Stats Analysis: Leonard Fournette - 2015 VS 2016 Production

[JawnyBlaze]

4 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

McCaffery later is intruiging, but I'd rather draft a runningback prospect later in the draft. Feel we can get better value at #8 than a runningback.

And, to further emphasize Cam's inability to play under center:

Oh, and to do you better:

Now, these are play-action dropbacks from under center, which is where he thrives in. He needs the space in order to do well.

Wait I'm confused. Is Cam incapable of passing from under center and uncomfortable with it, or does he thrive dropping back from under center for PA passes?  Can't be both.  He does fine dropping back from under center. 

[Saca312]

1 minute ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Wait I'm confused. Is Cam incapable of passing from under center and uncomfortable with it, or does he thrive dropping back from under center for PA passes?  Can't be both.  He does fine dropping back from under center. 

I miss-phrased that part, which is why I edited it.

Look at his mechanics moreso than the results. Play action gives you more time to find an open target, but tell me right now Cam looks comfortable doing any of that under center.

Here, this dude explains it better:

 

[Snake]

40 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Well, I just came across a daunting fact that less than 10% of Newton's snaps are from under center, so I'm very concerned that Fournette just doesn't fit at all for us if we want to maximize Newton's strengths.

Most people over looked that fact. It's a important one too. That and jstew is not the same back as Fournette. 

[JawnyBlaze]

6 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

I miss-phrased that part, which is why I edited it.

Look at his mechanics moreso than the results. Play action gives you more time to find an open target, but tell me right now Cam looks comfortable doing any of that under center.

Here, this dude explains it better:

 

Eh, I'll take random internet dude's opinion with a grain of salt. I watched the whole 4:47 minute video. Not a single errant throw in it.  Particularly fantastic was the throw around 2:00 that had no PA and defenders about to cave his face in almost immediately.  Ridiculously good throw to KB. This Billy guy seems to do good work, putting together videos and such, but I don't think Cam struggles nearly as bad as you're saying Billy is saying.  Cam didn't look uncomfortable to me, other than the discomfort that came from pressure in his face almost immediately when he wasn't rolling out on a PA pass.  

Cam's mechanics aren't great by the classical standards, it's just who he is.  He throws off his back foot a lot (because most of his career he's had to with the quality of protection he's given).  But even off his back foot he can heave it like 60 yards and drop it in a bucket to Smitty at the 3 yard line against the redskins.  Where classical mechanics would require him to take the time to set his feet there, his ability to make those throws without that extra time and motion makes plays happen.  Sometimes it leads to high or erratic passes.  It is what it is *chews gum*. Gotta take the bad with the good.  It would be impossible for Cam to do what makes him special if he did everything "the right way".  

[Panthers8969]

so it sounds like he's really just arguing cam needs more time to throw, and to a lesser extent WRs that can get open? I agree he looked uncomfortable and had weird/bad throwing mechanics on a lot of those throws (to he's credit a lot were still completions). Idk his full argument here, but from what you posted PA passes limit his vision and cam gets pressured and flustered if no ones open? Sounds like a good oline would fix a lot of that. How did he do with PA in 2015?

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good stuff

[Hoenheim]

Alright if you're hellbent on Fournette not being a fit, then which RB in this draft is the best fit?

And who do you think we take with pick 8

[Marguide]

I did an analysis back in 2012 or 2013, and our offense, and Cam, were better when he was under center than in the gun. That may have been an anomaly because since then, he seems better in the no huddle/shotgun formation.

Fournette is a really good player, and I would not be disappointed if he were the pick. But I would be lying to say that his ability in other than an I formation is not a concern. A small one but a concern nonetheless.

All I ask is we address offense. Whether that be Fournette, or Howard or a WR.  On paper, our defense is already loaded, at least in the short term. It's time to give the same resources to the O.

Given the current rules, the days of winning games 10 to 7 are long past.

[Hoenheim]

Thank you Marguide that perfectly sums up my opinion on this draft. I really hope they draft at least 2 offense players in the first 4 rounds, preferably in rounds 1 and 2. In recent memory we have had lots of defense loaded drafts with occasional late round offense picks to mix it up (with the exception of Kelvin + Funchess) . Time to change the draft game up a little for this year and even out the talent of the offense and defense. Give cam deadly weapons and he'll shine. Hell, he shined with the likes of Philly Brown and Tedd Ginn Jr. in 2015.

Can you imagine if Cam had some trancendent talent like Julio Jones , Terell Owens, Randy Moss? ESPECIALLY someone like Moss just plays to Cams strengths to a T.. tall, deadly fast, great deep threat, Cam has a insane arm and throws beautiful deep passes and seems to like going for it all.. We could sort of sniff the potential with Ginn's two good seasons with us, and Ginn has otherwise been a very subpar WR in any other team. The perfect complement to Cam's game is a gamebreaking long limbed speed demon with great hands and a burning desire to win just like Cams. The Panthers organization would do well to find a player like this for the team and Cam's sake.

I think Kelvin and too a much lesser degree Funchess are more like complementary #2 WRs at best. They are possession guys without great YAC, don't separate from defenders well, not deep threats, but can win 50/50 balls, good in the red zone.. I just wish one of our receivers would have the heart of someone like Steve Smith, none of them have that dog in them like Norman or Smitty did that "it" factor that makes great players shine.

[Cpt slay a ho]

My thing with fournette is if we can't keep teams from stacking the box his talents will be wasted, think gurleys season,last year since there passing game wasn't scaring anyone


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[CPF4LIFE]

I don't want to run out of the shotgun anymore anyway. I hate it now and it Cleary rarely produces anything now. Ca. Getting back under center and play action is what is gonna evolve the offense.

 

[Toomers]

  Let's make sure everyone giving this credibility,  sees the authors final thoughts on Fournette.

 

Fournette’s Future

There is no doubt Fournette will be a fairly divisive prospect. He will surely get criticized for “running upright”, he’ll be demeaned for lacking wiggle in short areas, and he’ll be knocked for not having A-plus receiving skills. While each case against Fournette is valid, it misses the broader point.

The catalog of running backs that compare to Fournette’s running style is very small. The key takeaway here is that the relative uncertainty surrounding Fournette’s habits should not belittle or make him a lesser prospect because of his dissimilarities relative to other players. The former-Tiger possesses an aggression on the field that is absolutely astonishing. Yards Created picked up on Fournette’s dynamism. Even while Fournette was playing hurt in 2016, he went out and posted one of the single best Yards Created per attempt scores in my books.

Fournette is sure to have his detractors — both in media and with teams — leading up to the draft. Be that as it may, Leonard Fournette possesses unparalleled power, speed, and burst for a running back of his proportions. He is unequivocally a unique talent. 

[Woodie]

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I think it'd be much easier for Fournette to learn to operate in a shotgun or pistol or whatever formation than if we were to get one of these other inferior backs and expect them to learn to just be a lot better.  

Yep. The thing is that those who are working so hard to justify not taking Fournette use the fact he lined up  predominantly behind the QB and rarely in shotgun as a big reason why.  What they fail to consider or acknowledge is the fact that he can learn to do it; after all, it is a learned skill and not an inherent trait.  The difference between can't and hasn't is huge...just because he hasn't done something doesn't mean he can't do it.

He's a similar runner to Stewart, and would be used much in the same way.  And there's no reason to think he can't adapt to the shotgun.  Even so, I think the offense will be changing this year anyway (according to the coaches), so none of us knows how much we will use the shotgun anyway.  Regardless, I have no doubt  Fournette will be fine either way (if we somehow do get him...which I think is extremely unlikely). 

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

2 hours ago, Nails said:

I appreciate your time and effort but I'm utterly amazed at the time and effort these posts must take.  Who knows, maybe Fournette really DOES go to the Jaguars and my #1 Barnett is the pick after all.  

Fournette is still a freak.

God I hope not.  I would bet money that Barnett will be a bust.