Interesting Panthers stat

[sharkkiller]

Reading on ESPN while checking college football scores, and found this nugget hidden in an article

 

Quote

48.1: The percentage of drives that have resulted in three-and-outs for theCarolina Panthers' opponents through two weeks. That's the top mark in the league. The Minnesota Vikings have overcome early-season adversity en route to a 2-0 start, but Sam Bradford and company face a big-time challenge against the Panthers.

That is a pretty amazing stat. I know our defense has not been as dominant on the surface, but it is pretty damn effective when it counts.

[ItsPantone278]

Impressive but consider the QBs we've faced thus far.  

[csx]

It seems it has all the potential to tighten up. They are doing excellent on many oponent possessions as this stat shows. Maturing secondary and protecting the ball on offense a little better can make make a noticeable difference on the scoreboard.

[KB_fan]

Hmmmm.  That stat seems much too high to me.

Do you have a link to the article  @sharkkiller? 

Maybe I'm missing something, but according to the drive chart data from the gamebooks, I have the following recorded in my 2016 game data spreadsheet:

• Vs Broncos: Panthers forced 3  3&outs in 9 net drives  (33%)
• Vs SF:  Panthers forced 4  3&outs in 16 net drives (25%)

So that's a total of 7 3&outs in 25 drives for a season-to-date percentage of 28%.

I'll review my data, but here are the drive charts for you all to check out:

 

I STILL only count 7 total 3&out drives for our opponents (3 vs. Denver / 4 vs. SF)

A couple of possibilities as to where ESPN could be getting the MUCH higher total:

• Maybe they're not excluding kneel down drives?
• Maybe they're not excluding drives that ended in an opponent's turnover?
• Maybe they're calculating the total of drives with NO first downs by the opponent?

Or maybe they're just flat out wrong?

I'll check out some other sources of data like Sporting Charts or PFR to see what other sites are saying about our opponents 3&out %

[sharkkiller]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Hmmmm.  That stat seems much too high to me.

Do you have a link to the article  @sharkkiller? 

Maybe I'm missing something, but according to the drive chart data from the gamebooks, I have the following recorded in my 2016 game data spreadsheet:

• Vs Broncos: Panthers forced 3  3&outs in 9 net drives  (33%)
• Vs SF:  Panthers forced 4  3&outs in 14 net drives (25%)

So that's a total of 7 3&outs in 23 drives for a season-to-date percentage of 28%.

I'll review my data, but here are the drive charts for you all to check out:

 

Maybe they're not excluding kneel down drives?

Maybe they're not excluding drives that ended in an opponent's turnover?

Maybe they're calculating the total of drives with NO first downs by the opponent?

Here is the article. It was just a blurb with no other information. 

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/215353/biggest-week-3-nfl-questions-stats-and-predictions

It would not surprise me if they were wrong, or had some screwed up way to get to that number.

@KB_fan I trust your stats much more than theirs, based on history.

[TheSpecialJuan]

KC Joyner ESPN Insider 

Here are the top five teams in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric after Week 2. GBR measures how often an offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Carolina 52.2% Oakland 49.0% Miami 48.4% Chicago 47.2% Kansas City 44.1%

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[t96]

1 minute ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

KC Joyner ESPN Insider 

Here are the top five teams in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric after Week 2. GBR measures how often an offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Carolina 52.2% Oakland 49.0% Miami 48.4% Chicago 47.2% Kansas City 44.1%

share

 

Stew's a solid back for sure but it's this type of thing that makes me wish we had a truly dominant HB to pair with Cam. A guy like Gurley so he wasn't stuck in "1 on 12" situations on that sh*tty Rams offense. Our offense is damn good as it is with Stew healthy clearly, possibly the best in the league. But with an elite HB like Gurley we could be among the best ever. I absolutely love me some Stew but he's always banged up and when he isn't missing games like he will this week and possibly longer, it's likely affecting his play too. We had extremely good run blocking last year from the line, except for Oher who was sub-par, and Stew's numbers weren't very great. I watched the games and of course remember him playing like a boss but I feel he leaves some yards on the field because he doesn't have as much ability to break one loose for a huge gain, which seems like it's there quite a bit with how good our run blocking is. Stew's getting older as well and it'll be sad as hell to have to move on but it's inevitably going to come soon, and I hope we can get that dominant back in next year's stacked draft class. Would be ideal to have Stew around another year to get that guy adjusted, and up to the task in pass protection and to have a nice tandem again since we know Rivera loves his RB tandems.

[KB_fan]

Panthers are 3rd overall in terms of defensive drive success rate according to Football Outsiders data:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef

 

[KB_fan]

I've just tweeted the author of the article at ESPN.... we'll see if I get a reply.   I'm also about to go browse through the database at PFR and see if I can verify whether Panthers indeed are leading the league with % of forced 3 & outs, even if ESPN has the % wrong, maybe we are leading??  Stay tuned...

[KB_fan]

The ESPN author thinks he used the figure for all drives with 0 first downs.  He's re-checking the totals now.

In the meantime, using PFR, I've done the number crunching.  I looked at total drives for each team's opponents (minus kneel downs).  Then the number of drives with 0 first downs.  And then of those drives with 0 first downs, the total ended in punts (3&out) or on downs; or ended by a turnover (without a 1st down).  Finally you have the sum of 3&outs+ turnovers and as a % of total drives.

Panthers are 3rd best in the league in terms of forcing a drive to end in a 3& out or a turnover (without a 1st down).

(Data for Houston & New England is based on three games; all other teams are based on two games)

LOL at Oakland!!!  Maybe we don't have to be quite so worried about that game after all, though a lot can change between now and when we play them.

[The Lobo]

5 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

The ESPN author thinks he used the figure for all drives with 0 first downs.  He's re-checking the totals now.

In the meantime, using PFR, I've done the number crunching.  I looked at total drives for each team's opponents (minus kneel downs).  Then the number of drives with 0 first downs.  And then of those drives with 0 first downs, the total ended in punts (3&out) or on downs; or ended by a turnover (without a 1st down).  Finally you have the sum of 3&outs+ turnovers and as a % of total drives.

Panthers are 3rd best in the league in terms of forcing a drive to end in a 3& out or a turnover (without a 1st down).

(Data for Houston & New England is based on three games; all other teams are based on two games)

LOL at Oakland!!!  Maybe we don't have to be quite so worried about that game after all, though a lot can change between now and when we play them.

Thanks for the info. We should be second, but Philly has played pop warner teams so their numbers are better.

[KB_fan]

Of course after doing that research to see where Carolina stacks up in terms of stopping opponents from getting a first down in a drive in 2016, I got curious about the Panthers' historical performance.   So far our 2016 pace is the best in the Newton / Rivera era..., but of course it's early in the season:

 

[iamhubby1]

43 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

The ESPN author thinks he used the figure for all drives with 0 first downs.  He's re-checking the totals now.

In the meantime, using PFR, I've done the number crunching.  I looked at total drives for each team's opponents (minus kneel downs).  Then the number of drives with 0 first downs.  And then of those drives with 0 first downs, the total ended in punts (3&out) or on downs; or ended by a turnover (without a 1st down).  Finally you have the sum of 3&outs+ turnovers and as a % of total drives.

Panthers are 3rd best in the league in terms of forcing a drive to end in a 3& out or a turnover (without a 1st down).

(Data for Houston & New England is based on three games; all other teams are based on two games)

LOL at Oakland!!!  Maybe we don't have to be quite so worried about that game after all, though a lot can change between now and when we play them.

 

Dudette. It is Sat. night. Don't you math nerds ever take time off? Sheesh girlfriend. We all love your mathgeekdom. But I worry that you may be neglecting some other aspects of your life. You know the good things in life. Friends and family, a good draft beer, fightin' and rasslin'. You know, the things that make life worthwhile.

 

Or maybe I should just shut up, and let you do your thing? Decisions decisions.

[KB_fan]

Just now, iamhubby1 said:

 

Dudette. It is Sat. night. Don't you math nerds ever take time off? Sheesh girlfriend. We all love your mathgeekdom. But I worry that you may be neglecting some other aspects of your life. You know the good things in life. Friends and family, a good draft beer, fightin' and rasslin'. You know, the things that make life worthwhile.

 

Or maybe I should just shut up, and let you do your thing? Decisions decisions.

No worries.   I had a nice relaxing afternoon, and spent some good time with local friends the past few days.  Tonight I'm sitting at the computer waiting for a friend to Skype me from the U.S., so it was easy to do some number crunching while the computer was open in front of me.  But I appreciate the concern!