Post-Norman compensatory pick outlook

[jdpanther5]

UPDATE: My estimation was actually a bit conservative. I expected Josh would sign for a greater APY than Janoris Jenkins but below Malik Jackson. Assuming no more than $750K is wrapped up in workout bonuses and/or incentives, he should actually exceed Jackson's salary as well. That would project to next year's 99th pick, rather than the 100th like I estimated. 

Original post: So in looking at the current projections for next year's compensatory selections, it stands to reason that the Panthers could add a 4th pick in the top 100 selections of the 2017 draft. First, a bit of a recap...

As it stands right now, the Panthers have gained two UFAs (Gradkowski, Boykin) and lost two (Nortman, Velasco). Based on the projected round values, Boykin and Velasco's minimum contracts would not qualify at all, leaving just Gradkowski and Nortman. Even though Nortman's average salary ($2.2M) was double Gradkowski's ($1.05M), they both project as 7th round values* based on the top (Eric Pears $2.3M) and bottom (Kevin Vickerson $950K) values that fell into the 7th-round range last season. Though it's worth noting that teams weren't given picks for Pears, Vickerson, and everyone between, because they all fell outside the awarded 32 picks. 

*Again these are all estimates. Nortman is firmly in the 7th-round range, and Boykin is out of it, but the 7th round to unqualifying line is somewhere around where Gradkowski and Velasco ($965K) fall. They both may count, both may not, but early estimates have Gradkowski in and Velasco out. Then there are guys like Amini and Cotchery who could impact the formula should they sign by May 12. These are all the difference in gaining an extra 7th, but Norman obviously invokes much bigger implications...

Back to that 100th pick. With all those aforementioned players, the Panthers will at worst break even on compensatory players, meaning that there won't be any picks that cancel out the Norman comp as long as they don't sign any other UFAs. Looking back to last year's picks, the lowest valued third round pick was awarded for Julius Thomas, who signed for an APY of $9.1M. The round barriers seem to slightly rise each year, so this year the threshold may be around $9.25M or so. 

Based on this, it seems pretty likely that Norman will at least net a third round pick, the question is how high. As of now, there are 8 contracts that have at least a chance of netting their former teams an extra third round pick starting at pick 97:

Brock Osweiler: $18,000,000

Olivier Vernon: $16,750,000

Malik Jackson: $14,250,000

Janoris Jenkins: $12,400,000

Kelechi Osemele: $11,200,000

Sean Smith: $9,250,000

Bruce Irvin: $9,000,000

Alex Mack: $9,000,000

Based on our earlier estimation, the Irvin and Mack contracts would actually fall to round 4, but they're at least close. Of course, the most noteworthy name here is Janoris Jenkins, whose $12.4M contract would seemingly be the baseline for Norman's upcoming deal. Should Norman get a deal between Jackson and Jenkins', he'd have the 4th-highest APY among qualifying UFAs. This of course means we would net the 4th-highest comp. pick in 2017, at pick 100.

To summarize: if Norman's new deal exceeds $9.25M APY, we're likely to get an extra 3rd next year; and if it exceeds $12.4M, then the pick would be number 100.

[chknwing]

what norman comp?  I dunno someone on here need to go dig up the rules on comp picks and rescinded tags. I'm thinking its a no

[Growl]

I still don't see the logic in doing this now. The guy wasn't going to miss playing football this year. If it had happened earlier where we had time to make major additions its be different, but that's not the case. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Yes!!!

[jdpanther5]

DG mentioned the comp. pick factor during his press conference this morning. Not just "maybe we'll get a pick" but that he's expecting one for Josh after Nortman/Velasco and Gradkowski/Boykin cancel out. 

[Growl]

19 minutes ago, jdpanther5 said:

DG mentioned the comp. pick factor during his press conference this morning. Not just "maybe we'll get a pick" but that he's expecting one for Josh after Nortman/Velasco and Gradkowski/Boykin cancel out. 

Possible he's frustrated by the lack of picks this year and is ensuring we've got more next year. May have been one of the driving forces in signing off on it.

 

Which is stupid, BTW, given the value some mid round player is going to get us doesn't even approach what we'll have with Norman in an important season.

[Toker Smurf]

44 minutes ago, jdpanther5 said:

DG mentioned the comp. pick factor during his press conference this morning. Not just "maybe we'll get a pick" but that he's expecting one for Josh after Nortman/Velasco and Gradkowski/Boykin cancel out. 

Thanks, was just about to look for this (the offsets).

[JawnyBlaze]

The rescinded tag shouldn't have anything to do with it.  If Norman were to sign with another team, he'd be a FA lost and therefore qualify. 

[Bartin]

2 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

The rescinded tag shouldn't have anything to do with it.  If Norman were to sign with another team, he'd be a FA lost and therefore qualify. 

Unless he doesn't sign until after the cutoff date which used to be June 1st but was moved up to like May 12th this year. He'll probably sign before then but that isn't really that far off and could happen if he wants to take a few visits.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Pretty good thread on our comp status.

[panther4life]

9 minutes ago, Bartin said:

Unless he doesn't sign until after the cutoff date which used to be June 1st but was moved up to like May 12th this year. He'll probably sign before then but that isn't really that far off and could happen if he wants to take a few visits.

Good call on the may 12th deadline. I am sure that played a factor in the decision to pull the plug now vs waiting it out and potentially costing ourselves a comp pick

[jdpanther5]

My estimation was actually a bit conservative. I expected Josh would sign for a greater APY than Janoris Jenkins but below Malik Jackson. Assuming no more than $750K is wrapped up in workout bonuses and/or incentives, he should actually exceed Jackson's salary as well. That would project to next year's 99th pick, rather than the 100th like I estimated. 

[DelhommesTheMan]

Which is also why we haven't signed a vet to fill the position and won't until after May 12th.  We must ensure we receive that comp pick as it's basically trading Norman to the Skins for a 3rd.  We may even for all we know have an agreement in principle with someone like Cromartie but won't make it official until after the 12th. 

[The Lone Panther]

I have a feeling we're going to trade our 3rd round pick for next year to move up in the 2nd for this years draft, probably to a team like Tennessee who has nine picks.