Won't be there...WR and TE

[Woodie]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You still think G-man is 100% BPA after watching him panic spam picks at CBs last year?

 

I've always said BPA is relative, and at the coaches meetings the other day Rivera was asked if we'll be taking BPA or try to fill a need.  In his explanation he referred to it as the "best available need."  I don't know if it was a slip, but I think that is a pretty accurate description of BPA for teams.  I think true BPA is a nice story, but team needs always factor in when making your big board.

[panther4life]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You still think G-man is 100% BPA after watching him panic spam picks at CBs last year?

 

I think he exclusively goes BPA in round 1.Shaq and Butler all but confirm that. After that all bets are off. 

 

 

 

[Cpt slay a ho]

Bpa needs to die, there's no way for outsiders to know how our big board looks, so therefore the only way we can decide if any pick made by dg is a reach,is by comparing where other analyst have players rank or rated.

 

I understand the need to replace players or have leverage but we're spending draft picks chasing the future.

 

 

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[dpm0409]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Agreed. I don't think he panicked as much as people think. We got two CBs, one whole played great and the other who was an OK starter. That's great for rookies. Saying BPA is just silly though. No one can ever go pure BPA. There's always other considerations and even subconsciously the positions of need could impact your board a bit. If someone is 1 spot higher but will sit behind a starter under contract for 4 years, is any team taking him over the guy one lower if you have a hole there?


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Completely agree.  It just isn't feasible, or sensible for that matter, to draft with a true 100% BPA mentality.  It's a good philosophy to use as a guideline to make sure you don't reach for a player, but far from the only consideration that carries weight when drafting players.

[Panthero]

17 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think the main point to take from this is that the odds of their being two TEs taken in the 1st round seem slim to none. 

This does nothing to change my wishlist for the first four picks:

1. Fournette

2. WR (Zay Jones is my pick for right now)

3. DE (still sticking with DeMarcus Walker here for the moment) 

4. TE (Leggett is my pick for right now)

Now, the odds of it actually working out like that are probably also slim to none, but ideally speaking that's what I'd love to see.

Need a Corner there as well. Either a combo slot/SS type like Budda Baker or a guy that can be opposite of Bradberry to let Worley shift in and play that role. 

[Panthero]

7 hours ago, grimesgoat said:

Other than the WR at pick 40, I generally agree.  I go back and forth between OJ and Fournette in the first.

But we have 2 guards that will be looking to get paid next year as well as a center that is not getting any younger.  Some have argued Dave drafted Butler because he needed some leverage or a backup plan in case the Star/Short combo got too expensive.  I think Dave will do the same thing this year and draft a G/C at some point in the first 3 rounds.  I like Eiflein myself.  What do you think? 

Yes, and Elflein serves the purpose of being a long term solution at Center once Kalil hangs it up. Elf or Pocic (combo G/C types) are important picks for us for too many reasons to not draft one. Also, could look at JJ Dielman in the later rounds who could be a RT/C combo guy. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

18 hours ago, AU-panther said:

"He won't be there" is a pretty common comment around this forum at draft time so I thought it might be interesting to actually look at how many players are usually drafted at certain positions in each round.

For this post I just looked at WRs and TEs for the past 6 drafts.

This table is players picked in each round.

    WR                 2016     2015     2014     2013     2012     2011      AVG

Round 1                4           6           5            3           4          3            4.2

Round 2                3           3           7            3           5          4            4.2        

Round 3                2           5           3            5           4          4            3.8

Round 4                6           4           5            4           8          5            5.3 

Round 5                5           6           3            2           3          4            3.8

Round 6                7           5           5            4           4          4            4.8

Round 7                6           6           5            5           5          4            5.2

 

Also decide to look at it based on some of our actual draft picks.

This table is total players before each pick.

WR                    2016         2015       2014      2013     2012   2011     AVG

Pick 40                 4               7             6            4           5        3          4.8

Pick 64                 7               9            12           6           9        6           8.2

Pick 98                 9             14            15          11         14      10         12.2

Pick 115              12            16            17          13         17      13         14.7

__________________________________________________________

TE                        2016     2015     2014     2013     2012     2011      AVG

Round 1                0           0           1            1           0          0            .33

Round 2                1           1           3            3           1          2            1.8        

Round 3                2           3           3            2           2          1            2.2

Round 4                1           1           0            2           4          3            1.8 

Round 5                0           5           1            1           0          2            1.5

Round 6                4           5           0            3           1          1            2.3

Round 7                1           4           2            4           2          3            2.7

 

Also decide to look at it based on some of our actual draft picks.

This table is total players before each pick.

TE                    2016         2015       2014      2013     2012   2011     AVG

Pick 40                 1               0             2            2           1        0           1

Pick 64                 1               1             4            5           1        2           2.3

Pick 98                 3               4             5            6           3        3           4

Pick 115               4               4             7            7           5        5            5.3

 

I don't get it

[LinvilleGorge]

16 minutes ago, Panthero said:

Need a Corner there as well. Either a combo slot/SS type like Budda Baker or a guy that can be opposite of Bradberry to let Worley shift in and play that role. 

Just give me a Xavier Woods type in the 5th or 6h.

Or even better, Jalen Myrick.

[Panthero]

22 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Just give me a Xavier Woods type in the 5th or 6h.

Or even better, Jalen Myrick.

those are good players at the slot. You feel Worley can cut it, long term, as a number 2 CB? I'm not saying i don't, just curious what people feel on that. 

[LinvilleGorge]

19 minutes ago, Panthero said:

those are good players at the slot. You feel Worley can cut it, long term, as a number 2 CB? I'm not saying i don't, just curious what people feel on that. 

I don't know. I'm definitely not 100% confident on that one but I do feel like we're going to give him that opportunity.

[AU-panther]

 

9 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You still think G-man is 100% BPA after watching him panic spam picks at CBs last year?

 

Or 2015 when we chased need after picking Shaq in the first round.  We traded up for both Funchess and Williams, which were positions of need.

I prefer to think of BPA as filling needs without reaching too much.  There are times when we might go true BPA, Butler maybe, but there are definitely other times when need is factoring in.

Speaking of the 2015 draft, that draft is a good example of what I was talking about earlier, you have to look at the draft as a whole and decide where in the draft you can fill certain holes.

For those that don't remember we started that draft with 9 picks, ended up with 5 players.  We drafted Shaq in the first and then had to trade up for Funchess and Williams, which felt like need picks to me.

How do people feel about those trade ups now?

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

 

Or 2015 when we chased need after picking Shaq in the first round.  We traded up for both Funchess and Williams, which were positions of need.

I prefer to think of BPA as filling needs without reaching too much.  There are times when we might go true BPA, Butler maybe, but there are definitely other times when need is factoring in.

Speaking of the 2015 draft, that draft is a good example of what I was talking about earlier, you have to look at the draft as a whole and decide where in the draft you can fill certain holes.

For those that don't remember we started that draft with 9 picks, ended up with 5 players.  We drafted Shaq in the first and then had to trade up for Funchess and Williams, which felt like need picks to me.

How do people feel about those trade ups now?

 

 

Didn't like the Funchess trade at the time and like it even less currently.

The Williams trade I was okay with. Even if he's never anything more than a solid backup, we needed talent at OT and a solid backup OT is decent value in the 4th round.

[Marguide]

In spite of what DG says, I think he has certain guys he really wants leading up to the draft, and then he panics a bit when he sees them come off the board. 

My guess is that he is probably regretting moving up to get Funchess and will perhaps be more conservative in the future.

[AU-panther]

7 minutes ago, Marguide said:

In spite of what DG says, I think he has certain guys he really wants leading up to the draft, and then he panics a bit when he sees them come off the board. 

My guess is that he is probably regretting moving up to get Funchess and will perhaps be more conservative in the future.

If I remember correctly he even said something about players were coming off of their board quickly.

This kind of goes back to what I was saying earlier about being able to predict where you can select certain players.  Judging talent is just part of drafting, being able to figure out what other teams are going to do is part of it also.

Maybe Shaq was BPA but lets imagine if we hadn't picked him.

We traded up to 41 for Funchess, we drafted Shaq at 25.  What if we had picked Funchess at 25?  If you are willing to trade up to 41 he probably isn't far off at 25 either.  Then you could have kept your original 2nd (57), 3rd(89), and 6th(200).  Since you still have your 89th you could have easily picked up Williams. who we traded up to 102 to pick. The trade up for Williams cost the team 124,161,242.

So in hindsight you could have picked:

Funchess at 25 (we drafted at 41, so pretty safe he would have been there at 25)

Kept 57

Williams at 89 (we drafted at 102 so pretty safe he would have there at 89)

Kept 124

Kept 161

Mayo at 169 (actual pick)

CAP at 174 (actual pick)

Kept 200

Kept 242

So instead of Shaq we could have had a 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th.  Would any team in the league trade us that for Shaq now?

BTW I think Shaq has the potential to be a really good player, I'm just not sold on the draft as a whole. Maybe going a little more need based would have resulted in a little better draft.