NFL Draft Podcast - Talk About RBs, Cam Newton & QBs, + Tid-Bit On TE OJ Howard W/ My Own Comments

[Saca312]

Recently, I came across a very interesting podcast about the upcoming draft. This podcast is contributed by arguably one of my favorite draftniks who seems to have one of the most intriguing systems of evaluation I've seen to date. Matt Waldman knows his stuff, and very informative in his analysis. He gives detail after detail in his way of thinking, and how he comes to his conclusion.

One thing from the podcast I'd like to first point out is how he used Cam Newton as a comparative tool in a section of his QB analysis part. Just look at this nice little segment on how he gives Cam Newton credit for his phenominal pocket presence of his rookie year, and how such will allow him - and other QBs with this skill - to remain in the league for decades (9:40 in the video):

When Cam Newton is poised and comfortable - standing fast in the pocket and surveying defenders - he's at his best. There's no doubt Cam Newton was a monster his rookie year, and was arguably the best offense he had in his tenure with Carolina so far. When he has solid pocket presence, Cam Newton not only prolongs his career, he plays at a higher level.

Nevertheless, the main meat from this podcast is the nice, juicy analysis on runningbacks in this draft. 

To begin, here's the link to the podcast. I'll post some notes and information that I've noticed below:

18:50 - RB Leonard Fournette - Best RB From The Class, But Will He Be A Superstar?

One the most interesting opening conversations beginning in this podcast. They talk about Fournette, and how Matt Waldman doesn't believe he's going to be that type of runningback that transforms the league. He still believes he's the best back in the draft, but they all come to the consensus he's not quite Adrian Peterson's level. 

They explain how Fournette is a scheme-based boom-bust prospect of the draft, and how he may literally be the biggest risk of the draft. If he is forced into a zone-based shotgun scheme instead of a team highlighting his strengths as a downhill power runner, he will bust out and be a mediocre lug. They explain how he would've been far and away the best back in 2008, but since the league has transformed to a spread based scheme with speedy genetic freaks, it's a lot tougher in the league. His cuts are not that sharp and he's just not the most nimble or explosive. 

One thing that stands out is his Stephen Davis comparison. Not the Davis of the Panthers or Rams, but the one of Washington and in his prime. His hard running to get every yard is someting that stands out, and how Fournette's upside is Stephen Davis in his prime - and possibly better.

They tamper him at a reasonable ceiling rather than putting him as the best back of the century, but a solid, powerful back that has the upside of Stephen Davis with potential to be better and more. He's the best runningback from the draft, but he may not be as big of a superstar as most think.

His success lingers on the team that takes him and their scheme. 

30:10 - RB Christian McCaffery - The Safest Runningback From The Class

In this segment, they begin talking about Christian McCaffery, and how he's arguably the safest pick in the draft. They go back to that interesting analogy of comparing these runningbacks to 2008, and how McCaffery would've probably been in 2017 Fournette's shoes in being a boom or bust prospect in that age's NFL. In the modern NFL, McCaffery is the safest pick of them all.

His versatility and ways NFL offenses can weaponize him makes him all the more valuable. From being your receiving threat, your occasional blocking RB, to your ground-game pure runner, McCaffery can do it all. They talk about that versatility and how Stanford's offense made him prepared to be NFL-ready from the get-go. With Stanford running a pro-style scheme, McCaffery is likely able to slide in any team's situation and dominate.

What he does best is getting in between the tackles, then being the skinny dude in the second level and getting those yards. He may never be your power back that you use to snatch those short yards, but he'll be your elusive, twitchy guy. They talk about how well he compares to Brian Westbrook, and how he could honestly be a better version of Reggie Bush's hype. McCaffery has a ton of talent and ways to use him, and they argue how he's the second best back from the draft easy.

34:30 - RB Dalvin Cook - Durability Issues And Ball-Control Hamper His Stock

What Matt Waldman likes to say first and foremost he judges football players based on production, and tries not to be the judge on good or bad. He looks at a football player based on how they are as a football player, rather than input character into the overall assessment. Based upon that football assessment, he has him as the 4th overall best runningback in the draft.

While you can argue all you want about Cook's character flags (which I'd argue are far worse than Mixon's), Cook still has some talent. Matt Waldman explains how he could've been the best back from this class had he not had so much durability and ball-security concerns. Matt Waldman explains how he doesn't have much concern on his disappointing combine workout, and how he does not show those weaknesses on tape.

Dalvin Cook is slightly like Devonta Freeman, in how he has a low vertical but still have a shot at being a legit back. He's not that powerful, but he does have fantastic burst and speed and a unique running style. He bounces off hits, and bends around in a unique way to get the yards he needs. He's a finesse runner, and uses his blockers to his advantages more than any back from the draft, and his patience in his craft. He's a lot like Le'Veon Bell in his vision and patience. When he sees his hole open up, he'll burst through at breakaway speed.

Now, Dalvin Cook will likely not be your power back. He's not a good pass protector at all, and may never be. He's rusty in his technique and weak overall, and will likely make 2016 Tolbert look like an All-Pro. Cook will not push through defenders and be the intimidating runningback that will punish defenses with strength. Sure, he's a good runner and receiver, but he won't be an intimidating, short-yardage powerback. He will likely not achieve that level.

Dalvin Cook - aside his off the field concerns - is a decent back. However, he won't be a powerback, and his durability/ball security is worrisome. He could be the best back from the draft, but these issues made them drop his stock down to #4.

42:08 - RB Jamaal Williams - Sleeper Runningback Of The Class?

Matt Waldman has expressed multiple times about his crush on Jamaal Williams. He loves the kid, and loves his intelligence. He's mentioned how great his feel for the game is, and how he'd translate into an instant NFL starter. A comparison he's made to him is Ricky Waters, and how much he looks just like him.

He's one of the better pass protecting runningbacks of this draft class, and he's an underrated receiver. He makes the cuts and angles that get the yards, and is intelligent in how he plays. He loves the game, and knows so much about it, and appears to be the guy who's willing to learn and get better at his craft.

He's not the flashiest, but he's one of the more solid options in this draft class.

45:22 - RB Joe Mixon - The Next Matt Forte?

Again, you can argue all you want about Mixon's off the field concerns, but he's a very talented back. His skills are undoubtly high level, and he plays really well. So much so, Matt Waldman has him as his number 3 overall runningback from this draft. He's pretty good, and any team that grabs him when his stock falls will get a huge steal.

Whatever you think of Mixon's character, you can't argue he's a talented football player. He's very good at jump cutting and making those slashing moves you see from Forte and Freeman all too often, and how good of a receiving threat he is. He's an all around solid runningback with instant starting potential. He has great speed to get away and hit the homerun, and playmaking ability for any team.

He can run inside and outside, and get short gains and long gains. He's a fantastic runningback and football player, and will be a solid playmaker in the NFL. He's talented, and very good.

Whether or not you think he's a bad person, or a misunderstood person, whoever grabs him will get a star.

48:10 - RB Samaje Perine - Toughest Runningback In This Class?

One thing I liked was Matt Waldman talking about Samaje Perine as a 'cement truck.' When guys hit him, they're basically butter falling off a hot skillet. He bounces off tackles, carries guys down the field, and is a solid, tough back. His power is incredible, and his play punishes anyone daring to try to stop him. He plays very smooth, and his runs are just silky fluid.

However, he does need to get his weight under control. When he does, you'll see production in relation to his freshmen year. The combine has shown he has that potential to be a really good runningback in the league, and may come out as a steal in the draft. If he keeps his weight in check, he'll be a dominating back in the league for the years to come. They go as far to say he'll be in his prime for 8 years or longer.

Samaje Perine may very well be the steal of the draft, and one of the toughest power runners coming out of the draft, with potential to be a great runningback if he can return to his freshman year form.

56:45 - Deepest TE Class He's Seen; OJ Howard Not Worth A Top 10 Pick?

To wrap things up, Matt Waldman applauds how amazing this TE class this year is. He mentions he has 5 TEs from this class who'd be the top 5 if you combined the last 3 years of TEs. He'd put these five guys from this year above a guy like TE Hunter Henry from last year. 

That's how deep this draft class is.

One guy he particularly likes is TE Jeremy Sprinkle as a possible sleeper TE. He has him as the #7 TE overall, and an immediate starter. The only reason his stock is pretty low is how he's likely not going to be a DynastyFF breaker, but will be an impact player on any team. He mentions how he could fit on the Colts to replicate Dwayne Allen's production and better, or any team with a 2 TE set that needs another solid option. He talks about his solid pass protection, and how he is a viable receiving threat. 

He then keeps reiterating the talent and depth of this amazing TE class, but he then comes out and gives a blunt assessment on how overrated OJ Howard truly is (1:00:39). They mention how they'd rather take Jeremy Sprinkle in the 5th round than take him in the 1st round anywhere. They then talk about how they're overhyping him as a superstar, but no one is buying it.

When you look at his production in Alabama, you don't see a star. He's used a lot on shallow routes, and a blocker. However, you just never see him make the catches or plays you'd see from David Njoku, Bucky Hodges, or guys like them and get those big-boy, NFL style plays. He seems to be unable to get much YAC, and just an average presence on the field. Granted, the two biggest games of his life, he showed up well, but his overall career doesn't show that. You'd think if Alabama considered him to be this superstar, he'd be utilized way more by a coach known for bringing the best out of every player.

At this point, Howard is pretty much overhyped and his potential is the only indicator for any success in the NFL. Focus and effort are his questionable traits. What Matt Waldman noticed was how the coaching staff at the Senior Bowl ripped Howard on multiple instances, with the Browns coaching staff at the forefront in all the irony. The Browns have good coaches, no doubt about that, though their FO is horrid. These questions and value make these guys think Howard is not worth a high first rounder in this stacked draft class.

TL;DR - Watch the podcast. Good stuff.

 

 

[JawnyBlaze]

"Almost" AP is good enough for me, even if it is underestimating Fournette a bit. 

[Saca312]

3 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

"Almost" AP is good enough for me, even if it is underestimating Fournette a bit. 

I wouldn't mind. Fournette could very well be a Stephen Davis 2.0 for us, except in his prime and potentially better. You could sell me on Fournette or McCaffery right now at pick 8.

[LinvilleGorge]

What is a "DynastyFF" breaker?

[Saca312]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

What is a "DynastyFF" breaker?

Fantasy Football superstar. Dynasty FF is effectively as if you were keeping the same team year after year, and then betting on who's coming out of the draft and breaking out year after year as a fantasy football star.

Basically, a guy who'd give you a lot of fantasy points. As a football player, he'll contribute and help out in that area.

[LinvilleGorge]

Yeah, I'm sure NFL GMs are taking a player's fantasy football value into account when evaluating a player's stock.

 

[Saca312]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, I'm sure NFL GMs are taking a player's fantasy football value into account when evaluating a player's stock.

 

Lol, that's not the point. In this instance, it actually parallels with draft scouting and finding the best player. You want to find prospects that won't bust and will be stars, and the gems along with it.

Matt Waldman does bring out his RSP for part draft knowledge/gem scavenging, but he also gears it towards DynastyFF where it's key you find those gem type guys to sustain a strong team, since they act as NFL GMs year after year and draft players for their team they keep year after year.

He explains anyhow Sprinkle will be a solid TE in this class, and he does have that DynastyFF bias in putting him as low as #7 overall. But he'd easily be a solid guy in the NFL, just not as flashy.

[TheSpecialJuan]

This is good. thanks for posting

[Saca312]

6 hours ago, Promethean Forerunner said:

Finally, another person not falling for the overhyped Howard stock.

Lack of effort and focus. Shocking. Waldman went easy on him though. I still consider Howard a pussy for allowing smaller guys push him around.

Yep. Overhyped, especially in this deep TE draft.

[shaqattaq]

10 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

"Almost" AP is good enough for me, even if it is underestimating Fournette a bit. 

That's like saying someone is "almost" as bada$$ as Chuck Norris. Not a bad compliment.

[shaqattaq]

1 hour ago, Saca312 said:

8 hours ago, Promethean Forerunner said:

Finally, another person not falling for the overhyped Howard stock.

Lack of effort and focus. Shocking. Waldman went easy on him though. I still consider Howard a pussy for allowing smaller guys push him around.

Yep. Overhyped, especially in this deep TE draft.

I think that Williams is really good, and will have an instant positive impact on the team (full disclosure: I said the same about Henry last year, and wanted him bad at #30). I just think there will be a better talent available at #8. Honestly, I see us going DE (Thomas or Barnett) even if Fournette is there, I think that's how G-man thinks. 

[d-dave]

Nice find.  This highlights how crazy this draft is and how, at 8, we literally have a million different options! 

Today, based on how things I read about players and how much I slept the night before shapes my opinions, I wouldn't be adverse to trading down if someone else grabs Fournette before us.  While there are guys like Howard who do look really good in a vacuum, it's never a vacuum.  I'll admit, I'm getting gun shy on Fournette, but then again, I'm just a dumb fan =)

[Saca312]

10 hours ago, d-dave said:

Nice find.  This highlights how crazy this draft is and how, at 8, we literally have a million different options! 

Today, based on how things I read about players and how much I slept the night before shapes my opinions, I wouldn't be adverse to trading down if someone else grabs Fournette before us.  While there are guys like Howard who do look really good in a vacuum, it's never a vacuum.  I'll admit, I'm getting gun shy on Fournette, but then again, I'm just a dumb fan =)

A dream scenario of mine is us trading back, grabbing McCaffery, and then picking up Perine in the 3rd or 4th round as our power future.

 

[Panthero]

19 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

A dream scenario of mine is us trading back, grabbing McCaffery, and then picking up Perine in the 3rd or 4th round as our power future.

 

then instead of two TE sets, we could have two RB sets