Panthers can't and won't draft defensive lineman worth a shit

[mmmbeans]

I read somewhere that Atiyyah Ellison is a back up in Jacksonville.....and he still sucks.

We also had Tony Brown in 2006 and let him go after 1 year. He has since started 35 games with 10.5 sacks and 93 tackles as a starter on a very respectable Tennessee Titans d-line.

Dave Ball is in heavy rotation with them as well, meaning that literally a little over a third of the Titans D line depth chart has been cut at one point or another by carolina.

[thefuzz]

Indeed.

But a strong WR core and a Dominate O-line could mask said problem.

It did for most of the Fox Era.

True.

I think that we may pop out of this funk, sooner rather than later.

Still seeing 9-7, but another loss and I will have to down grade them to 8-8.

2 back in the conference, and 1.5 back in the division. We need a win.

[Kurb]

If we lose another I want to tank the season and get something new, at least I will be excited again.

[rayzor]

I hear he writes a fab sports article though.

hopefully he'll have plenty of opportunity to next year.

[mr beauxjangles]

Put it this way:

You have 22 starters. Four of those are defensive linemen. That's 18.18%. As you pointed out, they've taken 5 in the last 29 picks in the top three rounds. That's 17.24%. It's hard to justify that they've ignored the positions from that stanpoint. Especially when we had Pro Bowl caliber players in Mike Rucker and Kris Jenkins. I'm not going argue as far as quality - there have been some busts, but this is true for all positions and all teams. I've got faith in Charles Johnson. I think he can be a starting end in this league. But I can understand opinions to the contrary.

We pretty much average one bust each year out of our top three picks. I think that's probably pretty standard in the NFL. In my opinion, where we've really failed, is in the later rounds. Look back our draft history. We've found some decent backups, but no real diamonds in the rough (this past year could be different, but it's far too early to say).

Looking at the teams you mentioned, here's how many D-linemen they've drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2002:

Giants: Six (Alfrod, Kiwanuka, Tuck, Reggie Tarbor, Osi, William Joseph)

Ravens: Six (Kruger, Nguta, Edwards, Green, Suggs, Weaver)

Chargers: Four (English, Martin, Castillo, Olshansky)

Patriots: Four (Brace, Wilfork, Marquise Hill, Ty Warren)

Steelers: Three (Hood, Woodley, Alonzo Jackson)

The Panthers with five D-linemen picked in the top 3 rounds during the same span doesn't seem so low. Sure, the teams above have made some great picks, but some of those guys aren't in the league anymore. No question Ellison was a huge bust for the Panthers, but in my opinion, looking at the numbers, the attention to D-linmen in early rounds doesn't seem to be an issue, especially when you consider that the D-line was the least of our needs during much of the span from 2002-2006. And remember that we took Jenkins in 2001.

[pantherclaw]

He drafted Peppers. Which was, and still is the best defensive player on the line. We also had a much more talented line back in the beginning of the Fox era. There wasn't a need to draft d-linemen. And the way needs went, along with drafts, it just didn't happen. But I see you want to lay more blame on the coaches and GM, so I'll step out of this conversation now.

[scpanther22]

If we lose another I want to tank the season and get something new, at least I will be excited again.

This is how i am thinking but.. we dont have a first round pick.

[jpo287]

The Panthers with five D-linemen picked in the top 3 rounds during the same span doesn't seem so low. Sure, the teams above have made some great picks, but some of those guys aren't in the league anymore. No question Ellison was a huge bust for the Panthers, but in my opinion, looking at the numbers, the attention to D-linmen in early rounds doesn't seem to be an issue, especially when you consider that the D-line was the least of our needs during much of the span from 2002-2006. And remember that we took Jenkins in 2001.

But it looks different when you consider that Fox's conservative style is predicated upon getting pressure with your front four. Given that fact, you would have assumed they would have spent a couple of first round picks on them. Certainly they deserved more resources than what was spent.

[pstall]

Excellent work fiz

[Fox007]

It's pretty much understood at this point that Fox is a horrible coach, we can pick him apart all day.

Time for change.

[Mr. Scot]

During the John Fox era, the Panthers have neither emphasized spending early draft picks on defensive linemen or developed the ones they did. Jovan Haye didn't turn into anything until he left the Panthers and had his position changed.

Why is this a problem, besides the fact it's a fashionable way to poo on the coaching staff? John Fox's scheme relies on pressure by the front four. Outside of drafting Julius Peppers, they've done nothing to bolster this ability. Instead they've relied on free agent signings, and with only one exception they've never signed elite talent.

Here's a brief recap.

2002

1st - Julius Peppers - a no brainer. I don't really give them credit for this pick, since he was the most hyped defensive end coming out of college since jevon kearse.

2003

5th - Kindal Moorehead - good rotational guy, nothing more. not starter material here or elsewhere.

2004

Nothing

2005

3rd - Atiyyah Ellison - some dude

6th - Jovan Haye - played out of position here, flourished at DT in Tampa Bay, starting in tennessee and producing.

2006

7th - Stanley McClover - sucked

2007

3rd - Charles Johnson - situational guy, kinda good.

2008

7th - Hilee Taylor - worthless pick to please fans. probably a wolb in a 3-4

2009

2nd - Everette Brown - looks awful

3rd - Corey Irvin - sucked before he got hurt. project.

during the Fox era, the panthers have had 29 top three round picks. They've selected 5 defensive linemen. This may seem like a lot, but they've selected 4 running backs in an age where you can find running backs everywhere. 4 corners for a team that started reggie howard and dante wesley in the super bowl. a billion linebackers.

the success of the giants, patriots, chargers, steelers, and ravens have shown that it takes high picks invested in the defensive line to maintain success. Positions like running back can be filled at any point.

the line has rotted from the inside out, and that's why the panthers are in the position they're in.

Not entirely accurate on the examples. Two of the three starters on the Ravens DL are free agents (Kelly Gregg and Trevor Pryce; Haloti Ngata was drafted but he succeeded an undrafted guy in Kemo). Also, the Giants line has a free agent starter in Fred Robbins and would be an even split if Chris Canty was healthy. Likewise there are other successful D-Lines (the Titans and Bears come to mind) that have an even mix of draftees, free agents and/or trades. Throw in that that despite your statement that runningbacks can be taken anytime, two of the five teams you cite as examples to follow have starting RBs that were first round picks (Chargers and Patriots).

Bottom line: There’s no one formula to a successful DL, or a successful team.

Regardless, it’s a good discussion.

Moving to the Panthers, any and all draft discussions need to be divided at 2006 when Tony Softli took off and Don Gregory took over. Also worth noting who we already had, what free agents came along and other factors.

Pre 2006:

Starting in 2002, while I'd agree it was a no-brainer on Peppers, I think it's still up in the air how it'll turn out (leaning negative, despite his high pick status). Worth noting that Al Wallace was also acquired in 2002 via trade in exchange for Jay Williams (a smart move). Also got Kemp Rasmussen undrafted. He was a decent reserve/special teamer through 2005. Sean Gilbert was around for part of 02 also (not that it mattered much).

In 2003, the team had Peppers, Rucker, Buckner and Jenkins starting with Wallace and Shane Burton as backups. Kavika Pittman came along later (wound up hurt via a dirty block by Little Ugly Keenan McCardell). DL wasn't a big need position in the draft so drafting Moorehead as a project in the fifth was an okay move. Overall, he had his moments and did all right (as fifth round picks go). Pretty hard to argue with the quality of that lineup.

Next year In 04, we had pretty much the same group minus Shane Burton and Jordan Carstens was added as an undrafted guy. That move later turned out to be way more beneficial than anyone thought at the time when Kris Jenkins got hurt. In the preseason Brentson Buckner said undrafted guy Omari Jordan would turn out to be a star (he didn’t).

In 05, Kris Jenkins was back from injury and we looked deeper with Carstens having shown he could play. Buckner was getting up there and a successor was needed, but he looked to have one more good year. Atiyyah Ellison was taken in the colossal MCF that was the 2005 Panthers draft and proceeded to suck and get cut.

Still, at this point defensive line was considered a strong point, even after Jenkins was lost in a first game disaster. Buckner and Carstens did well enough, as did Peppers, Rucker and Wallace (as a reserve). Sixth rounder Jovan Haye only made it into two games and did okay but didn't look like anything special. And the team as a whole had a decent season, going to the NFC championship.

In the course of things, a not terribly fond goodbye was waved to Tony Softli and Don Gregory took charge.

2006 through last year:

In 2006, Buckner was let go, but Ma’ake Kemoeatu and Damione Lewis were picked up as free agents. Along with Peppers, an aging but still decent Rucker, Carstens, the return (again) of Jenkins, an emerging Kindal Moorehead, and a late round pick expected to be a project in Stanley McClover, the picture was still fairly rosy looking. Tony Brown, Jovan Haye and Dave Ball all come to camp but what looked like a glut at the position meant we didn't keep them.

Unfortunately, Rucker started hitting the wall, Kemo needed time to adjust, Carstens got sick and Mike Trgovac really started to go downhill as a DC. Add to that picture an offense that’s not doing well thanks to lost linemen and the picture goes from rosy to rancid fast.

Next year, the 2007 draft netted Charles Johnson while Gary Gibson and Otis Grigsby came along as street free agents. Kindal Moorehead still looked like he could contribute in the offseason wasn’t special in season. Al Wallace was let go while Mike Rucker stuck around a year too long and Johnson got banged up more than once. As in 2006, the defense suffered some from offensive problems, this time due to the loss of Delhomme. Trgovac’s schemes and calls continued to get softer. Not a good year, but Johnson looked like he had promise.

Following in 2008, it looked like more retooling was needed. Kindal Moorehead got a free agent deal from the Falcons. Tyler Brayton, Darwin Walker and Ian Scott were picked up in free agency while Nick Hayden and Hilee Taylor were drafted with low picks. McClover walked, having not been memorable for much other than a cool nickname. Kemo and Lewis both improved and Brayton turned out to be better than expected. Still, Mike Trgovac’s bend but don’t break scheme continued to suck and injuries late in the year took their toll.

The Present:

For the record, I’m not being a Fox apologist here, but I am going to be fair.

Right now, the jury’s still out on Johnson, Hayden, Taylor and Brown. Leonard looked decent before he got hurt. Who knows at this point whether Sunny (geez, what a name) Harris could surprise? Brayton looks like a good pickup (we've turned other team's trash into our treasure too) and Peppers is still an enigma. Injuries at DT are biting us on the rump. Could we have been a little deeper? Sure, but in fairness no one really could have foreseen the extreme situation we’re in now.

Bottom Line: Defensive line is one of those spots where Fox seems to prefer free agents to draft picks. And while it’s weak right now, he’s had an overall decent record of solid units. It’s only the last few years that things have started to go downhill, and even there some parts couldn’t have been foreseen.

This coming offseason though, high picks and/or free agent pickups definitely need to be used on DL. That ship has gone off course and needs to be righted. I feel positive about coach Brian Baker, but better talent would help him out a lot.

[Matt Foley]

As the token Rams fan on this board, let me just say that spending top picks on defensive linemen, even highly regarded ones, is not automatically the answer. The Rams have tried over and over again to find a difference maker, and none of them have panned out. And every one of them was highly regarded by Kuiper and every other draftnik out there. It's like the Lions and wide receiver....sometimes a team just develops a black hole at one position.

[Cyberjag]

Mr Scot wins this round handily.

[thennek]

Great post by Mr. Scot.

I would add in 2008: The Panthers traded Kris Jenkins (argueably the Panthers best d-lineman..better than Peppers) and replaced him with a situational player in D. Lewis. This was a huge hole that the Panthers did not address in 2008 or 2009, and the main reason why DT is a glaring weakness on this team. You can't replace a guy like Jenkins with Ian Scott, Nick Hayden, Darwin Walker, Cory Irvin, D. Lewis and etc.