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Carolina Panthers will target offense in round one


Jeremy Igo
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Just now, Growl said:

Here's where the typical revisionist history comes into play as the apologists assemble to arms

 

Do you even understand the words you are typing?  Why do I need to revise anything or for that matter apologize?  There is a clear history backing up my point. 

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1 hour ago, Panthro said:

Rawls is pretty good. None of it matters if their oline doesn't get better. I cannot see Seattle drafting him with all of their other needs. 

They also have a huge hole on their D with the loss of Irvin who was such an X-factor against us multiple times.  Don't underestimate the loss of Mebane either.  

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11 minutes ago, nctarheel0619 said:

I think you're missing the point.  Drafting him was not a position of need which Igo stated he was.  It was a future pick.  In essence, Thomas Davis announced his eventual replacement in the draft.  Not a "position of need" pick by any means.  

Is a great asset and a need not the same thing? Not saying it was an immediate need, saying it was a luxury need, I mean we are kinda stacked lol.

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3 minutes ago, Snake said:

Do you even understand the words you are typing?  Why do I need to revise anything or for that matter apologize?  There is a clear history backing up my point. 

The history you speak is chock full of Hurney driving home the importance of BPA, whether in pre draft pressers or as a defense for not taking the players he was "supposed" to take afterwards, and every sheep on this board taking it as a parchment of sacred knowledge  still persists to this day

 

" but but Hurney=bad and Gettlemagic=good so there's no way he could've actually been doing that because BPA never fails!

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4 minutes ago, Matt62881 said:

Is a great asset and a need not the same thing? Not saying it was an immediate need, saying it was a luxury need, I mean we are kinda stacked lol.

No, it's not the same thing at all.  It's like when the Browns picked Tim Couch, or Johnny Manziel.  It's a position of need over other players being better that they could've picked.  Shaq was a luxury pick.  

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The biggest issue facing our society today (slightly exaggerated) are people who actually believe that the people doing press conferences for their favorite team actually believe the things they're saying and aren't just echoing age old tropes in an effort to get back to their lives as fast as they possibly can, which means every time legitimate draft discussion comes up on this board, you have some pseudointellectual dork saying "breh? Why all these words and great analysis? We just gonna do the BPA bro! Heh! Why should I worry when we doing the BPA"

Gettleman just took another player at a position of need.

Edited by Growl
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Gettleman does follow a strategy closely resembling BPA, but he also pretty clearly utilizes a "horizontal draft board," as some refer to it, to rank the players. Every year he makes comments that indicate it isn't as cut-and-dried as taking the top player on a ranked list. "We considered taking a receiver in nearly every round (2014)" comes to mind. 

He won't sacrifice talent for need, but if multiple players are ranked similarly he's probably gonna pick the one that addresses the need. Star at 14 was absolutely the best player, one who had been considered a top 2 pick prior to his heart condition. Kelvin probably ranked similarly with players at other positions and the need broke the tie, so to speak. Shaq was an absolute luxury pick at LB, but the rumor was he became the highest remaining grade the second Arizona took Humphries so he was "BPA."

I also don't think 3 years is enough time to discover a pattern between offense and defense, especially when those are the only two (reasonable) options. 

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3 hours ago, Growl said:

The biggest issue facing our society today (slightly exaggerated) are people who actually believe that the people doing press conferences for their favorite team actually believe the things they're saying and aren't just echoing age old tropes in an effort to get back to their lives as fast as they possibly can, which means every time legitimate draft discussion comes up on this board, you have some pseudointellectual dork saying "breh? Why all these words and great analysis? We just gonna do the BPA bro! Heh! Why should I worry when we doing the BPA"

Gettleman just took another player at a position of need.

Especially true when it comes to the draft when they hold their cards as close to their chest as possible publicly. Smart thing to do. 

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3 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

With the NFL Draft just a few weeks away, the Panthers are finalizing their draft board and preparing for their own first set of internal mock drafts. 

In round one, I feel the Panthers will be targeting offensive players. Yes, yes, I know, right now you are screaming "Best Player Available". That is a platitude that gets spread around far to often. Ever notice how over the last three Dave Gettleman drafts, the round 1 selection was also in an area of great need? Funny how that works.

Gettleman has said in the past that first round picks need to contribute their first year. This doesn't exactly make sense if the "BPA" mantra is true. What if the BPA is a quarterback? Or a middle linebacker? Or one of many positions on the team that a rookie has no chance of real playing time.  

In 2016, the Carolina Panthers first round selection has a much higher chance of contributing on offense rather than defense.

Yes, the Panthers do need another pass rushing defensive end, but when was the last time a rookie defensive end not taken in the top 15 had a great rookie season? In a draft full of solid defensive ends, I don't see the Panthers selecting one first. 

Two positions on offense, however, stand out to me as opportunities for a young guy to step in and immediately start making plays... Tight End and Running Back. 

Last season the Panthers kept two rookie running backs, Cameron Artis-Payne and Brandon Wegher. Clearly they know an eventual Jonathan Stewart replacement is needed. Cameron Artis-Payne did see some playing time, but he had a tendency to put the ball on the ground. That fact alone could cause Dave Gettleman to seriously consider spending a first round pick on a running back. 

Oh look, RB Derrick Henry could possibly be available at 30, and he is the big running back that would compliment a shiftier Artis-Payne or Wegher. Derrick Henry has also visited with the Panthers, who are only one of three teams to bring him in.

Now, about tight end. Yes, Greg Olsen is an amazing player and his importance in the offense cannot be overstated. But opposite Olsen is Ed Dickson. While Dickson is a serviceable vet, he could very well lose his playing time to an outstanding rookie tight end.

Enter Hunter Henry, the most complete tight end in the draft and some say in years. Equally as skilled in catching and blocking, Hunter Henry could not fill the tight end position opposite Olsen more perfectly. 

In mock drafts, Hunter Henry is a late first round to early second round pick... and smack dab in the middle of that range are the Carolina Panthers. Bingo. 

In short, I like Hunter Henry or Derrick Henry in the first round, depending which is available. If both are... watch out. A trade up and double dip of Henry boys could happen, which would make Cam Newton especially happy.  

But just in case I have not convinced you yet that the Panthers will be going on the offense in round one, take a look at Dave Gettleman's draft pick history...

2013 - Defense

2014 - Offense

2015 - Defense 

2016 - Do I see a pattern here.... ?

 

 

 

 

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It will be Hunter Henry, I believe Seattle is going to pick up Derrick Henry before us but I'm fine with that. We use 2nd round to pick up Jonathan Bullard with a trade up.

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BPA is based on the TEAM's big board. Nothing else. A team's big board is designed with Need in mind with certain positions taking priority over others. Other teams do a better job at thise that others obviously. 

So if 2 players grade out similar, the one in the greater need will be higher.

I don't get why people say it's not BPA when that would probably be a QB. Thats would not be true because a QB would not be anywhere on our board expect for the late rounds.

 

As for a pick at 30, I totally disagree it will definitely be offense.

I don't see a Henry x2 being the pick unless all the 1st round edge guys are gone, which I think is unlikely. 

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First of all we have a 50/50 chance of it being defense or offense so not a big risk going out on a limb there. As for BPA, people think that means the general consensus BPA  from all positions as if they are all equal. Our board BPA is best player available for our team which has to include our needs and how we would use him. So clearly a quarterback will never be our BPA as long as Newton is performing at an MVP level. But Shaq was not at a position of need as much as Funchess was. But Gettleman saw his flexibility to be a 3 down linebacker, replacement for Davis, and could play the run and pass. So he becomes a great value more than a great need. 

I think a running back or tight end make sense but I also think that there are defensive players that if they drop will be snatched as well. He loves his hog mollies as well and while you can pick up a RB or TE in free agency, finding an OT or DE is much harder and more expensive. And knowing Gettleman, that is a big concern as well.

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