Why I Have Fallen Out of Love with Fournette at 8...

[Kevin Greene]

I don't want Fournette at 8.

But if we do select him the only good news is we're past the pre rookie cap era. When Marty Hurney selected a second running back with our first round pick in a 3 year period he should have been fired on the spot. 

Running back is a position that shouldn't demand a large portion of your cap percentage. 

Lots of talent available later in this draft at the RB position, hopefully Gettleman addresses RB after the first round in April.

 

[Toomers]

11 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

That is a very good point - you certainly wouldnt expect to cut a first round pick in the first 2-3 years of a rookie deal.  If I could amend my prior statement a bit:

I guess - in my mind - the point is more about the value the market assigns to RBs (in the form of guaranteed money on FA deals) than the actual cap implications of LF's potential contract at pick #8 in a vacuum.

Positions that are less in demand - safety, RB, ILB - get fewer guarantees than QBs, CBs, DEs, OTs in free agency but they the exact same level of guarantees in the draft, as contracts are determined by slot.

So for example:

Draft Fornette, sign OT Kalil is going to cause you to give out more guarantees (and therefore decrease future roster flexibility) than drafting an OT at #8 and signing Adrian Peterson.

It's worth nothing that drafting a TE at #8 would probably encounter the same dynamic.  Some analysts recommend only drafting premium positions in the top 10 for that reason - QB, OT, WR, DE, and CB.  I don't agree with that in all cases (Kuechly, for example) but I do think it is directionally correct.

Unfortunately for me, my favorite prospects in this year's draft are two safeties, a TE, and a DE that won't make it to 8.

Believe me, I'm usually against any 1st round RB. Even when we had picks late. But this guy is different. I've watched him for 3 years and just want to see him play a game where the entire defense isn't keying on him on every play. There has not been many humans that can run 23 mph at 230+. 

   I have many of the same opinions and concerns you have posted. I just think he's gonna be special.

[MHS831]

23 hours ago, Proudiddy said:

I figured I would post my thoughts on this and gauge the temp of the board on it.  During the combine, in most discussions I saw here, most people were worried about whether Fournette would even make it to #8.  While I admit, the prospect of infusing our backfield with a bruising, battering ram of a back to carry the load and ease some of the burden off of Cam is an immensely exciting scenario, I am now starting to question if this is the best move we can make.

Thinking more and more about VALUE over the last few days, and whether value lines up with where a specific player is being picked, as well as all the buzztalk about our offense looking to "evolve" going forward - it hit me...  If we are looking to evolve, to diversify our offense and add new wrinkles and layers to it, is Fournette at 8 the right move?  I'm starting to think the answer is no.

I go back to value...  when you think about a guy like McCaffrey, who fills multiple needs, who can play RB, WR, and return kicks, who is being projected in the late first to early second - THAT is unbeatable value.  That value is especially magnified when compared to a guy like Fournette who is the most one-dimensional back out of all the guys being projected in the first to early second round.

Fournette does one thing, and he does it really well.  And despite our history under Shula of having a "vertical" dimension to our offense, for the most part, we are a power run team.  And yes, Fournette fits that scheme perfectly...  IF, that is what we are continuing on as, but if we truly plan on evolving this season, then I think the best plan is to trade back, pick up more value/assets, and pick a guy like Ross and/or McCaffrey.  If we do so, I believe that will be the true indicator of whether or not the offense evolves this year, or plans to continue to do the same things it has...  and knowing Rivera's history, I suspect there won't be much in the way of evolution in philosophy or scheme this season.  It just sounds good to say following a 6-10 season and entering what many believe is a make or break year for the entire staff.

Regardless, whatever route we go, we are going to get a talent that will certainly provide some spark to an offense that stagnated last season, but which route is the most optimal - for now, for the future, for our organization, and for Cam?

A big, bruising back to handle the heavy lifting and carry the bulk of the workload that in turn likely opens up things in play action and the passing game?

Or a multi-dimensional talent that can line up at multiple spots on the field and create matchup nightmares for defenses (and when it comes to McCaffrey, someone who can also carry some of that workload in the run game)?

 

Same page

[MHS831]

11 hours ago, Kevin Greene said:

I don't want Fournette at 8.

But if we do select him the only good news is we're past the pre rookie cap era. When Marty Hurney selected a second running back with our first round pick in a 3 year period he should have been fired on the spot. 

Running back is a position that shouldn't demand a large portion of your cap percentage. 

Lots of talent available later in this draft at the RB position, hopefully Gettleman addresses RB after the first round in April.

 

Excellent points.  Please allow me to add these thoughts--

If you are going to bring the cap into the picture (and you should) you have to look at the average salary of the position.  If I can bring in a Solomon Thomas, for example, and pay him the same as I would a RB drafted at #8  for 4 years, then is it smart to draft a RB when DEs are so much more expensive? In addition, you can find a solid RB later in the draft,, but not many solid DEs are lurking around the third round or after.  So, are we better off with Fournette and a developmental DE than we are with a Solomon Thomas or Taco Charlton and maybe a RB in the third round from a very deep RB crop?

If I may help the Fournette fans, you could argue that a DE takes a year or two to develop when a RB plays right away.  Good point.

This is just me but sit back because it is rather profound--"I would never pay an NFL RB a second contract (very few exceptions) because they rarely play up to level of their contracts."  Research shows they peak at age 27 and start dropping off at a rather substantial rate.  (See RB Cliff).  So, after the fifth year option, would we pay a 1200-yard rusher a huge deal?  You are almost obligated.  Rarely do they pay off.

Good stuff though.  If we draft Fournette, I would be happy, fwiw.  But if we draft a top DE, I will be elated.

[TheMaulClaw]

On 3/15/2017 at 10:15 AM, Proudiddy said:

I go back to value...  when you think about a guy like McCaffrey, who fills multiple needs, who can play RB, WR, and return kicks, who is being projected in the late first to early second - THAT is unbeatable value.  That value is especially magnified when compared to a guy like Fournette who is the most one-dimensional back out of all the guys being projected in the first to early second round.

Fournette does one thing, and he does it really well.  And despite our history under Shula of having a "vertical" dimension to our offense, for the most part, we are a power run team.  And yes, Fournette fits that scheme perfectly...  IF, that is what we are continuing on as, but if we truly plan on evolving this season, then I think the best plan is to trade back, pick up more value/assets, and pick a guy like Ross and/or McCaffrey.  If we do so, I believe that will be the true indicator of whether or not the offense evolves this year, or plans to continue to do the same things it has...  and knowing Rivera's history, I suspect there won't be much in the way of evolution in philosophy or scheme this season.  It just sounds good to say following a 6-10 season and entering what many believe is a make or break year for the entire staff.

 

   McCaffrey would be a great pick if we already had a three down RB already in place IMO. I know McCaffrey is technically an RB, but it seems like he would be limited in 3rd and short situations. I would love it if we could double down and trade back into the first round and grab both.  McCaffrey can certainly add positive complexity into an offense, but if it's one or the other at 8 I'm going with Fournette.  Nothing can take the pressure off of Cam like a good Oline and a workhorse at RB.  If Cam hits his hand on a helmet during his release, you have a guy that can limit his exposure in the upcoming plays in a guy like Fournette. It's exciting to think of a Fournette and Stewart(if healthy) combination. We could really close some games out in the fourth.

 

[Craig Pruitt]

On ‎03‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 10:38 AM, Proudiddy said:

 

I've read articles saying Howard could be an unparalleled talent and i know the measurables and resume are there, so if we took him, I wouldn't be upset.  I'd have some questions though...  I think Olsen has plenty left in the tank, and elite level TEs can usually play at a high level through their late 30s.  

Quote

So, although i think we could really cause some problems for opponents with 2 TE sets with Olsen and Howard, I question our staff's ability to effectively use both guys in such a manner.

As to your scenario of taking Howard at 8 and McCaffrey in the late first after trading back up, that would be AMAZING.

I'm glad that someone feels about the Howard  pick the way I do. Why spend a pick on a TE in the 1st round in the top 10 when you know he won't be the top guy at his spot for the next 2-3 years?  A stud at RB, S, or even DL would produce a much bigger and more immediate impact. Plus, you'd have the 5th year option to keep the around longer.

If you could guarantee me that Howard and Olsen would be as effective as Hernandez and Gronk were up in NE at the start of the decade then maybe. But, I have no faith the current offensive staff would effectively use them both.

IF I knew a team coveted Howard I'd consider using him as bait to switch spots in the draft and get more draft choices. No way I'd pick him at 8.

[Woodie]

On ‎3‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 10:48 AM, LinvilleGorge said:

I think people get too caught up in the thought of "value" in the draft. If you end up with a great player, then you got great value. Maybe it wasn't perceived as great value on draft day, but draft day can't really be judged until several years down the road.

I'd take Fournette with zero hesitation at #8.

Not to mention that fans' perception of value is based on mock drafts and player rankings created by the media and other self proclaimed experts, not teams or actual NFL evaluators. 

[Woodie]

I think we're seeing a bit of the anti-hype train that sometimes turns against a player that gets a lot of hype.  I get those that say they are against Fournette because they are against taking a RB that high on principle.  Don't necessarily agree with it, but I do understand it.  But some are looking too hard for flaws in Fournette's game.  Some might have resigned themselves to the fact he won't be there at #8 and are trying to reduce their disappointment, but anyone that really thinks he is not as good as the hype are seriously misjudging his ability.   

It sound like some have convinced themselves that he is just another good power runner.  Go look at his videos, he is a devastating power runner that is able to run away from defensive backs.  No, he's not about wiggle and shaking defenders, but he can make you miss.  He has very good vision and patience, does a great job of setting up his blocks and finding ways to get himself to the second level...where he destroys defenders.  He's also a good blocker who can pick up the blitz (a Gettleman must), and is far underrated as a pass catcher on this board.  And despite a poor high jump, he is very explosive and has good burst.  With his skillset, he actually fits our offense perfectly.  Running out of the shotgun should not be that big a deal to him.     

[panthers55]

On 3/15/2017 at 5:34 PM, rico6 said:

I was on the Fournette train originally, but OJ is going to be a friggin' beast. If we're hanging on to Shula for the foreseeable future, it's time Gettleman got him some better passing weapons. Im not entirely sold on dedicating the draft to a RB running behind an offensive line with an unproven Kalil and Williams. 

I agree that RB at 8 might be a mistake unless they truly are the next AP. I don't think any running back in the draft is close to an AP. The reason I like McCaffrey is his receiving and return ability more than his running back skills unless we are talking about catching balls in the flat or on a swing pass or screen. He is the bigger and better version of Wes Welker who will be deadly in the slot and quicker than all but the fastest defenders. If you look at pure speed he would outrun any of our linemen, linebackers and safeties.  If he will possibly be gone at 11 he isn't a reach at 8. But if not him then OJ is the offensive pick for me and one that fits what Gettleman looks for. An athletic big guy who has a high ceiling and is a physical mismatch.  He isn't a finesse guy but someone who has the will to be a good blocker along with the speed and skill to be a good receiver. 

I think our first rounder needs to be an impact player in the passing game. We need a safety and DE and RB. If we look for an athletic freak on the defensive side look no further than Jabrill Peppers who can play offense or defense. He might be the most athletic versatile player in the draft.

[Ivan The Awesome]

On 3/15/2017 at 7:22 AM, nctarheel0619 said:

Fair question.  I think trading back is pretty stupid.  But, whatever.  

I normally would agree. This draft class is extremely deep at several positions of need that giving up Fournette for McCaffery,  Howard,  Melinfowu,  Charlton,  Jackson, Allen,  etc, would make the team more strong than Fournette at 8. 

 

If the team trades back. This is definitely the year to do it.

[Hoenheim]

A trade back with the Browns would be huge. You only drop 4 picks (from 8 to 12) and you pick up another high 2nd rounder. If any modicum of talent drops to the 2nd round we have two picks in the top 10 of the 2nd, and likely Gman would use both those to move into the later first (some pick in the 20-s) to pick another 1st round talent.