Cam Newton has the longest streak of sub 50% completion rate (4) since The Golden Calf of Bristol (6)

[TheRed]

8 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

It isn't a measure in and of itself for evaluating a QB....it's part of the process though.

You do need to factor in the offense being run, the players catching the ball, and the style of play for said QB.

It's not a throwaway stat, but it's not the end all be all either.

 

Elway and Marino were sub 60% passers...much like Cam, but most of the greats are above 60%...at least in the modern era.

Unfortunately the margin for error in our offense right now is razor thin.

It's a recipe for disaster all around. Can't really blame it on one thing or one person. Next year we just have to go all in with our offense. That's my feeling at least. 

[CPantherKing]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

With a long 40 yard bomb on 3rd and long, you have to trust that Ted Ginn (obviously the deep man in any and all of these situations) will make a catch and no expects that to happen on any consistent basis. 

Well they did just this in 2015 a lot.

Ginn would drop 2 and catch 1. If you were lucky he would drop 1 and catch 1.

The difference is the offense was not playing from behind for a majority of the season, and the defense afforded them to play the odds and burn a drive or two on Ginn dropping long balls.

This season the Panthers can not trust the defense with that secondary and are having to reduce their shots down field. The issue with the lack of shots on 3rd down to Ginn means they have to use Ginn, Brown, or Funchess as the replacement for Cotchery's hands. While Cotchery was not great, he was consistent enough to make enough plays to keep the chains moving. Ginn, Brown, and Funchess were horrible in this role for the first half of the season.

The Panthers would have been better off using Bersin in Cotchery's 3rd down role. 

[thefuzz]

6 minutes ago, TheRed said:

Unfortunately the margin for error in our offense right now is razor thin.

It's a recipe for disaster all around. Can't really blame it on one thing or one person. Next year we just have to go all in with our offense. That's my feeling at least. 

Agree.  I'm typically anti big FA money, but we need another TE, a legit LT, a fullback, possibly a no. 1 RB, and a vet WR that can catch.

 

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

yeah there's a long list of guys like matt flynn, kevin kolb, matt cassel, nick foles, etc. who set the world on fire for one or two seasons in west coast systems and then flopped elsewhere, sometimes getting paid big to do it.  you could possibly include ryan fitzpatrick in that group as well.

Jeff Garcia was a prime example.

Stick him in a WCO, he'd thrive.

Anything else? Yikes!

[AceBoogie]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I think you're just looking at it wrong. 

If you check down to a guy on 3rd and long when everyone is covered, it gives said player the opportunity to do something with the ball and get a first down. The likelihood of it happening is not fantastic, but it still gives the guy a chance.

With a long 40 yard bomb on 3rd and long, you have to trust that Ted Ginn (obviously the deep man in any and all of these situations) will make a catch and no expects that to happen on any consistent basis. 

In any case, Cam isn't really taking what the Defense is giving him this year, he's trying to force a ton of throws and many are getting broken up before they get to the receivers (at least form what I've seen). This could also be due to the fact that we rarely have an outlet/dumpoff/check down route being run to help Cam when the receivers are inevitably covered downfield because they are staying in to Max protect and block for him. This is due to the poor line play this season, but what do you expect with a line full of backups. 

Also Shula isn't helping.

This wasn't intended to be a poo on Cam thread, I was just pointing out something ugly. I still have faith in him for the future.

Yea dump it off to Tolbert and have faith in him to get the first. 

[Ricky Spanish]

15 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

Cam currently has a:

• 43.7% 1D rate on 3rd/4th down. 13th among QBs.
• 1.8% TO rate. 15th among QBs.
• 4.2 RZ ratio. 15th among QBs.

Overall I have Cam rated as the 11th most productive QB in the league for 2016.

In 2015, I had Cam rated 2nd in the league based on productivity among these categories behind Carson Palmer.

• 47.3% 1D rate on 3rd/4th down. 4th among QBs.
• 2.0% TO rate. 24th among QBs.
• 2.9 RZ ratio. 2nd among QBs.

Cam Newton is on pace to turn the ball over less than he did in 2015.

Newton has struggled to convert 1st downs on critical downs due to a decline in the catching % of receivers. He lost Cotchery and that role has not been filled well by any of the WR. He is also running less this year, which has led to a decrease in his rushes and running 1st downs.

Cam Newton has been less effective in the red zone this season. It is taking him more plays to convert a TD when he is in the red zone. This will lead to an increased chance for error with the more plays a team runs in the red zone. I am not quite sure why red zone productivity has gone down. My guess would be Cam is not running it as much for TDs and trying to rely on the return of KB.

Everyone gets on Cam and the offense about TOs this season, but Cam is on pace to be better in that area. The turnover issue lies on the shoulders of the defensive drop off in stops after turnovers and takeaways imo.

I have a question for you, how do you determine catch % for receivers? Is it just targets/catches? If so does it take into account Overthrows on Cam's part? From the eye test this season, Cam is sailing more balls on plays where our guys are open far more than he did in years past. This could have something to do with not feeling comfortable in the pocket, but it's just something I've seen. Also, I've notice a lot more out routes being broken up than there were last year. Could be the receivers, could be Cam telegraphing the throws, could be defenses expecting it because Shula sucks at play calling and it's predictable. 

 

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Jeff Garcia was a prime example.

Stick him in a WCO, he'd thrive.

Anything else? Yikes!

yeah he's a great example too.  bombed with the browns and lions and then put together three very solid years with the bucs and eagles

[J.Cage]

How is this shocking news to anyone that watches the Panthers?

[ncsportsfan1234]

7 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

Check downs just for the sake of completions on third down is pointless 

Are* 

[Khyber53]

On ‎12‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 11:04 AM, CPantherKing said:

It is not about passing numbers. It is about 1st downs and TDs.

<chopped>

This, this entire post is right on the mark. Excellent work and reasoning here.

[CPantherKing]

7 hours ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I have a question for you, how do you determine catch % for receivers? Is it just targets/catches? If so does it take into account Overthrows on Cam's part? From the eye test this season, Cam is sailing more balls on plays where our guys are open far more than he did in years past. This could have something to do with not feeling comfortable in the pocket, but it's just something I've seen. Also, I've notice a lot more out routes being broken up than there were last year. Could be the receivers, could be Cam telegraphing the throws, could be defenses expecting it because Shula sucks at play calling and it's predictable. 

 

Balls thrown out of bounds are not considered, but if the player was targeted and it was too high, it still counts as a target.

I would be careful of using the eye test with this, because we will irrationally give more weight to the overthrows than the accurate passes.

Overthrows are part of the game, and it happens to many receivers. I put this in with underthrown balls, throws behind a receiver, and balls thrown to a spot. It is on the QB and receiver to work this out. It could be the receiver cutting off their route, or the QB getting hit in the pocket and getting more air under the ball.

I do not have access to this exact stat of overthrown balls. I would guess it is much lower than we believe.

What we do know is there are receivers who Cam has passed to regularly and they have all been able to catch the ball with a high catch %. Newton sails balls on Olsen, and Olsen is not around a 50% catch rate. Olsen gets the most targets of any receiver by Cam and he is typically in tight coverage. You would expect the overthrows to effect Olsen's catch % more than any other receiver, but this is not the case.

In Olsen's first year with Cam he had a 50% catch rate. The following years were 65%, 66%, 68%, 62%, and 62%. He was targeted over 100 times in all of the 60%+ seasons. This tells me that there is consistency on Cam's part even with his overthrown balls, and I would argue a couple of those early seasons with the higher catch % Cam was overthrowing many more of his passes. The lower catch % in 2015 and 2016 I would attribute to tighter coverage on Olsen and less help with other receivers drawing attention from the secondary.

To make this point even more apparent, both Dickson and Bersin catch more than 60% of the balls thrown to them by Cam and they have the least amount of work of all the receiving targets with Cam. If the overthrown balls were the issue, I would expect it to show up with all or a majority of the receiving targets and not just KB, Ginn, Funchess and Brown.

I would look toward those 4 WRs not running their routes properly, not separating from the DB on time, or physically getting knocked of their route/timing. I believe Olsen, Bersin and Cotchery learned how to set up a defender for a Newton pass knowing how he likes to deliver it over the top of a DB. The other receivers with a low catch % are likely lazy and not as detailed with their on field play.

I believe Ginn knows how to set up a defender for Cam's pass, but he just has bad hands. I do not recall too many overthrows to Ginn. Most of the passes hit Ginn in the hands.

[Ricky Spanish]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

In Olsen's first year with Cam he had a 50% catch rate. The following years were 65%, 66%, 68%, 62%, and 62%. He was targeted over 100 times in all of the 60%+ seasons. This tells me that there is consistency on Cam's part even with his overthrown balls, and I would argue a couple of those early seasons with the higher catch % Cam was overthrowing many more of his passes. The lower catch % in 2015 and 2016 I would attribute to tighter coverage on Olsen and less help with other receivers drawing attention from the secondary.

To make this point even more apparent, both Dickson and Bersin catch more than 60% of the balls thrown to them by Cam and they have the least amount of work of all the receiving targets with Cam. If the overthrown balls were the issue, I would expect it to show up with all or a majority of the receiving targets and not just KB, Ginn, Funchess and Brown.

I would look toward those 4 WRs not running their routes properly, not separating from the DB on time, or physically getting knocked of their route/timing. I believe Olsen, Bersin and Cotchery learned how to set up a defender for a Newton pass knowing how he likes to deliver it over the top of a DB. The other receivers with a low catch % are likely lazy and not as detailed with their on field play.

I believe Ginn knows how to set up a defender for Cam's pass, but he just has bad hands. I do not recall too many overthrows to Ginn. Most of the passes hit Ginn in the hands.

This is actually interesting. I still have hopes for Funchess as he gets more and more experience, he was splitting time at TE in college and was one of, if not the, youngest guys drafted last year so there is plenty of room for improvement in the nuances of the game for him. We've seen the replays of funchess getting open, just not when Cam is looking his way.

It's also interesting that the guys who have the highest completion rate with Cam are Vets or have been with him for 3+years. We know Greg is probably the best route runner on the team, Dickson is a better receiving TE than blocker, Bersin has been around for years and a damn good route runner, and Cotch was never fast so he had to rely on his route running to get open. Ginn is fast as hell and an underrated route runner at least in my opinion. But with your theory it might explain why he's our receiving corps leader in targets over the past two years. If his hands weren't so poo he'd be a pro bowler.

[Khyber53]

We should be seeing Bersin out there on more 3rd down plays perhaps. He's been absent this year and it might be showing. Even if he only converts one or two third downs per game, that can make a huge difference. And Dickson should be out there with two tight end sets more often.

 

[Cpt slay a ho]

Check downs just for the sake of completions on third down is pointless 

Not in particular to what I was referring to, Cam's play this year is a double edged sword, he's going to wait as long as he can in the pocket to make a play, and he's not running this year even close to what he did last year. With him staying in the pocket it allows for big plays on offense, but also can lead to big plays for the defense, which includes several drives being ended with a sack that puts us out of fg range(not all cam). Even if it's to Tolbert for a 2 yard gain, it beats a 10 yard sack, gotta take what the defense gives and I don't think we've done that this year at all


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