DRAFT AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS for Players who've visited, and other key prospects

[KB_fan]

Over the past week I worked bit by bit to compile one of my potential "draft availability analysis" tables for all the prospects who have been reported to have met with / visited the Panthers, as well as some other prospects who have gotten a lot of interest / discussion here (and some who have landed at BPA for one of our picks during various mock drafts I've done).

It's a list of about 85 prospects, focused on those who could go in rounds 1 - 5 of the draft.  I didn't have time / interest to look at rounds 6 or 7.

Before I post the tables, a few notes.   This is based on 14 mock drafts I did using the fanspeak draft simulator from April 16 - 18.   THESE DRAFTS WERE DONE BEFORE THE NEWS OF THE EAGLES TRADE.  Sorry about that.   I may try to do another round of mock drafts over the weekend to see how that trade changes things...., but no guarantees as life has become very busy lately.   I used 8 different boards, prioritizing the most recent / most reliable  (NFL, CBS, Drafttek) more heavily.  I only did 5 round drafts.

In the tables below you'll see

1) player details (name, position, grade at NFL.com)

2) the average pick number at which the player was drafted in these 14 mock drafts, as well as the lowest, highest and median draft picks.

3) an percentage listing of how often the prospect was on the board when we picked. 

4) the players are grouped into "rounds" based on the AVERAGE PICK POSITION.  This DOES NOT MEAN that WE could pick the player in that round.  For instance, many players who are overwhelmingly selected in round 2 would be off the board by our pick, so if we want them, we'd have to pick them in round 1.

5) Players whose names are shaded in light blue are those who are reported to have met with / visited with the Panthers per: Ken's list in the NFL draft forum.

Hope this makes sense.... 

Short on time this morning,  but later today, I hope to resort these tables by POSITION and will post those tables later.

 

[KB_fan]

ROUND 1 Prospects:

[KB_fan]

ROUND 2 Prospects:

[KB_fan]

ROUND 3 Prospects:

[KB_fan]

ROUND 4 Prospects:

[KB_fan]

ROUND 5 Prospects:

[The Lobo]

Great info as usual thank you. I would love for Dodd to be there at 30. That was my prediction last month I hope it happens. To be honest, I would love any of those picks. Do you know if hunter Henry has visited or anything?

edit: right when I posted this you posted more players. My bad

[KB_fan]

Ah one other note, within each round, players are sorted in order of increasing availability WITHIN that round - just to make it a little easier to follow the table and see who might likely be there at our pick in that round.

[London Loves Luke]

Great info, this is exactly how I imagine our draft board is set up in the war room.

[manu4t]

This is really incredible from a metrics standpoint. Great work!

[SOJA]

KB_fan this is great thank you so much man

[KB_fan]

Thanks for the positive feedback.  One other thing I forgot to note... Since I was only doing 5 round drafts, whenever a player was not drafted in rounds 1 - 5 I entered pick 176 (the first pick of round 6) as their draft position.  So that artificially skews the draft position average for some of the later prospects on that list (making it seem as if they're drafted higher than they likely will be).  Since we don't have a 6th round pick, and we pick 2nd to last in the 7th, I figured it didn't really matter much as to exactly when in the 6th or 7th a player is likely to be drafted.

When I post the tables for individual positions later today, 'll try to show the details of all 14 mock drafts, and it will be obvious which players were not drafted during round 1- 5 for a given mock draft.  You can also see the discrepancies in how various players are ranked between certain boards.  It's crazy that a player like Carl Nassib gets ranked and picked in the top of the 2nd round (pick 35) in some drafts, and yet on other boards he was there at our pick #168 in the 5th round!

[TheSpecialJuan]

This is terrific. 

[KB_fan]

Nuts, somehow I lost a comment I was writing that started to give a breakdown of how all 14 mock drafts turned out in terms of picks for the Panthers.  I'll try to recreate that later.  (I'd gotten through drafts 1 - 7).

Here at least is an idea of the players who I was able to pick in rounds 1 - 5 (more or less using a  BPA strategy) most often:

• DE  Kevin Dodd - 5 drafts
• TE  Hunter Henry - 4 drafts
• OT  Jack Conklin - 3 drafts
• CB Harlan Miller - 3 drafts
• CB Cyrus Jones - 3 drafts
• RB CJ Prosise - 3 drafts
• OT Joe Haeg - 3 drafts
• RB Derrick Henry - 2 drafts
• DE/DT Jonathan Bullard - 2 drafts
• WR Sterling Shepard - 2 drafts
• OLB / S Su'A Cravens - 2 drafts
• DT Sheldon Day - 2 drafts
• DE Matt Judon - 2 drafts
• CB Daryl Worley - 2 drafts
• S KJ Dillon - 2 drafts

Some of these players would have been also available to pick in other drafts if I had targeted them specifically instead of mostly picking BPA.  (For instance Kevin Dodd was available to us at pick 30 in 12 of 14 drafts, but I only picked him as BPA in 5 of the drafts.)

Anyway, hopefully this gives some idea of the type of players I was seeing fairly frequently available to us as BPA in these mocks.