Stats Analysis: Leonard Fournette - 2015 VS 2016 Production

[Ivan The Awesome]

To me this is a non issue.  Simply because he's been far removed from that injury.  Nothing came out in the Combine that he's injured or anything like that. 

 

It all depends on what evolves in the offense. I believe Fournettes FB never got enough credit. He's the one that read the line and the gaps for him.  Fournette isn't good at that. This is the sole reason I would think the Panthers wouldn't take him at 8. This and the fact that he maybe picked up by the Jaguars. 

 

The other reason is probably because there will be a better prospect at a different position available. 

[tiger7_88]

Fournette is an outstanding RB.  This I do not deny.

But I said long ago what the update to the OP states: he is NOT effective out of the shotgun or from any kind of backfield "option" play.

He is a DIRECT downhill runner. What I mean by that is he heads to the "hole" for which the play is called, whether its there or not.  What he does NOT do is wait for a hole to develop at the line, plant his foot, and make his cut into the hole (which Stew does very well). 

[uscgamecocks]

Running from shotgun requires a different skillset than running out of a traditional set.

It's not necessarily as simple as "well he can just learn it."  Fournette had not demonstrated that the has the lateral quickness to excel from shotgun nor the aptitude for sifting through the wash and bursting into space.  Anecdotally, I'd say that Deangelo always looked more comfortable in pro sets and Stewart excelled from shotgun.

Fournette has shown that he is an elite power back that thrives with a lead blocker and defined reads.  When his blockers keep him clean into space he is among the best at maximizing yards and inflicting pain on defenses.

Similarly, you can't just stick Cam under center 70% of the time and expect to get the same results as we have gotten from our shotgun-based offense.  It's not that Cam can't throw from under center and look good doing it.

It's that a traditional under center passing offense is heavily timing-based.  A QB's reads and throws are synced to the steps in his drop (you can't throw mid step).  Routes, windows, timing are all schemed around a QB's consistent drop mechanics and QB reads are heavily scripted.

Cam hasn't shown that he thrives in that kind of structure.  One valid criticism of Cam is that he's more of a see it, throw it type of QB.  Consistent anticipation is not his strength.  His ridiculous arm talent allows him to thrive despite the anticipation not always being there.

Do we draft a RB and shift the offense away from what maximizes the talents of our MVP QB?

Do you trust Shula to coordinate that timing-based offense?

If we were drafting Fournette and changing the offense to be I-form dominant, shouldn't we have spent money on a top-level FB in free agency?  Two of the best were available and we didn't indicate one iota of interest.

I get why everyone likes him as a prospect. Fournette is so much fun to watch and he matches our smashmouth mentality.  I'm just not sure his game matches our style of offense.

[Nails]

4 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

God I hope not.  I would bet money that Barnett will be a bust. 

If a man had poor work ethic, questionable character, was a one year wonder, played against inferior competition, disappeared in big games, etc. it'd be one thing.  That's not him.

[DaveThePanther2008]

12 minutes ago, Nails said:

If a man had poor work ethic, questionable character, was a one year wonder, played against inferior competition, disappeared in big games, etc. it'd be one thing.  That's not him.

Discussed this before.  He is a pass rushing specialist.  Not a 3 down DE. 

We have pass rushing specialist.   We need an every down DE at #8 and the only two that comes Close are Thomas and Garrett.

[d-dave]

I know I love watching Fournette's highlights.  He just looks like a nasty man.  He makes it hurt to try to tackle him.  I love it.  I think a lot of us Fournette hopefuls would see drafting him as a sign of an offensive philosophy change.  I also think that ankle will be fine by opening day 2017.

BUT, I appreciate all of the counter points to my blind fanboy optimism.  We WOULD have to make a conscious change.  Are we going to reinvent the wheel?  Doubtful.  Will we instead rate players on how well they fit our current scheme?  I think that's fine.  I'd love to find a set of fresh legs to who can take the reins from Stewart when he inevitably gets hurt.  But that guy is going to have to have success working out of the shotgun.

Good points folks!

[Ace_Aladdin]

10 hours ago, Saca312 said:

I recently came across a nice article pertaining to the strengths and weaknesses of Leonard Fournette, a likely prospect we may be looking at for #8. He's considered as "one of the best runningback prospects since Adrian Peterson" and a transcendental talent. Arguably, it would be asinine for the Panthers to pass up this player at number 8 if he truly is that huge of a prospect, right?

Well, since I'm hounding on LSU boys today, it's Fournette's turn.

From this article, his stats reveal quite a lot of things. Plenty of things come into focus from the stats itself, and may cause one to rethink Fournette's worth at #8 overall, or reaffirm that notion. 

https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-fournettes-2015-and-2016

I'll let you peak at this guy's intro to set the table:

So, here's a look at what this guy says.

Fournette: Better Yards Created Per Attempt In 2016

His comments:

So, it appears the idea that Fournette's production decreased due to his ankle injury is unfounded and unrealistic. Fournette had virtually the same numbers in 2015 and 2016, and could arguably have done better in the 2016 season. Now, that looks good, doesn't it? 

It's pretty good, but it does show his injury isn't much of an excuse that many like to assume. 

Anyhow, off to more data:

Missed Tackles: A Huge Difference

His comments:

What this reveals is something I have touched on before in one of my other posts. Fournette's not an elusive guy anymore, and it's certainly hard to ignore these statistics of his latest season. Consider that we're drafting the 2016 Fournette vs the 2015 Fournette, and it'd be hard to bank on his return to 2015 form immediately.

This data also reveals he's one of the worst at missed tackles in recent years during his 2016 campaign. Huge dropoff from his 2015 campaign. To put it frankly, he forced 44% more missed tackles in 2015 than 2016. That's very concerning.

However, he still could easily be better than 2016, so it's fair to assume he'll likely be average to above average starting out in the NFL remaining healthy, so I wouldn't put too much weight and negativity into here.

Shotgun Production: Worst RB For It In Past Two Years

Now, this is where it gets dicey. Consider our old offense, and how heavily we relied on the shotgun. Now, one could argue Cam would thrive if given the chance to play under center, and our offense will evolve to that, but even so you still can't take out Newton's threat to run on every conceivable play.

Fournette needs to work on this and fine-tune such production real fast.

Anyhow, here's his conclusion:

So, Fournette is a special downhill runner, but one of the worst out of the shotgun and EW running. Should be a tad concerning.

Considering he should be heavily scheme limited, this puts a cap on the potential and hype this guy brings in my honest opinion. If this keeps up, he may not be the best runningback since AP after all. Even AP could cut AND run downhill coming out of college, yet Fournette is limited.

Anyways, what are your thoughts? What do you make of this data?

EDIT: I mentioned below some new findings. Cam Newton plays 9.2% of his snaps from center, and usually looks very uncomfortable in those situations. That would not play well if we were to draft Fournette, as Fournette's weakness is the shotgun.

I believe this means that Fournette will not be in play at 8 after all. If we were to evolve towards Newton's strengths, we cannot try and force him into somewhere he's uncomfortable with. Makes me reason Fournette is not the pick even more.

 

[Nails]

1 hour ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Discussed this before.  He is a pass rushing specialist.  Not a 3 down DE. 

We have pass rushing specialist.   We need an every down DE at #8 and the only two that comes Close are Thomas and Garrett.

Simply not true.  Of course anyone can improve in anything in life, and this vet DE rotation is the ideal place for a 20 year old to grow into a perennial all around Pro Bowl DE.

[DaveThePanther2008]

11 minutes ago, Nails said:

Simply not true.  Of course anyone can improve in anything in life, and this vet DE rotation is the ideal place for a 20 year old to grow into a perennial all around Pro Bowl DE.

I am no expert on this but from what I have read he is a good pass rusher and fair against the run (college run game).  Plus after Thomas and Garrett college DEs scare me too much.  Too much of a change to bust.

A player at 8 should be like Luke.  A stud inside and out. 

I think Fournette has a better chance of being that stud inside and out over Barnett. 

[Nails]

7 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

I am no expert on this but from what I have read he is a good pass rusher and fair against the run (college run game).  Plus after Thomas and Garrett college DEs scare me too much.  Too much of a change to bust.

A player at 8 should be like Luke.  A stud inside and out. 

I think Fournette has a better chance of being that stud inside and out over Barnett. 

Fournette is my 1b and I'd be equally ecstatic.

[DaveThePanther2008]

2 hours ago, Nails said:

Fournette is my 1b and I'd be equally ecstatic.

Would be nice.  He is going to be a beast.  I will say this.  If DG selects Barnett than I will be 100% behind him.  I believe that man does his homework especially on 1st rounders.

BTW it is nice to actually disagree with someone and not get called an idiot or some other odd name because I don't agree with you.  It is noted and appreciated.

[Saca312]

If Fournette lands with the right team, he'll be good. Probably one of the best downhill runners in recent years. However, his shotgun production wouldn't even warrant a 7th rounder in this draft, and there's a reason Cam has only been under center 9.2% of his snaps.

I just question whether Fournette is a good fit at all. Not questioning his talent, but his fit.

[LordOfDaWingz]

Several things when comparing the running backs. Look at LSU adding situation and also look at the defenses Fournette has had to go up against. Can you imagine his numbers vs PAC12 and Big12 opponents?

Another thing to note is that we could easily go from shotgun to pistol formations. Pistol formation might fit our team better anyway especially with Fournette in the backfield.


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[LordOfDaWingz]

*passing game