It really is about the turnovers

[Khyber53]

Think about how many games we've had decided by a single score this year. It's five games -- the difference between being in last place and contending for a home playoff game right now.

Five games. And the reason isn't as much about Cam or Offensive Coordinators or running games or offensive tackles or defensive efforts. It's really about that turnover differential. Yeah, yeah, I know everyone says that it's always turnovers. But have you looked at the numbers?

We won a lot of games because we won the turnover battle at an almost historic rate. We took the ball away more than we lost it by a wide margin. But that number doesn't really reflect how those games are won, what matters is what you do with those turnovers. Your defense can cause a crap load of fumbles or intercept everything that comes their way, but if your offense doesn't do anything, or you don't convert turnovers right then and there into pick-6s, then they don't do much more than reset the drive for your opponent.

Likewise, if your team's defense can't stop the other team after you give up the ball, then you are in big trouble. Your QB might be able to throw 5 interceptions and a stout defense could theoretically keep you in the game.

Last year, the 2015 Panthers scored 148 points off of turnovers. Our opponents were only able to score 32 points off of our turnovers. That's a 116 point swing heavily in our favor. And we rode that to the Superb Owl. That meant we averaged 9.25 points per game from turnovers and only gave the other teams an average of 2 (2!!!) points per game off of our own giveaways. That is a 7.25 point per game difference right there.

So far in 2016, we aren't quite up to our normal levels of activity in the turnover department. Through 13 games, we've scored 85 points from takeaways, but our opponents have scored 63 points off of our giveaways. That's only 22 points so far this year in our favor or about 1.7 points per game. That difference basically means 5 games won on our schedule. That's huge.

The big question is why?

I think the turnover game, more than any other part of football, is about energy, heart and will, particularly when it comes to coverting takeaways into touchdowns and in locking down the opponents after giveaways. In the first case, a team has to be up and ready to charge when they are gifted with a takeaway. They have to be able to go out, strike fast and break the will of their opponents. In 2015 we were aces at this, the team just thrived on it. This year, we tend to plod forward and are content to work our way down the field methodically after a takeaway. It's about tempo, but it is also about a good team beset with injuries having to temper their game to changes on the line. Defensively, there has to be an urgency to get that ball back. We've seen it a few times this year, but once again, injuries and tired defenses late in the game haven't been able to make as many stands (although this has been improving lately).

I think that more than anything, the long, long, long season last year, and the short, short, short off season this year spelled doom for a team that retained so many starters from last year's squad. On paper, we should have had the personnel. In reality, we had a lot of guys who hadn't had much time to rest and recuperate after the longest season any of them had ever faced before.

This season, barring some real mathematical miracles and playing lights out down the stretch, the Panthers are in for a long rest before next season. And we will have some new guys with great experience, both in the defensive backfield and some depth along the offensive line. Our coaches will have more time to game plan and refine. And Diamond-finding Dave will have earlier draft picks and somewhere around $70 million in cap space to work with.

Something tells me, next year is going to be much better and that turnover points ratio is going to look great once again, as will our record.

Here's the link to those stats:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2016/

And by the way, we're still #9 in the league when it comes to turnover points differential. For a team like ours, it's just that big of a deal. And those teams way down there in the negatives? We've only played three of them so far -- the Saints, Rams and Chargers. But looky here who we play next, the Redskins sitting at #24. Maybe we can nudge them down to say #28 or so.

[My Goodness My Guinness]

It's true. That Chargers game was single handily won with turnovers giving us a short field every other drive.


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

[AceBoogie]

If only there was a dynamic playmaker in the secondary with a knack for causing turnovers...

[FootballLivesMatter]

We really sucked beginning of the season. Trust me

[Snake]

It's important to us because of bad game management. We have lost more games because of that than we ever will because of talent. 

[Khyber53]

7 hours ago, AceBoogie said:

If only there was a dynamic playmaker in the secondary with a knack for causing turnovers...

Last year's turnovers:

Kurt Coleman: 7

Luke Kuechly: 4

Thomas Davis: 4

Josh Norman: 4

We've still got three out of four of them. Can't keep crying over Norman forever. It's like still being mad over Peppers leaving.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

27 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Last year's turnovers:

Kurt Coleman: 7

Luke Kuechly: 4

Thomas Davis: 4

Josh Norman: 4

We've still got three out of four of them. Can't keep crying over Norman forever. It's like still being mad over Peppers leaving.

 

That and all Josh's came within the first 4 or 5 games of the year. The rest of the season it was everyone else getting the picks. 

I think this is a growing pain with having such a young secondary though. Josh was in the system for years and was able to react instead of think about everything. Our rookies are still out there thinking instead of reacting. Once the game slows down for them i'd expect more turnovers. 

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

That and all Josh's came within the first 4 or 5 games of the year. The rest of the season it was everyone else getting the picks. 

I think this is a growing pain with having such a young secondary though. Josh was in the system for years and was able to react instead of think about everything. Our rookies are still out there thinking instead of reacting. Once the game slows down for them i'd expect more turnovers. 

I think you're right about this. The foundation and core of this team is much stronger than the record says. And some of the perceived weaknesses are going to be very strong next season, just by experience.

[AceBoogie]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Last year's turnovers:

Kurt Coleman: 7

Luke Kuechly: 4

Thomas Davis: 4

Josh Norman: 4

We've still got three out of four of them. Can't keep crying over Norman forever. It's like still being mad over Peppers leaving.

 

You do realize that teams stopped even throwing at Norman correct? You know what that does for everyone else on defense?

[My Goodness My Guinness]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Last year's turnovers:

Kurt Coleman: 7

Luke Kuechly: 4

Thomas Davis: 4

Josh Norman: 4

We've still got three out of four of them. Can't keep crying over Norman forever. It's like still being mad over Peppers leaving.

 

I honestly thought he was talking about Coleman sarcastically 

[KB_fan]

Back in the summer when I still had time to do Panthers stat crunching, I was looking at the question of turnover differential & net points off takeaways over time for various teams.  Turns out this is one stat that seems very fluky for teams - there is not much recent history in terms of teams repeating high turnover differential & points off takeaways year after year.  I really thought the Panthers had a chance to do it this year, but obviously things didn't go our way.  It is good to see our turnover differential improving (esp. after Sunday's W), and hopefully our young guys like Worley, Bradberry, Shaq, Butler will get in a groove and keep it going.

I'll try to dig up the research I did back in July or August on this topic and post it tomorrow if I can find a few minutes...

[Khyber53]

54 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Back in the summer when I still had time to do Panthers stat crunching, I was looking at the question of turnover differential & net points off takeaways over time for various teams.  Turns out this is one stat that seems very fluky for teams - there is not much recent history in terms of teams repeating high turnover differential & points off takeaways year after year.  I really thought the Panthers had a chance to do it this year, but obviously things didn't go our way.  It is good to see our turnover differential improving (esp. after Sunday's W), and hopefully our young guys like Worley, Bradberry, Shaq, Butler will get in a groove and keep it going.

I'll try to dig up the research I did back in July or August on this topic and post it tomorrow if I can find a few minutes...

Yep, I went back over the past few years on that site and was pretty intrigued by how good teams come in and out of the top of the chart. Bad teams, however, never seem to be at the top.

I really think there is a luck factor in turnovers and the points from them, but there are also motivation, high motor and just flat out hustle that are a part of it. A team in the groove not only creates turnovers, but scores off of them and generally, in turn, gives the ball away less. And when they do cough it up, their motivated defenses lock down the other team.

A huge portion of this, I guess you could say, is like a hunger factor. Hungry, well-coached teams are aggressive and go after their opponents. It's really hard to create that environment, and even harder to maintain it, which might explain that fluky nature of the stats. Some teams, though, seem to always have that hunger, and it's no better shown than in the Patriots (he writes without actually looking the stats up again).

 

 

[thefuzz]

Totally agree.

 

We should be better next season, unless we have a couple players retire early in Kalil and Olsen.  (don't see it happening)

 

This offseason I hope to see a couple different things that could pay huge dividends:

1:  No more Shula.  Get someone out there that can outscheme an opponent, and get Cam excited.  Shula has absolutely not flow to a game, and can't call a game to save his life if we aren't in the lead.

2:  Spend some money this season...on both our own, and a couple high end free agents.  We need to either sign, or start the process with Turner, KK, Star, Norwell, and CJ to a lesser extent.  We need to bring in a FA tackle if there is one available, and likely a safety.  Possibly a RB if a bell cow doesn't fall to us in the draft.

3:  Cam needs to work on his mechanics and his ability to get better in the short game.  We will need him to run less, and throw more when we need those 3-6 yard chunks....same goes for Stew.

4:  Everyone get healthy.  Last season was a long march, this season it will be quite a bit shorter.  Get rest, get healthy, and figure out if you really want to play football (looking at a couple players here).

[Khyber53]

20 hours ago, thefuzz said:

Totally agree.

 

We should be better next season, unless we have a couple players retire early in Kalil and Olsen.  (don't see it happening)

 

This offseason I hope to see a couple different things that could pay huge dividends:

1:  No more Shula.  Get someone out there that can outscheme an opponent, and get Cam excited.  Shula has absolutely not flow to a game, and can't call a game to save his life if we aren't in the lead.

2:  Spend some money this season...on both our own, and a couple high end free agents.  We need to either sign, or start the process with Turner, KK, Star, Norwell, and CJ to a lesser extent.  We need to bring in a FA tackle if there is one available, and likely a safety.  Possibly a RB if a bell cow doesn't fall to us in the draft.

3:  Cam needs to work on his mechanics and his ability to get better in the short game.  We will need him to run less, and throw more when we need those 3-6 yard chunks....same goes for Stew.

4:  Everyone get healthy.  Last season was a long march, this season it will be quite a bit shorter.  Get rest, get healthy, and figure out if you really want to play football (looking at a couple players here).

Yeah, that big fear of early retirements by Kalil and Olsen is the kicker. Out of all the things we could be sitting on the edge of our seats for, those two are the most important ones.

As to your others, I agree with the exception of #1. I am one of the few who doesn't think Shula has to go. I do believe he needs to add some new wrinkles to the game. This year, he pared away a lot of Cam's running game -- something he had to do to keep Cam upright, but what he tried to replace it with never materialized, mostly because of injuries on the offensive line.

I think if Shula stays and we can get some help in the running game (including better fullback play), we'll be back on track.

We have to remember that the best teams don't scrap everything each season and completely retool. They modify and build on what worked. And last year, just about everything worked. This year... well, can we take a mulligan?