The Panthers biggest dilemmas at #8 - A good team, a deep draft, and uncertainty in the top seven picks... Or "The case for trading down"

[Bronn]

Much has been made about the Panthers and the #8 overall pick. We're still over a month away from the draft, and most of today's mainstream NFL discussion is about who's going where, and who's mocking who to our team.

Our biggest obstacle, right now, is that we're a relatively good team on paper, and are one year removed from one of the best seasons ever seen in the league. We've done a good job bringing in guys for our most immediate needs via free agency, and we're setting ourselves up to have no glaring weaknesses heading into the draft in April. But, as I move more into the discussion of the draft, I think we've got our share of hurdles that might make it very interesting to watch when the clock starts ticking. Picking #8 comes with its share of headaches this year.

First off, it looks rather unpredictable how picks 1-7 are going to shape up. The general feeling I get right now is that there are going to be some moves made, either before or during the draft, that shake things up a bit. It could be a very entertaining first round. This makes it incredibly hard to forecast who is going to be left on the board when the dust settles. A couple teams at the top of the draft are prime candidates to draft a QB, but none of the QBs this year are really top 10 talent, in my opinion. Do the teams that want those QBs just take them early? Do they trade down, allowing someone that's targeting another player to move up? It is all so hard to predict that the only thing I feel comfortable saying with certainty is that, right now, the Panthers will be on the clock after pick #7 comes in.

Draft picks, especially top 10 draft picks, need to be home runs. Many of the players mocked to us at #8 are guys that I think will be home runs. The problem is, though, that the consensus top guys for us are a RB and a SS. Both those positions are incredibly deep and talented in this draft, and are positions that the Panthers aren't necessarily hurting for right now. One could argue that those two players, Fournette and Adams, are not only the only top 10 worthy candidates at those positions in the draft, but the only first round graded versions of those players. The talent drop off behind them at their positions is pretty steep, but there is loads of talent out there at those positions after those guys. I feel like both Fournette and Adams are special players who possess talent that only comes along once a decade or a half decade. If either make it to #8, I think they will be the pick. If both make it to #8, it is going to be hard to choose. The consolation, however, is that for both Fournette or Adams, there are players at both positions very deep into the draft, after the first round, that will be very good players in the NFL. Miss out on Fournette? Take Perine or Brian Hill later. Miss out on Adams? Obi and Budda say "hi."

There are also guys in this draft that nobody can really seem to come to a consensus on as to how soon they should be drafted. Jabrill Peppers, OJ Howard, Christian McCaffrey, and even guys like Reuben Foster are currently cogs in everyone's gears. All have remarkable traits and athleticism, but nobody knows how soon a team that needs, or doesn't really need a guy at those positions would take one of them. I've seen OJ Howard, for instance, mocked from a top 5 pick all the way to the end of the first round. I've seen Jabrill Peppers recently falling into the second round. How do you even try to figure out some of these guys, other than knowing that they will immediately upgrade your team?

This brings me to my next point. Defensive linemen. This draft is pretty deep along the defensive line, too, but the defensive end crop has one freak of nature, one other sure-to-be guaranteed starter day one, and then a handful of guys that have strengths and weaknesses that will spot start early and need some work to develop. The problem is that, once those guys develop, they are probably going to be pretty doggone good too. On the defensive tackle front, there aren't really many stud nose tackles in this draft, but there are some good DTs there that have traits that will allow them to rotate positions during the course of the game. The top DT prospect, for instance, is also probably a top 5 DE prospect, and there are a slew of other guys out there that have similar skill sets. If I had to list a top 10 of this year's draft as far as overall talent goes, probably 6-7 of the guys on that list would be DL.

There's also some very good CBs in this draft, and a few of those could very well be considered top 10 talent by some teams. But much like the talented guys on the defensive front, one could argue that the Panthers don't really need a CB that bad, after spending three picks last draft trying to shore up the position.

Because of the talent at so many positions, I could see teams moving all over to get the exact guys they want. From QBs to unique guys like Peppers. I wouldn't even be surprised, at this point, if Garrett slid somehow (because of QBs) and a team traded up to get him. It is going to be chaos.

At pick #8, the Panthers are in prime position to get a player that will help them immediately if they stay put. In my opinion, however, we could very well also be in the position that there are several guys we want and that fit that criteria still on the board. I think this leads me to the conclusion that our best option, at that point, would be to trade down and gain more ammo to move back into the first round later. We would be gambling that at least one of the guys we would have taken at #8 would still be on the board wherever we slide down to, while also hoping to get another first round talent guy we like. As others here and elsewhere have pointed out, we already picked up a bargaining chip by adding NE's second rounder. In the process we lost our own third rounder, and currently have a pretty big gap between our second and third round picks. In a deep draft, the more picks you can have in the middle, the better.

Ultimately, wouldn't you all think it was a big win if we came out of this draft with Leonard Fournette AND Ryan Ramczyk? Jamal Adams AND Corey Davis? It is greedy thinking that we could come out with two picks that people are currently salivating over in the first round, but there could be a touch of realism in the belief and it might be possible to do.

TLDR: Panthers should trade down because, right now, the draft looks pretty chaotic and unpredictable. No mocked pick is a guarantee, and there is a load of talent in this draft. Also, in the positions of need in which most people mock the Panthers' picks, there's a ton of talent way later than pick #8. We should trade down a bit, and pick up extra ammo to allow us to have two first round picks instead of one.

[Scrumtrilescent]

The TLDR is TL; DR.  

[panther4life]

10 minutes ago, Scrumtrilescent said:

The TLDR is TL; DR.  

+1 @Bronn just edit that part out. Not needed, very good post. Too early to speak in absolutes on trading down or staying put would be the only thing I disagree with.

[Hoenheim]

That's a pretty long post but I agree, if Fournette, Adams, Hooker, and Solomon Thomas are all off the board at 8 the Panthers are best served to trade down to the mid first with a team like the Browns, Eagles, Colts. That's IF they can trade down.

I have a feeling either Ross, Corey Davis, or OJ Howard is going to be sitting there in the mid first . We trade down and pick up one or two extra picks in the 2nd or 3rd, then use our 2nds to trade into the late first to grab a player like McCaffrey or Cook. 

I think this is the perfect year to go offense in round one. We can load up on defensive depth and role players in the later rounds.

[TheSpecialJuan]

nice write up.

[Carolina Cajun]

Great write up.  As you pie'd the other day, me and you are right in the same mindset going into the draft.  I know there's a lot of speculation as to Gettleman trading down because it hasn't happened before, BUT, the biggest reason why I think he's gonna sell out to get into the first round twice is getting 2 big time prospects with 5th year options.  That is the biggest selling point IMO of why Gettleman will do that this year.

[AU-panther]

A lot of people around here are acting like we are picking 3rd, not eighth.  When you suggest certain guys they say that person isn't worth the 8th pick but they can't actually name 8 guys that are.

in my opinion if  there are three or four guys at the top of your board and if they fall to you you consider yourself lucky.  If not you entertain the idea of trading down.

 

 

 

 

[Hoenheim]

Just now, AU-panther said:

A lot of people around here are acting like we are picking 3rd, not eighth.  When you suggest certain guys they say that person isn't worth the 8th pick but they can't actually name 8 guys that are.

in my opinion if  there are three or four guys at the top of your board and if they fall to you you consider yourself lucky.  If not you entertain the idea of trading down.

 

 

 

 

exactly. 

[CarolinaSamurai]

Gettleman has been very reliable in this area. Is a player on your board available? Is that person the highest graded player available by you, your scouts, and your coaches? Yes? Send the card. Done. 

[ncsu12engr]

There are definitely scenarios where I think trading down would make sense, but not if Fournette and/or Adams are available. If the first 7 are Garrett, Adams, Allen, Fournette, Hooker, Thomas, and Lattimore that would be a scenario in which I would think Gettleman would try and trade down.

[Cyberjag]

Trading down won't happen until the day of the draft.  If no QBs get taken in the top 7 and all the players we love are gone, I can see Gettleman field offers.  But I wouldn't count on it.

[panther4life]

This post kind of coincide's with one I was researching and planning on making myself. 

I went back and looked at the top 10 picks from 07-13. I stopped at 13, because I wanted at least 4 years to judge a draft pick.

What I found most alarming is how much tougher it is to nail a pick inside the top 10 than one would think. 

In that time frame here is every position picked inside the top 10

• OT
• QB
• DT
• DE
• WR
• RB
• 3-4 OLB
• CB
• SS
• OG
• MLB

Of those positions I would say DE,WR,RB,CB,SS are all in play for us.

This is every player at those positions taken inside the top 10. I bolded the ones that were 8th or later

DE'S  drafted top from 07-13

• Chris Long- 2nd overall
• Vernon Gholston 6th overall
• Derrick Harvey 8th overall
• Tyon Jackson 3rd overall
• Gaines Adams 4th overall
• Jamaal Anderson 8th overall
• Dion Jordan 3rd overall 
• Ziggy Ansah 5th overall

WR's in that time frame were

• Tedd Ginn 9th overall
• Darrius Heyward-Bey 7th overall
• Michael Crabtree 10th overall
• A.J Green 4th overall
• Julio Jones 6th overall
• Justin Blackmon 5th overall
• Tavon Austin 8th overall

CBs in that time frame

• Joe Haden 7th overall
• Patrick Peterson 5th overall
• Morris Clairborne 6th overall
• Stephen Gilmore 10th overall
• Dee Milliner 9th overall

RB's in same time frame

• Adrian Peterson 7th overall 
• Darren Mcfadden 4th overall
• C.J. Spiller 9th overall

SAFTIES 

• Laron Landry 6th overall
• Eric Berry 5th overall
• Mark Barron 7th overall

To me, this does not narrow it down to any specific position being a safer bet for us. To me if a good offer comes in at 8 and Adams,Fournette and maybe Corey Davis are off the board, I think we should take the extra picks.

[Bronn]

2 minutes ago, CarolinaSamurai said:

Gettleman has been very reliable in this area. Is a player on your board available? Is that person the highest graded player available by you, your scouts, and your coaches? Yes? Send the card. Done. 

I think the grey area comes in, though, when you consider BPA like we say we do, and like we're likely to find ourselves in the position of when #8 gets here.

I don't know how it works 100%, but one would have to assume that our big board is just a composite of all of the insight you listed. But what do you do when there is a disagreement?

#8 could get there and Fournette is the highest ranked player on our board that is available. But, guys like OJ Howard could still be there too and be graded higher as a player, but ranked lower on the board. Do just suck it up and pick Fournette or do you trade back with Cleveland, 4 spots, and hope one of the two is still there? What if you trade back to #12 with them and Fournette and Howard both come off before #12? Do you then slide back again, maybe with Washington or Baltimore, and hope you end up with one of the DEs or Williams or Davis at WR, with plans to trade into the late first to get someone like McCaffrey, one of the OL, or someone else that has slid?

[TheSpecialJuan]

22 minutes ago, Carolina Cajun said:

Great write up.  As you pie'd the other day, me and you are right in the same mindset going into the draft.  I know there's a lot of speculation as to Gettleman trading down because it hasn't happened before, BUT, the biggest reason why I think he's gonna sell out to get into the first round twice is getting 2 big time prospects with 5th year options.  That is the biggest selling point IMO of why Gettleman will do that this year.

I agree completely. Gettleman is hoping for a long term answer at DE at #8 and a playmaking offensive weapon late in the 1st.