Panthers 2nd best in league with rookie corners...

[KB_fan]

14 minutes ago, caatfan said:

But you did go way above and beyond your duty as a Panther fan and even as a stat expert. Great work! We're lucky to have you on the Huddle. 

Thanks.

It's a fun hobby for me.  I think it flows out of having practically totally ignored football for 20 years...  There's all this pent up curiosity.  One research question or interesting analysis so easily leads to another.

This article actually spun off of some other research I was doing on roster retention and win %.  (which I haven't yet written anything about...)

I had looked at the 2015 total AV for the Panthers roster and how much AV we lost.  So I then wondered how much added AV it was realistic to expect from 2016 roster additions, including the new rookies.  So that got me wondering about average AV for rookies by position for the Panthers.... then I wondered how the Panthers rookie CBs compared with other teams....

Needless to say I was very pleasantly surprised with the results I got from my research!

[ThPantherFan]

KB_fan is going to be a valuable asset.  Hmmmmm, I think I like this kid.

[caatfan]

18 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

It's a fun hobby for me.  I think it flows out of having practically totally ignored football for 20 years... 

When you take on a hobby you sure go whole hog. 

 

21 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

This article actually spun off of some other research I was doing on roster retention and win %.  (which I haven't yet written anything about...)

Gotta save something for later. 

Your stat history for the Panthers w/rookie CBs makes me feel better about the upcoming season. Let's hope the good numbers continue.

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, caatfan said:

When you take on a hobby you sure go whole hog.

It helps that where I'm based in Africa there are not a whole lot of recreational options.  Basically the football stats geek stuff I'm doing has taken the place of a heavy reading habit.  In 2013 and 2014 I was reading something like 90 books a year...!

[Montsta]

5 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

It helps that where I'm based in Africa there are not a whole lot of recreational options.  Basically the football stats geek stuff I'm doing has taken the place of a heavy reading habit.  In 2013 and 2014 I was reading something like 90 books a year...!

My hobbies include drinking bourbon and making bad decisions. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

great read. thanks

[KB_fan]

15 minutes ago, Montsta said:

My hobbies include drinking bourbon and making bad decisions.

No bourbon here...  but yeah, I'm good at making bad decisions too.

 

[SCP]

 

[Nate Dogg]

I bet @KB_fan is very good at fantasy football. Want to help me compose my draft strategy this year? =]

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, Nate Dogg said:

I bet @KB_fan is very good at fantasy football. Want to help me compose my draft strategy this year? =]

You would think I would love it, but actually for some odd reason it doesn't interest me at all.  Maybe some year... but for now I have enough fun watching and analyzing the real teams on the field.

[KB_fan]

I want to throw out a few more ideas on this topic here about rookies and how one evaluates their success, because there's so little consensus on how to evaluate rookie performance.

Back when I was doing a lot of pre-draft analysis, I came across a few articles which attempted to analyze the impact of players drafted at different positions.  Is it better to take a QB, an OT, or a CB in the first round, etc?  What is the risk that player will bust....

Here are two links for anyone who wants to dig into this topic more deeply:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2027100-which-position-presents-the-biggest-leap-for-nfl-draft-prospects

The Bleacher Report article is particularly interesting in that it looks not only at rookie season success, but also their success in continuing years, and if that analysis is accurate, CBs have a pretty high "one and done" rate - some flash in their rookie year, but are never heard from much again.  But they also have the lowest "total washout" rate.

Here are the 5 "rookie career paths" B/R presents

Quote

 

Let's define five different career development paths and see what proportion of each position's top rookies followed that path.

We'll have "instant impact" players. They played at an above-average level as rookies and again in at least one of the other two years. These are the players every team wants; they're both quick fixes and long-term solutions.

Then, the "one and done" players, those who managed one good season in their first or second year but didn't follow it up. These players step in, start and make plays but typically don't become long-term solutions.

The next category is "quick developers," those who didn't play like quality starters as rookies, but did in their second and third season. They may not have exactly plugged the hole they were drafted to fill in year one, but they became vital in the medium and long term.

Then we have "slow developers," those who follow a more traditional learning curve. These players only contributed one above-average season, and it was their third in the league.

Finally, we have the "washout" group; these players didn't have a single season as a decent starter or impact rotational player in any of their first three years. Some of these players eventually caught on (hello, Aaron Rodgers), but most of them didn't.

 

And then here's part of the data they present re: CBs:
 

Quote

 

Cornerback might be the position teams most excitedly overdraft on raw ability—and boy, does it show. They have a one-and-done rate of 16.7 percent, third-highest overall. 

Despite this, cornerbacks have an advantage nearly every other position group doesn't: a natural way to ease players into the position, with a myriad of defined roles and substitution packages. Their slow-developer group is by far the biggest at 21.2 percent.

 

 

Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

 

A whopping 37.9 percent of cornerbacks taken in the first two rounds over this period didn't play well in their first season—but turned it on in year two, year three or both.

Perhaps the willingness of NFL teams to draft cornerbacks on athletic ability and let them develop results in the lowest washout rate of any position group, just 12.1 percent.

 

 

 

 

Anyway.... food for thought.   But to be honest, right now I'm not too worried what Bradberry, Worley & Sanchez will do in years 2 and 3 of their careers.  I'm focused on the here and now and 2016 in hopes we'll be back in the Super Bowl in Feb and hoisting the Lombardi!

[Mother Grabber]

I just got an ad for Cremation Planning. WTF?

[ladypanther]

KB is a savant.

[Zithers]

would have been more interesting if you looked at PFF and FO stats since rivera became coach. AV is a pretty useless stat.