Panther draft position

[MHS831]

Sorry if there is another version of this floating around--but this how my math figures it out-- Current draft standings BEFORE Dec 25 games.

7. San Diego Chargers (5-10; strength of schedule .547) The Chargers would have to beat the Chiefs next week and the Panthers would have to lose to the Saints.  Not likely, but if so, the Panthers are currently the front runners based on SOS-- .547 vs. .515.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1) The Bengals host the Ravens and it would be a meaningful game for the Ravens if they win today vs. Pittsburgh.  If the Ravens lose today vs. the Steelers, their playoff hopes are gone.  Cincinnati has a chance to beat them in that scenario.  So, pull for the Steelers to win today vs. the Ravens. 
9. Carolina Panthers (6-9) If the Panthers lose vs.Tampa Bay on Jan 1, they probably get the 8^th or 9^th pick in the draft.  If they win, there are several teams just above them with a more advantageous strength of schedule, so they could end up picking 14^th in a perfect storm.  The Panthers’ SOS is currently .515, while only Philadelphia’s is higher (.563).
10. Philadelphia Eagles (pick traded to Browns) (6-9; next game:  vs. Dallas—Dallas has nothing to lose and has already wrapped-up the # 1 seed—maybe they tank the game).  Who knows?
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1; next game-Rams in LA) I think the Cards should win that game, but a loss and a Panther win puts the redbirds ahead of the Panthers on draft day)
12. Buffalo Bills (7-8; strength of schedule .481; next game:  At NY Jets.  The Bills will be favored and Ryan will not want to return to the Jets and lose.  A Panther victory and a Bills loss, however, allows the Bills to pick before the Panthers on draft day. )
13. Indianapolis Colts (7-8; strength of schedule .492; next game:  vs. Jacksonville at Indy.  The Colts face the upstart Jags next week and are coming off an eliminating loss to the Raiders.  Who knows which teams show up, but a Colt loss and a Panther win sends the Colts to the podium before the Panthers on draft day.)
14. Minnesota Vikings (pick traded to Eagles) (7-8; strength of schedule .498; next game vs. Chicago in Minnesota. A Panther win and a Bear upset would probably send the Vikings to the podium ahead of the Panthers). 
15. New Orleans Saints (7-8; strength of schedule .523; next game:  vs.Atlanta in Atlanta).  The SOS is close, but in the event of a Panther victory and Saints loss, the Panthers would probably win out because a win would increase New Orleans’ strength of schedule and decrease the Panther strength of schedule—they have many common opponents. Atlanta will be in safe mode, so New Orleans could win this.

Summary:  If the Panthers lose next Sunday, they will probably pick 8^th or 9^th. If they win next Sunday, then they are likely to pick 10-14.  However, for the Panthers to be dropped to 14^th, the following teams would have to WIN:  Rams, Jets, Jaguars, and Bears (4 teams with a combined 14 wins on the season) .  So it is realistic to expect the Panthers’ to be picking somewhere between 10-12 should they beat New Orleans Sunday. 

 

[RoaringRiot]

NO way we lose to New Orleans on the 1st.

[MHS831]

Just now, RoaringRiot said:

NO way we lose to New Orleans on the 1st.

I know--i just found the mistake--

[RoaringRiot]

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

I know--i just found the mistake--

Ha! I didn't realize you wrote that. Either way....just busting balls. 

Edit: missed the opening statement and went straight to the rankings. 

[Nails]

Good post but we play the Bucs.  We WILL go to the podium before the Saints unless they panic trade as they always do.  They played the Lions and Giants and we played the Vikings and Redskins.  Their SOS WILL be higher.

The Bengals truly deserve to be punched in the face.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, RoaringRiot said:

Ha! I didn't realize you wrote that. Either way....just busting balls. 

deserved it.  I know who they were playing and for 30 minutes did not think about it---have a nice holiday

[Nails]

Also, the game in San Diego may be the last one there, ever.  You never know.

[RoaringRiot]

9 to 14 is a big jump. But I still want to beat the Bucs.

[chknwing]

I would gladly give up carolinas 1st for oline help or a DE, and a 2nd round pick

[MHS831]

5 minutes ago, Nails said:

Good post but we play the Bucs.  We WILL go to the podium before the Saints unless they panic trade as they always do.  They played the Lions and Giants and we played the Vikings and Redskins.  Their SOS WILL be higher.

The Bengals truly deserve to be punched in the face. TRUE

Yeah--I fixed the mistake.  I am guessing we are looking at 9th if we lose and 11th if we win.

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, RoaringRiot said:

9 to 14 is a big jump. But I still want to beat the Bucs.

I still do not see 14th--again, 4 teams with a combined 14 wins this season have to win for that to happen.  I think we are looking at 9 to 11

[Yaboychris28]

we need to lose

[qazsazsaz]

Hey, if we lost our meaningless last two loses, we would be picking in the top five. 

[qazsazsaz]

^Last two wins.