Stats Analysis: Leonard Fournette - 2015 VS 2016 Production

[Saca312]

I recently came across a nice article pertaining to the strengths and weaknesses of Leonard Fournette, a likely prospect we may be looking at for #8. He's considered as "one of the best runningback prospects since Adrian Peterson" and a transcendental talent. Arguably, it would be asinine for the Panthers to pass up this player at number 8 if he truly is that huge of a prospect, right?

Well, since I'm hounding on LSU boys today, it's Fournette's turn.

From this article, his stats reveal quite a lot of things. Plenty of things come into focus from the stats itself, and may cause one to rethink Fournette's worth at #8 overall, or reaffirm that notion. 

https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-fournettes-2015-and-2016

I'll let you peak at this guy's intro to set the table:

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A lot can happen in a year. That’s especially true in football.

Injuries, scheme/personnel changes, and general talent degradation all work in ways to change year-over-year player performance. After struggling through an ankle injury for all of 2016, Leonard Fournette missed six games and averaged 26% fewer rushing yards per contest compared to 2015. To that point, after ripping opposing defenses for 1.83 rushing scores per game in 2015, Fournette’s touchdown output dipped by nearly 38% in 2016 (1.14 RuTDs/game).

It’s clear that Fournette’s 2016 counting stats suffered from his balky ankle, but what does the Yards Created data have to say? Well, I took the time to go back and chart five games of Fournette’s 2015 season and compare them to his already strong 2016 Yards Created data.

The results were pretty telling.

So, here's a look at what this guy says.

Fournette: Better Yards Created Per Attempt In 2016

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NAME	G	ATTEMPTS	YARDS CREATED/ATT.
Leonard Fournette (2016 Season)	5	99	5.83
Leonard Fournette (2015 Season)	5	96	5.85

His comments:

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I’ll admit it: This figure certainly surprised me. Because Fournette was hurt in 2016—the severity of which is still unknown—I assumed he would post slightly better Yards Created/Attempt metrics in 2015. That just wasn’t the case.

In fact, at least on a per carry basis, Fournette may have been slightly better in 2016 when adjusting for defensive pressure. Fournette faced seven or fewer defenders in the box on just 33.3% of his attempts in 2016, which is the lowest figure in my database to-date. This simply means that Fournette saw eight or more defenders in the box on an extraordinarily high amount of his carries in 2016. (For reference, the average college running back faces seven or fewer defenders in the box on about 70% of their carries).

In 2015, Fournette faced dramatically lighter boxes. There were seven or fewer defenders in the box on 63% his carries two seasons ago—which is still below the sample average—but it certainly makes Fournette’s injury-riddled 2016 look all the more impressive.

Even while playing through an explosiveness-zapping ankle injury, Fournette battled through tons of defensive pressure and still came out well above average on a Yards Created/Attempt basis. However, the notion that Fournette’s on-field performance suffered dramatically in 2016 is entirely unfounded.

So, it appears the idea that Fournette's production decreased due to his ankle injury is unfounded and unrealistic. Fournette had virtually the same numbers in 2015 and 2016, and could arguably have done better in the 2016 season. Now, that looks good, doesn't it? 

It's pretty good, but it does show his injury isn't much of an excuse that many like to assume. 

Anyhow, off to more data:

Missed Tackles: A Huge Difference

His comments:

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Unlike his consistent Yards Created/Attempt metrics year-over-year, there was one figure that reversed dramatically from 2015 to 2016: Missed Tackles Forced.

There is no denying ankle injuries are particularly straining for running backs. Decreased ankle flexion disallows runners to be as explosive, decisive, or as potent as they need to be. Leonard Fournette is a fantastic case study in this regard.

Remarkably, Fournette forced more missed tackles (MTs) per attempt through power, speed, and elusiveness in 2015.

One of the biggest hang-ups in Fournette’s 2016 data was in missed tackles forced, but his season two years ago reveals that he is one of the most powerful runners since Yards Created began in 2016. At 0.23 missed tackles forced per attempt through power (which I define as running through arm wraps and/or defenders), no running back has made more defenders miss via power alone in my coffers than Fournette’s 2015 season.

Moreover, Fournette’s strong general missed tackle per rush attempt figures in 2015 suggests that not only is he a highly creative runner on a per carry basis, he is also diverse in the ways he can make defenders miss. On a missed tackles forced per attempt basis, Fournette’s 2015 season ranks fourth-best behind Joe Mixon (0.570 MTs Forced/Att.), Dalvin Cook (0.495), and Tyler Ervin (0.482) while his 2016 campaign (0.252) is the single-worst data point I have charted among college rushers to-date.

While we can’t just toss away Fournette’s 2016 data, there is no denying Fournette’s elusiveness and ability to make defenders look silly is top-notch when he is fully healthy. Fournette’s suddenness, raw speed, and lateral agility were all demonstrably more impressive in 2015 than in his final collegiate season.

What this reveals is something I have touched on before in one of my other posts. Fournette's not an elusive guy anymore, and it's certainly hard to ignore these statistics of his latest season. Consider that we're drafting the 2016 Fournette vs the 2015 Fournette, and it'd be hard to bank on his return to 2015 form immediately.

This data also reveals he's one of the worst at missed tackles in recent years during his 2016 campaign. Huge dropoff from his 2015 campaign. To put it frankly, he forced 44% more missed tackles in 2015 than 2016. That's very concerning.

However, he still could easily be better than 2016, so it's fair to assume he'll likely be average to above average starting out in the NFL remaining healthy, so I wouldn't put too much weight and negativity into here.

Shotgun Production: Worst RB For It In Past Two Years

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Fournette really struggled out of the shotgun at LSU.

In 2015-16, Fournette ran out of shotgun on 22.1% of his attempts and averaged an abysmal 3.50 Yards Created/Attempt on such carries. Over the past two years, no running back (other than Fournette) has averaged fewer than 4.0 Yards Created/Attempt out of shotgun. To me, this is the ultimate dilemma with Fournette. Perhaps the sample is still too small to make whole judgments, but there is no refuting that Fournette is demonstrably better with the quarterback under center. In 2015-16, Fournette averaged 6.50 Yards Created/Attempt with the quarterback under center, which is miles ahead of the second-best runner from either I-Formation or Singleback in my database, Christian McCaffrey (5.66 YC/Att.).

Now, this is where it gets dicey. Consider our old offense, and how heavily we relied on the shotgun. Now, one could argue Cam would thrive if given the chance to play under center, and our offense will evolve to that, but even so you still can't take out Newton's threat to run on every conceivable play.

Fournette needs to work on this and fine-tune such production real fast.

Anyhow, here's his conclusion:

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Although it was surprising that Fournette did not create more yards per attempt in 2015 when compared to his last collegiate year, he was unequivocally more nimble and sudden in his movements when healthy. A strong showing in Missed Tackles Forced in 2015 crushes one of my main concerns over Fournette: He is certainly more elusive than his 2016 data indicates.

What’s more, Yards Created data also reveals that Fournette improved ten-fold as both a receiver and pass blocker in his final college year. In 2016, Fournette improved in Receiving Yards Gained per Route Run by 1.99 yards year-over-year and bumped his Pass Protection Execution rate by 7%. Fournette may never be a passing down maven, but his Yards Created does show rapid development that could continue on the right team at the next level.

This comparison exercise answered three key questions about Fournette’s on-field performance, his ability to make defenders miss, and his improving contributions on passing downs.

Taking out the proverbial time machine definitely answered questions over Fournette’s elusiveness as a ball carrier. To that point, Fournette is a special athlete when adjusting for straight-line weight-adjusted speed, but he still has major work to do as a contributor when his team is playing out of shotgun in the NFL. Fournette is fantastic and his 2015 data certainly answered a bunch of open-ended questions, but his one glaring weakness remained when his quarterback is not under center. There is a lot to love in Fournette’s game and it’s easy to get weighed down on negative traits, but his struggles while running out of the shotgun at LSU cannot be ignored. 

 

So, Fournette is a special downhill runner, but one of the worst out of the shotgun and EW running. Should be a tad concerning.

Considering he should be heavily scheme limited, this puts a cap on the potential and hype this guy brings in my honest opinion. If this keeps up, he may not be the best runningback since AP after all. Even AP could cut AND run downhill coming out of college, yet Fournette is limited.

Anyways, what are your thoughts? What do you make of this data?

[LinvilleGorge]

It's hard for me to interpret the data simply because of how bad LSU's QB situation was. Defenses were constantly locked in on Fournette.

Yeah, if you're trying to run from the gun with little credible passing threat, it's probably not gonna work out so well.

[Saca312]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's hard for me to interpret the data simply because of how bad LSU's QB situation was. Defenses were constantly locked in on Fournette.

Yeah, if you're trying to run from the gun with little credible passing threat, it's probably not gonna work out so well.

The issue is the film shows he can't cut sharply well near the line of scrimmage. Went over that issue in an old thread a while back.

He'd have a hard time doing what Stewart seems to do every play last season and avoid these close up encounters.

[LinvilleGorge]

The bottom line is that we have to block better. When you're asking your RB a to constantly deal with defenders in the backfield, your running game is going to struggle. 

[Panthers8969]

I am a fournette fanboy(his understudy Guise is also really good too),so i may be a bit biased. However, I believe he was playing through an injured ankle. As that author touched on, his missed tackles numbers decreased severely from 2015-16. What 5 of that was bc of formation or stacking the box or a bad ankle is tough to say, but id rather risk a pick on him at 8 that has an insanely high ceiling 

[Saca312]

Well there goes ALL argument that Fournette will be the pick at 8. If Fournette is unable to play shotgun, and since Newton doesn't do center, well...

https://offcoverage.com/digging-into-questions-about-leonard-fournette-43e192cf1a95?gi=10e365192ca9#.fopnndffd

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As defenses use pre-snap keys to identify a run or pass, seeing Fournette behind Newton under center would almost certainly give the hint of a run. Forcing Newton to pass more from under center would be a major shift in how he’s played this far in his career and it should stand that his comfort level in the offense is more important than a running back’s.

 

[Saca312]

Just now, Panthers8969 said:

I am a fournette fanboy(his understudy Guise is also really good too),so i may be a bit biased. However, I believe he was playing through an injured ankle. As that author touched on, his missed tackles numbers decreased severely from 2015-16. What 5 of that was bc of formation or stacking the box or a bad ankle is tough to say, but id rather risk a pick on him at 8 that has an insanely high ceiling 

Well, I just came across a daunting fact that less than 10% of Newton's snaps are from under center, so I'm very concerned that Fournette just doesn't fit at all for us if we want to maximize Newton's strengths.

[Panthers8969]

Just now, Saca312 said:

Well, I just came across a daunting fact that less than 10% of Newton's snaps are from under center, so I'm very concerned that Fournette just doesn't fit at all for us if we want to maximize Newton's strengths.

Yeah thats a great point, but I unfortunately have a little faith in shula to change up the offense back to the traditional ground and pound run game. Rivera said they need to change it up and that seems like the most logical way. Do you (or anyone else) have stats on when cam is more effective? Like how manning had to run plays from the shotgun his last year in denver, is cam marginally better under center or from the gun? Would be interesting to see.

 

good thread btw i enjoy these analyses 

[Saca312]

2 minutes ago, Panthers8969 said:

Yeah thats a great point, but I unfortunately have a little faith in shula to change up the offense back to the traditional ground and pound run game. Rivera said they need to change it up and that seems like the most logical way. Do you (or anyone else) have stats on when cam is more effective? Like how manning had to run plays from the shotgun his last year in denver, is cam marginally better under center or from the gun? Would be interesting to see.

 

good thread btw i enjoy these analyses 

Wish I had the stats, but I can give you a Panther analysts word when I asked that same question:

What he thinks would help Cam out is adding speed to the edges and a reliable slot receiver. He believes Fournette would hinder Cam and our offense in its entirety, and it makes sense. You have to play to your prior MVP QB's strengths to be successful, not a rookie runningback.

So, I believe we saw what we're capable of in 2011 with our 2 TE sets and double threat run game. I believe we'll look for a RB that's real good out of the shotgun and still able to play with power, and look for solid speedsters throughout the draft that are solid deep threats.

[Nails]

I appreciate your time and effort but I'm utterly amazed at the time and effort these posts must take.  Who knows, maybe Fournette really DOES go to the Jaguars and my #1 Barnett is the pick after all.  

Fournette is still a freak.

[Panthers8969]

2 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Wish I had the stats, but I can give you a Panther analysts word when I asked that same question:

What he thinks would help Cam out is adding speed to the edges and a reliable slot receiver. He believes Fournette would hinder Cam and our offense in its entirety, and it makes sense. You have to play to your prior MVP QB's strengths to be successful, not a rookie runningback.

So, I believe we saw what we're capable of in 2011 with our 2 TE sets and double threat run game. I believe we'll look for a RB that's real good out of the shotgun and still able to play with power, and look for solid speedsters throughout the draft that are solid deep threats.

hmm interesting. Assuming he is better from the gun, I agree we need to play to that strength instead of trying to change the O for fournette. And while i do believe LF can improve his running from the gun, it probably will take a couple of years. Id be fine with keeping j stew in this scenario, he is injury proud but fits the current offense well. Wish we used him in the passing game more. If we did draft a rb though, who would u want? Cook (don't want him and character concerns so idk if the team does) or mcaffrey or some later on?

[Saca312]

8 minutes ago, Panthers8969 said:

hmm interesting. Assuming he is better from the gun, I agree we need to play to that strength instead of trying to change the O for fournette. And while i do believe LF can improve his running from the gun, it probably will take a couple of years. Id be fine with keeping j stew in this scenario, he is injury proud but fits the current offense well. Wish we used him in the passing game more. If we did draft a rb though, who would u want? Cook (don't want him and character concerns so idk if the team does) or mcaffrey or some later on?

McCaffery later is intruiging, but I'd rather draft a runningback prospect later in the draft. Feel we can get better value at #8 than a runningback.

And, to further emphasize Cam's inability to play under center:

Oh, and to do you better:

Now, these are play-action dropbacks from under center, which is where he sort of busts in. He needs the space in order to do well.

I cannot stress enough how uncomfortable he looks and how many times he throws off his backfoot in these situations. 

Even then notice how erratic his mechanics are at times. You can tell he's clearly uncomfortable in these positions.

[JawnyBlaze]

I'm not trying to discredit that guy's work, it may very well be legit. But any time I see all these fabricated stats like "yards created per attempt" or espn's qbr and whathaveyou I have difficulty taking them seriously.  

All I know is that I've watched many of Fournette's game and I think he'd be a good fit.  The "Cam only passes 9.372648246465382764% of the time under center" doesn't scare me, we're already in that situation.  When cam lines up under center, the opposing team already knows we're probably running (damn you Shula!!!!).  I think it'd be much easier for Fournette to learn to operate in a shotgun or pistol or whatever formation than if we were to get one of these other inferior backs and expect them to learn to just be a lot better.  

And honestly, the only back that even comes close to Fournette in this class is Cook but I don't think he fits us like Fournette does because I think he'd need a better OL to thrive than we currently have. And there's the whole arrests problem that make it a moot point anyway.  

The drop off is huge from those two to guys like Perine (not a fan at all) and Kamara (meh) and a few others I actually do like such as Foreman (wear and tear plus risk is higher with him) and Hunt (do like, lower ceiling than Fournette though) and mccaffrey (gimmick, not a work horse).  Those last three I'd like in the late second or third if we don't get Fournette. 

[panther4life]

@Saca312 Thanks for posting. That Billy guy has a very good YouTube channel. Great resource for panther fans.