The Playoffs: A Look At Our Division

[Saca312]

With the Failcons worrying about the Aints right now (http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4046906-looking-at-division-saints-a-concern/?page=1) and vice versa, I thought we take a look at our playoff and NFC South winner chances.

The Panthers (3-5) are looking more like a resurgence of their former 2015 selves so far. Our front has shown up, grabbing 12 sacks so far past 2 games. Our cornerbacks are getting better and better. Our offense is showing life, proving to have found a way to beat the pass rush. A healthy Oline with Oher and Kalil would be unstoppable (pending if coaches realize Daryl > Remmers). Cam Newton is a bit inconsistent, but still amazing nevertheless. Stewart's a hard runner, and we would've won a lot more games if he stayed healthy. Our TE is elite, and our WRs are huge with some speed mixed in the fray.

The Falcons have shown an explosive offense with a lot of weapons. Revamping their O-line helped churn their offense to a force, with a 2 RB tandem in the backfield. Their defense is forming up, and as much as I hate to say it, it's turned from trash, to mediocre. They got a lot of up and coming speed players getting used to the system. They have the best record so far in the division, and only got themselves to blame if they fail to capitalize on that.

The Saints are only relevant because of Drew Brees. He's been doing wonders with that patchwork offense of his. Considering their horrid defense, they won't get too far. I can see them beating Denver this weekend just because Brees is that good, but I don't see them beating us in the division.

(The Buccaneers are currently irrelevant, and likely to rot out this year. No chance they sniff the playoffs.)

So, with that in mind, take a look at the remaining schedules for each relevant team.

 

Panthers (3-5):

Chiefs @ Panthers

Saints @ Panthers

Panthers @ Raiders  

Panthers @ Seattle

Chargers @ Panthers

Panthers @ Redskins

Falcons @ Panthers

Panthers @ Buccaneers

 

Falcons (6-3):

Falcons @ Eagles

-Bye Week-

Chiefs @ Falcons

Falcons @ Rams

49ers @ Falcons

Falcons @ Rams

Falcons @ Panthers

Saints @ Falcons

 

Saints (4-4):

Broncos @ Saints

Saints @ Panthers

Rams @ Saints

Lions @ Saints

Saints @ Buccaneers

Saints @ Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Saints

Saints @ Falcons

 

Consider this scenario now.

The Panthers convincingly win this Sunday against an injured Chiefs team for the most part. That leads us to 4-5. 

The Saints barely lose as their porous defense fails them yet again, and they lose 21-23 to the Broncos. That leads them to 4-5.

The Failcons lose to the Eagles defense, and Wentz goes ham on their unpredictable defense, while Ryan regresses against a solid Eagles defense.

They go 6-4 entering their bye week, with us about 2 games behind them.

This will make Thursday's game even more meaningful. The winner of that game gets rights to be the Falcon's biggest worry, so a Carolina team against a tired Saints team after facing the Bronco's dirty D will make things harder.

Add the fact we're st home and it looks like a 41-38 win to me.

That makes us 5-5, and Saints 4-6, making us 1 game closer to the Falcons during their bye week, and us having some well deserved rest before a rough game in Oakland.

The Falcons come back from their bye against a Chiefs team at home. Only it's a bit different this go around. The Chiefs will more than likely have a healthy Houston after unleashing him on the Broncos, and Maclin back. They'll have their weapons ready to pound the Falcon's offense and their defense.

The Falcons lose. They are 6-5.

The Panthers rough it out at the Raiders. They go for a decent run game, with a lot of aerial attacks against their suspect secondary.

Raiders employ a similar strategy with their top notch oline. Unless we don't have Oher yet, we should have a real solid Oline for that game, barring Williams isn't benched (hopefully.)

It'll be a shootout for sure, could go either way, but lets say we win for this scenario.

We are 6-5.

Stop right there. Yes, I'm saying even as soon as the Falcons finish their first game after their bye, they could be tied with the Panthers for the divisional crown. 

We are that close.

Their schedule ahead isn't too easy, and the Chiefs are more than capable of beating them, especially when healthy. Eagles are a toss up, as their secondary has taken a small hit, but still a formidable defense to say the least.

Now, say things don't go our way, and we lose to the raiders. The Falcons win against the Eagles this weekend as well.

Falcons are 7-4, while we are 5-6. Not exactly a place you want to be in, but you are 2 wins away though, but still not desirable. Take a look:

Panthers face off against Seattle, who has a god-awful oline with russell wilson's scramble ability with his injury concern a worry. Even against their formidable defense, they can be beat. Expect a win even in their harsh environment, though it may be close. 

Falcons win against the 49ers easy. 2 wins still in between them.

Now, the Falcons then face a rough and tough Rams front that makes rbs into no namers. Expect falcons to lose their running game, and for Goff to light them up on his first start. Or Keenum knowing fisher. Falcons get nothing done on offense, while the Rams feast. Loss.

Panthers win against a decent SD team, and shut down #1 fantasy RB Melvin Gordon. 

One win away.

Falcons and Panthers clash, but Panthers fully healthy and hungry crush the Falcons at home, proving how valuable J-Stew really is, and making Falcon fans worried. 

Tied yet again.

Falcons and Saints face off. Drew Brees decides to fug the Failcons chances while he can, and light up their defense and smash them down. Make them look like the scrubs of the South they are. 

We win against an unmotivated Bucs team.

We get in the playoffs.

What I described above is worst case scenario, in my opinion. I can see them winning against the Eagles, but don't see them win against the Chiefs. Rams should be a loss for them as well, as the Falcons defense is horrid and the Rams could get something going. 

Saints is also a toss up for them. They could easily win it, but then again who knows. We could very easily tie in this scenario, but because the NFC is terrible we may make wildcard rounds.

The fact of the matter is: win every game above. But logically speaking, we can afford to lose to the Raiders and Seattle (toughest buff of our schedule), as long as the Falcons lose to the Eagles and Chiefs, but no one else. And there are other paths and stuff, but won't get into that.

So, the Panthers have a shot. They can lose up to 2 games in my opinion, but that's it. We control our own destiny, and we need to be on point.

(TL;DR: There is hope)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[motocross_cat]

Awsome post.

We have 1 game we MIGHT be able to lose moving forward IMO.  As much as i want them to make it our chances of a playoff berth are slim going off our consistency this season.  What happens with other teams is irrelevant if we dont win.

[Saca312]

2 minutes ago, motocross_cat said:

Awsome post.

We have 1 game we MIGHT be able to lose moving forward IMO.  As much as i want them to make it our chances of a playoff berth are slim going off our consistency this season.

3 is the charm. If we win tomorrow, I say we have lost our inconsistency and looking to be a real threat. It's entirely possible, and by then the only tough game we have is Seattle because of their defense. I'll be far more optimistic about Oakland if so.

[motocross_cat]

Just now, Saca312 said:

3 is the charm. If we win tomorrow, I say we have lost our inconsistency and looking to be a real threat. It's entirely possible, and by then the only tough game we have is Seattle. I'll be far more optimistic about Oakland if so.

It could be too late tho.  Getting even 6 out of the remaining 8 is hard in the nfl let alone basically winning out.  Again ill be at every home game doing my part and pulling for the boys.  We get in the dance and everyone should be worried.

[TheSpecialJuan]

nice work

[bigdog10]

I appreciate the optimism, but you are really selling the Falcons short. They are a different team this year. The addition of Mack has completely changed them. They are averaging 6.8 yards per play. First team to do that since a team in 2000 (that team was the greatest show on turf). 

They wont lose to the niners, Rams, or Chiefs. They also likely beat the saints at home. I think the Falcons at worst are 10-6, and our divison record will not garner us a tiebreaker against that. 

A better thing to look at would be the wildcard. We need to be pulling against the packers, Vikings, lions, Saints, Eagles, redskins, and Giants. 

It also really disgusts me to say this but panther fans should hope that Dallas wins all their remaining NFC games and Seattle as well (except the panther game of course)

[Saca312]

6 minutes ago, bigdog10 said:

I appreciate the optimism, but you are really selling the Falcons short. They are a different team this year. The addition of Mack has completely changed them. They are averaging 6.8 yards per play. First team to do that since a team in 2000 (that team was the greatest show on turf). 

They wont lose to the niners, Rams, or Chiefs. They also likely beat the saints at home. I think the Falcons at worst are 10-6, and our divison record will not garner us a tiebreaker against that. 

A better thing to look at would be the wildcard. We need to be pulling against the packers, Vikings, lions, Saints, Eagles, redskins, and Giants. 

It also really disgusts me to say this but panther fans should hope that Dallas wins all their remaining NFC games and Seattle as well (except the panther game of course)

They are good, just not that good. Mind you this is the same falcons team that has lost to the chargers and seahawks before. Mack has helped tremendously though, but personally I think the Chiefs would be a complete and tough team when they get Houston and some other players back, and the Rams have a considerably rough front that could shut down the best part of their offense; the running game.

Of course they ain't losing to the 49ers anytime soon. That'd be pretty funny to see though.

[GeorgiaBoyz]

You're wishing on an awful lot. We may drop one to the Chiefs but the Eagles are mud & so are the Rams. I don't see us just magically losing to those 2 with your reasoning. If anything we'll lose one to Carolina, NO & KC. Philly, LA, SF & AZ.. I highly doubt it. We've cut through plenty good defenses this year without having Julio or the RBs doing the heavy lifting. It's a couple ways to skin a cat with our O. My defense isn't all that bad either. Don't let the garbage points & yards fool you. I have us going 11-5 the rest of the way. 

[Kakarot]

Yea, I don't see us getting the division. I see the Falcons easily winning the division and maybe losing to us and NO from here on out finishing with 5 L's. If we win out, we'll finish with 5 L's, still losing the division due to our division record.

 

[Saca312]

49 minutes ago, GeorgiaBoyz said:

You're wishing on an awful lot. We may drop one to the Chiefs but the Eagles are mud & so are the Rams. I don't see us just magically losing to those 2 with your reasoning. If anything we'll lose one to Carolina, NO & KC. Philly, LA, SF & AZ.. I highly doubt it. We've cut through plenty good defenses this year without having Julio or the RBs doing the heavy lifting. It's a couple ways to skin a cat with our O. My defense isn't all that bad either. Don't let the garbage points & yards fool you. I have us going 11-5 the rest of the way. 

Good point mentioning Arizona. They completely slipped my mind. They may be a tough matchup for you as well, even considering Palmer's mediocrity. I actually like Zona's chances of beating you better than the Rams, based on the fact they're more complete. I don't see the Falcon's D shutting out David Johnson like the Panthers did. The Panthers have the 3rd best run defense, and could arguably be number 1 if you don't consider the season opener. Cards have good defensive players as well, plus they just came from a rough 5 quarter game against Seattle to play us.

Chiefs I expect a tough showing. I lean towards a healthy, smart Chiefs team with all weapons ready to fire. Justin Houston plus Dee Ford will give you guys headaches. Maclin back adds yet another threat for Smith to throw too, and I doubt Spencer Ware will not be a huge factor too. Biggest challenge for you guys by far.

Eagles, toss-up. I'm hoping the defense shows, but noting their secondary's injuries, I don't know. Their offense is decent, and decent should be good enough against your defense, as much as you want to hype it up. Mind you the Falcon's D nearly got sliced against an anemic Tampa team, and almost lost to a Green Bay team with WRs that could barely get separation the week before, with a crappy Oline.

And I should remind you we didn't have Stewart against you guys, which kills our run game and blocking element, and the Broncos offense is like hot poo everywhere. Raiders didn't click it together until recently as well. Plus Remmers had started first time at LT, so of course it won't go good. I fully expect a different story next go around, and with our revamped defense (12 sacks last 2 games, don't even think we sniffed half of that pre bye week) won't be pretty.

Rams, depends what they do. If they go Goff, I expect a fresh of breath air for their offense, as he'd most likely be 3000x better than Keenum. Even without him, they have a formidable defense that shuts down runners when healthy. Opposite of what you faced against Denver. Expect Matt Ryan to have a handful against them. And watch Todd Gurley breathe some fresh air against you guys. Won't be surprised in the least. Might be a stretch, but that'd be the reason why you lose.

Panthers can honestly go perfect these last few games. I can see us exploiting the Raiders D, and Seattle's awful Oline, and they are the 2 games I'm worried about. I expect a strong showing against our divisional foes, especially Atlanta, when we play you and the Saints at home.

Don't sleep on the Panthers anytime soon.

 

 

 

[Pimpdaddy]

Winning is a good prescription ....

[B.BERSIN]

At least I'm not convinced that this team will win out now.


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[blackcat]

Thanks for posting.  For me, it's the one game at a time.  We've dug ourselves a hole that we'll need lots of help getting out of.  Bottom line is that we need to win out, maybe lose 1 more, to make the playoffs.  That's a hell of a task with the rest of our schedule.  KEEP POUNDING.  

[Snake]

I was thinking 6-10 was our bottom but with the resurgence I say 8-8. We definitely could pull 10-6 for sure.