First 7 non QB/o-line picks from 2011-2016

[panther4life]

Most experts and mocks seem to think this may be the first draft in years to not include a QB and or a O-lineman in the first 7 picks. 

Heres a look at the first 7 picks to come off the board that were not a QB or O-line player by position since the new CBA with the current rookie wage scale.

15 Outside rushers  2.5 Average almost an even split between 3-4 stand up rushers and 4-3 DE's.

10 CB's                    1.66 Average

8 WR's                     1.33 Average

3 Interior D-linemen .5 Average

3 RB'S                      .5 Average

2 4-3 LB's                .33 Average

1 Safety                  .166 Average

1 Tight End             .166 Average

I decided to take it a step further to see how much o a gamble we are taking, banking on other position's to make it to 40. For this exercise I only include players who were not part of the top 7 mentioned above. For example in 2016 you had CB's go 10 and 11. But due to the QB AND O-LINEMAN taken ahead of them they've already been accounted for above. 

After the initial top 7 Non QB AND O-linemen heres the additional number of those positions taken before the 40th overall pick from 2011-16.  I dropped DT's and 4-3 LB's from this list.

EDGE. 23            3.83 Average

CB'S. 22              3.66 Average

WR'S.  20            3.33 Average

Safeties 11          1.83 Average

RB'S.  7               1.166 Average

TE'S.  6               1 Average

 

If strictly looking at pick 40 and averaging out. 

Your looking at having your choice of the 

7-8th Edge rusher taken

6-7th Corner taken

5-6th WR Taken

3-4th Safety taken.

3-4th TE taken

3-4th RB taken

At both the 8th and 40th spot based on history the top 3 most likely positions to go above us remain. 1. Edge Rusher, 2. CB, 3. WR.  Once you get to 40 you'll notice a bigger run on safeties than RB's, while T.E's remain 6th. 

 

Does this history impact your thinking on our top 2 picks?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uscgamecocks]

3rd safety should be Budda Baker or Obi. Either of those would be great at 40.

Taking the best corner or the second best pass rusher at 8 would be great - from a value perspective - if they fall.

Great analysis - this clearly shows which positions the NFL places a premium on:

QBs

Pass rushers (and OTs to stop them)

CBs (and WRs to beat them)

Free agent $ allocation correlates with how team are spending their draft capital.  It's why you don't see a lot of RBs and LBs in the top 10 - there's a real benefit to not having to pay top FA dollars for premium positions.

[panther4life]

5 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

3rd safety should be Budda Baker or Obi. Either of those would be great at 40.

Taking the best corner or the second best pass rusher at 8 would be great - from a value perspective - if they fall.

Great analysis - this clearly shows which positions the NFL places a premium on:

QBs

Pass rushers (and OTs to stop them)

CBs (and WRs to beat them)

Free agent $ allocation correlates with how team are spending their draft capital.  It's why you don't see a lot of RBs and LBs in the top 10 - there's a real benefit to not having to pay top FA dollars for premium positions.

When looking at trade values. I could see us trying to package our 3rd, (98)4th, (115) and our 5th (152) to try and move up at some point. 

Packaging those together alone could get us back to 78 if the Ravens wanted to deal. (My favorite scenario)

Or we could package all of those with 62 to get back around pick 43 (Eagles)

Lastly if we wanted to use those picks we could get back to around 27 (Chiefs)in the first if wanted to move up from 38.