A closer look at top NFL contracts by position

[KB_fan]

In light of KK's contract situation and the dilemma now created for the Panthers by Fletcher Cox's massive deal in Philly, I spent some time yesterday digging around Spotrac looking at how different teams manage the cap and which teams give out the most premium contracts. 

From Spotrac, I looked at all current NFL contracts with an average annual salary of $5,000,000 or higher.  These are basically the premium players in the league.  There are 290 players earning an annual average of at least 5 million, so roughly 9 players per team with this kind of premium contract, though that number varies quite a bit by team.   (Detroit has the fewest high-contract players - only 5.  Philly has the most with 15!)  New England currently has 6 players with contracts north of 5 million. The Panthers also have 6.  Arizona has 8,  Seattle has 10, Green Bay has 12.   I may post more about teams and their salary structures later.... but for now, I want to move in a slightly different direction.

That research at Spotrac also helped me get a feel for the relative contract values for premium players at each position.   Yesterday in the thread about what value we might get for a trade for KK, there was discussion about which other positions demand really big bucks for top players, and who else we have lined up for big paydays - i.e. if we pay KK who might we NOT be able to pay, and vice versa.  The tables below help answer that question.

Here's a look at the 15 top positions in the NFL and the current highest contract amount in terms of average annual salary at each position.  A few positions are missing (FB, K, P, LS) as no player at those positions has an average annual salary of 5 million or higher.

The table is sorted by contract amount (Avg $ / year), highest to lowest.  Obviously these numbers could change any day as new record-breaking contracts get awarded to the likes of Andrew Luck or Von Miller.

(You know Josh Norman has to love being on this list - top paid player at his position in terms of average salary per year.  Good for him, but I'll really miss him in Black & Blue!   As you can see, there are no Panthers who are the top paid player at their position.  For the record, Luke is the 2nd highest-paid ILB after Clay Matthews.)  

Those figures for the top contract can be somewhat misleading, however, because sometimes there is quite a huge gap between the highest player at a position and the next one or two highest paid players.   Here's a look at the top 3 contracts for each position (by average annual salary) at each position, and the average for the top 3. 

The table is sorted in descending order by average for the top 3 players at each position.

In the far right hand column, you can see that for a few positions (most notably RB, OLB, LT, RT, G) there is a really big drop off from the top one or two contracts to the third.  Adrian Peterson makes 14 million a year.  The next highest-paid RB, Jamal Charles, makes just over 9 million.

One or two insanely high contracts CAN really distort the market for a position, as we've just seen with Fletcher Cox.  Look at these figures for the top 5 DTs in terms of average annual salary.  There's a nearly 8.5 million dollar annual difference in salary between #1 Suh  and #5 Atkins.  Where does KK's performance place him in that list? 

 

But even with the slight changes in relative position ranking based on whether you're looking at the top contract value, the top 3 contracts, or the top 10...., there is clarity and a general consensus in terms of the top 7 most-expensive positions for truly elite players:   QB, DT, DE, WR, CB, LT, OLB  This is one reason why comments like "we can't pay KK more than we pay Luke" are not so helpful because the markets for the positions are so very different. 

***

Let's broaden out the analysis a little further, looking at all players making 5 million+ per year, see which Panthers make that list, and which Panthers are coming up for contracts at various positions - who else might be competing with KK for a big payday:
 

In this table, you can see how many players at each position make an average annual salary of at least $5,000,000.  There are 290 such players in the league, and currently 6 Panthers in that group.  (Charles Johnson would have been in that group until his re-signing this offseason on a very cheap one-year contract (for $3 million).  His previous average annual salary was 12.6 million for year.  Last year he ranked as the 4th highest-paid DE based on annual average of his contract.)

Obviously, for some positions, the number of elite players with premium contracts is rarer.  All 15 of these positions have at least 10 players making an average of $5,000,000 per year.  But for Center, SS, RB, FS, RT, and, our current focus at the moment, Defensive Tackle, there are fewer than 15 elite players at each position.  But that does mean elite talent at those positions generally demands a premium.

The table is sorted by average annual contract value for the top 10 highest-paid (annual average) players at each position.   I find this helpful because it gives a good picture what our contract hits could be for upcoming contracts with potential top players at their position.

The dilemma quickly becomes obvious.  We already have 6 positions with players in the top 10 salaries at their position.  But given our roster depth, we've got more such players who need re-signing very soon.  If their play continues on a 2015-level, I'd argue that KK, Norwell and Turner all deserve top 10 money.

• KK:  about $15 million per year.
• Norwell & Turner could each command $7.5 million
• Oher might be a bargain given his good fit with our team and coaches and his age.  Maybe he is worth about $6 - 7 million per year.
• CJ, Addison & Ealy, it's a bit hard to predict, but two of these DEs could easily command $20 million between them if they play well.
• If KB turns into the star we think he can be, he'd easily be looking at $13 million per year.
• Kurt Coleman played like a top 10 safety last year.... If we want to pay him like one next year, that's another $6 - 7 million.

So for 8 of our high-level players coming up for contract renewal (only counting 2 DEs), the combined annual contract amount might total $77 million!   This doesn't even count guys like Ginn, Star, Brown, Remmers, Boston, AJ Klein, none of whom I expect to make the list of top-paid players at their positions.

If Dave can mange to negotiate new contracts for most of these players at affordable rates and keep us out of Cap Hell.... my admiration for him will be through the roof.  As had been said time and time again, the salary cap TRULY penalizes teams that draft well and develop players well.  We have an embarrassment of talent on our roster.  It's a good problem to have, but it IS a problem.  I don't see how we'll keep all of the above.  If we did, that would give us perhaps 13 - 14 players with a premium salary, compared to our current level of 6 premium salaries.  I can't see Gettleman going so wild....

That's all I have time for this morning.  Maybe later today I can post more below in terms of the various patterns regarding how teams manage their salary cap.... comparing a team like Philly with a team like New England.

[Ricky Spanish]

A great thread for those who don't understand that there is in fact a salary cap set in place making it difficult to keep every single good player you draft. 

[Jon Snow]

Great work @KB_fan , looks as if Diamond Dave has his work cut out for him to keep as many of these studs as we can afford.  There's a balance of good drafting and wise contract choices that has to be maintained to be competitive on a consistent basis.  Lucky it seems that Dave has been drafting well to help balance out the contract choices he will be forced into in the future.  Big Dave always has a plan B and I like that.

[caatfan]

21 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Here's a look at the 15 top positions in the NFL and the current highest contract amount in terms of average annual salary at each position.

Notice that NE doesn't have a player on the list either. Just like with eBay, when somebody who just has to have it, goes crazy and bids way too high on an auction, a good GM has to be willing to let a player go rather than compete with some of the teams who are fine with giving out ridiculous contracts that come back to bite 'em in the pocketbook down the road. I'm betting that we won't see a Panther become the highest paid at his position with Gettleman at GM, and I'm personally OK with that. We've had some crazy high salaries in the past and they've never paid off. 

[imminent rogaine]

Coleman played great but I don't think the demand for him would be too high. I think the league looks at it more like he is a product of a system rather than a top player  - whether that is true or not. Dave will be looking for a very team friendly deal or let him hit the road and fill him with a journeyman vet as per the usual - same with Addison. Ealy (if he continues to improve), the guards, and KB (if he returns at full health) are the ones I could see him opening up the coffers a bit for.

I'd put my money on AJ not resigning no matter what kind of money we throw at him. He is going to go somewhere that plays 4-3 and start.

edit: unless TD hangs it up, Shaq fills in, and Klein is good playing SLB. I think he wants the MLB spot somewhere.

[Snake]

I think Dave pays KK in the end. Our whole system is set up on that line being elite. KK probably will not get as long of contract as Cox though. 

[Kakarot]

Not only is Short going to get paid, but I expect KB to ball out and be one of the highest paid at his position as well when it's time to extend his contract 

[TalonNC]

What teams have the most "premium salary" players? whats the Team avg so to see where our 6 Premium Contracts fair in comparision to the other clubs in the league?

[Datawire]

These are the type of threads that keep me visiting the Huddle. Thanks KB_Fan.

[Omega Atrocity]

Great thread. No way we can keep all our guys and stay in contention. The worst part about being good, is that sometimes you lose really good players for pretty much nothing (you do get a 3rd round comp pick in the NFL at least). The Ravens and Patriots have been doing it for quite a while now, and the Seahawks the last couple of seasons as well.

[KB_fan]

21 minutes ago, TalonNC said:

What teams have the most "premium salary" players? whats the Team avg so to see where our 6 Premium Contracts fair in comparision to the other clubs in the league?

Here you go:

Just to explain a bit, the first 4 columns on the left are the number of players with contracts at each level.  E.G.  Panthers have a TOTAL of 6 players making 5 million and up.  2 of those are making over 10 million (Luke and Cam);  Cam makes an average of above 20 mil per year, so he also shows up in the 15 Mil+ and 20 Mil+ columns. 

Team names highlighted in green were 2015-2016 play off teams.

"Top 6" is the total (avg per year) of the top 6 salaries on each team.  (Actually for Detroit, it's only the top 5 salaries, as they only have 5 players making 5 million+)

"All 5Mil+" is the average annual total of all players on the team making 5 million and up.  

Franchise QB:  Since having a franchise QB under a (non-rookie) contract is such a huge factor in a team's salary structure (and also in winning), I've noted whether a team currently has a franchise QB under contract.

The last two columns show how many times the team made it to the divisional playoffs (final 8 teams) or the SB in the last 6 years.... trying to show winning consistency.  The Pats of course have made the division playoffs for 6 years straight - the gold standard right now for the rest of the league.   I tries to look for any correlation between salary structure and success, but it's quite complicated, especially as the current salary structure can change so quickly (witness Denver.... their salary structure now is nothing like it was a year ago when they had Manning and several other high price players under contract... leading them to a SB win.)

[KB_fan]

If anyone wants me to attach the spreadsheet with these data so you can play around with it, let me know, and I can do that...

[top dawg]

58 minutes ago, Kakarot said:

Not only is Short going to get paid, but I expect KB to ball out and be one of the highest paid at his position as well when it's time to extend his contract  

Interesting. 

I have alluded to the opinion before that I believe that Getty is in the same mold of Billy B when it comes to player contracts and his system (a.k.a. the Patriot way). I feel that the culture of compromise and sacrifice in order to be a part of a stronger and greater team that ultimately leads to winning is something that is instilled in players if not expressly, quite naturally just by being in an atmosphere that breeds brotherhood. Part of the philosophy is that no one player is greater or stronger than the brotherhood. I feel that Getty feels that if a player wants to be here---part of this excellence---then they will not upset the apple cart by demanding top dollars, but good money that will afford them an opportunity to stay here and be a part of this special system. 

I don't believe Gettleman is ever going to sacrifice the greater good of the team by putting more money than he feels is fair into a player, no matter who they are or whether or not they can command a greater salary on the open market. I believe that players know (or will know) that if you want to be a Panther, then you aren't going to break the bank---Gettleman's budget---to be here. 

All that being said, perhaps more in guarantees, or some other contractual benefits, may keep players like Short or Benjamin here. But, I don't believe that our culture is a fit for dudes who want to be the highest paid at their positions. Moreover, I feel that Gettleman acquires players that can adapt and be developed to fill in as contingencies in case any individual feels the need to get froggy and jump ship over a few mil per year. 

The team has already shown what it can do without Benjamin, and will show what it can do without Norman, and if it comes to it, without Short as well. Gettleman just keeps reloading the roster with talent, and some of those guys, much like Luke, TD and Olsen are going to be willing to make the sacrifice to want to be here simply because it's a great environment to be a part of in the locker room, on and off the field.

 

[KB_fan]

6 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I have alluded to the opinion before that I believe that Getty is in the same mold of Billy B when it comes to player contracts and his system (a.k.a. the Patriot way). I feel that the culture of compromise and sacrifice in order to be a part of a stronger and greater team that ultimately leads to winning is something that is instilled in players if not expressly, quite naturally just by being in an atmosphere that breeds brotherhood. Part of the philosophy is that no one player is greater or stronger than the brotherhood. I feel that Getty feels that if a player wants to be here---part of this excellence---then they will not upset the apple cart by demanding top dollars, but good money that will afford them an opportunity to stay here and be a part of this special system. 

So well stated.

I'm hoping we get there.  The Patriots (as much as I hate 'em) are pretty amazing in what they've managed to create...  We're perhaps a bit caught in between.  We're certainly well on our way to establishing that kind of special brotherhood and winning culture.  But it's new enough perhaps that some players will want to walk and chase the money...  I surely hope KK is not one of them.  We shall see.