TOP 300 Draft Prospects: NFL.com grades & projected round, BY POSITION. (color-coded "cheat sheets")

[KB_fan]

ROUND 2 (into early Round 3):

[KB_fan]

ROUND 3  (& Early Round 4):

[KB_fan]

ROUND 4 (into Round 5):

[stirs]

Appreciate all the efforts KB

Less than 4 weeks, and counting

[KB_fan]

Here's a summary table which shows both the number and % of players at each position, by projected round:

In the top table, you see such facts / patterns as:

• There are 0 centers with round 1 grades, and 0 safeties with round 1 grades, but 8 DTs with round 1 grades and 6 DEs.
• There are 11 WRs (of 31 total with grades above 5.1) with round 4 grades.
• There are 15 CBs (of 29 with grades above 5.1) with round 3 and 4 grades.

In the bottom table, you see what percentage of the players at each position received grades for various rounds.  The boxes drawn around certain sections are meant to show where the top 50% of each position falls in terms of draft grades.

• Thus for Centers, the top 50% grades into round 3.  For OTs, however, the top 50% of the OTs have grades in Round 1 & 2 - the most "top heavy" position, while ILBs are the most bottom-heavy position.  70% of the ILBs have round 5 or 6 grades.

• The yellow-shaded square in the bottom table shows where the highest concentration of players at a given position can be found.  Thus 50% of the draft's top TEs have grades that equate to round 6!  31% of the top corners have grades of about round 3.  30% of the DEs have round 1 grades.

[KB_fan]

Let me follow up the table above by doing the math (cumulative totals) for people.  IF players are drafted truly "BPA" according to their grades at NFL.com, this is the cumulative percentage of the decent players for each position that would be gone (roughly) by the end of each round. 

(yellow shading indicates in which round we hit the 50% threshold where at least half of the top prospects should be gone, based on their grades)

So a few takeaways:  If the draft were to roughly follow the grade values assigned at NFL.com, 

Among the 237 prospects graded 5.2 or better:

• By end of round 1:   30% of DTs gone / 25% of DEs gone / 23% of OTs gone.  BUT only 7% of CBs and 6% of OGs.

• By end of round 2:  More than half (54%) of the top OTs will likely be gone; 44% of the DTs; 37% of OLBs;  33% of DEs.

• Round 3 is where most of the Centers, OGs, RBs, CBs and Safeties are found.  Nearly 2/3rds of the solid Centers, OTs and DTs should be gone by the end of this round - BUT because this is a weak WR class, only 1/3 of the WRs may have come off the board, because 70% of the WRs grade between rounds 4-6.

• For most positions, 65% - 80% of the top-graded players at that position will be gone by the end of round 4.  But there are a few exceptions - positions that are "bottom-heavy" in this draft:  ILB, TE, OLB, S, the most obviously so.  This could cause a run on the best players at these positions early on.  For teams with a big need for a high quality starting ILB, TE, or S, pickings are VERY VERY slim - 2 or 3 players with round 1 or 2 grades at each position.  But for teams mostly wanting depth, there should be some decent value at these positions in rounds 4 - 6.

• One thing to keep in mind:  the number of players for positions varies.  (6 centers graded 5.2 or better versus 31 WRs graded 5.2 or better.)  For positions with very few players in the draft, the draft grades may not mean much if there are needy teams.  With only 1 center receiving a grade typical of rounds 1 or 2, a needy team might reach for a center with a round 3 draft grade in round 1.... so for the "rarer" positions, the draft grades may be less likely to be respected.

 

I'm sure this data would make more sense in graphic form instead of a table.  But the table is the foundation for a graph.... maybe later in the week I'll have some pretty pictures / graphs for y'all.

 

[DaCityKats]

this is great work KB.

[Ken]

You have to be some kind of data analyst professionally!

 

Great stuff.

[jdpanther5]

Yeah, amazing work here. I'd be interested to see this data across a few different boards. Not to give you more work or anything, it's just that some of the grades themselves are a little surprising. Well, on the offensive end anyway.

Like, I've never seen OT Clark above Decker and Spriggs, RB Jordan Howard anywhere near the first, or Will Fuller as the top receiver. A couple guys listed here as guards, Ifedi and Martin, are usually categorized as a tackle and center, respectively. Although the defensive rankings seem fairly in line with the consensus.

Perhaps adding boards from more sources would give us a stronger list? Not to take away anything, it's fantastically thorough and - for someone who's always ranking prospects by position - a great resource. 

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, jdpanther5 said:

Perhaps adding boards from more sources would give us a stronger list? Not to take away anything, it's fantastically thorough and - for someone who's always ranking prospects by position - a great resource. 

Thanks JD.  I do intend to pull together a consensus list using various big boards for at least some of the key positions.  For this comparison it was easiest to work with the list at NFL.com since it has specific grades, it made it easier to identify & compare similarly valued players, not just the analyst's ranking.

I notice some of the grades have shifted quite a bit in the past 3 weeks.  I was surprised as well by some of the grades & rankings... some fairly big changes in the late first / early second from a month ago when i also did a lot of playing around with draft boards.

Open to suggestions of what other boards to use.  The ones at Fanspeak (incl. Fanspeak, Draftek, CBS, Miller, Walter, Consensus..... etc)  are pretty easily accessible, but I don't know how solid they are. 

Do analysts like Daniel Jeremiah publish a full big board?  I'd love to find one from him or other well-respected draft analysts.

[jdpanther5]

50 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

 

Open to suggestions of what other boards to use.  The ones at Fanspeak (incl. Fanspeak, Draftek, CBS, Miller, Walter, Consensus..... etc)  are pretty easily accessible, but I don't know how solid they are. 

Do analysts like Daniel Jeremiah publish a full big board?  I'd love to find one from him or other well-respected draft analysts.

Jeremiah would be my top choice, however I haven't seen him do anything more than a top 50. He obviously has a ratings system, and discusses it on his podcasts, but I don't think he publicly releases his grades. Pretty much all the NFL.com guys just do top 50 lists and first round mocks. 

Another one that comes to mind is the ESPN/Scouts Inc. big board, which actually does assign a numeric value to each player. However, it also hides behind the insider pay wall. 

I think you've mentioned all the other top boards. 

[KB_fan]

One last series of tables from me for the time being.  (I've got a lot of work ahead of me today & tomorrow, so I may go silent for a bit the next few days)

Based on the NFL.com grades, should those grades be roughly accurate in terms of how the draft order shakes out, here are the types / ranges of players who could be BPA when we pick in rounds 1 - 3.  (For the later rounds, it's not really worth looking at because by then players will fall or positions will have been reached for... it's too hard to predict).

 

ROUND 1:

Our pick is at #30  Looking at the range of 5 players above & below... there's a GREAT set of choices.  Butler, Ogbah. Bullard.   And hey Ridgeway's player comparison on NFL.com is Kawaan Short!  A "new Kawaan" to back up the original?  Yes please!  

Seems like DE/DT is the obvious way to go in this round, but I'd be also ok  with us "reaching" a bit for Le'Raven Clark.  His write up sounds promising (haven't watched any film though), and most of the good OTs will be off the board in round 1 or 2, so an OT in round 1 would make sense since there should still be quite a few decent DE/DTs available in later rounds. [Note however that our F.O. seems to have an eye on several potential later round OTs - Haeg, Beavers, Shell, so I think a 1st round OT pick is not very likely.  I think DG typically feels he can get good Oline value in later rounds, while the elite pass rushers will be GONE after round 1]

And I also am open to Corey Coleman or Derrick Henry if for some reason our F.O. wants to prioritize offense in round 1.  I trust their judgement.  No complaints at all if 5 or 6 of this group of players is on the board!  It would be a VERY tough choice!

 

ROUND 2:

Our pick is at #62,  My favorite choices here are:  Karl Joseph, Austin Hooper, or Shalique Calhoun.  Should we want a Center to groom behind Kalil, Ryan Kelly looks like a very nice prospect as well.  (Not sure he'll really be on the board when we pick, however.   I think he'll go considerably higher in round 2.  I think Spriggs might be gone already too.  There aren't so many OTs in the top rounds... think they'll fly off the board pretty quickly.)

 

ROUND 3:

Our pick is at #93.  This seems the round for a CB!!    Would be VERY happy with Harlan Miller here.  We've met with Cyrus Jones.  I'm a bit skeptical, but maybe the team sees something in him....   "DHC" the safety from William & Mary also looks like a potentially exciting prospect also.

 

All in all, I quite like these potential options in rounds 1 - 3.  Not bad for picking at #31.  I have full confidence Gettleman will find us some great players & values even at the end of each round should he choose not to trade up this year.

[manu4t]

Purely as an experiment (I am not drawing any hard conclusions from it but thought it would be interesting, and it was) I used your (KB_Fan) sheets and ran the information through the FanSpeak simulator (using the Walter Football rankings although since I am going off yours it didnt really matter on that) and ran 50 draft simulations. In order to keep things consistent I did not trade up or down while doing this in order to get a perspective on how things would break while keeping a baseline for us. 

Here are some of the interesting metrics from it - 

1.  More than 50% of the time someone tumbled down the board to us at 30 because of teams grabbing QBs and LBs earlier than I would have thought.  The guys who I think we have top 15 grades on fell the most (in no discernable order):

Ryan Kelly (I think DG has a first rd grade on him based on his comments yesterday, but I know you have him in the second, this is the only guy I broke from your rankings on)

Conklin (I was surpised how many times he fell to 30, it was well north of 50%)

Reed (This surprised me even more, but it was not more than 50%, probably along the lines of 25% of the time).

2.  90% of the time in the simulations, Su'a Cravens, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and Karl Joseph were available in rd 2 when we picked. 75% of the time Sterling Shephard was available.  

Derrick Henry was not available when we picked except for 5 times, however, he almost always (90%) was on the Board in the second rd in the first 10 picks (so if we want him we may pass him first rd then trade up for him, based on this).

3. 3rd rd  - I was always able to grab either Ph Cooper, Willie Henry, or Zack Sanchez in that round every time.  La'Raven Clark dropped almost 40% of the time, which really surprised me.  Most of these guys seemed to be very high interest guys for us at positions DG is probably targeting, all things being equal, and I give more weight (no pun intended) to the big guys for reasons that are well known if you know how DG drafts.

4. 4th rd - 2 RBs we looked at, Alex Collins and CJ Prosise, were available 85% of the time.  So was Kenyan Drake, who also fell to the 5th rd more than 50% of the time and actually fell to the 7th rd 3-4 times. Joe Haeg, who I think DG really likes based on the intangibles and scouting, was almost always there. Based on this and who we have looked at, if we pass on Henry and dont trade up or down, Rd 4 and onwards could be a place we target a RB.  Again, this is based purely on me running this model using the information KB provided.  Also Harlan Miller was almost always available here, as was Cyrus Jones.  Given DG does not value the DB position as much, this might also be where he pulls the trigger on a CB.  Weatherly, who I think is a sleeper candidate for us at DE if we dont grab one early, was available here about 70% of the time.  Finally, Ph Cooper was available here 30 or more % of the time.

5. 5th rd - This was an interesting rd, many of the guys we have shown some interest in were gone (Judon, Worley, Weatherly being probably the ones I was looking for at the pick).  Harlan Miller dropped to this round 13 times.  Kevin Byard was usually the pick here for me (85% of the time) when all the grades were otherwise equal because we have shown such interest in him.  Weatherly fell to our spot about 20% of the time, J. Kearse a little more than that.

I wasnt really all that interested in the 7th rd because I dont think DG puts much effort into that level, but almost every time just to wrap up I took Pearce Slater (80%) because he is a big guy that might fit the hog mollie mantra.

What I gathered from my experiment is as follows, and again, I assume we dont move up or down in the first:

1.  When we pick in the first rd there may be a greater chance of us taking someone not foreseen on here because of the amount of trading going on both before and during the draft.  I would no longer be surprised if we took Kelly at C, Conklin if he is there, or we may have a DT fall to us we did not anticipate. 

2.  If given the right offer we may have to consider moving back and taking a chance we still get a first rd guy in the second, and then collect more talent in that round.  The tradeoff is obviously the loss of the 5th yr option, so the offer to trade would have to be really good, as in probably a high second and third rd pick or next years first rdr, a second and a mid-rd future pick, etc. Having said that, there were a lot of guys I think DG may have first rd grades on who fell right into the second and a few of them beyond the 10th pick in the second sometimes.

3.  Given #2, I still think there is a decent chance we move up in the second using our (possible) extra pick in the 3rd rd next year (I am assuming a 3rd rd comp pick for Norman and also that he is not coming back to us) to grab someone who falls and could be had as a first rd talent in the early second rd.  

4. We have invested a fair amount of time in meeting with and evaluating mid-round talents such as Byard, Miller, Kenyan Drake, etc.  I also would not be surprised if we trade up or trade out of a lower round to move up in the 4th or even third to grab someone, or, we add another pick in one of those rounds.

5.  DE and DT is so deep that (based on this experiment) DG may wait until the second then move up to grab one.  O line may become more of an option than we think in the first if other teams want to move up for a QB of LB.  In most of the ones I ran at least one guy we had a 1st rd profile on from the tables above fell (Ogbah and Dodd did more than I would have thought).

6.  Even though I did not pull the trigger on it, almost every time there was an offer to trade up to our spot in the first, when I declined at least 2/3 of the time DEN took a QB. I think CAR is sitting on a pick that really could be a good trade target for teams who look at either Lynch or Hackenburg as possible starters but who might not be on the Board in the second.

Anyway, I am sharing all of this mainly just for interest and also I had some time to kill at the office so I ran the numbers, I dont pretend to be a football scout and I am using the data above along with some draft reports I have (and also using the DG comments and also his historical draft preferences).  Just sharing and please feel free to draw your own conclusions (or not), granted there are some assumptions here that may or may not be justified (like our evaluations are the same as DGs) but I tried to incorporate the DG leans towards big guys plus the BPA philosophy into his tendencies of position emphasis when all grades are equal on players available when we pick.  Finally, I am not advocating for anyone to be a pick at any point, so this isnt to start a debate there.

[MV%doe]

How I imagine KB_fan