Hedging your bets, a lesson in drafting success.

[Doc Holiday]

So, I'm seeing a lot of people on here acting with the Butler pick is a slam dunk draft pick just because Dave Gentleman drafted him, honestly I think it was the single most questionable pick of our entire draft.

Here is the big secret about the draft,  it's completely luck at times, especially when you draft as late as we did this year (30-31).  Not every draft is a 2001, or a 2014 draft class, that's why those years are special, because they are rare. Usually in any given draft there is about 15-20 day 1 starting level talents in a draft class, the rest require some level of development. Meaning, anything from 20 on is a maybe and to just goes down from there the further the draft goes on.  This is also why the Panthers drafted 3 CB's in this draft. and why drafting all those CB's is the best part of our draft this year hands down. Gettleman knows all 3 will not workout long term, he drafted 3 CB's because odds are maybe one of them will workout. and if by some miracle 2 work out? Jackpot!

Gettleman knows how to hedge bets on players development, and that's why he's been cleaning house with everyone else since coming to town.

[Saca312]

Puts things in perspective. Imo this was a weak draft class, and Dave Gettleman is increasing his odds of finding someone who can play in the backfield. Good eye-opener.

[Cary Kollins]

Butler's floor is valuable defensive line depth. His ceiling is KK Short. Not a bad pick at 30.

I made a similar point about the CBs. With the coaches Carolina has, there's reason to believe the Panthers just solidified the cornerback position for the next five years or so.

[csx]

One thing for sure is that these young DBs will push each other. 

I love the Butler pick. I think he will be a monster. I can see the logic questioning the position but not the player.

[Louie]

The part about the 3 corners is exactly what I was saying this morning. If Gettleman drafts 3 corners, I am sure one of them will work out. What if one becomes as good as Norman and the other one is a serviceable nickel corner? That is a jackpot. Add in Butler that can rush the QB to rotate with KK and Star, wow! G-man is the godfather for a reason. Other people can doubt what he is doing, but I'm not going to. He has forgotten more about football than 90% of what people know on this message board.

[CarolinaNCSU]

41 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

Butler's floor is valuable defensive line depth. His ceiling is KK Short. Not a bad pick at 30.

I made a similar point about the CBs. With the coaches Carolina has, there's reason to believe the Panthers just solidified the cornerback position for the next five years or so.

DG's post draft presser kinda cemented this idea. He basically decides to see which position group is in the most dire need, and then attacks it to fix it, often times with guys who will grow together.

First it was DT/DL (Stah, KK, Ealy), then WR (KB, Philly, Funch), and now the new CBs. The OL could be next depending on how those contracts play out over the next year or two. Plus, it helped getting a beast in Trai and lucky with Norwell/Oher/Remmers to help push the OL needs down the road.

[d-dave]

Good point about a weak draft.  With the influx of underclassmen the past few years, after the top 20ish (or less) picks, 25=50, and there's not a HUGE difference between 50 and 100...

So the lesson from Gettleman is that you get the best guys you can, no matter where they are drafted.  It's better to lose picks and get the best guys for your team instead of just some dudes that are arbitrarily considered better.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Saca312 said:

Puts things in perspective. Imo this was a weak draft class, and Dave Gettleman is increasing his odds of finding someone who can play in the backfield. Good eye-opener.

I've read that this is actually one of the deepest draft classes in years. 

• Schneider said of the seven draft classes he's seen since becoming Seattle's general manager in 2010, this one is "the most impressive one so far in terms of the sheer numbers of players." Schneider previously said that Seattle will have 200 players on its draft board compared to 130 or 140 in other years. He reiterated that there don't seem to be as many "drop-offs" as there are in other years, meaning not as many large gaps in talent between groups of players at a certain position.

[Newtcase]

I've been saying Cleveland should draft 7+ QB's for years.

[top dawg]

I can see questioning the pick in terms of drafting yet another DT,  but Getty's track record with first rounders has been a pretty good one,  so of course there is really no reason to think that Butler won't be good. 

[ShutDwn]

Quote

 Meaning, anything from 20 on is a maybe and to just goes down from there the further the draft goes on.  This is also why the Panthers drafted 3 CB's in this draft. and why drafting all those CB's is the best part of our draft this year hands down. Gettleman knows all 3 will not workout long term, he drafted 3 CB's because odds are maybe one of them will workout. and if by some miracle 2 work out? Jackpot!

 

The exact same logic could be used for the Butler pick you just questioned. 

[emhoward]

1 hour ago, Newtcase said:

I've been saying Cleveland should draft 7+ QB's for years.

Teams still care too much about how things "look". If I don't have a quarterback I'm drafting three every year til I do. Early pick, mid rounder, late rounder. Every year.

I figured by year 3, Quarterback 9, I would have found my franchise guy.

Meanwhile the Browns have been looking for a QB for a decade and a half. They draft Brandon freakin Weeden and think for some reason that they've fixed the problem smh

[Saca312]

5 hours ago, Jesse said:

I've read that this is actually one of the deepest draft classes in years. 

• Schneider said of the seven draft classes he's seen since becoming Seattle's general manager in 2010, this one is "the most impressive one so far in terms of the sheer numbers of players." Schneider previously said that Seattle will have 200 players on its draft board compared to 130 or 140 in other years. He reiterated that there don't seem to be as many "drop-offs" as there are in other years, meaning not as many large gaps in talent between groups of players at a certain position.

I'm talking about pure stand out talent type draft. No eye-popping wide receivers, QB's, or defensive players, but a lot of really consistent talent across the board. You won't get the talent of the century from this draft imo, maybe someone on the defensive side. But you will get good consistent players across the board, I agree with that.

[Fox007]

When we have two 10 sack DTs peoples balls will finally drop after all that jumping up and down with excitement.