Scouting the Chiefs

[hepcat]

The Chiefs are 6-2, their two losses coming on the road against Houston and Pittsburgh. Their game against Houston was a close fought game that ended 19-12 in favor of the Texans. The Chiefs had a bad snap that directly led to a DeAndre Hopkins TD in the first quarter and set the tone for the game. Pittsburgh blew out the Chiefs 43-14 behind outstanding performances from Bell and Roethlisberger. That 29 point loss is the worst the Chiefs have endured since losing to Denver 38-3 in 2012, when they finished 2-14. The Steelers scored 22 first quarter points to the Chiefs 0. The Chiefs are 2-2 on the road this year, and this favors the Panthers with the game being in Charlotte.

One of the keys to the Chiefs offense is throwing the ball out of the backfield to the running back. RB Spencer Ware has 17 receptions for 313 yards in 7 games. Ware missed last weeks game against Jacksonville with a concussion and his presence was obviously missed. The Chiefs offense struggled against the Jaguars last week, and only won the game because of how inept the Jaguars are. Jacksonville turned the ball over 4 times, and those turnovers directly contributed to giving the Chiefs 16 out of their 19 points in the 19-14 win over the Jags. 

By all indications I'm seeing, QB Alex Smith and RB Spencer Ware will be back in the lineup against Carolina. In the Chiefs win @Oakland in Week 5, which right now looks like of their best and most complete wins with the Raiders now sitting at 7-2, Spencer Ware had 24 carries for 131 yards and a TD. Add in 2 catches for 32 yards out of the backfield for 163 total yards. After taking an early 7-0 lead and forcing a KC punt, Raiders QB Derek Carr threw an INT on his second drive that lead to a Chiefs TD on a short field and tying the game. A missed Raiders FG then lead to another Chiefs TD. The Chiefs starting feeding Ware the ball, Alex Smith made efficient throws, and after scoring another TD after halftime to take a 20-10 lead, the game was out of hand for the Raiders who struggled to stop the run.

The Chiefs most impressive win was a comeback victory over the Chargers in Week 1. The Chargers led 27-10 early in the 4th quarter after thoroughly abusing the Chiefs defense with an efficient mix of run and pass plays. A missed Chargers FG after an Alex Smith INT gave the Chiefs new life and they rallied for an unlikely victory. With the game tied at 27 and the Chargers attempting to drive to win, Chiefs LB Dee Ford came up with a huge sack on first down that ended up shutting down the Chargers final drive. RB Spencer Ware had 7 receptions for 129 yards.

The Chiefs use quick passes to the RB out of the backfield to negate the pass rush. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly are among the NFL's best at shutting down opposing RB's. The Panthers are 3rd in the NFL allowing only 77.5 rushing YPG. Out of the backfield, they've allowed only one passing TD to a RB, CJ Anderson of the Broncos Week 1. David Johnson of the Cardinals, who might be the best RB in the NFL this year, had 7 receptions for 84 yards, mostly in garbage time against the Panthers in Week 8, but was held to only 24 yards on 10 attempts. Todd Gurley of the Rams, another top RB in the NFL, was held to only 48 yards on 12 attempts, and 4 receptions for 28 yards. The Rams hapless passing offense allowed the Panthers to stack the box with an extra defender. They will not have this luxury against the Chiefs, who have a few receivers that can beat the Panthers young corners deep. They will need to keep safety help to avoid big plays downfield. With a few exceptions, opposing RB's do very little against the Panthers especially out of the backfield. 

 

 

Overall, the Chiefs play a lot like the Panthers. They rely on turnovers and play efficient offense. The Chiefs have won the turnover battle in every game they've won, the exception being Week 1 against the Chargers. Here's a good look at the Chiefs stats when they win the turnover battle: https://www.reddit.com/r/KansasCityChiefs/comments/5bqs2n/an_analysis_of_how_the_turnover_battle_affects/

On defense, the Chiefs rank 21st in the NFL allowing 369 YPG, but 8th in the NFL allowing 18.9 PPG. By contrast the Panthers defense ranks 18th allowing 363 YPG and 23rd allowing 25.8 PPG, although the Panthers defense has looked quite a bit better the past two weeks. On offense, the Panthers rank 11th in YPG at 369 yards per game (crazy how that evens out with what the Chiefs are allowing on defense), while the Chiefs offense is ranked 19th at 342 YPG. The Panthers offense averages 25.5 points per game, good for 9th in the NFL. The Chiefs are 15th averaging 23 PPG. 

The bottom line is, the Panthers will have to win the turnover battle to have any chance at beating the Chiefs. Kansas City has an opportunistic defense and an efficient offense that limits turnovers. Straight up, they don't lose when they win the turnover battle. As referenced in the link above, the Chiefs are +35 in turnover differential over their last 26 games. The Panthers will have to score first and let their defense get after the QB. If the Chiefs get an early lead and force the Panthers to come from behind, it could get ugly. Let's hope the Panthers can keep the momentum rolling and beat a very good opponent at home.

 

[mc52beast]

There should be a sense of urgency among the players since every game they play is basically a must win...

Guys need to come out swinging, offense needs to find a way to score early and force Alex out of his comfort zone

Defense needs to continue improving, d-backs need to prove doubters wrong.

[Saca312]

Good post. They feast on turnovers. That's what we need to avoid. They have the 25th run defense in the league, and it's unlikely Houston comes back for this game.

Spencer Ware can be shut out, much like how David Johnson was, just because of how good our front is. Our CBs should be fine against their wideouts, because while opportunistic, Alex Smith doesn't like going deep.

The DLine need to pressure Alex and keep him uncomfortable, while our CBs focus on the WRs up short.

[hepcat]

Aside from the post I made last week that showed the Panthers win 75% of the games where they score first, here's some more concerning stats about the start of games for the Panthers.

The Panthers defense has allowed points on the opponents first drive in 4 out of 8 games (49ers, Falcons, Bucs, Saints). The 49ers first FG was caused by a Cam Newton INT in the red zone. The Rams missed a FG in Week 9, which could have made it 5 out of 8. They have won only 1 game this year where the opponent has scored first, against the 49ers, one of the worst teams in the NFL

The Panthers have started the game with the ball on offense in 3 out of 8 games, against the 49ers, Vikings, and Falcons. In only one of those games did the Panthers score first (Vikings).

This season, the Panthers have scored first in 4 out of 8 games (Broncos, Vikings, Cardinals, Rams). They won two of those games (Cardinals, Rams), the two losses being the Broncos Week 1, and the Vikings Week 3. It's no secret the Broncos and Vikings were disappointing games to lose, games that the Panthers probably should have won. 4th quarter INTs by Cam Newton in both games ultimately doomed the Panthers. 

It's so important for the Panthers to start games strong. They have never been built to come from behind. I don't understand why Rivera insists on deferring the kickoff to let the other team get a chance to score first. He calls himself analytical Ron - maybe if he saw how often his team loses when the opposing team scores first, he'd emphasize scoring on the first drive at all costs.

[GoobyPls]

Our defense matches up well against their offense. Our corners better not play off their receivers, make Alex Smith throw it deep.

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good stuff, thanks