Is there really a higher likelihood of finding starting caliber RB in later round?

[top dawg]

Some Huddlers like to throw around the notion that you can find a decent RB in the later rounds more so than other positions. I have always thought that was a myth, and here is some admittedly general data that seems to prove it.

 

http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-talent-sources-productivity-by-round-by-position/

Now you can visit the site and judge the analysis yourself, but as for me I take it as it is a good reference, and speaks to the erroneous notion that somehow running backs are any different than most positions regarding surefire starters having the best chance to be found on day one. A few positions almost require you to get your guy in the first,  but even more give you a higher likelihood of finding talent in the later rounds.

 

[t96]

14 minutes ago, Promethean Forerunner said:

There definitely is another RB worth taking in the first round... but 8th overall? No way Jose.

It's either Fournette, or nothing. 

Fournette is a top 5 player this draft and if he's there at 8 and we get him I'd be thrilled. But no other HB is even top 15 this draft. Cook may be taken that high but it'll be a mistake and I doubt he's in play for us at 8, even if the first 7 picks are the top 7 on DG's board. A HB top 10 needs to be a game changing franchise player who you build your offense around. Fournette is the only guy who fits that bill this draft and along with Gurley is the only one in the past 5+ drafts. Elliott is good but he's high 2nd tier without Dallas' o-line. Fournette will be 1st tier even with a bad line. If we snag Fournette the offense will have be built around the run game which must be built around him, not Cam. Cam is good enough to carry an offense by himself as shown by '15 but he'd be much better if there's somebody else to take the weight off his shoulders, and that somebody is Fournette. Some defensive players I like better but will likely be gone. I'm pretty much all in for LF right now.

[Davidson Deac II]

56 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Some Huddlers like to throw around the notion that you can find a decent RB in the later rounds more so than other positions. I have always thought that was a myth, and here is some admittedly general data that seems to prove it.

 

http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-talent-sources-productivity-by-round-by-position/

Now you can visit the site and judge the analysis yourself, but as for me I take it as it is a good reference, and speaks to the erroneous notion that somehow running backs are any different than most positions regarding surefire starters having the best chance to be found on day one. A few positions almost require you to get your guy in the first,  but even more have a give you a higher likelihood of finding talent in the later rounds.

 

Probably depends on how they define starting caliber.  I imagine that a number of those backs are from the years prior to 2012, when rb's seemed to be valued more, so more of them were picked in the second round.  Also its interesting that by their definition of starting caliber, the numbers of backs picked in the 6 and 7th round, and undrafted, equal those found in the first round.  

 

Eight or nine of the top 10 running backs (in terms of yards) were not drafted in the first round.  I think Ezekiel Elliot is the only one that was.   So yes, you can certainly find starting caliber running backs in the second or later.   

[mc52beast]

Many "experts " say the draft is loaded with talented backs, not sure if that means they are day one starters or not. The Panthers need a game changer, someone who fits our system. If Fournette is there at 8 and Dave passes on him someone will have to do CPR on me 

[emhoward]

It's not about "starting quality" for me. When I'm picking in the 1st, I'm not looking for a starting caliber player I'm looking for a an all-pro/Probowl guy. 

And the fact is, a higher percentage of elite running backs were taken outside of the first COMPARED to other positions. 

And to add: There were 12 playoff teams this year, guess how many featured running backs drafted in the first round.... 1. Dallas. They're the only team. Out of 12. QB's? 6. I could have said 7, bUT I removed Tannelhill. WR's? Julio. OBJ. Crabtree/Cooper. Maclin. Dez. That's 5. All in the first, compared to 1 RB. 

And this isn't a 1 year trend. Last year only 3 first round RB's were in the playoffs. Stewart, Peterson, and Beastmode, as opposed to 6 QB's. 

I'm not saying I'm against Fournette. I'm saying he needs to.be heads and tails better than Whoever is on the board to be a good pick imo. Being marginally better at the RB position won't cut it. Especially when there's a good to great chance a RB in the later rounds will outperform him.

[motocross_cat]

You want to take pressure off cam?

GET FOURNETTE.

No more half ass 3rd round hope he works out running backs.

[vorbis]

I like Fournette a ton but 1) I don't think he's nearly as much of a top-10 lock as many think, and 2) I don't think it's guaranteed that Panthers will like him as a fit that high. his running style is not really that conducive to the read option. he's more of a downhill kind of guy (and a doozy of one at that). maybe if the Panthers were serious about dropping the read option from the offense, but that's yet to be seen. Gettleman will make certain that a RB's a good schematic fit before they pick anybody, much less a top-10 kind of player.

it's also interesting to see if the Panthers will be looking for a certain "type" of RB much like many teams do with WRs. Pumphrey, Curtis Samuel, that kind of speed back that can drop down into the slot on occasion or be a factor in the screen game (Fozzy upgrade). or a Marlon Mack / Christian McCaffrey kind of all around runner with good but not face-melting measurables (CAP replacement). probably Dalvin Cook would be the best fit in the Panthers offense as it stands right now, but he's got significant baggage and probably won't line up value-wise at any of the Panthers picks.

[GoobyPls]

Ironically that chart indicates strong safety next to kicker, punters and fullbacks is the worst position to draft in the first round, yet everyone is clamoring for one.

 

Personally I would never draft a RB in the first round, cause it's the most expandable position. But I'm so sick and tired of this regime using  first round picks on defense I more than happy to draft one.

[CRA]

57 minutes ago, motocross_cat said:

You want to take pressure off cam?

GET FOURNETTE.

No more half ass 3rd round hope he works out running backs.

An actual good OL will take pressure off him.  

[Saca312]

Just now, CRA said:

An actual good OL will take pressure off him.  

Yep. Getting healthy should get us back to the top 3 like we were in 2015. 

[pantherj]

Please no more drafting later round RBs who are short and not particularly fast. Get the real deal or don't bother. 

[top dawg]

6 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Probably depends on how they define starting caliber.  I imagine that a number of those backs are from the years prior to 2012, when rb's seemed to be valued more, so more of them were picked in the second round.  Also its interesting that by their definition of starting caliber, the numbers of backs picked in the 6 and 7th round, and undrafted, equal those found in the first round.  

 

Eight or nine of the top 10 running backs (in terms of yards) were not drafted in the first round.  I think Ezekiel Elliot is the only one that was.   So yes, you can certainly find starting caliber running backs in the second or later.   

I agree that you can find a running back in a later round, but my thing is that people say it's easier to find a running back in later rounds than other positions, and that's just not true. The reality is that running back is basically like any other position: you can find a running back, but you can find any other position as well.

As for valuation of the RB position in general, I always said the notion of RBs being undervalued was overblown. If your contention is true (IDK) then there were only four years at most that an RB wasn't taken in the first round (and less than that for the second round). In any event, the market seems to be correcting itself. This will be the third year in a row that at least one running back is taken on day one.

[nctarheel0619]

6 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Yep. Getting healthy should get us back to the top 3 like we were in 2015. 

We cool.  But no dude.  Oher and Remmers have got to go.  

[JawnyBlaze]

That chart is more of an indicator of draft tendencies than anything, really.  Skill players go earlier, Gs, Cs, etc go later.  Good players can be found in any round, but if you need a certain caliber player at a particular position you need to pick them early. 

FournettetoPanthers2017