Turnovers

[Davidson Deac II]

Turnovers and penalties are a much bigger problem than play calling this year, by far.

[t96]

3 hours ago, outlaw4 said:

I'd say it's a higher percentage than that. I still remember how Russell Wilson had this long streak of fumbling the ball and yet finding ways to keep possession. On the flip side, someone can practice tip drills all day but trajectory is dictated by small margins. One day, they shoot upwards for an easy pick. The next, the receiver finds a way to catch it anyways.

Long story short, I wasn't expecting us to match our turnovers from last season. Didn't expect this much of a swing, however.

 

I don't think that's luck though. May be lucky for Russ, but the offensive linemen or running backs may have been ready for fumbles and had the discipline and ability to get on them before the defenders did. As for the tips if a QB doesn't want to turn it over, throw a good enough pass so that it can't be tipped. The law of averages over the course of a season will result in the bounces going about 50-50 whether on fumbles or tips. There's a lot of them every game and they average themselves out. The difference between this year and last year has nothing to do with luck. I think the lack of takeaways is due to lack of pass rush and the loss of a few players. The turnovers is all discipline. Cam's been very poor at protecting the ball this year. DA coming in of course didn't help since he had a lot himself but even without DA coming in and turning it over, it's been bad.

 

4 hours ago, top dawg said:

One thing that might fix it is to get  Kurt Coleman back into his native position. He was a key part of that equation last season.

I agree. Just need a SS that can be adequate.

[CPantherKing]

17 hours ago, stbugs said:

I can't believe I missed this gem. You aren't even close to correct. The average offense had 23 turnovers in 2015. The problem is that 30 turnovers got you the 5th worst. 33 turnovers was the worst in the NFL, so no 30 turnovers is not expected for the average team. That is among the worst. Also, when we are pace for 43, 10 more than the worst team in 2015, it 100% absolutely is a major issue. Problem is, it doesn't fit your point so you make up poo as usual.

I never said 30 was the average. I gave a range of what is expected. Of course, an average would mean you have teams with lower and higher turnover rates.

Go check out the SB offenses and how many turnovers they had in a season. A majority between 20 to 30. There were some over  30 and under 20.

What you will not find is a SB champion defense that had 24 or fewer takeaways, or gave up 10+ TDs following their offense turning the ball over.

Of the last 120 playoff teams, 11 teams had more than 30 turnovers. 3 of them went to the SB, and 2 of the others had been to the SB the previous season. 2 of these teams that were in your words 'the worst' were SB Champs. I will let you figure out the identity of those teams.

3 of every 12 playoff teams exceed 25 turnovers on the season.

You can have a SB Championship team with 30+ Turnovers as long as their defense secures 25+ takeaways. You can not have a SB Championship team with <20 turnovers and <24 takeaways.

Now, why is that? 

Your gem seems to be a desperate attempt to attack the facts due to your blind faith in Gettleman.

Here are some more facts to prove my point:

• 7 SB Champions have had a negative TO margin.
• There has been a SB showcasing both teams with negative TO margin.
• The Greatest Show on Turf was notorious for negative TO margin (-10).
• 3 of every 10 playoff teams in the SB era do not have a positive TO margin.
• The playoff team with the most TOs in the SB era won the SB. (1979 Steelers with 52 TOs; -10 TO margin)
• The 63rd least effective playoff team in the SB era for creating takeaways won the SB. (1995 Cowboys with 25 takeaways; +2 TO margin)
• The top 12 SB era playoff teams in TO margin did not win the SB. (The 13th best team is the 1985 SB Champion Bears with a +23 TO margin; 31 TOs / 54 Takeaways)
•  The 7th worst SB era playoff team in TO margin won the SB. 1983 Raiders with -13 TO margin; 49 TOs / 36 Takeaways)

Did you know that only 15% of all teams to grace the SB had fewer than 20 turnovers? Did you know 35% of the SB teams had 30 or more turnovers? So, that would mean most SB teams are between 20 to 29 turnovers in a season (50%), right? 

Here is a chart if you need to see it:

 

So, now that we know what to expect from a SB caliber offense when it comes to TOs, we can put the issue of the TO being the deciding factor on a teams performance/record to rest.

The deciding factor always rests on the defense's shoulders. The defense must keep an opposing team out of the end zone following a TO and produce more than 25 takeaways in a season, and no less than 10 fewer than their teams TOs.

The key metric to follow is the ratio of [TDs scored off TOs : TDs allowed off TOs]. The 2015 Panthers were 17:1. The 2016 Panthers are currently 5:4. Teams that reach the SB allow fewer than 5 TDs off TOs, and score more than 5 TDs off TOs.

Defensive takeaways, defensive TDs, defensive stops following a TO, leads given up by defense, offensive TOs, and offensive TDs following a takeaway are the factors for how TOs impact a game. Notice the defense is responsible for 4 of the 6 factors. It is shortsighted to discuss the impact of TOs on a game by only discussing the one factor of offensive TOs. It is even worse to expect an offense to produce less than 20 TOs.

If the defense can keep the offense from playing from behind late in games, I expect around 30 TOs on the season. If the defense forces the offense to keep playing from behind (especially late in games), I expect around 45 TOs on the season.

The issues that need to be addressed to improve the team's performance are defensive takeaways, defensive stops following a TO, and leads given up by the defense. The offensive TOs will go down if the defense gets their act together.

The defense has been scoring off takeaways and the offense has been converting TDs of takeaways. Get more takeaways. 39 last season. The defense is on pace for the lowest # of takeaways in franchise history.

Refute, debunk, or distract from the facts all you want to save face for Gettleman's off season actions that directly contributed to this mess more than anything else from coaches to players. You can not change the facts surrounding the TOs or the function of a TO within the limits of the game.

I know if Gettleman told you otherwise, and bup bup bup'd his nonsense opinions like the size of a receiver equating to a winning team more than the hands of a receiver, you would tell all the relevant facts to step aside because Gettleman is a genius.

 

 

 

Oh and btw...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[iamhubby1]

I went to college, so I ain't your average idiot. But I have no clue what point CPK is making. So, are we screwed? Or are we OK? I mean, is TO margin even worth thinking about? Some teams win with negative TO margin. Yet other teams lose with negative TO margin.

 

I admit I didn't read all that, so maybe he answered the question. But me? I confused.

 

Damm that Gman.

[juliosantos]

last year was opposite 

[CRA]

19 hours ago, stbugs said:

Agreed, it is amazing the amount of denial going on about the offense. We've scored 6 points in over half of the quarters we've played. We are on pace for 10 more turnovers than the worst team in the NFL last year. We've had key penalties blow up drives and one in particular that wiped out a TD and likely cost us the loss to Minnesota. There have been issues on both sides of the ball and special teams.

Well you have to look at it objectively...when you play top tier defenses you aren't going to see big or consistent scoring.  

I'd also throw out the Tampa game 

[TarHeel69]

21 hours ago, iamhubby1 said:

I went to college, so I ain't your average idiot. But I have no clue what point CPK is making. So, are we screwed? Or are we OK? I mean, is TO margin even worth thinking about? Some teams win with negative TO margin. Yet other teams lose with negative TO margin.

 

I admit I didn't read all that, so maybe he answered the question. But me? I confused.

 

Damm that Gman.

This is the gist: 1. everything is the defenses fought.  2.  The fact that we're number 2 in the league in turnovers has no impact on why we're losing.  Basically, the offense gets a pass and of course, he should be the GM.