Why I Have Fallen Out of Love with Fournette at 8...

[Snake]

4 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

Yeah, the game has changed, but i go back to personnel...  I believ there was a thread here not too long ago when McDermott was explaining how the majority of defenive snaps are now played out of nickel.  So, if I was a coach, I would want to explore the idea of using a heavy set to counter it regularly to get a defense out of the nickel.  It would take an AP-type of back and capable blockers.  Once you force a defense to adjust, you can then add extra wrinkles, like then passing out of that same heavy formation, but again, it would take the right personnel.  If that works with consistency, just like with the pass-heavy offenses and nickel defenses, other teams will try it of they can find the personnel to implement it.

Could it work yes but even in the nickel teams have shown they can defend the run really well. Backs now of days needs to gain 4 ypc and be able to catch 5 to 10 passes a game with good defenses. Long gone are the Eddie George and Steven Davis ground and pound days. The NFL took care of that with how the refs call the game. 

[Snake]

4 minutes ago, PantherWake said:

People just here " Fournette is the best RB prospect in years" and don't even think about how he would fit in this team. He's not a good shotgun runner and we run our offense 70% of the time in shotgun plus thats Cam's strength.

Perine from Oklahoma would be a much better fit and wouldnt cost us a 1st or 2nd rounder when we have bigger needs at DE, WR, and S.

People can't seems to get this through there skulls. If you hear some you would think John Fox was still coach.

[Manos]

Not that I think Fournette is lazy but I am worried about his weight. If he already has ankle issues putting more stress on it by adding weight seems like a bad idea. If he could get down to around 225 I think he would be a better prospect long term.

Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[rico6]

I was on the Fournette train originally, but OJ is going to be a friggin' beast. If we're hanging on to Shula for the foreseeable future, it's time Gettleman got him some better passing weapons. Im not entirely sold on dedicating the draft to a RB running behind an offensive line with an unproven Kalil and Williams. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

I know  a lot of people are  in love with LF at 8 but I really don't want to see a RB that early. Our O-line is a huge question mark atm. We were decimated by injuries last year, and we have no idea how well these guys are going to perform coming back. I know they get the best in medical and rehab etc., but there are no guarantees. Add in we are banking on M. Kalil and Oher/Williams on the edges and it doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling that bringing in a rookie RB means we're automatically going to start dropping 100 plus yards on the ground every game, and start rolling over defenses. 

AP looked like crap before his injury this year because his line couldn't block for squat, and Dallas made McFadden look like he was in college again as a backup. I know it takes talent as well, but if your line can't block, you aren't going anywhere. Add in that we're probably looking at only a 7 year career because of the wall most RBs hit at 30. Also, if he performs as high as everyone expects, we are going to be looking at giving him his massive contract at late 27/28, and I don't see us paying that kind of cash for a guy that likely, according to statistics, has a couple years left before the wheels fall off. Tops, I see him as a guy that's here 5 years. 

I prefer Adams, if he's available, because I think we really need a consistent force at safety, and his career baring major injury should be longer. Also, when his contract renewal comes around after the 5th year option, he could still perform at an elite level for the duration of a long term contract. 

This is all just my armchair GM opinion, but I think if you're going to spend a high first on someone, you have to look at someone who can perform at an elite level and be with the team long term. OJ Howard, Barnett, Allen, Thomas, Hooker (though his injury does put a little doubt for such a high pick) are all guys that could have 10+ year careers. Just my opinion, but that has to be a major consideration with a top 10 pick. 

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, PantherWake said:

People just hear "Fournette is the best RB prospect in years" and don't even think about how he would fit in this team. He's not a good shotgun runner and we run our offense 70% of the time in shotgun plus thats Cam's strength.

Perine from Oklahoma would be a much better fit and wouldnt cost us a 1st or 2nd rounder when we have bigger needs at DE, WR, and S.

I think that's a valid concern, but Rivera intimated that there is going to be a more traditional, under center approach going forward. 

I don't get the Perine thing. You talking about a one dimensional downhill runner, then he is it.  Jamaal Williams is the better long term prospect as far as I'm concerned. He is faster, has softer hands and a little more shake and bake to his game, along with power. He is also a better blocker. I'm picking him over Perine every day and Sundays for my tailback. Now maybe for FB, Perine may be an answer.

[PantherWake]

1 hour ago, top dawg said:

I think that's a valid concern, but Rivera intimated that there is going to be a more traditional, under center approach going forward. 

I don't get the Perine thing. You talking about a one dimensional downhill runner, then he is it.  Jamaal Williams is the better long term prospect as far as I'm concerned. He is faster, has softer hands and a little more shake and bake to his game, along with power. He is also a better blocker. I'm picking him over Perine every day and Sundays for my tailback. Now maybe for FB, Perine may be an answer.

Yeah I was just using Perine as an example. 

[ShutDwn]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

First, Henry was more of a workout warrior than a RB. I didn't like him that much, just ran through huge holes. Watching the NC he either got a huge run due to the OL or got tackled easy by a DB. For as big as he is, his power never impressed me. Fournette is just plain a better RB, that's why he's mocked much higher.

Second, I agree on Fournette's combine. Yeah he ran faster than 240+ RBs but no one thought he was coming in that big and we'd heard better whispers. His vertical was terrible and I wasn't impressed in the receiving drills.

I'm not sold on him at 8, but as a RB, he's way better than Henry.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

I mean that's where Henry's height likely hurts him. I don't disagree with you but their weaknesses are basically the same, which are pretty bad fits in Carolina and as a top pick.

Here are the two write ups from NFL.com about their weaknesses, once you remove the indentifiers you could interchange them and it still says the same thing..

Player 1:

Quote

Doesn't make many defenders miss with open field shake. Aggressive, take-on style could lead to shortened career. Struggles to elude sudden traffic at line of scrimmage. Lacks looseness of hips to jump-cut from gap to gap. Struggled with a bad ankle for most of the season. Plays through a straw. Excitable runner in need of more patience. Too quick to hit the accelerator and slam into defenders when there are still cuts and yards left in the play. Runs to obvious daylight but needs to learn to anticipate and finesse the crease in traffic. Doesn't see cutback lanes developing as outside zone runner and prefers to keep runs play-side. Throws half-hearted, grazing shoulder as chip blocker. Pass protection and routes need extensive work.

Player 2

Quote

Average foot quickness can lead to tackles for losses if he gets too cute in the backfield. Needs to improve his second read as a zone runner. Ineffective in passing game with below average hands. Narrow based running style allows defenders to trip him up. Sluggish cut­back ability once he's outside the tackle box.

 

Basically both these guys aren't great at dealing with traffic in the backfield. Stewart is exceptional at exactly that but he dealt with it constantly and still couldn't get going.

Great power runners who have longevity aren't running full steam into one hole, they are able to stop and make plays flat footed bounce from one hole to another. Marshawn Lynch talks about smashing faces but he was an insanely agile and nimble RB.

I just really hope we don't spend a top 10 pick on a position that depends on 5 others.

 

[MBronson]

I think we could even take Cook if Fournette is there. Reguardless of his off the field issues. I just dont see us taking McCaffrey at #8 over all. But, if we package our two 2nd round picks for a later 1st round pick; I could see us drafting D-Line and RB in the 1st round. Because Dave loves his Offensive/ Defensive "Hog Mollies".

[yasuhara2241]

Honestly, Fournette would be an amazing talent that would probably be underutilized. Rivera would still start Stew and Fournette would get 8 touches a game and everybody would be pissed off even more at Shula & Rivera and others would call him a bust after 6 games.

[uscgamecocks]

Getting to the value of an RB at #8 - if we draft a RB there, that player will become the second highest paid RB in terms of guaranteed $/yr in the league (Zeke is currently first).  That bothers me for a couple of reasons:

1) The player has to really hit to justify the contract.  LF has to be a top 5 back in the league or else it is an inefficient use of cap space and a high first round pick.

2) An RB taken in the first round is unlikely to be signed to a second contract.  Therefore, the expected return on that pick runs its course over a five year period.  Maybe six, with a franchise tag.  Good players at other positions can have much longer careers.

3) As others mentioned here, LF profiles as a pro-style downhill RB.  That's not what our offense did the past two seasons.  I'm all for transitioning and running Cam less - but it's not guaranteed that we would have a good run game with LF.  The OL and the offensive system would need to evolve with him.  Are we going to put Cam under center for 70% of snaps?

I'm not saying it can't or shouldn't happen - but I think drafting an RB that early is riskier than most on this board seem to think.  He can't just be good - he has to be great, or it's a bad pick.

 

Personally, I think receiving threats are this team's single biggest weakness (I'm probably alone in that view).  I think the Broncos exposed that in the Super Bowl and it was exposed throughout last season as well.  We've hopefully made some improvements along the OL, but if our receivers can't get open that line isn't going to hold up.

So I'd lean towards OJ Howard or a WR in the first if an elite defender like Hooker / Thomas doesn't fall.  I do think RB2 / RB-of-the-future is an important need but I'd hope to address that later in the draft.

I'll certainly understand if we draft LF at #8.  But if he is the pick, he cannot be a Shaq Thompson or a Vernon Butler.  At other positions - which have more longevity - you can afford to redshirt players.  Not at RB.  So do we then get rid of JStew, given his large cap hit?  Make him a backup?  Split carries 50/50?

 

What's the biggest upgrade for next year's team?

JStew > Fournette (are we sure this is an upgrade for 2017? it certainly would be beyond '17, as JStew is nearing the end)

Dickson > OJ Howard (I'd assume we are switching to 2TE base if we draft Howard)

Funchess > Corey Davis

Horton/Johnson > Solomon Thomas

I personally think Howard would have the most impact, as he would impact runs and pass plays.  Would also free up Olsen to run routes while he helps out tackles with chips.  But I really want to see us go back to a 2TE base, so that influences my thinking.

 

[Snake]

3 hours ago, top dawg said:

I think that's a valid concern, but Rivera intimated that there is going to be a more traditional, under center approach going forward. 

I don't get the Perine thing. You talking about a one dimensional downhill runner, then he is it.  Jamaal Williams is the better long term prospect as far as I'm concerned. He is faster, has softer hands and a little more shake and bake to his game, along with power. He is also a better blocker. I'm picking him over Perine every day and Sundays for my tailback. Now maybe for FB, Perine may be an answer.

Depends on your idea of a traditional approach. If your expecting to see Cam under center in the I forget it, not going to happen. If you are expecting less read option then you will be happy. 

[Toomers]

28 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

Getting to the value of an RB at #8 - if we draft a RB there, that player will become the second highest paid RB in terms of guaranteed $/yr in the league (Zeke is currently first).  That bothers me for a couple of reasons:

1) The player has to really hit to justify the contract.  LF has to be a top 5 back in the league or else it is an inefficient use of cap space and a high first round pick.

 

 

   I liked the post even as a person who really wants to draft LF. But really don't understand why you would use guaranteed money as an example. As a rookie, his entire contract is guaranteed. That's why Zeke is so high. It's not like you would ever cut him in the first 4 years, barring a tragic injury( which can happen to any player). The only part that matters is cap hits. Which would place him around 3.2M this year, the.4.0, 4.8, and 5.6 after. None of that should affect anything. JStew has a 5.5M base salary ,just this year and a 8.25M cap hit. 

  Draft Fournette, restructure Stewart, and you will actually be saving money with the addition of Fournette. And have them both.   

[uscgamecocks]

17 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   I liked the post even as a person who really wants to draft LF. But really don't understand why you would use guaranteed money as an example. As a rookie, his entire contract is guaranteed. That's why Zeke is so high. It's not like you would ever cut him in the first 4 years, barring a tragic injury( which can happen to any player). The only part that matters is cap hits. Which would place him around 3.2M this year, the.4.0, 4.8, and 5.6 after. None of that should affect anything. JStew has a 5.5M base salary ,just this year and a 8.25M cap hit. 

  Draft Fournette, restructure Stewart, and you will actually be saving money with the addition of Fournette. And have them both.   

That is a very good point - you certainly wouldnt expect to cut a first round pick in the first 2-3 years of a rookie deal.  If I could amend my prior statement a bit:

I guess - in my mind - the point is more about the value the market assigns to RBs (in the form of guaranteed money on FA deals) than the actual cap implications of LF's potential contract at pick #8 in a vacuum.

Positions that are less in demand - safety, RB, ILB - get fewer guarantees than QBs, CBs, DEs, OTs in free agency but they get the exact same level of guarantees in the draft, as contracts are determined by slot.

So for example:

Draft Fornette, sign OT Kalil is going to cause you to give out more guarantees (and therefore decrease future roster flexibility) than drafting an OT at #8 and signing Adrian Peterson.

It's worth nothing that drafting a TE at #8 would probably encounter the same dynamic.  Some analysts recommend only drafting premium positions in the top 10 for that reason - QB, OT, WR, DE, and CB.  I don't agree with that in all cases (Kuechly, for example) but I do think it is directionally correct.

Unfortunately for me, my favorite prospects in this year's draft are two safeties, a TE, and a DE that won't make it to 8.