Contract negotiations with Kurt Coleman

[KSpan]

4 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Lets remember that Gettleman has never been a GM before anywhere.  This is his first gig as a GM.  At the Giants he was the head of pro personnel which was largely a scouting position which is why he is so good at spotting talent.  He didnt negotiate contracts or do many of the things he is doing now.  So with all the success he has had it would be normal for him to get a big head and think he has the formula for success and perhaps get filled with hubris.  Lets be real here, do you think he got anything like the attention and accolades at the Giants as he did has here.

The truth is that everyone talks about the cap now as if it would be hard to fit these guys unnder the cap and it really wouldnt if you remember one thing.  The cap hit on a 4 or 5 year contract is often small in year 1 and sometimes 2 given that the signing bonus serves as the largest majority of the first year salary.  And since the signing bonus is prorated over the life of the contract, a signing bonus of 20 million on a 5 year contract only counts as 4 million toward the cap that year.  So if his first year actual salary is 3 million, for example, his cap hit would be only 7 million even though he received in cash 23 million.  Cam's contract may have averaged 21 million a year but his cap hit in 2015 was  around 14 million and even this year is 19.5 million.  So my point is you can pay KK 14 million a year but his cap hit in 2017 could be as little as 8 or 9 million.  That is the advantage of a long term contract.  If we franchise him for 14 million that is all on the cap hit right away which would cost more up front but obviously saves a signing bonus and no dead money going forward. 

I agree that a from line of Ealy, Star, Butler and Short would be awesome.  With Butler's speed I could see him lining up at the DE spot at times as well.  Imagine Butler and Short lined up next to each other rushing the quarterback on third down.

This right here was a big reason that Carolina ended up in cap hell and why teams like NO are currently in it. I'm not saying that Gettleman is perfect or that we need to agree with every move that he makes, but the reality is that the teams that consistently win (NE, GB, Baltimore, Pitt, etc.) rely on the draft and on cheaper players that perform well in their roles. The one thing DG hasn't done though is make that strategic move for a big piece (e.g. Dumervil in Baltimore, Revis in NE, etc.) and I do feel like that time needs to be sooner rather than later.

[panthers55]

3 hours ago, panthers1234 said:

I don't think DG gives a fug about sending a message that he is a tough guy. He is not that kind of person who would do that. He clearly thought that extending other core players was worth more than giving all that money to one player for one year. Keep in mind we extended Oher and Kalil using the money we freed up from Josh. He keeps saying this the ultimate team game so it makes sense to not drop a ton of money on one player and it is position he does not value. Cam + Luke got paid because they are cornerstones for this team for the next decade also top 10 players in the NFL. Josh does not fall into this category. He is thinking ahead and he knows that other contracts will be coming up such as KK, Star, Kelvin, Coleman, etc. Everyone will want to get paid and he is taking a step back now to help the team take 2 steps forward in the future. 

He said as much in the media.  So dont say he is not that kind of person because he already did the tough guy act in an interview. And you guys just dont seem to understand the difference between cap hit and salary.  And no we didnt use the money we would have used on Josh on Oher and Kalil since the money we would have spent on Josh was 2016 money and the extensions on Oher and Kalil dont hit until 2017. Oher was already counting 4.5 million against the cap this year and next year it will be 7 million so the net difference is only 2.5 million.  With Kalil his cap hit will go down from 11 million this year to 8 next year so we are net going to be the same this year as next.  So the cap hit for those guys is a wash.  And we have 30 million in cap space with both guys included. So including no cap increase next year with 47 guys signed our cap hit is expected to be around 124,000,000 with a cap of 155 million. (includes the 7 million for Oher) which are not on the books at overthecap or spottrac for some reason.  Even if we had kept Josh his cap hit next year would likely have been around 10-12 million which would still have given us 20 million in addition to whatever we carried over from this year which could be 10-15 million and whatever the cap will rise in 2017.   Likely 40-45 million when you add it all together.  I love the way you gobble up the party line as if it is manna from heaven.  

[panthers55]

48 minutes ago, KSpan said:

This right here was a big reason that Carolina ended up in cap hell and why teams like NO are currently in it. I'm not saying that Gettleman is perfect or that we need to agree with every move that he makes, but the reality is that the teams that consistently win (NE, GB, Baltimore, Pitt, etc.) rely on the draft and on cheaper players that perform well in their roles.The one thing DG hasn't done though is make that strategic move for a big piece (e.g. Dumervil in Baltimore, Revis in NE, etc.) and I do feel like that time needs to be sooner rather than later.

 

 You seem to be confused in your thinking. What has caused cap hell for NO is exactly what you are proposing Gettleman do which is pay big bucks for a big piece like Dumervil or Revis in free agency.  They have done that repeatedly and it has bitten them several times. NO has largely failed to build through the draft and retain their own guys although they have more success lately. Every team uses contracts to negotiate around the cap structure. And the reason they sign long term contracts is to reduce the cap hit in year 1 or 2 versus using the franchise tag which makes it payable once the tag is signed.  Gettleman used voidable years to reduce cap hits when we were cap strapped which pushed money to later years and gave us bigger dead money cap issues when we voided the contracts and it brought us out of cap hell not further in it.  So your logic and analogies are faulty for sure.   

The issue that Gettleman is struggling with is what to do when you build through the draft and they finish their rookie contract.  Do you retain them and pay them market rate or do you simple replace them with another rookie and develop someone new.  What happens with KK will go a long way to determining where he stands on the issue.  Right now he seems to be leaning toward letting them go and replacing them with low priced vets or drafting more guys on cheap contracts.

[panthers55]

8 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

double post

 

[panthers55]

28 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Who cares if they negotiate a smaller cap hit in year 1? If a contract averages 16M (14M for Short is not likely) then the full cap hit is 16M per year. You can play around with signing bonuses but the full cap hit is the full cap hit. That's where dead money comes and that is where teams get in trouble, paying for remaining signing bonuses when the player isn't even on the team. 

If you are doing what you propose you are building for short term, you aren't building like the Pats to compete every single year Brady is the QB. The Pats got rid of Chandler Jones for the same reason we let go of Norman. They didn't want to pay him big money. Maybe you want to go all out for a few years. I think Gettleman (I agree) wants to compete every year we have Newton and I believe that will be another almost 10 years. 

That kind of attitude is why we can't discuss finances. Of course each years cap hit matters as does the guaranteed money and bonuses. The structure makes all the difference in the world. The average salary numbers can be anything you want them to be but if it isn't guaranteed it doesn't mean squat. For someone who took me to task for saying that our minimum spending floor cap was 90% of our cap by clarifying it was a rolling 4 year cap of 89.5%, it seems strange you want to ignore all the details. Each years cap is a puzzle where you have to fit the pieces together. Each person's cap number matters greatly.

And no I am a long term guy, but I think there are a lot of good reasons to retain a core group of veterans experienced in the system for continuity and locker room presence. You could make an easy case that Coleman was the most critical piece to our secondary last year. He was second only to Norman in the secondary. And KK is our best defensive linemen and it isn't close. Keeping these guys is a no brainier. I want to win now and for the next 5-10 years. Seems a 5 year contract extension to KK and a 2 or 3 year extension for Coleman puts us much further down the path and we guarantee our defensive middle stays strong. Or we go cheap and hope there isn't a drop off when we promote a backup to one of the most important roles in a MCDermott defense. A strong safety who can deliver the wood and is sound in pass defense. I like the known especially when we can afford it.

[panthers55]

34 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I am not sure I'd go as far as playing the tough guy versus just stating the obvious. His goal is to sign team friendly deals and he's not going to cave into demands. He's shown with Norman that he will move on. 

Also, I don't get your points on Kalil and Oher. They didn't have to be resigned. Norman was making next to nothing so you could be 100% argue that if you keep him at 15M (what he was asking for and got) per year then maybe Oher and Kalil aren't resigned. It's 15M in cap space and what they made before has no bearing on the decision. One could easily make he connection that as soon as Norman was rescinded Gettleman made the call to extend Kalil and Oher. 

I'm not gobbling up the party line. I want Short and I think we made a mistake waiting knowing that Cox's deal was coming. No that we missed the window I think it makes sense to play out 2016 and franchise/extend him then after you know what you have in Butler. 

That said you keep talking about all this cap space. If the guys I listed above keep playing well we don't really have all this cap space. Ealy could be $10-15M, Turner is likely $10M, Norwell is likely $5-8M, 2 of Bene/Coleman/Boston could be $5-6M, Star is likely $10M and I'm not even going to go further. Add in Short and that is $50-60M for just 7 guys we don't have under contract past 2016/2017. There are going to be guys we can't resign, but that's where Gettleman's drafting ability and compensatory picks are going to help. 

The reason you don't get me is you aren't trying to understand what I am saying so much as trying to find things to argue about. Honestly as  my signature says, I can explain it to you but can't understand it for you. Especially since you have jumped on my posts from your first one on this forum. As I said in the other post, let's not have a discussion about cap space using annual average amounts. That simplistic logic negates the whole point of how GMs build yearly rosters managing the cap. Saying a player makes this much a year and adding it all up and presenting the total as a justification for not signing other players or making comparisons on anything should be reserved for the casual fan not between supposedly knowledgeable folks on a football message board. If we can't use specifics let's drop the numbers discussion and stick to opinions only.

[The Lobo]

Hopefully we get Coleman resigned. I like this dude. Then get KK. No way we let him walk.

[KSpan]

13 hours ago, panthers55 said:

 

 You seem to be confused in your thinking. What has caused cap hell for NO is exactly what you are proposing Gettleman do which is pay big bucks for a big piece like Dumervil or Revis in free agency.  They have done that repeatedly and it has bitten them several times. NO has largely failed to build through the draft and retain their own guys although they have more success lately. Every team uses contracts to negotiate around the cap structure. And the reason they sign long term contracts is to reduce the cap hit in year 1 or 2 versus using the franchise tag which makes it payable once the tag is signed.  Gettleman used voidable years to reduce cap hits when we were cap strapped which pushed money to later years and gave us bigger dead money cap issues when we voided the contracts and it brought us out of cap hell not further in it.  So your logic and analogies are faulty for sure.   

The issue that Gettleman is struggling with is what to do when you build through the draft and they finish their rookie contract.  Do you retain them and pay them market rate or do you simple replace them with another rookie and develop someone new.  What happens with KK will go a long way to determining where he stands on the issue.  Right now he seems to be leaning toward letting them go and replacing them with low priced vets or drafting more guys on cheap contracts.

No, the Saints went out and threw big money at people in a very non-strategic manner at positions of arguably lesser importance - Byrd, Browner, Spiller, etc. The players I mentioned filled a specific need on quality trams after their rosters had been stacked with talent at other positions. Carolina's previous issue was not so much free agent signings but more in keeping all of their own players at exorbitant contract prices without backfilling through the draft (the 2009 - 2011 drafts, Cam notwithstanding, were abysmal). Cheap talent is far and away the most important ingredient to sustained success, be it drafting or finding marginal veterans.

To your point about retaining players, the bottom line is that talented teams can't afford to keep everyone; Hurney's management proves this. Decisions have to be made or else you end up in the cap hell that results from kicking the can down the total to many times. Carolina has so many quality players that there may be no choice but to let one or more of the go and rely on cheaper replacements. Cap-era NFL teams simply can't afford to have top-paid players at every position.

[panthers55]

2 hours ago, KSpan said:

No, the Saints went out and threw big money at people in a very non-strategic manner at positions of arguably lesser importance - Byrd, Browner, Spiller, etc. The players I mentioned filled a specific need on quality trams after their rosters had been stacked with talent at other positions. Carolina's previous issue was not so much free agent signings but more in keeping all of their own players at exorbitant contract prices without backfilling through the draft (the 2009 - 2011 drafts, Cam notwithstanding, were abysmal). Cheap talent is far and away the most important ingredient to sustained success, be it drafting or finding marginal veterans.

To your point about retaining players, the bottom line is that talented teams can't afford to keep everyone; Hurney's management proves this. Decisions have to be made or else you end up in the cap hell that results from kicking the can down the total to many times. Carolina has so many quality players that there may be no choice but to let one or more of the go and rely on cheaper replacements. Cap-era NFL teams simply can't afford to have top-paid players at every position.

You must have not been a Panther fan for long or you would know that we already did the big free agent signings in the late 90s and   throughout the middle 2000s under 2 GMs..  We rarely had a huge payoff worth what we paid and actually did a decent job drafting at least impact first rounders and  good value role players. The whole overpaying for our own really swung out of control with  huge contracts  for guys like Delhomme , Williams, Johnson and Stewart was actually atypical for us and represented a whole different issue which was  chasing our success in 2008 and after a poor 2009 Richardson gutting many of the vets and going cheap in anticipation of an extended lockout . The strategy failed and left us so poor in talent no one wanted to play here and we had to overpaid to keep some quality players and prove to our fans we weren't Tampa Bay. 

We were in totally different circumstances from NO who were in win now mode chasing their Superbowl win and trying to keep the window open for Brees and company. People they brought in at many positions were the guy they needed in their estimation to get over the top and go back to the Superbowl shoring up an inept defense.

So your analysis is pretty simplistic and short-sighted. Cheap talent assuming you mean finding good value in the free agent market to fill in at positions where you don't have your own drafted core on first contracts is one ingredient to success but not the most critical. Number 1 is finding a franchise quarterback like Cam. Second is finding a core of players like we did with Kalil, Kuechly, Johnson etc. To build around. These guys weren't cheap (except Johnson on his third contract). Third, draft well

for depth and critical positions like Benjamin, Norwell mixed with good value free agents who out perform their cost. Lastly have a great coaching staff who can maximize what you have and what they do best.

 

[panthers55]

46 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Ok then you just don't want to try and figure out what DG is doing. Criticizing DG and then just saying you can sign deals with big bonuses to lessen he early cap numbers ignores the problems you are creating. Simplifying the contracts to estimated amounts is the ONLY way to both sign people to deals you can afford and figure out how much money you can spend. Ironic that when I put out specific numbers you say we can't discuss specifics you point to your signature. You just give a big number which makes it look like we have a ton of cap and then ignore everything we have to worry about. I want Coleman and Short back on the team with extensions (Short way more).

I know what DG is doing and for the large majority totally agree with him. After being a fan and PSL member since 1995, I have seen the good and the bad and think he has been our best GM to date. But I know this is his first gig and he will make mistakes. I watch with keen interest as the off season unfolds. Do I have concerns about some of his recent moves? Yep. But I have no great knowledge or expertise  in this field which is why I am posting on a message board with you instead of working for the Panthers. 

 

[KSpan]

1 hour ago, panthers55 said:

You must have not been a Panther fan for long or you would know that we already did the big free agent signings in the late 90s and  under two GMs throughout the middle 2000s.  We rarely had a huge payoff worth what we paid and actually did a decent job drafting at least impact first rounders and  good value role players. The whole overpaying for our own really swung out of control with  huge contracts  for guys like Delhomme , Williams, Johnson and Stewart was actually atypical for us and represented a whole different issue which was  chasing our success in 2008 and after a poor 2009 Richardson gutting many of the vets and going cheap in anticipation of an extended lockout which again failed and left us so poor we overpaid to keep some quality players and prove to our fans we weren't Tampa Bay. 

We were in totally different circumstances from NO who were in win now mode chasing their Superbowl win and trying to keep the window open for Brees and company. People they brought in at many positions were the guy they needed in their estimation to get over the top and go back to the Superbowl shoring up an inept defense.

So your analysis is pretty simplistic and short-sighted. Cheap talent assuming you mean finding good value in the free agent market to fill in at positions where you don't have your own drafted core on first contracts is one ingredient to success but not the most critical. Number 1 is finding a franchise quarterback like Cam. Second is finding a core of players like we did with Kalil, Kuechly, Johnson etc. To build around. These guys weren't cheap (except Johnson on his third contract). Third, draf well

for depth and critical positions like Benjamin, Norwell mixed with good value free agents who out perform their cost. Lastly have a great coaching staff who can maximize what you have and what they do best.

 

Been a fan since 95 and the NFL has changed greatly since the late 90s and eatly/mid-2000s, and the contracts for the Panthers players you named are exactly what I'm talking about. I disagree about "bang for the buck" of guys like Ken Lucas, Mike Wahle, and Kemo; they were maybe slightly overpaid (though Lucas was phenomenal in 2005 and solid thereafter), but they weren't complete wastes of money like Anthony Collins in TB or Byrd in NO. Your comment about "decent job drafting and good value role players" only supports my point further - that's exactly what it takes to be good, and it's no surprise that Carolina went into the tank when their young, cheap talent dried up due to terrible drafting. If they players Hurney retained with big money at the end of his tenure (Anderson, Delhomme, etc.) had played better perhaps the team's record would have been better but the salary cap implications would have played out exactly the same. 

As far as your comment about what NO did, what do you think the Ravens did with Dumervil, NE with Revis, Seattle with Bennett and Avril, etc? They did the exact same thing, but their cap had also carefully been managed for years to accommodate those types of signings. NO had no such foresight, but Carolina's cap has been managed in a similar way. 

Your final paragraph is confusing to me, as you're saying exactly what I am. Retaining our own guys sometimes needs to be considered in the same category as a big-name signing. I really don't have anything else to say.

[panthers55]

6 minutes ago, KSpan said:

Been a fan since 95 and the NFL has changed greatly since the late 90s and eatly/mid-2000s, and the contracts for the Panthers players you named are exactly what I'm talking about. I disagree about "bang for the buck" of guys like Ken Lucas, Mike Wahle, and Kemo; they were maybe slightly overpaid (though Lucas was phenomenal in 2005 and solid thereafter), but they weren't complete wastes of money like Anthony Collins in TB or Byrd in NO. Your comment about "decent job drafting and good value role players" only supports my point further - that's exactly what it takes to be good, and it's no surprise that Carolina went into the tank when their young, cheap talent dried up due to terrible drafting. If they players Hurney retained with big money at the end of his tenure (Anderson, Delhomme, etc.) had played better perhaps the team's record would have been better but the salary cap implications would have played out exactly the same. 

As far as your comment about what NO did, what do you think the Ravens did with Dumervil, NE with Revis, Seattle with Bennett and Avril, etc? They did the exact same thing, but their cap had also carefully been managed for years to accommodate those types of signings. NO had no such foresight, but Carolina's cap has been managed in a similar way. 

Your final paragraph is confusing to me, as you're saying exactly what I am. Retaining our own guys sometimes needs to be considered in the same category as a big-name signing. I really don't have anything else to say.

Clearly we both agree on retaining our own which is exactly what I have said all along about retaining KK and Coleman. You are the one bringing in big name signings and making confusing and contradictory  statements about NO and now the Ravens. My last paragraph is what I have said all along. If that is confusing to you that is on you not a change for me. So unless there is something new here I guess I am done.

[panthers55]

11 minutes ago, stbugs said:

100% true for me as well. Those annual estimates aren't outlandish above which is why DG has a big decision on Short and likely why we won't extend him until next off season at the earliest. We could literally have 8 (including Short and ignoring Klein, he'll be gone) all-pro/premium level FAs. There is just no way we can pay top dollar for all of them.

That is true we can"t sign everyone and have to pick and choose. It is hard to argue with Gettleman's success. My issue with KK and Coleman is they are very good players in our system and worth retaining as long as they want to be here and aren't just about the money. I would like us to have consistency for the foreseeable future and see both Coleman and KK as critical pieces. I hope DG agrees and is able to sign both of them to win-win contracts.

[panthers55]

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think the toughest part with Short is just the $$$ (obviously). It's conceivable that he per year = Boston + Coleman + Norwell. It's easy for me to go with those three and Butler. That said I'd rather say goodbye to Star and pay the extra for Short but I don't know if that would work with Butler. That said I think Star is far easier to replace in the draft (NT type guys aren't drafted as high as pass rushing DTs). Dwayne Harrison got $46M for 5 years. Star will get that.

If I am bored one night after work/kids and we are still in this lull, I may take a whack at a spreadsheet with some potential numbers and see what our 2018-2019 cap looks like. We'll be good this year and 2017 because we don't need to break the bank until after 2017. 

Check overthecap.com and  spotrac.com because they already have the numbers up. But obviously the further out you go the less folks you have under contract and you won't have that much money to spend when we actually get there. 

As for Star versus Short, I would prefer Short all day. He will be expensive but like finding left tackles, finding a double digit sack under tackle  is hard to find and they command a premium price.