Will Fournette fall to 8 if no QBs are taken?

[davos]

Yeah I don't think there's a chance he makes it to 8.  

The top tier has 5 guys IMO: Allen, Garrett, Thomas, Fournette, Adams

I just want 1 of those to fall to us! I mean, high draft team's like/covet skill players.  Also--Fournette is a talent who warrants a trade up.  

Barnett, Howard, & Hooker, Lattimore are the next in line who I think we'd go after but someone from that first 5 falls to 8... and my feeling is that Thomas winds up there for us.  

 

[GoobyPls]

1 hour ago, gorillamilitia13 said:

LOL at Jets winning now. And I highly doubt that they think Hackenberg is the future.

You people are thinking logic with the Jets LMAO, you greatly under estimate the jets ineptitude. Bowles will not put his career on a rookie. I haven't heard single inkling about them drafting a QB.

[DaveThePanther2008]

Many mock drafts have him falling to us.  No QBs taken I don't see it happening.

[Ace_Aladdin]

6 hours ago, Shocker said:

There might be some broken TVs if Fornette is there and we pass on him.  I have no idea what the Gettleman will do here but I really feel like he may go DE pass rusher.  

I disagree he will go Offense 

2013: Defense

2014: Offense

2015: Defense

2016: Defense (anomaly year, should have went with TE Hunter Henry)

2017: Offense Fournette / OJ Howard

 

[uncfan888]

So you want to say that he alternates defensive and offensive picks..  But in 4 years he's picked three defensive players. And then you claim one of those years was an anomaly.  Lol

You crush on Henry more than I do on Scarlett johannson

[t96]

11 hours ago, stbugs said:

This is called recency bias. You can't just look at this year. If Fournette is a potential all time RB, then you take him at 8. He was big news coming out of high school and compared to Peterson. He's got a chance to be a stud. How about instead of just looking at this year, look at the top 25 rushing yard leaders in the NFL. That's got more of the guys your are hoping Fournette is. In the top 25 rushing leaders in NFL history, here is the break down:

Top 13 overall picks: 18

Rest of 1st round: 2

2nd rounders: 3

3rd rounders: 2

18 of the top 25 NFL rushing leaders were picked from #1 overall to #13. One was picked #17, one #24 and then 5 others were picked after the 1st round.

Great stuff, thanks for looking that stuff up and posting. With a guy like Fournette, a HB is definitely worth a top 10 pick. You may possibly luck out and get a 2nd tier back in the 3rd day or UDFA, but if you've got a chance to get essentially what you think will become an all time great, you go for him at 8.

[t96]

8 hours ago, Shocker said:

There might be some broken TVs if Fornette is there and we pass on him.  I have no idea what the Gettleman will do here but I really feel like he may go DE pass rusher.  

I could see that but if LF is there I think DG looks at the DE depth and waits until 40 to get one. DE is very top heavy this draft and will last probably into the middle to end of the second, allowing us to get a great player later if we go LF or S at 8.

[Shocker]

1 hour ago, thomas96 said:

I could see that but if LF is there I think DG looks at the DE depth and waits until 40 to get one. DE is very top heavy this draft and will last probably into the middle to end of the second, allowing us to get a great player later if we go LF or S at 8.

Great point.  DE is maybe the deepest position this year.  OT maybe the thinnest.

[Catufb85]

1 hour ago, thomas96 said:

I could see that but if LF is there I think DG looks at the DE depth and waits until 40 to get one. DE is very top heavy this draft and will last probably into the middle to end of the second, allowing us to get a great player later if we go LF or S at 8.

yes, if LF is there and he selects a DE my TV will definitely be broken.  However, DE is probably the deepest position in the class as well as Running back.  Running back class is a very good and can get great value throughout the first 1-5 rounds.  But when a decade type running back like LF comes along you have to take him at 8 if hes on the board.  The DE class is loaded and can get what your looking forward from 2-5 rounds.  You got guys not even being mentioned anymore like Charles Harris from Missouri, Jordan Willis from Kansas State, DeMarcus Walker from FSU, Tanoh from Villanova, recent riser Hendrickson from FAU. 

Grab LF if hes there.

[AU-panther]

10 hours ago, davos said:

Yeah I don't think there's a chance he makes it to 8.  

The top tier has 5 guys IMO: Allen, Garrett, Thomas, Fournette, Adams

I just want 1 of those to fall to us! I mean, high draft team's like/covet skill players.  Also--Fournette is a talent who warrants a trade up.  

Barnett, Howard, & Hooker, Lattimore are the next in line who I think we'd go after but someone from that first 5 falls to 8... and my feeling is that Thomas winds up there for us.  

 

I would agree with that.  It is almost like one of those would be a BPA pick.  If those 5 are off of the board it will be more of a need pick.  

Of those 5 I think Fournette or Thomas has the best chance of dropping. Fournette because of positional value and Thomas because some teams might view him as a bit of a tweener.

[EightyNine]

16 hours ago, L-TownCat said:

When running is a top priority do you want to leave the position up to chance by hoping you hit on a sleeper or do you get the stud that's available (if available).

My argument is that the offensive line makes the running back, not the other way around.  That should be the priority.  That's why teams around the league aren't taking running backs in the first round, and its not because there aren't stud's available. I think teams are figuring out that you can get a stud beyond the first round.  If you look at recent first round RB's anyways, you'll see that you are taking a chance on them as well.  I just don't see any correlation between 1st round RB's and winning/rushing success.

12 hours ago, stbugs said:

This is called recency bias. You can't just look at this year. If Fournette is a potential all time RB, then you take him at 8. He was big news coming out of high school and compared to Peterson. He's got a chance to be a stud. How about instead of just looking at this year, look at the top 25 rushing yard leaders in the NFL. That's got more of the guys your are hoping Fournette is. In the top 25 rushing leaders in NFL history, here is the break down:

Top 13 overall picks: 18

Rest of 1st round: 2

2nd rounders: 3

3rd rounders: 2

18 of the top 25 NFL rushing leaders were picked from #1 overall to #13. One was picked #17, one #24 and then 5 others were picked after the 1st round.

You can call it recency bias or you can call it paying attention to how the league is evolving.  Teams just don't lean on the running game like they used to.  You need a much more balanced offense to keep up with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, etc.  I think teams are also figuring out that defenses have gotten too good for running backs to just continue to bowl over people.  Whats more important is having an offensive line that allows the running back to pick up the yards he is supposed to in order to stay balanced.  Its a supply and demand thing.  Without a good offensive line, it doesn't matter how good the running back is.  Since the supply of running backs capable of getting the job done behind a decent offensive line has gone up, you've seen the demand go way down.  Why should we pay so much for a position when the supply and demand indicates we should be able to get one at a much lower cost?

I'm not just looking at this year.  The decline in running backs taken in the first round goes back several years.  I think there is a reason for that besides a lack of talent, or GMs around the league having recency bias.  The amount of stud running backs found in later rounds also has been increasing in recent years.  Look at the leading rushers and playoff contenders the past several years.  It all starts up front.  

[t96]

1 hour ago, Catufb85 said:

yes, if LF is there and he selects a DE my TV will definitely be broken.  However, DE is probably the deepest position in the class as well as Running back.  Running back class is a very good and can get great value throughout the first 1-5 rounds.  But when a decade type running back like LF comes along you have to take him at 8 if hes on the board.  The DE class is loaded and can get what your looking forward from 2-5 rounds.  You got guys not even being mentioned anymore like Charles Harris from Missouri, Jordan Willis from Kansas State, DeMarcus Walker from FSU, Tanoh from Villanova, recent riser Hendrickson from FAU. 

Grab LF if hes there.

Agreed. Deep RB class yes but Fournette is in a tier above everyone else this year. DE only has one guy in that top tier in my opinion and that's Garrett, who isn't falling. He's the only DE I'd take over Fournette. Adams or Fournette would be a tougher decision, but one I don't think we'll have to make with Adams going earlier. And I think this is kind of line with DG's thinking, but who knows.

[t96]

1 hour ago, Shocker said:

Great point.  DE is maybe the deepest position this year.  OT maybe the thinnest.

I'm also getting a feeling now that the Jets or Jags do end up targeting Ramczyk even that early. He, in my opinion, is far and away the best OT in this weak class and although he's raw I think he's worth a top 15 pick and one of those two teams could reach a tad for him after getting rid of their LTs. If somehow he goes before us and a QB or two, we're going to get a steal at 8. And having essentially 5 teams in front of us not in play for a HB there is lucky as hell. That along with us drafting 8 and a rare talent Fournette being in this draft is really the stars aligning for us. Any other year we'd never have a shot at this type of talent at HB. It's obviously possible Fournette is taken but I think it's more likely he isn't. And on Ramczyk as well if Fournette, Adams, Hooker, Allen, etc. are all gone I would not be against Ramczyk at 8. I think he'll be a future Jordan Gross-like staple on an o-line. Would maybe be a little risky just because of his relative inexperience but I like him better than guys like Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel who were taken top 2 a couple years ago.

[FuFuLamePoo]

I don't think we'd take him if he is there


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