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Its over, we aren't going to the playoffs.

Randolph Panther

By Randolph Panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

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Posted

The Panthers need to win out.

For the division championship, the Falcons and Bucs need to lose out, and the Saints need to lose to the Cardinals next week.

This is all tied together since the Panthers play the Bucs and Falcons, and the Saints play the Bucs and Falcons. Both games the Saints must win are in domes.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have to play in cold weather at BoA stadium outside of their dome which does not suit their game.

There is a significant chance the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers could be playing for the division title in the final week of the season with the Saints playing spoiler.

Next week.

  • 49ers must upset the Falcons in Atlanta.
  • Panthers must beat the Redskins in DC.
  • Cards must beat the Saints in Arizona.
  • Cowboys must beat the Bucs in Dallas.

Week 16.

  • Panthers must beat Falcons in Charlotte.
  • Saints must beat the Bucs in New Orleans.

Each of these needed outcomes is probable over the next 2 weeks outside of the 49ers beating the Falcons in Atlanta. That is the miracle upset that must happen to have the a 3 way competition for the division title in the final week of the season with 2 NFC South divisional games, and you better start praying for it now.

Winning the division is more likely than getting a WC. If any of the 4 outcomes that exclude the Panthers in the next 2 weeks does not occur, then the Panthers have a long shot at the WC.

Now, assuming the Panthers win out and do not win the division, then they need the following to happen to get the #6 playoff spot.

  • Need the Falcons or Bucs to lose out. Possible for Bucs to lose out against the Panthers, @Saints, and @Cowboys.
  • Need the Saints to lose 1 game. Very possible.
  • Need the Giants or Redskins to lose out. Possible Giants lose out playing the Cowboys, Lions, @Eagles, and @Redskins. Possible Redskins lose out playing Panthers, @Bears, and Giants.
  • Need the Cards to lose 1 game. Very possible.
  • Need the Packers to beat the Vikings + lose to the Bears and Lions.
  • Need the Vikings to lose to the Packers + lose to either the Colts or Bears. Possible if the Packers beat the Vikings.

The Panthers would win all tie breakers with 2nd place 8-8 teams for the #6 WC spot with a 7-5 conference record. The Packers would beat out the Vikings for their 2nd place spot with a better division record, but they can only be 6-6 at best in conference with an 8-8 record. The Giants would have a 5-7 conference record with an 8-8 record.

The bold items above are the long shots imo. I do believe a division title is more probable than a WC due to the several factors involved for 8 other teams. 

It appears Panthers fans will also be Bears fans for the next 3 weeks.

I would not say the Panthers are completely out of it. There is a fair shot for the Panthers to be in the playoffs, but there is no room for error at this point. The Panthers decided to use up all the error at the start of the season.

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Still Brooklyn Newbie

Still Brooklyn

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1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

The Panthers need to win out.

For the division championship, the Falcons and Bucs need to lose out, and the Saints need to lose to the Cardinals next week.

This is all tied together since the Panthers play the Bucs and Falcons, and the Saints play the Bucs and Falcons. Both games the Saints must win are in domes.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have to play in cold weather at BoA stadium outside of their dome which does not suit their game.

There is a significant chance the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers could be playing for the division title in the final week of the season with the Saints playing spoiler.

Next week.

  • 49ers must upset the Falcons in Atlanta.
  • Panthers must beat the Redskins in DC.
  • Cards must beat the Saints in Arizona.
  • Cowboys must beat the Bucs in Dallas.

Week 16.

  • Panthers must beat Falcons in Charlotte.
  • Saints must beat the Bucs in New Orleans.

Each of these needed outcomes is probable over the next 2 weeks outside of the 49ers beating the Falcons in Atlanta. That is the miracle upset that must happen to have the a 3 way competition for the division title in the final week of the season with 2 NFC South divisional games, and you better start praying for it now.

Winning the division is more likely than getting a WC. If any of the 4 outcomes that exclude the Panthers in the next 2 weeks does not occur, then the Panthers have a long shot at the WC.

Now, assuming the Panthers win out and do not win the division, then they need the following to happen to get the #6 playoff spot.

  • Need the Falcons or Bucs to lose out. Possible for Bucs to lose out against the Panthers, @Saints, and @Cowboys.
  • Need the Saints to lose 1 game. Very possible.
  • Need the Giants or Redskins to lose out. Possible Giants lose out playing the Cowboys, Lions, @Eagles, and @Redskins. Possible Redskins lose out playing Panthers, @Bears, and Giants.
  • Need the Cards to lose 1 game. Very possible.
  • Need the Packers to beat the Vikings + lose to the Bears and Lions.
  • Need the Vikings to lose to the Packers + lose to either the Colts or Bears. Possible if the Packers beat the Vikings.

The Panthers would win all tie breakers with 2nd place 8-8 teams for the #6 WC spot with a 7-5 conference record. The Packers would beat out the Vikings for their 2nd place spot with a better division record, but they can only be 6-6 at best in conference with an 8-8 record. The Giants would have a 5-7 conference record with an 8-8 record.

The bold items above are the long shots imo. I do believe a division title is more probable than a WC due to the several factors involved for 8 other teams. 

It appears Panthers fans will also be Bears fans for the next 3 weeks.

I would not say the Panthers are completely out of it. There is a fair shot for the Panthers to be in the playoffs, but there is no room for error at this point. The Panthers decided to use up all the error at the start of the season.

You're forgetting that Win % versus Common Opponents comes before Conference, thus if we all ended up 8-8, the Falcons would get the Division. They have a better common record than us by one.

 

But none of that matters.

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Nails Newbie

Nails

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Still Brooklyn said:

You're forgetting that Win % versus Common Opponents comes before Conference, thus if we all ended up 8-8, the Falcons would get the Division. They have a better common record than us by one.

 

But none of that matters.

How?  We have common opponents except 2, we would in theory be 1-1 vs the Vikings and Skins and they'd be 1-1 vs the Packers and Eagles.

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

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3 hours ago, Still Brooklyn said:

You're forgetting that Win % versus Common Opponents comes before Conference, thus if we all ended up 8-8, the Falcons would get the Division. They have a better common record than us by one.

 

But none of that matters.

I did not forget the common opponents.

The Falcons, Panthers, and Bucs would all be 5-5 against common opponents. Of the 10 games against common opponents:

  • Falcons would have lost to the Saints, Seahawks, Chargers, Chiefs, and 49ers.
  • Bucs would have lost to the Saints, Cardinals, Rams, Broncos, and Raiders.
  • Panthers would have lost to the Saints, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, and Seahawks.

So, it would go to the conference records. The Falcons and Saints would be 6-6 and the Panthers would be 7-5.

The Panthers would be division champions.

The 49ers and Falcons game at Atlanta is the game to watch. While I believe it is unlikely the 49ers win we need to remember the Falcons did lose to the Chargers in Atlanta.

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

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14 minutes ago, Salisburysean98 said:

If any of those happen we still are out. Just did it on the playoffs simulator. Even if Tampa loses out they get in even if we win out they get in at 8-8 and we are stuck at home at 8-8 on the couch. 

I detailed it all for you in a previous post.

The Bucs losing out and the Panthers winning out would mean it goes to the conference record tie breaker. The Bucs would be 6-6 and the Panthers would be 7-5. The Panthers will rank above the Bucs if they both finish 8-8.

The Bucs would lose to the Cowboys and beat the Bears. The Panthers lost to the Vikings and would beat the Redskins. The Bucs would finish 2-2 against the NFC West - wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. The Panthers finish 3-1 against the NFC West - wins over Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals.

Both teams would split with NFC South teams at 3-3. Among common opponents both teams would be 5-5. The conference record would decide it for the Panthers. 

The same advantage plays out if the Falcons lose out. Division would be 3-3, common opponents would be 5-5, and the Falcons would finish with a 6-6 record in the conference.

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

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14 minutes ago, Randolph Panther said:

Only thing going for us now would be to win out, hope the others lose out and then we could claim to be co-division champs that lost the tie-breaker.  

We do not lose the tie breaker against the Falcons or Bucs if the teams are tied up at 8-8.

Now, if all teams in the division were to finish out the season 8-8, then the Saints are 1st in the division with the best common opponent record of all teams. The Saints must lose to the Cardinals and beat the Falcons and Bucs to go 7-9 for the Panthers to take the division.

Yes, the Saints can still win the division. A bit comical if the Panthers and Saints run the Falcons and Bucs with some help from the Cowboys and 49ers to put the Bucs in 3rd place and the Falcons in last. The entire division can flip in 3 weeks.

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