-57-leonard-fournette-and-pacing/

When the brakes go out on the dump truck rolling down a mountainside is bearing down on you, the slightest change in movement will create a reaction. 

Fournette’s best fit is a gap-heavy scheme that creates a downhill exit ramp for him to do his best rendition of a runaway dump truck. And Fournette knows how to use that threat of his 230-lb. frame and breakaway speed to fool defenders out of good angles

RSP Boiler Room No.82: RB Leonard Fournette, Extended Look

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/02/07/rsp-boiler-room-no-82-rb-leonard-fournette-extended-look/

Fournette’s performance against Wisconsin is a good illustration what he is (and isn’t) as an NFL prospect. 

I’ve long rejected the idea that Leonard Fournette is the next Adrian Peterson. It’s not because Fournette is a bad player—although it’s the going perception in some circles of social media.

The idea that Fournette is bad because he’s not the next Adrian Peterson reveals a severe gap in logic. The most important fact to remember is that this conclusion is based on an inaccurate understanding of Fournette’s style.

Backs like Peterson, (young) Matt Forte, and LeVeon Bell have the size and strength to give and take punishment while breaking tackles, but they also have the hips to change direction with skill equal to many scat backs. Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon—a 226-pound runner with good speed and quickness—also has the hip flexibility to execute lateral cuts of great width in tight spaces.

This is not Fournette’s game. I spend 20-25 minutes below with Fournette’s cutups from the Wisconsin game to demonstrate this fact. .

Ask Fournette to execute a change direction wider than a gap’s width when he’s within 1-2 yards of the crease—cutting back from the outside shoulder to the inside shoulder of a blocker in a tight space is something that he can do well—and it exposes the weakest parts of his game. Give Fournette a longer runway to a crease where he can alter his path 3-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and the LSU runner is a monster.

This has nothing to do with vision. Fournette sees the field well. He anticipates penetration and can spot openings at the last moment. He doesn’t have the physical ability to make the wide cuts to act on them with the same success rate as backs with more flexible hips.

When Fournette is forced to make a dramatic change of direction, you’ll often see that he’s leaping, hurdling, or stopping and starting. He’s not usually attempting a hard lateral jump cut. Watch the Wisconsin analysis below and you’ll see multiple examples of what contributes to the best and worst in the runner’s game.

Some of you have noted that Fournette was dealing with a high ankle sprain and it was deemed unlikely that he’d even play. It’s a great point, but here’s a question and counterpoint that I have not seen answered sufficiently:

Can you find 10 plays during Fournette’s LSU career where he has executed a lateral cut where he bends hard at his knees and hips (imagine sitting in an imaginary chair) and changes direction the width of at least two gaps over?

People have tried. I’d settle for five plays, although I bet if you look hard enough you’ll find 10. But that’s the point, it’s not a strong element of his game even when he’s healthy.

Keep in mind that every player as weaknesses. While Adrian Peterson can make cuts that Fournette can only dream about, Peterson also struggles running from shotgun compared to the I or single back sets.

Put Fournette in an offense where he can run behind a fullback or get a longer downhill runway behind an H-back without expectation of significant cutbacks to create on a regular basis, and he’ll wear out the back seven of defenses. The risk of boom-bust is higher with Fournette’s upside because there are more spread concepts in the league these days.

He could also have difficulty finding a good scheme fit with blocking that allows him to reach the line of scrimmage with that long runway . For example, Arizona is a good one, but the Cardinals are rich at running back. The Colts could make it work, but the line is a work in progress.

But if a good fit takes place, No.7 could become the best performer in this rich class of backs.

 

 

 

[ncfan]

Great Stuff!!!

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[h0llywood]

Damn. Is this APA or MLA format.

[Saca312]

5 minutes ago, h0llywood said:

Damn. Is this APA or MLA format.

Well, it certainly isn't MLA...

I hated my college research projects. That gave me an unsettling flashback.

[h0llywood]

16 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Well, it certainly isn't MLA...

I hated my college research projects. That gave me an unsettling flashback.

Good work though.

[Marguide]

At this point, I honestly think McCaffrey would have more value to us than LF. He can take some of Stew's carries, work out of the slot and return kicks/punts. That versatility really appeals to me, and I expect he will produce more yards overall than LF when all is said and done.

[saints4lifeagain]

My biggest problem with most of these breakdowns is they give so much credence to the Wisconsin tape. Fournette was literally in a walking boot leading up to that game. It is not the tape of what he's going to be in the NFL. It's probably some of his worst tape I can watch. I said so to multiple people during the game. He was quite obviously trying to protect his ankle and he lacked his explosion and change of direction. 

Fournette may not have hips like AP or Lynch, but he can make guys miss. He can stop and jump cut. He can put a spin move on you. Reason you don't see a lot of it? He'd honestly rather run guys over. He is a violent man on the football field.

Oh, and don't tell me he's got "good" speed. Good acceleration? I'll give you that. But the guys can run with anyone stride for stride.

[Saca312]

54 minutes ago, saints4lifeagain said:

My biggest problem with most of these breakdowns is they give so much credence to the Wisconsin tape. Fournette was literally in a walking boot leading up to that game. It is not the tape of what he's going to be in the NFL. It's probably some of his worst tape I can watch. I said so to multiple people during the game. He was quite obviously trying to protect his ankle and he lacked his explosion and change of direction. 

Fournette may not have hips like AP or Lynch, but he can make guys miss. He can stop and jump cut. He can put a spin move on you. Reason you don't see a lot of it? He'd honestly rather run guys over. He is a violent man on the football field.

Oh, and don't tell me he's got "good" speed. Good acceleration? I'll give you that. But the guys can run with anyone stride for stride.

The gifs and pictures weren't originally there. I added them, but Waldman does watch a lot more than just "one game". Those were just gifs I had available to add flair to his write-up.

Waldman gives Fournette a lot of credit though, as he is his number 1 back from this class, but he's attempting to lay down a more realistic goal Fournette could achieve than immediate super-stardom.

I view it like Waldman just trying to ensure the kid doesn't disappoint. Being compared to a better version of Stephen Davis in his prime is nowhere near bad, and should be viewed as a compliment. Waldman is just saying don't consider him a HoF RB before he even enters the NFL.

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

6 hours ago, h0llywood said:

Damn. Is this APA or MLA format.

lol

[panther252]

What a writeup! 

[PandaPancake]

[PandaPancake]

[Paa Langfart]

11 hours ago, Saca312 said:

I also see how Fournette's recurring ankle issues, tight hips, and a stubborn coach's desire to feature him in a system not optimal for his style could render him a relative disappointment for those eating those heaping tablespoons of sugar that big media has been serving up.

bad ankles huh?  dont we already have one of those ?

[imminent rogaine]

I really like that Ronnie Brown comp. I totally see that. He seems a bit more fluid than the Stephen Davis we got toward the end of his career but Davis was a work-horse; I don't think anyone would be upset if what you got was Stephen Davis instead of an unrealistic AP, Jim Brown and Earl Campbell rolled in to one.