Turnovers

[t96]

Huge part of why we're 1-5 that hasn't really been touched upon much.

Our turnover differential this year is -8, or 2nd last in the league. We have just 8 takeaways on defense tied with 6 other teams for 16th in the league. We've turned the ball over 16 times on offense/special teams, for 2nd most in the league. Both of these are a huge issue.

Last year we were +20, good for first in the league by a margin of 6. We had 39 takeaways, the most in the league, and just 19 giveaways, tied for 8th best. 

We're on pace for about 21 takeaways and 43 giveaways, which would be a -22 differential. That's a difference of 42 turnovers from last year to this year.

Hopefully this has been an emphasis over the bye and will be fixed.

[Mother Grabber]

this has been mentioned in a few "we suck" threads, and I agree with you that turnovers are a big reason why we were at the top last year, and at the bottom this year.  The only team worse than us in turnovers is the Jets.

[Cary Kollins]

I think this goes hand in hand with not getting any pressure on the QB.

[Bartin]

7 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

I think this goes hand in hand with not getting any pressure on the QB.

Yep. A large portion(I want to say majority but I have zero stats to back this up) of turnovers come from strip sacks or interceptions on a rushed throw to avoid pressure. NFL QB's don't often make stupid throws if they are allowed to sit there without any pressure.

[outlaw4]

Turnover differential is a fickle thing. To a certain extent, we can control that number by taking care of the ball better on offense and creating more opportunities on the defense.

Unfortunately, luck plays a factor as well such as fumbles that we can't recover or passes that get tipped and it gets picked off. That fumble last season that Dickson scored on against the Bucs is something that only would've happened last season.

[mc52beast]

Ron was caught watching fumble drills this week holding an AK-47... problem fixed

[t96]

1 hour ago, outlaw4 said:

Turnover differential is a fickle thing. To a certain extent, we can control that number by taking care of the ball better on offense and creating more opportunities on the defense.

Unfortunately, luck plays a factor as well such as fumbles that we can't recover or passes that get tipped and it gets picked off. That fumble last season that Dickson scored on against the Bucs is something that only would've happened last season.

Luck can be a small factor on fumble recoveries but not on interceptions or the actual act of fumbling the ball.

If a ball is tipped and picked it's the QBs fault for letting it get tipped by a defender. If it's off the receiver's hands it's on the receiver, or possibly QB if it's too hard of a throw and just out of reach for the receiver. No interception is ever being unlucky. A QB's stats may be unlucky if his receivers tip a lot of balls ending up in picks like Cam has had a bit of the last few years, but that's not unlucky for the team, just the QB's stats.

On the act of fumbling, any time a player fumbles it's his fault for not protecting the ball. It's never being unlucky. And a team who's disciplined at going for the football on D will have more forced fumbles than other teams who aren't disciplined or skilled at going for strips. It's not luck. The only thing that's luck is the way it bounces once it's actually lost, and that's very minimal.

I'd say turnovers are about 1% luck, if that.

[Mother Grabber]

2 hours ago, Cary Kollins said:

I think this goes hand in hand with not getting any pressure on the QB.

there's the giving up too many turnovers part as well.

[CPantherKing]

I have touched on this several times.

The Panthers are on pace to set a record franchise low in defensive takeaways, and a record franchise high in turnovers.

What compounds this even more is the Panthers D gave up 1 TD and forced 2 turnovers following team turnovers last season. They have given up 3 TDs and forced 0 turnovers this season.

The turnovers by the offense are not the major issue. You can expect an offense to turn the ball over 20 to 30 times per season. It is when an offense is forced to play from behind that the turnovers get to 30+.

The defense must effectively keep opponents from scoring TDs following a turnover and force some turnovers to counter the opposing teams defense. Turnover margin is 80% defense and 20% offense.

The secondary is not forcing their share of turnovers or scoring TDs like last season. The Panthers secondary last season combined for 15 interceptions and 7 forced fumbles. The secondary this season is on pace for 12 interceptions and 0 forced fumbles. They are clearly not attacking the ball this season.

That is your problem. Has nothing to do with sacks. The sacks last season came because QBs were forced to hold the ball and move around in the pocket to find an open receiver. KK did not get 11 sacks by getting to the QB in under 3 seconds. This season it is a 3 step drop and the ball is out. Way too easy for QBs. I doubt QBs are holding the ball longer than 3 seconds. I know they are not having to move around in the pocket much due to coverage. Their receivers seem to be open very quickly.

It would be interesting to know what the opposing QBs average release time is against the Panthers secondary last season versus this season. That will likely pin point the problem you are looking for.

[iamhubby1]

4 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

I have touched on this several times.

The Panthers are on pace to set a record franchise low in defensive takeaways, and a record franchise high in turnovers.

What compounds this even more is the Panthers D gave up 1 TD and forced 2 turnovers following team turnovers last season. They have given up 3 TDs and forced 0 turnovers this season.

The turnovers by the offense are not the major issue. You can expect an offense to turn the ball over 20 to 30 times per season. It is when an offense is forced to play from behind that the turnovers get to 30+.

The defense must effectively keep opponents from scoring TDs following a turnover and force some turnovers to counter the opposing teams defense. Turnover margin is 80% defense and 20% offense.

The secondary is not forcing their share of turnovers or scoring TDs like last season. The Panthers secondary last season combined for 15 interceptions and 7 forced fumbles. The secondary this season is on pace for 12 interceptions and 0 forced fumbles. They are clearly not attacking the ball this season.

That is your problem. Has nothing to do with sacks. The sacks last season came because QBs were forced to hold the ball and move around in the pocket to find an open receiver. KK did not get 11 sacks by getting to the QB in under 3 seconds. This season it is a 3 step drop and the ball is out. Way too easy for QBs. I doubt QBs are holding the ball longer than 3 seconds. I know they are not having to move around in the pocket much due to coverage. Their receivers seem to be open very quickly.

It would be interesting to know what the opposing QBs average release time is against the Panthers secondary last season versus this season. That will likely pin point the problem you are looking for.

 

If you find you are repeating yourself. Maybe you should rethink your delivery? You could try exploring different ways to better connect with your target audience. I mean, there must be a reason you are having to address topics over and over?

 

Now please don't take this the wrong way. What happens if the QB release time between last year, and this year, is minimal? That will do nothing to pin point the problem. Then we are stuck right back here in wtf? land. We don't need/want that. We demand answers up in here. Pin point the problem, and let's fix it. That's the Merican way.

 

What if QBs are getting rid of the ball earlier this year? Does that mean they are afraid of our pass rush? Or if the release time is longer. Does that mean the DBs are covering well, and the QB is having to wait for WRs to get open?

 

Point being. Lots goes into how long it takes the QB to release the pass. I am not sure it can be used as an accurate barometer to gauge where the problem lies.

[Krovvy]

Unfortunately Derek Anderson was the cause five turnovers in two weeks.

[top dawg]

19 hours ago, thomas96 said:

Huge part of why we're 1-5 that hasn't really been touched upon much.

Our turnover differential this year is -8, or 2nd last in the league. We have just 8 takeaways on defense tied with 6 other teams for 16th in the league. We've turned the ball over 16 times on offense/special teams, for 2nd most in the league. Both of these are a huge issue.

Last year we were +20, good for first in the league by a margin of 6. We had 39 takeaways, the most in the league, and just 19 giveaways, tied for 8th best. 

We're on pace for about 21 takeaways and 43 giveaways, which would be a -22 differential. That's a difference of 42 turnovers from last year to this year.

Hopefully this has been an emphasis over the bye and will be fixed.

One thing that might fix it is to get  Kurt Coleman back into his native position. He was a key part of that equation last season.

[Steve_Smith_Sr.]

I prefer a Danish.  Delicious.

 

Speaking of fattening foods... yes, it's Gettleman's fault that Butler tweaked his ankle.

[outlaw4]

17 hours ago, thomas96 said:

Luck can be a small factor on fumble recoveries but not on interceptions or the actual act of fumbling the ball.

If a ball is tipped and picked it's the QBs fault for letting it get tipped by a defender. If it's off the receiver's hands it's on the receiver, or possibly QB if it's too hard of a throw and just out of reach for the receiver. No interception is ever being unlucky. A QB's stats may be unlucky if his receivers tip a lot of balls ending up in picks like Cam has had a bit of the last few years, but that's not unlucky for the team, just the QB's stats.

On the act of fumbling, any time a player fumbles it's his fault for not protecting the ball. It's never being unlucky. And a team who's disciplined at going for the football on D will have more forced fumbles than other teams who aren't disciplined or skilled at going for strips. It's not luck. The only thing that's luck is the way it bounces once it's actually lost, and that's very minimal.

I'd say turnovers are about 1% luck, if that.

I'd say it's a higher percentage than that. I still remember how Russell Wilson had this long streak of fumbling the ball and yet finding ways to keep possession. On the flip side, someone can practice tip drills all day but trajectory is dictated by small margins. One day, they shoot upwards for an easy pick. The next, the receiver finds a way to catch it anyways.

Long story short, I wasn't expecting us to match our turnovers from last season. Didn't expect this much of a swing, however.