Hurricane Matthew

[jasonluckydog]

It's 6am in Charleston the eye will be here in an hour the 1st half of the storm hasn't been horrible I'm sure that will change soon.  This is a long storm we lost power 3x and it got hot quickly hopefully the 70+ weather will be here shortly after the storm. I'm going on 2 hours of sleep.

[pstall]

I'm going to the Wake Forest game and looks like tons of rain for that.  Fun.

[Captain Morgan]

tornado in north myrtle beach last night, no injuries

[Paa Langfart]

for those in the Cape Fear area I saw this on the NWS site and the local reporters havent mentioned it yet - dont be lulled into thinking it is over as it starts moving away- that may well bering us the strongest winds yet

 

Tropical storm force winds will continue to spread northward 
along the coast this morning, but I fear there is a surprise 
waiting for US late this afternoon into this evening. For several 
days the GFS model has been indicating as the center of Matthew 
passes south of Cape Fear, rain-cooled air across interior North 
Carolina would get pulled south behind the storm. As lapse rates 
steepen in the lowest 1500-2000 feet of the atmosphere, winds of 
60-80 mph may get transported down through this mixed layer to the 
surface. For many locations north of Myrtle Beach this may be the 
strongest winds we see from the entire event, and could pose quite 
a shock as the system will seem to be on its way out to sea by 
then. After a foot of rain, gusts this strong would almost 
certainly uproot trees causing power outages and blocked roads. 

[OBXPantha]

Well, the weather forecasters were all wrong. The storm did not move out to sea.  There is  massive flooding and power outages in the outer Banks and albemare sound area

[Davidson Deac II]

The storm pretty much followed the predicted track.  The forecasters have gotten very good at predicting these things. 

[Floppin]

5 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

The storm pretty much followed the predicted track.  The forecasters have gotten very good at predicting these things. 

Not really. Other than it running up the coast of Florida their predictions were way off. A few days ago it was predicted to turn out to sea around Charleston SC.

[Davidson Deac II]

Just now, Floppin said:

Not really. Other than it running up the coast of Florida their predictions were way off. A few days ago it was predicted to turn out to sea around Charleston SC.

The track I have been watching for the last few days predicted it to hug the coast for a while and then turn out to Sea, somewhere between Charleston and Morehead city.

 

Here is the prediction from 4 October

http://www.christianpost.com/news/hurricane-matthew-tracker-projected-path-latest-map-catastrophic-storm-takes-haitian-lives-threatens-southeastern-us-170429/

That is about as accurate as possible.  There is of course going to be a possibility of a variation of 50-100 miles, but given what they are dealing with, that is extremely accurate.  

 

[Floppin]

1 minute ago, Davidson Deac II said:

The track I have been watching for the last few days predicted it to hug the coast for a while and then turn out to Sea, somewhere between Charleston and Morehead city.

 

Here is the prediction from 4 October

http://www.christianpost.com/news/hurricane-matthew-tracker-projected-path-latest-map-catastrophic-storm-takes-haitian-lives-threatens-southeastern-us-170429/

That is about as accurate as possible.  There is of course going to be a possibility of a variation of 50-100 miles, but given what they are dealing with, that is extremely accurate.  

 

Yeah I remember that prediction, but then they changed it in the following days to have it making a big turn somewhere between northern Georgia and central SC, potentially sending it back around towards Florida or the Bahamas.

I'm not sure if saying that a prediction that they ultimately updated and disregarded is some proof of their accuracy is really true.

[Davidson Deac II]

1 minute ago, Floppin said:

Yeah I remember that prediction, but then they changed it in the following days to have it making a big turn somewhere between northern Georgia and central SC, potentially sending it back around towards Florida or the Bahamas.

I'm not sure if saying that a prediction that they ultimately updated and disregarded is some proof of their accuracy is really true.

You and I are watching different forecast.  I think you are nitpicking again, but whatever.   Its time for football.  

[Floppin]

I think generally the models do fairly well, but this storm was unique and their models changed drastically ever couple of hours. Ultimately the storm just ran up the coast and still is, despite all predictions of it turning at some point.

[Floppin]

Just now, Davidson Deac II said:

You and I are watching different forecast.  I think you are nitpicking again, but whatever.   Its time for football.  

I was just going by the NWS predicted track thats based on an aggregate of all storm tracking models.

[Paa Langfart]

The forcasters predictions were poo for this storm.

[Jimmy]

Any of you live in the Emerald Isle, Atlantic Beach area? How'd it go on the Crystal Coast? Are the two piers still intact? Did the ICW get hammered?