Panthers 2nd best in league with rookie corners...

[KB_fan]

8 hours ago, Zithers said:

would have been more interesting if you looked at PFF and FO stats since rivera became coach. AV is a pretty useless stat.

I don't have access to PFF premium stats, so I couldn't really use much at PFF, unfortunately.

Does FO rank players?  I thought they mostly ranked teams offense and defense using DVOA, etc.

I'm by no means claiming this is the best criteria on which to judge rookie effectiveness, but it's one method.  I know AV has it's limits and it by no means is everyone's favorite stat, but it's what I had available, especially as I had already been looking at Panthers total AV for every season, it was easy enough to add in data for rookie AV.

I'd love to read other analyses using different methodologies.  I'm pretty new to crunching football data.  Very much still learning what data is meaningful and what isn't.  I welcome feedback and constructive criticism.

[CPantherKing]

Under Rivera...

Josh Norman starting as a rookie hurt the defense (as well as Nakamura). He was later benched that season and served all of 2013 in Rivera's dog house even though the Panthers could have used him in the playoffs.

The 2013 rookie duo of Melvin White and Robert Lester were picked apart in the playoffs by Kaepernick. The secondary once again held the defense back and allowed Kaepernick to pass at will moving the 49ers down the field. We all know Kaepernick cannot pass well.

The 2014 rookie duo of Bene Benwikere and Tre Boston were abused by Russell Wilson leading to another playoff loss and a secondary that was the Achilles heel of a strong front 7. They were directly responsible for the first 3 TDs scored through the air by the Seahawks. Melvin White did help out by replacing an injured Bene who was hesitant and got run over by Luke Wilson for a big gain to set up the TD. Then when Melvin replaced Bene, Luke Wilson caught the ball on him to score the TD. There is a reason Melvin White is no longer in Carolina and was not on a team for all of last season.

It was great to be rookie free in the secondary in 2015.

The front 7 will be strong again in 2016, but the return of the rookie secondary will once again be their downfall. I have yet to see a secondary filled with rookies/inexperience come up big when it matters.

[KB_fan]

49 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

It was great to be rookie free in the secondary in 2015.

Agree with this.

I'm not trying to claim starting rookies in the secondary is ideal.  I don't really like it, personally.  I do view it as a short-term set back that I hope will result in long term good if the rookies get their feet under them and become solid affordable players for 4 years.  

I think we'll be ok because of our defense strength as a whole, the excellence of our LBs especially, and our scheme, but it's certainly a risk the FO is taking, no doubt about it.

Rookies production and value is generally MUCH lower than veteran players production and value, especially at certain positions.  So of course, all things being equal, you'd prefer a good vet to start.

All this article says is that Panthers have gotten considerably above average production from rookie CBs over the years compared to other teams.   It doesn't deny that they've at times weakened our defense or been badly beaten on some plays, perhaps even cost us games.  

I'm an optimist, sure, but I'm not blind to the reality that starting rookies often leads to less wins.

Update: 

I don't have the data handy right now to be able to compare AV for players by position and years of experience, but I can give some stats on AV and Age range for all the NFL players (on team 53 man rosters during the season) for 2015.

There's a clear improvement in AV as players age, showing a clear survivorship bias.  The bad players get weeded out as players age.  Those who survive on NFL rosters into their 30s are the best at what they do....

Average AV for all NFL players on team rosters in 2015 (N = 1982), by age

Avg AV    Age range

2.7	21 - 25
3.8	26 - 30
4.4	31 - 35
5.6	36 - 40

 

[Khyber53]

Okay, so I have a question that might be an underlying fact in this. Over the years, particularly during the Fox and Rivera years, what kind of continuity have we had with DB coaches and our scouting personnel?

I think that might be the biggest factor, if we've got long term service out of both groups. If you've got great coaches for the position and you have wise scouts that look for willingness to be coached in potential players, you can develop a great group.

I still think that the traditional thought that our defensive line greatly improves to performance of our defensive back play is probably the biggest factor, but that other wrinkle might have some merit...

 

[KB_fan]

20 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Okay, so I have a question that might be an underlying fact in this. Over the years, particularly during the Fox and Rivera years, what kind of continuity have we had with DB coaches and our scouting personnel?

Interesting question.  Hopefully someone else here can answer.  This isn't something I know much about.

[KB_fan]

Here is a nicer version of that little table I posted in response to CPantherKing.

Only the good survive...

[KB_fan]

Oh, but look at this.... this is why data analysis addicts me so... you never know what you might find:

So rookies generally play less well than vets.... but in 2015 Panthers rookies played better than most rookies.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Running statistics since 1995 has absolutely no bearing on our team.  We have undergone so many coaching, management, and personnel changes, any correlations are likely circumstantial.

[KB_fan]

14 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins PhD said:

Running statistics since 1995 has absolutely no bearing on our team.  We have undergone so many coaching, management, and personnel changes, any correlations are likely circumstantial.

Well in that case you would expect the rooke Avg AVs for each team to be very similar.

The reason I ran the query to cover that period (beside Panthers' 21 seasons) is that there are only a few rookie CBs for each team per year.

I can run it from 2011 - 2015 if you like, but then you risk data being skewed by one or two players...

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

22 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Well in that case you would expect the rooke Avg AVs for each team to be very similar.

The reason I ran the query to cover that period (beside Panthers' 21 seasons) is that there are only a few rookie CBs for each team per year.

I can run it from 2011 - 2015 if you like, but then you risk data being skewed by one or two players...

I understand why you did, and that their likely isn't a good solution.  But there are far too many confounding variables with this team since 1995 to assume that any trend, relationship, or correlation holds much merit.

[KB_fan]

2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins PhD said:

Running statistics since 1995 has absolutely no bearing on our team.  We have undergone so many coaching, management, and personnel changes, any correlations are likely circumstantial.

Ok, so you got me curious...  I ran the stats for 2011 - 2015.   Panthers drop to 10th place, but still well above average.

The sample size drops from 654 players to 173 players.   173 players or 5 or 6 per team doesn't sound so bad, but still, this much smaller sample size creates problems.  

Look at Arizona.   4 rookie CBs for them in this period.   1 was Patrick Peterson.  He accounted for 20 of the 22 total points of AV.  Take him out and they'd drop way way way down the list.    Or the Jets... only 2 rookie CBs in this period.

Now of course, what they did with their CBs counts.  I'm not saying you should discount Patrick Peterson, just realizing that with a small sample, 1 extraordinarily good or bad player can really skew the averages. 

 

[d-dave]

@Kb_fan... You're statistical analysis is inspiring!

Great article!

[Randolph Panther]

My question is can we expect or hope that one of these rookie corners steps in and does a good job.  If so, which one of the three would have the upper hand.

[KB_fan]

42 minutes ago, Randolph Panther said:

My question is can we expect or hope that one of these rookie corners steps in and does a good job.  If so, which one of the three would have the upper hand.

Having not seen any of them in person, I'm not sure I can say much.

Jeremy seems pretty positive about Bradberry in his latest article about training camp predictions.  "looks like a Josh Norman clone" in terms of his size / frame...

Worley has benefitted from tougher competition in his college career...

It will be very interesting to see which of these two ends up gaining the confidence of our coaches.  I'm just glad that with the two of them drafted together, along with Sanchez, they'll hopefully really push one another to excel / bring out the best in one another.