NFL Draft Scouts - DE Carl Lawson A Mid-Rounder

[Saca312]

For those of you wondering why I was considering him dropping to the third round - even as far as our comp pick - well, here's what some NFL draft scouts have mentioned:

https://walterfootball.com/nfldraftrumormill/article/Carl Lawson Getting Mid-Round Grades

Quote

Since being a star recruit, Auburn edge rusher Carl Lawson has gotten a ton of hype. Lawson's college career was hampered by injuries for a few years before he had his best season as a junior. Some in the media have projected Lawson as a first-round pick, including ESPN, as their draft expert, Todd McShay, has Lawson rated 27th overall for the 2017 NFL Draft. WalterFootball.com reached out to survey NFL teams, and we've discovered that they are grading Lawson much lower. In surveying five teams, none of them had a first-round grade on Lawson.  

Each team source independently described Lawson as being a very stiff pass-rusher with serious medical red flags in his draft report. Four teams said they had a third/fourth-round grade on Lawson. One said they could see a team taking him a little higher than that. Although one playoff general manager said he had a sixth-round grade on Lawson, he was planning on watching Lawson some more.  

In his final season, Lawson had only 30 tackles, but did record nine sacks. The medical evaluation at the NFL Scouting Combine is going to be critical for Lawson. Each team said they had major concerns for his medical report and some thought there was the possibility that their medical staff could flunk him. In 2015, a serious hip injury cost him seven games. That was after he missed the entire 2014 season after ACL surgery. While the media has hyped him as a first-round, Lawson having a slide in the 2017 NFL Draft is definitely possible. 

What I'm grabbing at from him is how serious teams are taking his medical history. They also note some issues in his stiff style of pass rushing (which I have noticed; he does have some work to adding to his pass rushing repertoire.) 

Otherwise, he does look like a steal if he does land down there. I think he'd be a great pick, but not particularly an every down starter day one. He does have a high ceiling, and if he remains healthy, he would be amazing value for the third.

The Combine will be key for him for sure.

[nctarheel0619]

Yeah, you should watch his film vs LT Orlando Brown from OU (First Round pick for next year).  Dude got demolished.  

[Guest Lasus83]

Health concerns are so hit or miss. Some follow players to the nfl, some don't

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[Guest Lasus83]

Sounds a bit like Hardy... didn't he drop to the 6th on health concerns?

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[Jon Snow]

4 minutes ago, Lasus83 said:

Sounds a bit like Hardy... didn't he drop to the 6th on health concerns?

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No it was because he's crazy.   He had some problems outside of school is what I remember.

[Guest Lasus83]

No it was because he's crazy.   He had some problems outside of school is what I remember.

We could use some crazy... and baseball batts

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[Vagrant]

With as much money is involved in these rankings, you have to wonder if they're entirely authentic. would a savvy agent be willing to toss $100k at a guy like Mel Kiper or Todd McShay to bump a guy up a round in his projection? agents are some of the most unscrupulous people in the world and you have to think its been tried. Always look at outliers in rankings as being super suspicious. 

[TheMostInterestingMan]

37 minutes ago, Vagrant said:

With as much money is involved in these rankings, you have to wonder if they're entirely authentic. would a savvy agent be willing to toss $100k at a guy like Mel Kiper or Todd McShay to bump a guy up a round in his projection? agents are some of the most unscrupulous people in the world and you have to think its been tried. Always look at outliers in rankings as being super suspicious. 

I've been hearing these theories an awful lot but I fail to see how this pays off. I really don't think NFL teams give a fug what Kiper or McShay have to say... so how does paying them 100k actually help the player. NFL teams are scouting players for themselves, not looking at espn mock drafts. I just don't get the idea that paying analysts can help a players stock at all.

[Rastlet]

Lawson has elite athleticism and will blow the combine up. His speed off the edge will keep him higher than the 3rd round.I would love to have him in the 3rd but I don't see it happening.

[FootballLivesMatter]

He's a today 34 OLB. Better fit for a team like KC. 

[Ace_Aladdin]

21 minutes ago, FootballLivesMatter said:

He's a today 34 OLB. Better fit for a team like KC. 

Disagree doesn't Auburn play 4-3 

[FootballLivesMatter]

1 hour ago, sanjay_rajput said:

Disagree doesn't Auburn play 4-3 

College is so different from the NFL. Clay Matthews played a 43 OLB for USC. Tamba Hali 43 DE for Penn State. So many others have come and made the transition to OLB. Lawson is better suited in the next level as an OLB in a 34. Similar to Dee Ford a former Tiger. 

[LinvilleGorge]

Not surprised. Few things will crash a player's draft stock like medical red flags. I also think he probably plays 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

[Vagrant]

7 hours ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

I've been hearing these theories an awful lot but I fail to see how this pays off. I really don't think NFL teams give a fug what Kiper or McShay have to say... so how does paying them 100k actually help the player. NFL teams are scouting players for themselves, not looking at espn mock drafts. I just don't get the idea that paying analysts can help a players stock at all.

Regardless of the veracity of their reports, teams do know where the analysts have guys ranked. If they really like a guy and know that McShay put a first round grade on them, that someone McShay talked to works for a team that did the same. Out of risk of losing that player, do you draft him a bit earlier than you would otherwise? When the team you "have a feeling about" sits on the clock at the bottom of the second round do you start to get uncomfortable? These overreaching cumulative rankings put pressure on teams because they have no idea where these opinions are really coming from. Mock drafting and player rating is supposed to be more about the summary of your findings as related to your conversations with scouts about where a player should be taken, and as such have more influence than just "your Top 200 players as presented by Todd McShay and Todd McShay alone." These guys are well-connected and the great unknown of player valuation on a team by team basis can make GMs nervous. All they need is even more speculation that their 3rd round target has vultures around him to trade up to the middle 2nd and grab him.