Good Analysis: Our Defensive Pressure is NOT the Problem

[Saca312]

I managed to find a decent excerpt basically dissecting our real issue on defense from ESPN. And it's not how our D-Line can barely get any sacks. In fact, it's plainly just our rookie secondary play. As expected, we are having rookie pains in our secondary, which I'm surprised all of you are shocked about. This article really brings into light some of our problems we have with our Defense and Offense, and how improvements can be made in those areas, as well as logical reasons for why we are where we are. I'll leave a few excerpts from there on their take our defense. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/barnwell/the-denver-broncos-cruising-carolina-panthers-struggling-long-super-bowl-50-nfl

On our defensive front's production:

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The good news for Carolina is that it's still getting a lot of pressure. Last year, the Panthers bothered the opposing quarterback on 28.7 percent of dropbacks. Through four games this year, their pressure rate is at ... 28.7 percent. Not bad. That's the sixth-best rate in the NFL.

On what happens when we don't get pressure:

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The problem is when they don't get pressure. Last year, when the Panthers couldn't get pressure on the opposing passer, they were still third in the league in opposing passer rating and 11th in QBR. This year, when they leave the quarterback alone, Carolina is 19th in opposing passer rating and 28th in QBR.

So obviously, our defensive front isn't the problem so far. Even with our poor DE play, you guys act like we didn't have that same exact problem last year, even with Jared Allen, as much as I love him. We're still getting a lot of pressure, it's just QB's we've faced imo release the ball a lot faster, reason our sack numbers aren't as high. Our main concern is our overhauled secondary, which was expected straight from the beginning. As much as I would've loved some money being spent on getting veterans in our secondary to alleviate some pains of losing Norman, which I think is currently a mistake for letting his tag loose. Our secondary is the main problem, but honestly the way Gettleman drafted our secondary will be top notch in the future. It's just the growing pains of starting rookies that'll give us problems for the early stages. As dismal as the present looks, you gotta be excited for what we could become when the likes of Bradberry and Worley start clicking. 

On 2015's secondary stats to 2016's:

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2015 ... Simple enough: The Panthers allowed quarterbacks to survive underneath, but when teams threw downfield, Carolina ate them alive.

Last year, on defending throws 11 or more yards in the air ... the Panthers posted the league's best opposing QBR by 10 points (46.0), tied for the league's best passer rating (57.5), and allowed teams to complete only 41.2 percent of their passes while throwing 10 touchdowns against 16 picks. 

This year, the Panthers are close to helpless downfield. Only the 49ers have allowed a worse QBR than Carolina's 99.0 mark. Sean McDermott's bunch is allowing a passer rating of 130.3 on those throws, with teams completing 68.3 percent of their passes and tossing up six touchdowns against two picks. Atlanta torched Carolina downfield in Week 4, but it was a problem even before Sunday; the Panthers were allowing a passer rating of 103.5 on those throws over the first three weeks.

As I said, our secondary is the main reason our defense is poo, and these statistics prove it. 

On our secondary's communication:

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It's still too early to break down the coverage issues in the Falcons game because the league won't post the All-22 film from the contest until tomorrow, but from replays, commentary and the few big plays which yielded coach's tape on replay during the game's broadcast, it's clear that there are communication and coverage lapses within the Carolina secondary. While there were plays in which Jones was simply too big and fast for any defender on the Panthers' roster, Carolina put itself in impossible situations and seemed to make as many mental mistakes as there were physical.

Start with this 43-yard bomb in the first quarter, which would have been a touchdown if Matt Ryan made a better throw over the top. (Ryan played well, but he left at least three would-be long touchdowns to Jones on the field with misplaced or underthrown deep passes.) I have to believe McDermott doesn't want to leave rookie cornerback Daryl Worley one-on-one on an island against Jones. And while Jones reduces Worley to dust at the line of scrimmage, after the play, Worley was shouting and pointing at safety Kurt Coleman, as if he was expecting help downfield.

On a first down in the second quarter, Jones beat Bene Benwikere over the top, but Ryan underthrew his pass and Benwikere was able to sprint at full stretch to tip it away. Two plays later, on third-and-17, Jones lined up in the slot and ran at full speed past Benwikere as the defender shuffled at half-speed. Jones ended up open by 5 yards downfield. Ryan's throw was poor and drew Jones into the middle of the field and in the line of fire of Coleman, but the result was a 53-yard gain. There's a coverage breakdown there which will be revealed by coach's tape, but the specifics are less important than the general problem: How on Earth do you end up with a coverage in which Jones is brutally uncovered downfield on third-and-17? Nobody does that on purpose.

The big plays to Jones later in the game were more about Jones' physical dominance and bad tackling. The soul-crushing 75-yard touchdown pass that got Jones to 300 yards came when the Falcons went with play-action and opened up the middle of the field. Jones beat Benwikere badly at the snap and shoved him aside after the catch, while deep safety Tre Boston took a terrible angle to the receiver and saw Jones accelerate right by him. Luke Kuechly even slowed down while he thought Benwikere was about to make the tackle. A great block downfield was enough to seal the touchdown.

One of Atlanta's other big plays also revealed a communication problem within the secondary. On the 48-yard touchdown pass to rookie tight end Austin Hooper, the Falcons went with play-action to the left and booted Ryan out to the right side of the field, a classic move in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Instead of throwing to the right side, though, Hooper feigned blocking before slipping out to the left side of the formation and running a go route. Not only did the Panthers totally switch off and fail to cover Hooper, but the view from the sky points out that they actually had two receivers open for big plays downfield:

Josh Norman might have been able to help with Julio Jones, but he can't cover both of those guys. And while I didn't really notice a lot of these issues in Week 3 against Minnesota, the Vikings don't really stretch teams vertically as often. Even against the middling 49ers passing attack in Week 2, the Panthers had trouble. Here's one example. Boston is again the deep safety on a second-and-9 just outside the red zone with Worley matched up in coverage against Torrey Smith. Despite the fact that Vance McDonald's crossing route is surrounded by no fewer than three Panthers defenders underneath, Boston sprints forward to try to break up any throw to the tight end, allowing Smith an easy release on his deep post for a touchdown. Here's the scene right after the ball is thrown:

And Boston wasn't the only safety who made a mistake to create an easy touchdown downfield. Coleman took a messy route to turn a short Vance McDonald catch into a 75-yard touchdown.

There's a lot of links to video clips and gifs in this part of the article that I can't load up for some reason, but our secondary having communication issues is a real concern. We need to be solid in what we're giving out and what assignments are given, and if they aren't shown, problems like these occur. Our secondary as a whole has not been showing up, and this right here backs up the claim. If we are to be formidable, at the very least solid, we need to fix these mental mistakes and get with our game.

On whether we can comeback:

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Will the Panthers figure it out? History suggests they will. McDermott and Ron Rivera have had to deal with this in the past. The secondary they inherited was a mess and they soon lost their best cornerback in Chris Gamble, who retired. They pieced together a useful unit from spare parts during Carolina's breakout season in 2013, but the cap-strapped Panthers were unable to retain Mike Mitchell and Captain Munnerlyn in free agency, while fellow starter Quintin Mikell retired.

The Panthers tried anew in 2014, but nothing worked for most of the year. Holdover Melvin White declined and was benched. Free agents Thomas DeCoud and Antoine Cason failed to impress and eventually lost their jobs late in the season. Norman, who had been lurking on the back of the roster, worked his way into a starting job and started to play like a Pro Bowler. Benwikere, a rookie fifth-rounder, got a shot out of sheer desperation and outplayed Cason.

Things clicked just in the nick of time for the Panthers. After Benwikere replaced the released Cason in the lineup for the final four weeks of the season, the Panthers went from allowing 27.6 points per game (and going 3-7-1) to allowing just 10.8 points over their final four contests, winning them all and claiming the NFC South. Norman emerged as a superstar, and Carolina's pass defense began to look like the suffocating unit which was so impressive last season. In 2014, though, it took the Panthers three-quarters of the year to get things right, and they were surprised to find that nobody else was particularly interested in winning the division.

It's kind of amazing how our secondary has been a crutch for us so much recently in the past. Considering our 2014 early start was a mess, and how we still prevailed says a lot. To have guys start clicking later on in the season is crucial. I honestly think our secondary can get to that point, and we start being respected, but for the meanwhile we'll have the growing pains of learning. Julio Jones brought the hammer and gauntlet, but that's an experience our secondary can learn from.

All in all, we just need to improve and get better. That takes time, but I think it's possible. We ARE a good team, we just need to perform like one. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great find. thanks

[mc52beast]

So even though with all the talk from Dave and Ron about how the team wasn't going to stand pat and how they weren't going to let the team go backwards, they knew there was a pretty good chance the defense was going to struggle against good offenses... 

Maybe they were hoping our offense would continue putting up big numbers.

[Saca312]

4 minutes ago, mc52beast said:

So even though with all the talk from Dave and Ron about how the team wasn't going to stand pat and how they weren't going to let the team go backwards, they knew there was a pretty good chance the defense was going to struggle against good offenses... 

To be fair, if you think starting rookies in the secondary wouldn't go backwards, you're naive. But the results after they learn could lead us to multiple superbowl appearances in the future. It's just the present looks dismal. Gettleman has secured our future, but patience is definitely key in the present.

[truthjuice]

I get planning for the future but this is the NFL. You have to win. You don't come off of a super bowl and have a losing season.  Gettleman messed up big time letting certain players walk without quality players replacing. They gambled on riding the offensive wave and it backfired. 

[Saca312]

45 minutes ago, truthjuice said:

I get planning for the future but this is the NFL. You have to win. You don't come off of a super bowl and have a losing season.  Gettleman messed up big time letting certain players walk without quality players replacing. They gambled on riding the offensive wave and it backfired. 

While I'm honestly surprised that there weren't any FAs coming in to at least provide veteran leadersip, I still think what happened to JNo was inevitable, due to the fact that his agent, well, didn't know how to be an agent. Dave Gettleman isn't one to buy into that sort of mess, so he let him go. Of course, I believe we should've instead let him ride the tag, but the possibilities of negative repurcussions on the team were evident. But it is what it is. I believe our secondary can get better, but it will take time.

[Bartin]

We are blitzing 50% more often this year.

[OneBadCat]

We are clearly lacking at DE. Riverboat Ron needs to make an appearance and take some chances. The offense has to stay on the field to give our defense a chance. We did it in 2013/14 to make up for a lack of talent. We need to it now until the units start to gel on both sides of the ball.

[Snake]

The play of Tre Boston and Rookie CBs have hindered us. 

[Saca312]

20 hours ago, Snake said:

The play of Tre Boston and Rookie CBs have hindered us. 

Really it's the safeties IMO. We need a ver presence soon over on that side with the communication issues.

[TN05]

It is kind of weird we have 9 sacks and nobody has more than 1 sack though

[5up]

Us playing the zone is the problem in my imo I think we should do zone and man and not just play zone the whole game where the qb just sits and rip our secondary apart


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[B.BERSIN]

I didn't see much pressure to the other quarterbacks, the stats can say whatever you want but when it comes to Sunday, I just don't see much pressure.


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[jfo89]

On the 3rd and 17 to Julio and the TD to Hooper Matty Lice had all day to throw. Those coverage breakdowns don't matter if Ryan is on his back. Pressure does not equal sacks. It great to have pressure, but if the QB can just slide over or climb the pocket to escape then that pressure means nothing.